Group 1 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting to discuss the stabilization of growth in the cement industry, emphasizing the need to implement the "Cement Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" to enhance quality and efficiency [1] - The meeting highlighted the significant supply-demand imbalance in the cement industry, aiming for dynamic balance and industrial transformation while prohibiting new capacity and regulating existing capacity [1] - According to Everbright Securities, cement prices in East China have declined, with weak downstream demand observed before and after the National Day holiday, leading to an average shipment rate below 45% for major cement enterprises [1] Group 2 - Caitong Securities noted that the cement sector has a high dividend configuration logic, with expectations for demand recovery and price rebound, as current PE and PB ratios are at the bottom [2] - The cement industry has seen continuous strengthening of supply-side control measures, including the prohibition of new capacity and staggered production in northern regions, with production halts extending from 10 days to up to a month in some areas [2] - Future improvements in demand, particularly from real estate and infrastructure projects, are expected to enhance supply control capabilities, positively impacting prices and potentially restoring company profitability and valuations [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The polyester industry chain is weak due to the continuation of the China - US game. The supply - demand imbalance is prominent, and the market is affected by factors such as crude oil price fluctuations, production capacity changes, and demand trends [2][3][5]. - For the strategy, it is recommended to cautiously short - sell PX/PTA/PF/PR on rallies for hedging, long PF processing fees at low levels, and conduct reverse spreads on PX/PTA2601 - 2605 [5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Data - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced counter - measures against 5 US - related subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. on October 14, 2025, in response to the US 301 investigation on China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries [1]. Market Analysis - **Cost Side**: During the China - US trade war, the leaders of both sides will meet around the end of the month. After the National Day, China's import demand slowed down while US exports increased, and Middle - East exports also rose, leading to an oversupply situation. Crude oil prices dropped sharply due to the renewed tariff war threat from the US, but there were some signs of easing later [2]. - **PX**: China's PX load has recovered to a relatively high level. With the restart of overseas units, the overall PX operation rate has increased. The postponement of PX maintenance plans in the fourth quarter and capacity expansion of some units have weakened the PX supply - demand outlook in the fourth quarter [2][5]. - **TA**: The PTA spot processing fee has been repaired but is still suppressed. The inventory accumulation rate has narrowed in October - November due to more maintenance plans and postponed new - unit launches, but there is significant inventory accumulation pressure in December [3][5]. - **Demand**: The polyester operating rate is 91.5% (unchanged from the previous period). The demand for filament yarn improved before the National Day, but the increase in polyester load is limited, and the sustainability of demand improvement needs attention [3]. - **PF**: The spot production profit is 300 yuan/ton (up 36 yuan/ton from the previous period). The inventory of direct - spun polyester staple fiber has decreased to a low level, and the short - term supply - demand situation is better than that of raw materials [4]. - **PR**: The spot processing fee of polyester bottle - grade chips is 509 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan/ton from the previous period). The inventory of domestic polyester bottle - grade chip factories has increased, and the supply - demand pressure is large under the pressure of new - unit launches [4]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously short - sell PX/PTA/PF/PR on rallies for hedging [5]. - **Cross - Variety**: Long PF processing fees at low levels: PF2511 - 0.855PTA2601 - 0.332MEG2601 [6]. - **Cross - Period**: Conduct reverse spreads on PX/PTA2601 - 2605 [6]. Graphical Data - **Price and Basis**: Includes TA and PX contract price trends, basis, and cross - period spreads [10][11]. - **Upstream Profits and Spreads**: Covers PX processing fees, PTA spot processing fees, and South Korean xylene isomerization and disproportionation profits [17][20]. - **International Spreads and Import - Export Profits**: Involves toluene spreads between the US and Asia, toluene - naphtha spreads, and PTA export profits [25][27]. - **Upstream PX and PTA Operation**: Shows the operating rates of PX and PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan [28][31][33]. - **Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Presents the social inventory and warehouse receipts of PTA and PX [36][39][40]. - **Downstream Polyester Load**: Covers the production and sales of filament and staple fiber, polyester load, and the inventory days of filament factories [48][50][59]. - **PF Detailed Data**: Includes the load, inventory, and profit - related data of polyester staple fiber [68][74][80]. - **PR Fundamental Detailed Data**: Involves the load, inventory, and processing fees of polyester bottle - grade chips [90][96][98].

