中信建投（601066）研报称，今年三季度以来，中国市场光纤价格持续上涨，反映需求向好、整体供应 偏紧。海外需求旺盛，出口表现强劲，反映了全球光纤光缆市场的旺盛需求。中信建投认为，经历了 2019年供需失衡，价格大跌，此次厂商扩产会相对理性，另外光棒等环节扩产周期较长。此轮需求回暖 叠加价格上涨，行业龙头公司可能盈利与估值双提升。 ...

风险提示：以上产品由基金管理人发行与管理，代销机构不承担产品的投资、兑付和风险管理责任。投 资人应当认真阅读《基金合同》、《招募说明书》、《基金产品资料概要》等基金法律文件，了解基金 的风险收益特征，选择与自身风险承受能力相适应的产品。基金过往业绩并不预示其未来表现，基金投 资须谨慎！销售机构（包括基金管理人直销机构和其他销售机构）根据相关法律法规对本基金进行风险 评价，投资者应及时关注基金管理人出具的适当性意见，各销售机构关于适当性的意见不必然一致，且 基金销售机构所出具的基金产品风险等级评价结果不得低于基金管理人作出的风险等级评价结果。基金 合同中关于基金风险收益特征与基金风险等级因考虑因素不同而存在差异。投资者应了解基金的风险收 益情况，结合自身投资目的、期限、投资经验及风险承受能力谨慎选择基金产品并自行承担风险。中国 证监会对上述基金的注册，并不表明其对上述基金的投资价值、市场前景和收益做出实质性判断或保 证。基金投资须谨慎。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 太平洋证券指出，养猪行业产能去化动力持续增强，去化速度或加快。截至10月末，全国能繁母猪存栏 3990万头，较上月末少45万头。行业连续 ...

Core Viewpoint - Sweden's economy continues to show signs of contraction in October, with a notable structural divergence as industrial orders experience significant growth despite overall economic weakness [1][3]. Economic Indicators - October GDP decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, following a 0.1% decline in September, marking the fifth instance of monthly negative GDP this year [1]. - Year-on-year, October GDP grew by 2.1%, a slowdown from the revised 2.8% in September [1]. Industrial Orders - Total industrial orders in October increased by 12.1% year-on-year, up from a revised 6.7% in the previous month [1]. - Domestic orders surged by 23.2%, compared to a mere 2.1% growth in September, while foreign orders saw a slowdown to 4.6% from 10.4% [1]. Sector Performance - The transportation equipment sector saw a remarkable order increase of 60.6%, and capital goods orders rose by 36.7%, driving overall order growth [1]. - Conversely, orders in the coal and refined petroleum products sector fell by 22.1%, and electrical equipment manufacturing orders decreased by 10.1% [1]. Industrial Output - Seasonally adjusted, industrial orders rose by 4.7% month-on-month, with a cumulative increase of 6.4% year-to-date compared to the same period in 2024 [2]. - Industrial output grew by only 5.9% year-on-year in October, significantly lower than the revised 14.6% in September [2]. - Key manufacturing sectors showed continued weakness, with food, beverage, and tobacco production down by 3.7%, textiles and clothing down by 5.3%, and wood products down by 2.4% [2]. Consumer Spending - Household spending decreased by 0.9% month-on-month in October, reversing the 0.5% growth seen in September [3]. - Year-on-year, household consumption grew by 2.3%, down from the revised 3.6% in September [3]. - Spending in transportation, retail, and motor services fell by 2.4%, while entertainment and cultural services saw a 0.9% decline [3]. Overall Economic Outlook - The Swedish economy is characterized by a complex situation of "demand recovery, production lag, and weak consumption" in October [3]. - The surge in domestic orders suggests potential future production recovery, but the current simultaneous decline in output and consumption indicates an unstable economic recovery foundation [3].

