证券研究报告 | 北交所定期报告 | | --- | hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 23 日 证券分析师 赵昊 SAC：S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 王宇璇 SAC：S1350525050003 wangyuxuan@huayuanstock.com 拉动内需、扩大消费是国家战略之举，有望刺激北交所相关消费企业发展 ——北交所消费服务产业跟踪第四十四期（20251221） 投资要点： 联系人 中央经济工作会议将扩大内需置于首位，犒赏经济或为拉动消费新引擎。2025 年 12 月 10 日至 11 日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。根据新华网，中央经济工作会议 在部署 2026 年经济工作时，将扩大内需置于首位，明确"坚持内需主导，建设强大 国内市场"。会议提出，扩大优质商品和服务供给，优化"两新"政策实施，推动 投资止跌回稳，适当增加中央预算内投资规模，优化实施"两重"项目等系列举措。 习近平总书记的重要文章《扩大内需是战略之举》指出，消费是我国经济增长的重 要引擎，扩大消费最根本的是促进就业，完善社保，优化收入分配结构，扩大中等 收入群体， ...

Group 1: Policy Environment and Consumer Recovery - The national policy has been continuously enhancing support for service consumption, leading to a steady recovery in domestic demand, with a focus on sectors such as elderly care, tourism, and household services [13][15][17] - In October 2025, the retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9% year-on-year, with the catering sector boosted by the "Double Festival" effect, showing a 3.8% increase [17][22] - The consumer price index (CPI) turned positive at +0.2%, indicating a gradual recovery in consumer sentiment and a stable improvement in the overall consumption price system [22][24] Group 2: New Consumption Sectors Analysis - The pet food industry is characterized by high repurchase rates and a growing young pet owner demographic, with the market expected to reach approximately 175.5 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 7.5% [30][31] - The new-style tea beverage market is projected to reach about 354.7 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 6.4%, driven by demand upgrades and brand differentiation [34][36] - The "Guzi Economy," which includes merchandise derived from IP such as anime and games, is rapidly expanding, connecting cultural and physical goods consumption among young consumers [40][41] Group 3: Key Companies in New Consumption - Taihu Snow, a leading brand in silk bedding, has established a strong market position through multi-channel strategies and brand recognition, transitioning towards a "new national silk lifestyle brand" [43][44] - Bixinglong, a creative packaging leader, has built significant barriers through a comprehensive service model and strong client relationships with high-end brands, enhancing its market presence [45][46] - Lusi Co., a prominent player in the pet food sector, is leveraging its dual-brand strategy and expanding its domestic market share while maintaining strong growth through its OEM/ODM model [47][48] - Yizhi Konjac, a leader in konjac processing, is capitalizing on its supply chain advantages and product premiumization, with a focus on expanding into functional applications and maintaining strong client relationships [50][51] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with clear brand positioning and category barriers, such as Taihu Snow in the silk bedding sector, which has maintained a leading position for years [54][55] - Companies that align with domestic trends and excel in capacity and channel development, like Lusi Co. in the pet food market, are also highlighted as strong investment opportunities [55] - Firms with supply chain advantages or functional raw material barriers, such as Yizhi Konjac, are recommended for their long-term growth potential in the context of domestic market upgrades [55]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The North Exchange has shown fluctuating performance, with a total of 268 listed companies and an industry market capitalization of 858.43 billion [1][4] - The North Exchange 50 Index experienced a decline of 0.7% during the week of July 14-18, 2025, closing at 1418.61 points, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indices increased by 1.02% and 0.42%, respectively [4][13] - The average market capitalization of the North Exchange component stocks is 3.202 billion [4][13] - The average daily trading volume for the North Exchange component stocks reached 21.885 billion, reflecting a 1.55% increase from the previous week [4][16] Summary by Sections North Exchange Market Overview - As of July 18, 2025, the North Exchange comprises 268 component stocks, with an average market capitalization of 3.202 billion [4][13] - The North Exchange 50 Index saw a weekly decline of 0.7%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indices posted gains of 1.02% and 0.42% respectively [4][13] - The daily average trading volume for the North Exchange component stocks was 21.885 billion, with a turnover rate of 25.26% [4][16] Industry Performance - The top five performing sectors in the A-share market during the week were pharmaceuticals and biotechnology, communications, national defense and military industry, computers, and banking, with respective gains of 21.25%, 20.08%, 19.06%, 17.35%, and 16.64% [4][21] Individual Stock Performance - Among the 268 stocks listed on the North Exchange, 100 stocks rose, 166 fell, and 2 remained flat, resulting in a rise ratio of 37.45% [4][24] New Stocks - No new stock issuances occurred during the week, but one company updated its review status to registration, while 30 companies moved to the inquiry stage [4][29] Key News - The North Exchange has strengthened its disclosure requirements and released the second-quarter ratings for securities firms, with 103 firms evaluated [4][32] Investment Strategy - The report expresses optimism for the North Exchange's performance in 2025, suggesting a focus on sectors such as data centers, robotics, semiconductors, consumer goods, and military information technology [4][33]