Group 1 - The electric equipment and new energy industry is experiencing structural prosperity, with continuous high growth in energy storage demand [1] - Penghui Energy ranks among the top three globally in small energy storage cell shipments, and solid-state battery technology has improved energy density to 320Wh/Kg [1] - The offshore wind power sector is expected to see further growth in new installed capacity due to favorable project bidding and construction trends in China starting from 2025, along with opportunities for whole machine exports driven by China-UK cooperation [1] Group 2 - The Mechanical ETF (516960) tracks a segmented mechanical index (000812), which selects listed companies in the engineering machinery and industrial automation sectors from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets [1] - The segmented mechanical index consists of companies with high market share and technological advantages, balancing growth and value, making it suitable for investors focusing on high-end manufacturing and industrial upgrading trends [1]

Core Insights - The profits of large-scale industrial enterprises in China have shown significant improvement due to macroeconomic policies, the advancement of a unified national market, and a low base effect from the previous year [1][2] Group 1: Profit Improvement - From January to August, the profits of large-scale industrial enterprises shifted from a year-on-year decline of 1.7% in July to a growth of 0.9% [1] - In August alone, profits experienced a notable increase of 20.4%, reversing a 1.5% decline in July [1] - The revenue of large-scale industrial enterprises grew by 2.3% year-on-year from January to August, maintaining stability [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - The manufacturing sector saw a profit increase of 7.4% from January to August, accelerating by 2.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [2] - The electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector grew by 9.4%, an increase of 5.5 percentage points [2] - The mining sector experienced a decline of 30.6%, but the rate of decline narrowed by 1.0 percentage point [2] Group 3: Industry Contributions - The equipment manufacturing sector was a significant contributor, with profits growing by 7.2% from January to August, accounting for a 2.5 percentage point increase in overall industrial profits [2] - In the raw materials manufacturing sector, profits increased by 22.1%, accelerating by 10.0 percentage points compared to the previous month [3] - The consumer goods manufacturing sector transitioned from a 2.2% decline to a 1.4% profit growth, driven by stable demand and policies aimed at boosting consumption [3] Group 4: Cost and Profitability - In August, the cost per hundred yuan of revenue for large-scale industrial enterprises decreased by 0.20 yuan year-on-year, marking the first decline since July 2024 [3] - The profit margin for large-scale industrial enterprises in August was 5.83%, an increase of 0.90 percentage points year-on-year [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the demand for rebar starts to gradually recover with the arrival of the peak season, and rebar inventory begins to decline slightly. Attention should be paid to whether there are signs of marginal improvement in delivery warrants and foreign capital positions to support the stabilization and rebound of the futures market [5][8]. - The short - term import iron ore shipment volume shows a significant rebound, the arrival volume drops slightly, and port inventory still faces certain pressure. The demand side sees a slight increase in daily molten iron output and a simultaneous rebound in steel mill daily consumption. It is expected that the iron ore futures market will maintain a relatively strong consolidation trend [9]. 3. Summary by Sections Rebar - **Futures**: This week, the rebar 01 contract maintained a relatively strong operation driven by the increase in long - position main force positions. As of Friday, it closed at 3172 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan from last week, with a weekly increase of 1.44% [5]. - **Spot**: The mainstream rebar prices in various regions started to rise slightly this week, and overall transactions improved slightly. As of Friday, the national average rebar price rose 24 yuan to 3299 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 domestic steel mills was 83.98%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.15% and a year - on - year increase of 5.75%. The rebar weekly output decreased by 5.48 tons to 206.45 tons week - on - week, still at a low level year - on - year [5]. - **Demand**: This week, both building material trading volume and rebar apparent consumption increased slightly. The 5 - day average building material trading volume increased by 0.45 tons to 10.70 tons week - on - week, and rebar apparent consumption increased by 11.96 tons to 210.03 tons week - on - week [8]. - **Inventory**: This week, the inventory of five major steel products continued to accumulate slightly, while rebar inventory started to decline slightly. As of Friday, the total rebar inventory decreased