万联证券发布研报称，根据洛图科技数据，11月面板大厂LCDTV面板报价有所上涨，预计月末结算价 仍下跌，但跌幅有望环比收窄。需求端，明年迎来体育赛事催化，下游终端厂商有望提前备货，12月 TV面板价格有望止跌。在大尺寸显示面板需求增长推动下，整体面积需求有望保持强劲。展望后市， 伴随着高世代产线折旧逐步进入尾声，龙头企业盈利能力及现金流情况有望持续改善，建议关注中国内 地面板行业的龙头企业。 LCD面板厂稼动率维持较高水平，产线折旧压力减缓有望改善运营压力 根据洛图科技数据，2025年10月，全球大尺寸液晶电视面板出货量为20.6M片，同比增长8.0%，环比9 月下降4.8%。2025年下半年至今，LCD面板厂商产能利用率均维持在较高的水平，7-10月整体市场的出 货量均呈同比增长状态，增幅分布在5%-10%之间。此外，10.5代LCD工厂折旧期进入尾声，有望改善 企业运营压力，利于控产稳价策略的维持。 投资建议 未来LCD总出货量预计将趋于稳定，中国内地面板厂市场份额占据全球接近七成，基本掌握产业链话语 权，控产稳价策略有望维持。需求端迎来明年体育赛事的催化及长期电视面板大尺寸化的市场增量，产 业链盈利能力 ...

Group 1 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting to discuss the stabilization of growth in the cement industry, emphasizing the need to implement the "Cement Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" to enhance quality and efficiency [1] - The meeting highlighted the significant supply-demand imbalance in the cement industry, aiming for dynamic balance and industrial transformation while prohibiting new capacity and regulating existing capacity [1] - According to Everbright Securities, cement prices in East China have declined, with weak downstream demand observed before and after the National Day holiday, leading to an average shipment rate below 45% for major cement enterprises [1] Group 2 - Caitong Securities noted that the cement sector has a high dividend configuration logic, with expectations for demand recovery and price rebound, as current PE and PB ratios are at the bottom [2] - The cement industry has seen continuous strengthening of supply-side control measures, including the prohibition of new capacity and staggered production in northern regions, with production halts extending from 10 days to up to a month in some areas [2] - Future improvements in demand, particularly from real estate and infrastructure projects, are expected to enhance supply control capabilities, positively impacting prices and potentially restoring company profitability and valuations [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The polyester industry chain is weak due to the continuation of the China - US game. The supply - demand imbalance is prominent, and the market is affected by factors such as crude oil price fluctuations, production capacity changes, and demand trends [2][3][5]. - For the strategy, it is recommended to cautiously short - sell PX/PTA/PF/PR on rallies for hedging, long PF processing fees at low levels, and conduct reverse spreads on PX/PTA2601 - 2605 [5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Data - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced counter - measures against 5 US - related subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. on October 14, 2025, in response to the US 301 investigation on China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries [1]. Market Analysis - **Cost Side**: During the China - US trade war, the leaders of both sides will meet around the end of the month. After the National Day, China's import demand slowed down while US exports increased, and Middle - East exports also rose, leading to an oversupply situation. Crude oil prices dropped sharply due to the renewed tariff war threat from the US, but there were some signs of easing later [2]. - **PX**: China's PX load has recovered to a relatively high level. With the restart of overseas units, the overall PX operation rate has increased. The postponement of PX maintenance plans in the fourth quarter and capacity expansion of some units have weakened the PX supply - demand outlook in the fourth quarter [2][5]. - **TA**: The PTA spot processing fee has been repaired but is still suppressed. The inventory accumulation rate has narrowed in October - November due to more maintenance plans and postponed new - unit launches, but there is significant inventory accumulation pressure in December [3][5]. - **Demand**: The polyester operating rate is 91.5% (unchanged from the previous period). The demand for filament yarn improved before the National Day, but the increase in polyester load is limited, and the sustainability of demand improvement needs attention [3]. - **PF**: The spot production profit is 300 yuan/ton (up 36 yuan/ton from the previous period). The inventory of direct - spun polyester staple fiber has decreased to a low level, and the short - term supply - demand situation is better than that of raw materials [4]. - **PR**: The spot processing fee of polyester bottle - grade chips is 509 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan/ton from the previous period). The inventory of domestic polyester bottle - grade chip factories has increased, and the supply - demand pressure is large under the pressure of new - unit launches [4]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously short - sell PX/PTA/PF/PR on rallies for hedging [5]. - **Cross - Variety**: Long PF processing fees at low levels: PF2511 - 0.855PTA2601 - 0.332MEG2601 [6]. - **Cross - Period**: Conduct reverse spreads on PX/PTA2601 - 2605 [6]. Graphical Data - **Price and Basis**: Includes TA and PX contract price trends, basis, and cross - period spreads [10][11]. - **Upstream Profits and Spreads**: Covers PX processing fees, PTA spot processing fees, and South Korean xylene isomerization and disproportionation profits [17][20]. - **International Spreads and Import - Export Profits**: Involves toluene spreads between the US and Asia, toluene - naphtha spreads, and PTA export profits [25][27]. - **Upstream PX and PTA Operation**: Shows the operating rates of PX and PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan [28][31][33]. - **Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Presents the social inventory and warehouse receipts of PTA and PX [36][39][40]. - **Downstream Polyester Load**: Covers the production and sales of filament and staple fiber, polyester load, and the inventory days of filament factories [48][50][59]. - **PF Detailed Data**: Includes the load, inventory, and profit - related data of polyester staple fiber [68][74][80]. - **PR Fundamental Detailed Data**: Involves the load, inventory, and processing fees of polyester bottle - grade chips [90][96][98].

Group 1 - The electric equipment and new energy industry is experiencing structural prosperity, with continuous high growth in energy storage demand [1] - Penghui Energy ranks among the top three globally in small energy storage cell shipments, and solid-state battery technology has improved energy density to 320Wh/Kg [1] - The offshore wind power sector is expected to see further growth in new installed capacity due to favorable project bidding and construction trends in China starting from 2025, along with opportunities for whole machine exports driven by China-UK cooperation [1] Group 2 - The Mechanical ETF (516960) tracks a segmented mechanical index (000812), which selects listed companies in the engineering machinery and industrial automation sectors from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets [1] - The segmented mechanical index consists of companies with high market share and technological advantages, balancing growth and value, making it suitable for investors focusing on high-end manufacturing and industrial upgrading trends [1]

Core Insights - The profits of large-scale industrial enterprises in China have shown significant improvement due to macroeconomic policies, the advancement of a unified national market, and a low base effect from the previous year [1][2] Group 1: Profit Improvement - From January to August, the profits of large-scale industrial enterprises shifted from a year-on-year decline of 1.7% in July to a growth of 0.9% [1] - In August alone, profits experienced a notable increase of 20.4%, reversing a 1.5% decline in July [1] - The revenue of large-scale industrial enterprises grew by 2.3% year-on-year from January to August, maintaining stability [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - The manufacturing sector saw a profit increase of 7.4% from January to August, accelerating by 2.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [2] - The electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector grew by 9.4%, an increase of 5.5 percentage points [2] - The mining sector experienced a decline of 30.6%, but the rate of decline narrowed by 1.0 percentage point [2] Group 3: Industry Contributions - The equipment manufacturing sector was a significant contributor, with profits growing by 7.2% from January to August, accounting for a 2.5 percentage point increase in overall industrial profits [2] - In the raw materials manufacturing sector, profits increased by 22.1%, accelerating by 10.0 percentage points compared to the previous month [3] - The consumer goods manufacturing sector transitioned from a 2.2% decline to a 1.4% profit growth, driven by stable demand and policies aimed at boosting consumption [3] Group 4: Cost and Profitability - In August, the cost per hundred yuan of revenue for large-scale industrial enterprises decreased by 0.20 yuan year-on-year, marking the first decline since July 2024 [3] - The profit margin for large-scale industrial enterprises in August was 5.83%, an increase of 0.90 percentage points year-on-year [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the demand for rebar starts to gradually recover with the arrival of the peak season, and rebar inventory begins to decline slightly. Attention should be paid to whether there are signs of marginal improvement in delivery warrants and foreign capital positions to support the stabilization and rebound of the futures market [5][8]. - The short - term import iron ore shipment volume shows a significant rebound, the arrival volume drops slightly, and port inventory still faces certain pressure. The demand side sees a slight increase in daily molten iron output and a simultaneous rebound in steel mill daily consumption. It is expected that the iron ore futures market will maintain a relatively strong consolidation trend [9]. 3. Summary by Sections Rebar - **Futures**: This week, the rebar 01 contract maintained a relatively strong operation driven by the increase in long - position main force positions. As of Friday, it closed at 3172 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan from last week, with a weekly increase of 1.44% [5]. - **Spot**: The mainstream rebar prices in various regions started to rise slightly this week, and overall transactions improved slightly. As of Friday, the national average rebar price rose 24 yuan to 3299 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 domestic steel mills was 83.98%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.15% and a year - on - year increase of 5.75%. The rebar weekly output decreased by 5.48 tons to 206.45 tons week - on - week, still at a low level year - on - year [5]. - **Demand**: This week, both building material trading volume and rebar apparent consumption increased slightly. The 5 - day average building material trading volume increased by 0.45 tons to 10.70 tons week - on - week, and rebar apparent consumption increased by 11.96 tons to 210.03 tons week - on - week [8]. - **Inventory**: This week, the inventory of five major steel products continued to accumulate slightly, while rebar inventory started to decline slightly. As of Friday, the total rebar inventory decreased by 3.58 tons to 650.28 tons [8]. - **Basis**: As of Friday, the lowest warehouse receipt quote for rebar in Shanghai was 3260 yuan/ton, with a premium of 88 yuan over the rebar 01 contract, a contraction of 5 yuan from last week [8]. Iron Ore - **Futures**: This week, the iron ore 01 contract maintained a relatively strong consolidation trend driven by the increase in long - position main force positions. As of Friday, it closed at 807.5 yuan/ton, up 8.0 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly increase of 1.0% [8]. - **Spot**: This week, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties continued to rise slightly, and the prices of domestic iron ore concentrates started to rise steadily. Overall transactions were average [8]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: As of the 15th, the total shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2977.8 million tons, an increase of 648.2 million tons week - on - week. The arrival volume of 45 ports was 2362.3 million tons, a decrease of 85.7 million tons week - on - week [9]. - **Demand**: Currently, the daily average ore removal volume of 45 ports is 339.17 million tons, an increase of 7.89 million tons week - on - week. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 241.02 million tons, an increase of 0.47 million tons from last week [9]. - **Inventory**: As of the 19th, the iron ore inventory of 45 ports continued to accumulate slightly, currently at 13801.08 million tons, a decrease of 48.39 million tons week - on - week [9]. - **Basis**: As of Friday, the Newman powder at Rizhao Port, the optimal delivery product, was 844 yuan/ton, with a premium of 36 yuan over the iron ore 01 contract, a contraction of 1 yuan from last week [9].