by 3.58 tons to 650.28 tons [8]. - **Basis**: As of Friday, the lowest warehouse receipt quote for rebar in Shanghai was 3260 yuan/ton, with a premium of 88 yuan over the rebar 01 contract, a contraction of 5 yuan from last week [8]. Iron Ore - **Futures**: This week, the iron ore 01 contract maintained a relatively strong consolidation trend driven by the increase in long - position main force positions. As of Friday, it closed at 807.5 yuan/ton, up 8.0 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly increase of 1.0% [8]. - **Spot**: This week, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties continued to rise slightly, and the prices of domestic iron ore concentrates started to rise steadily. Overall transactions were average [8]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: As of the 15th, the total shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2977.8 million tons, an increase of 648.2 million tons week - on - week. The arrival volume of 45 ports was 2362.3 million tons, a decrease of 85.7 million tons week - on - week [9]. - **Demand**: Currently, the daily average ore removal volume of 45 ports is 339.17 million tons, an increase of 7.89 million tons week - on - week. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 241.02 million tons, an increase of 0.47 million tons from last week [9]. - **Inventory**: As of the 19th, the iron ore inventory of 45 ports continued to accumulate slightly, currently at 13801.08 million tons, a decrease of 48.39 million tons week - on - week [9]. - **Basis**: As of Friday, the Newman powder at Rizhao Port, the optimal delivery product, was 844 yuan/ton, with a premium of 36 yuan over the iron ore 01 contract, a contraction of 1 yuan from last week [9].

Group 1: General Information - Report title: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: September 17, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Quotes - Futures market quotes: For plastic 2601, the opening price was 7232 yuan/ton, the closing price was 7234 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton (0.44%), with a trading volume of 25.6 lots and a decrease in positions by 30939 to 524036 lots; for PP2601, the closing price was 6970 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan (0.35%), with a decrease in positions by 34852 to 581302 lots [5] Group 3: Market Review and Outlook - Market performance: Futures opened higher and fluctuated, boosting market trading sentiment. Spot prices rose in some areas, and terminal buyers purchased raw materials as needed [6] - Supply situation: Upstream maintenance levels exceeded expectations, with more shutdown devices. Production capacity utilization and output declined. New PP production capacity from CNOOC Daxie Phase II brought supply pressure, and there were still second - line devices to be put into production in September [6] - Demand situation: The downstream was in the transition from the off - season to the peak season. The agricultural film industry entered the peak season, with the operating load rising but at a relatively low level compared to the same period. The overall demand was not fully released. The operating rate of PP downstream industries increased, and there was still room for demand recovery [6] - Cost situation: Due to the expected increase in crude oil supply and a weak medium - to - long - term fundamental outlook, cost support weakened [6] - Overall situation: The market was in a pattern of both supply and demand recovery. As low - price resources were gradually consumed, the price center stabilized and rebounded [6] Group 4: Industry News - Inventory: On September 16, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 670,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons (4.29%) from the previous working day, compared to 820,000 tons in the same period last year [7] - PE price: PE market prices rose in some areas. The LLDPE price in North China was 7140 - 7450 yuan/ton, in East China was 7230 - 7700 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7320 - 7750 yuan/ton [7] - Propylene price: The mainstream price of propylene in Shandong was 6530 - 6620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The demand support was weak, and the market transaction price was at the lower end [7] - PP price: PP market prices rose slightly in some areas. The mainstream price of North China drawstrings was 6740 - 6880 yuan/ton, in East China was 6720 - 6930 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6720 - 6930 yuan/ton [7][8]

Group 1 - The consumption building materials industry leaders are expected to benefit from improved demand due to anticipated policy support and enhanced channel layout and product expansion [1] - In the cement sector, stricter supply controls are expected to ease supply-demand conflicts, leading to a price increase and potential profit recovery for regional leaders [1] - The fiberglass industry is projected to benefit from demand recovery driven by emerging markets, with expectations for price increases in mid-to-high-end products and overall performance recovery for leading companies [1] Group 2 - In the glass sector, the anticipated increase in cold repair production lines is expected to gradually optimize the supply-demand landscape [1]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed positive performance with the Shenzhen Composite Index and the ChiNext Index both rising over 1%, while the Shanghai Composite Index also closed in the green. The trading volume increased to 1.56 trillion, nearly 100 billion more than the previous day, indicating genuine capital inflow into the market [1]. Sector Performance - The pharmaceutical sector was particularly strong, with nearly ten stocks hitting the daily limit, including Chengdu Xian Dao and Xin Li Tai. This upward trend was not sudden, as there had been signs of support for innovative drugs from policies in the days prior, attracting capital to this sector based on solid logic rather than speculation [3]. - The printed circuit board (PCB) sector also performed well, with stocks like Man Kun Technology and Peng Ding Holdings reaching their daily limits. The strength in this sector is attributed to the recovery in demand from downstream consumer electronics and new energy, leading to increased orders and improved earnings expectations [3]. - The CPO sector showed significant gains, with stocks like Xin Yi Sheng rising over 8% and Jian Qiao Technology hitting the daily limit. This sector is closely related to AI computing power and has become active again as market sentiment improved, indicating ongoing investor interest in technology growth stocks [3]. - Conversely, the precious metals sector experienced a decline, with Shandong Gold falling over 2%. This shift can be understood as a normal rotation in the market, where increased risk appetite leads funds to move away from defensive assets like precious metals towards more elastic sectors [3]. Investment Insights - The current market dynamics reflect a logical underpinning rather than random speculation, with clear reasons for the rises in the pharmaceutical, PCB, and CPO sectors. For long-term investors, focusing on companies with solid earnings expectations and following capital flows is deemed more reliable than chasing hot trends [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The egg futures market experienced intensified long - short battles last week. High egg - laying hen存栏 and adverse weather conditions put significant pressure on egg prices, but an increase in the number of culled chickens and rising procurement demand for cold - storage eggs provided support. In the short term, the market may continue to fluctuate. With the boost of the consumption peak season in the third quarter, egg prices are expected to have a phased recovery, but the annual price peak may be lower than that of last year [8][59]. 3. Section - by - Section Summary 3.1. Trend Review - **Futures Price**: The main contract of egg futures, JD2508, fluctuated last week. As of last Friday, it closed at 3,582 yuan per 500 kilograms, with a total trading volume of 125,885 lots, an open interest of 184,136 lots, and a weekly increase of 1.1% [5][12]. - **Spot Price**: The average price of eggs in the main producing areas last week was 2.70 yuan per catty, a week - on - week decrease of 6.25%; in the main consuming areas, it was 2.76 yuan per catty, a week - on - week decrease of 2.47%. The price in the main producing areas first declined and then stabilized, while that in the main consuming areas showed a weakening trend [7][16]. - **Chick Price**: The chick price was generally weak last week. The average price of commercial - generation chicks in key national regions was 3.88 yuan per chick, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 yuan per chick, a decrease of 0.51%, and a year - on - year increase of 31.08%. The utilization rate of hatching eggs was about 60% - 80% [22]. - **Old Hen Price**: The price of old hens fluctuated strongly last week. The average price of old hens in representative markets in key producing areas was 4.65 yuan per catty, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.65% [26]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side** - **Egg - laying Hen存栏**: As of June, the national egg - laying hen存栏 was about 1.27 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.75%. The supply was abundant, and the contradiction between supply and demand would be further intensified [31]. - **Shipping Volume in Producing Areas**: The shipping volume in representative markets in the main producing areas decreased by 0.63% week - on - week and 17.52% year - on - year. It first weakened and then increased [35]. - **Old Hen Slaughter**: The total slaughter volume of old hens last week was 529,200, a week - on - week decrease of 1.54%. The average slaughter age was 503 days, and the slaughter volume decreased with a slightly earlier slaughter age [41]. - **Demand Side** - **Arrival Volume in Consuming Areas**: As of last Thursday, the arrival volume in the Beijing market increased by 2.06% week - on - week, while that in the Guangdong market decreased by 20.03% week - on - week. The overall downstream consumption demand was average [45]. - **Sales Volume in Consuming Areas**: The egg sales volume last week was 5,928.27 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.56% [49]. - **Inventory Situation**: The inventory in the production link last week was 1.23 days, a week - on - week increase of 17.14%; the inventory in the circulation link was 1.52 days, a week - on - week increase of 3.40%. The overall inventory increased slightly [53]. - **Egg - laying Hen Breeding Cost and Profit**: The egg - laying hen breeding cost last week was 3.55 yuan per catty, remaining flat week - on - week. The breeding profit was - 0.85 yuan per catty, a week - on - week decrease of 0.17 yuan per catty, a decrease of 25.00%. The egg - laying hen breeding loss further expanded [57]. 