Group 1: General Information - Report title: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: September 17, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Quotes - Futures market quotes: For plastic 2601, the opening price was 7232 yuan/ton, the closing price was 7234 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton (0.44%), with a trading volume of 25.6 lots and a decrease in positions by 30939 to 524036 lots; for PP2601, the closing price was 6970 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan (0.35%), with a decrease in positions by 34852 to 581302 lots [5] Group 3: Market Review and Outlook - Market performance: Futures opened higher and fluctuated, boosting market trading sentiment. Spot prices rose in some areas, and terminal buyers purchased raw materials as needed [6] - Supply situation: Upstream maintenance levels exceeded expectations, with more shutdown devices. Production capacity utilization and output declined. New PP production capacity from CNOOC Daxie Phase II brought supply pressure, and there were still second - line devices to be put into production in September [6] - Demand situation: The downstream was in the transition from the off - season to the peak season. The agricultural film industry entered the peak season, with the operating load rising but at a relatively low level compared to the same period. The overall demand was not fully released. The operating rate of PP downstream industries increased, and there was still room for demand recovery [6] - Cost situation: Due to the expected increase in crude oil supply and a weak medium - to - long - term fundamental outlook, cost support weakened [6] - Overall situation: The market was in a pattern of both supply and demand recovery. As low - price resources were gradually consumed, the price center stabilized and rebounded [6] Group 4: Industry News - Inventory: On September 16, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 670,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons (4.29%) from the previous working day, compared to 820,000 tons in the same period last year [7] - PE price: PE market prices rose in some areas. The LLDPE price in North China was 7140 - 7450 yuan/ton, in East China was 7230 - 7700 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7320 - 7750 yuan/ton [7] - Propylene price: The mainstream price of propylene in Shandong was 6530 - 6620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The demand support was weak, and the market transaction price was at the lower end [7] - PP price: PP market prices rose slightly in some areas. The mainstream price of North China drawstrings was 6740 - 6880 yuan/ton, in East China was 6720 - 6930 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6720 - 6930 yuan/ton [7][8]