3.3. Market Outlook The egg futures market may continue to fluctuate in the short term. With the boost of the third - quarter consumption peak season, egg prices are expected to have a phased recovery, but the annual price peak may be lower than that of last year [59]. 3.4. Operation Strategy Due to the short - term market uncertainty, it is recommended to wait and see. Continuously monitor the signals of capacity reduction and demand recovery in July [10][60].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not explicitly provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The chemical industry as a whole is in a weak pattern, closely related to the downturn of the cost - end. The instability of crude oil and the decline of coal prices lead to a downward shift in the costs of oil - based and coal - based chemicals. The polyester chain, previously boosted by trade easing, shows signs of weakness due to the cooperative production cuts of filament enterprises [1][2]. - Energy - end weakness drags down chemical product prices. The market needs to see an improvement in demand; otherwise, it will enter a weaker pattern [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - On May 28, the SC2507 contract closed at 453 yuan/barrel with a change of - 1.16%, and the Brent2508 contract closed at $64.33/barrel with a change of 0.93%. - The OPEC and non - OPEC oil - producing countries decided to maintain the overall crude oil production target until the end of December 2026. The US sanctions policy on Russia and Iran has high uncertainty. Libya's eastern government may declare force majeure on oil fields and ports. - Short - term macro and geopolitical factors are favorable, but the OPEC+ accelerated production increase limits the rebound space. It is expected to fluctuate [4][5]. 3.1.2 LPG - On May 28, 2025, the PG 2507 contract closed at 4097 yuan/ton with a change of + 0.17%. - There are signs of recovery in the profits of downstream plants in Shandong. The demand for civil gas and chemical use has increased, but the overall demand is still weak. There are multiple PDH plants scheduled to resume production from late May to early June. It is expected to have a short - term recovery but with limited upward space, so it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [9]. 3.1.3 Asphalt - The main asphalt futures closed at 3526 yuan/ton. The spot prices in East China, Northeast, and Shandong were 3580 yuan/ton, 3900 yuan/ton, and 3625 yuan/ton respectively. - The sharp rise in US Treasury yields, tariff conflicts, and OPEC+ over - production are expected to put pressure on asphalt prices. The supply of domestic asphalt raw materials is sufficient, and refinery operations have increased. The demand side shows that asphalt is still over - valued. It is expected that the asphalt price is over - valued and waiting to fall [6]. 3.1.4 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The main high - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3037 yuan/ton. - Factors such as the sharp rise in US Treasury yields, OPEC+ over - production, increased import tariffs, and reduced demand for power generation will put pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil prices. It is expected that the supply will increase and the demand will decrease, and it will fluctuate weakly [7][8]. 3.1.5 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The main low - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3530 yuan/ton. - It follows the fluctuation of crude oil. Currently, the supply and demand are both weak. It is expected to face an increase in supply and a decline in demand, and will maintain a low - value operation, following the crude oil fluctuation [8][9]. 3.1.6 PX - On May 28, the PX CFR China Taiwan price was $836(-4)/ton, and the PX 2509 contract closed at 6590(-116) yuan/ton. - In the short term, crude oil is fluctuating weakly due to the OPEC+ production increase policy, squeezing the cost momentum of PX. In terms of supply - demand pattern, the PX processing fee has recovered rapidly, and the impact of plant maintenance on PX has weakened. It is expected that the PX price will continue to consolidate [11]. 3.1.7 PTA - On May 28, the PTA spot price was 4867(-8) yuan/ton, and the spot processing fee was 329(+16) yuan/ton. - The previous maintenance plants are restarting, while the downstream polyester manufacturers may increase production cuts. The PTA inventory reduction speed will slow down, and the polyester industry chain profit may decline. It is expected that the PTA market will continue to be under pressure for adjustment [11]. 3.1.8 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - On May 28, the ethylene glycol price declined. The market was concerned about the further reduction of polyester load. - The decline on the 28th was mainly due to the decline in coal prices and the reduction of polyester filament production. The cost of EG has decreased, and the demand has declined. It is expected that the price will not trend downwards, and investors should view it with a fluctuating mindset [13]. 3.1.9 Short - Fiber - On May 28, the long - filament manufacturers announced an additional 4% production cut, and the PF futures fluctuated lower. - The short - fiber export volume in May may remain at a relatively high level, and the hidden inventory is low. However, there is still great uncertainty about future demand. It is expected that the short - fiber processing fee has limited compression space and will continue to fluctuate strongly [14][15]. 3.1.10 Bottle Chip - On May 28, the polyester raw material futures prices declined, and the polyester bottle chip factory quotes were mostly stable with partial slight decreases. - PTA and EG were dragged down by the long - filament production cuts, and the bottle chips followed the decline. The processing fee of bottle chips will be supported between 300 - 400 yuan/ton, and the absolute price will follow the raw materials and continue to fluctuate [17]. 3.1.11 Methanol - On May 28, the methanol spot price in Taicang was 2230 yuan/ton. The port inventory is gradually entering the accumulation cycle, and the inland price is temporarily stable. - Some Iranian plants are expected to restart this week. The coal price has stabilized slightly after the decline, and the methanol production profit is still relatively high. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [19][20]. 3.1.12 Urea - On May 28, 2025, the urea factory - warehouse and market low - end prices were 1810(+0) and 1860(+10) respectively, and the main contract closed at 1790 yuan/ton with a change of - 1.32%. - The daily urea production has increased, the agricultural demand is in a short - term gap, and the industrial demand is weak. The export is expected to start in June at the earliest. The domestic supply is strong and the demand is weak. It is expected that the urea futures will fluctuate weakly [20]. 3.1.13 Plastic (LLDPE) - On May 28, the LLDPE spot mainstream price was 7100(-50) yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was 128(-15) yuan/ton. - The oil price is expected to have a downward space, the coal price has stabilized slightly, the downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the plastic's own fundamental pressure still exists. It is expected that the LLDPE 09 contract will fluctuate weakly in the short term [22]. 3.1.14 PP - On May 28, the mainstream transaction price of East China拉丝 was 7000(-20) yuan/ton, and the PP main contract basis was 107(-17) yuan/ton. - The oil price is expected to decline, the coal price has stabilized slightly, the short - term maintenance has increased slightly, the downstream demand is still weak, and the supply growth rate is high. It is expected to decline due to supply - demand inertia and wait for a stop - falling signal, with a short - term weak fluctuation [22]. 3.1.15 PVC - The East China calcium carbide - based PVC benchmark price was 4730(-40) yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was - 28(+5) yuan/ton. - There are many PVC maintenance plans from May to June, and the inventory is being reduced. However, in the long - term, new production capacity will be put into operation, the domestic demand is in the off - season, and the export is expected to weaken. The cost center of PVC is moving down, and the market is under pressure [24]. 3.1.16 Caustic Soda - The 32% caustic soda price in Shandong was 2750(+0) yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was 301(+10) yuan/ton. - The supply and demand increased in late May, but there will be many maintenance plans in June, and the supply and demand may be weak. The spot price has reached the peak, and the future supply is expected to be pessimistic. It is expected to fluctuate widely [24]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Data on the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as SC, WTI, Brent, etc. are provided, including the latest values and change values [25]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Data on the basis and warehouse receipts of varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. are provided, including the latest values and change values [26]. - **Inter - Variety Spread**: Data on the inter - variety spreads of different categories such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. are provided, including the latest values and change values [27]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Data on the basis and spreads of various chemical products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc. are provided, but specific data details are not fully presented in the given text [28][40][52].