国家外汇管理局最新数据显示，央行在9月继续增持黄金，净买入4万盎司后储备黄金总量攀升至7406万盎司，创下历史新高。值得注意的是，此轮黄金增持 已连续11个月持续，自2024年11月起每月均有净买入记录，而上一次连续增持周期则止步于2024年5月。 从操作节奏看，黄金增持呈现持续性特征，而美债操作则呈现明显的波动性。2024年11月至今年7月的9个月间，中国在美债操作上呈现"四增五减"的交替 格局。 2024年11月增持85亿美元，12月转为减持；2025年1月、2月、6月分别增持，3月、4月、5月、7月又现减持，8月、9月数据虽未公布，但节奏错配特征已十 分明显。这种"增持黄金+波动美债"的操作模式，与单纯替代逻辑存在根本性差异。 进一步对比黄金增持规模。本轮11个月累计增持226万盎司，月均仅11.5万盎司，仅为2022年11月至2024年5月期间月均53.5万盎司增持量的五分之一。更值 得注意的是，9月单月增持量骤降至4万盎司。 全球黄金市场流通性受制于存量有限，主要产金国年度新增供应量难以支撑大规模替代需求。正如市场规律所示，若黄金实现"量大管饱"，其稀缺性价值将 大幅稀释，储藏意义亦随之弱化。 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving dynamics of China's holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, highlighting the shift from passive accumulation to a more strategic and diversified approach in response to changing global economic conditions and U.S. policy actions [1][12][27]. Group 1: Historical Context of China's U.S. Treasury Holdings - China's entry into the World Trade Organization in December 2001 marked the beginning of its rapid accumulation of foreign exchange reserves, primarily through exports to the U.S. [3] - By 2010, China's exports to the U.S. surged to $283.3 billion, up from $69.9 billion in 2002, reflecting an annual growth rate exceeding 20% [3] - The influx of U.S. dollars led to a significant increase in China's foreign exchange reserves, surpassing $4 trillion by 2013 [3][8] Group 2: The Appeal of U.S. Treasuries - During the 2000s, U.S. Treasuries were seen as the only viable safe asset for China, given the limited options in the global market [8][10] - The U.S. economy maintained a dominant position, with GDP accounting for over 25% of the global total and the dollar representing over 60% of global trade settlements [8] - The liquidity and government backing of U.S. Treasuries made them an attractive option for China, allowing for quick conversion to dollars when needed [9][10] Group 3: Changing Perceptions and Strategies - The perception of U.S. Treasuries as a "risk-free asset" has been challenged, particularly after the U.S. froze Russian assets in 2022, raising concerns about the political implications of holding U.S. debt [12][14] - As a result, global central banks began to diversify their reserves, with countries like India and Brazil reducing their dollar holdings [14][15] - China's response has been to gradually reduce its U.S. Treasury holdings by over $280 billion from 2022 to 2025, while maintaining market stability [17][19] Group 4: Diversification of Reserves - China is adopting a strategy of "gradual reduction and multi-faceted replacement," focusing on diversifying its foreign exchange reserves [19] - The share of gold in China's reserves increased from 3.1% in 2020 to 4.8% in 2025, as gold is viewed as a safe asset free from credit risk [19][21] - The internationalization of the renminbi is seen as a long-term alternative, with significant increases in renminbi settlements in trade with Russia and ASEAN countries [22][24] Group 5: Implications for Global Financial Order - The shift in China's strategy reflects a broader trend of diminishing U.S. dollar hegemony, as the U.S. actions have eroded the core appeal of U.S. Treasuries [27] - China's diversification efforts signal a transition from merely adapting to the dollar system to actively shaping a new global financial order [27]

Economic Outlook - The global economy is undergoing significant adjustments and transformations, with uncertainties affecting investment directions for the first half of 2025 [1] - The volatility in gold prices is expected to continue, with a potential for moderate long-term increases driven by central bank purchases [1][4] Trade and Tariff Impacts - Global tariff policies are experiencing notable fluctuations, impacting both global trade and financial markets, leading to increased investor caution and volatility [2] - The U.S. tariff increases have particularly affected Canada and Mexico, where exports to the U.S. constitute approximately 70% and 80% of their total exports, respectively [2] Market Stability - The Asian market, particularly China, shows greater stability and resilience compared to Western markets, with more negotiation space and policy tools available to manage trade relations with the U.S. [3] Gold as a Safe Haven - Gold has historically been viewed as a safe-haven asset, particularly effective in hedging against U.S. dollar risks, with a 90% negative correlation observed over time [4] - Central banks globally are reducing their holdings of U.S. debt in favor of increasing gold reserves, reflecting a trend towards de-dollarization and financial risk management [5][8] Demand for Gold - Gold demand is categorized into four main types: industrial use, jewelry consumption, investment demand, and central bank purchases, each influencing gold prices differently [6] - Industrial demand for gold has seen a rare increase of 6% in 2023, driven by advancements in AI and high-tech industries [7] - Investment demand, particularly during periods of heightened market uncertainty, has been a significant driver of gold price increases [7] Currency and Investment Strategies - Investors in U.S. dollar-denominated assets face currency risk, which can be mitigated through gold as a hedging tool [9] - Adjusting hedging strategies based on expectations of the U.S. dollar's performance can optimize investment returns and manage risks effectively [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complexities surrounding the notion of "weaponizing" U.S. Treasury bonds by China, emphasizing that while there has been a reduction in holdings, it does not equate to a strategic weaponization of these assets [1][6][29]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Holdings - As of March, China holds $765.4 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds, making it the third-largest holder, while Japan remains the largest with $1.1308 trillion [1][4]. - In March, other countries like the UK increased their holdings, with the UK's total reaching $779.3 billion, surpassing China's holdings [1][4]. - Despite a $18.9 billion reduction in long-term U.S. Treasury bonds by China in March, this is viewed as a normal adjustment rather than a significant sell-off [2][5][29]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Reactions - The overall foreign investment in U.S. Treasury bonds increased by $233.1 billion in March, indicating strong demand despite China's actions [5]. - The article highlights that the recent sell-off of U.S. Treasuries is primarily driven by market behavior rather than a coordinated effort by China [18][21]. - The relationship between U.S. Treasury yields and market confidence is discussed, noting that rising yields can lead to increased borrowing costs for the U.S. government [11][22]. Group 3: Strategic Considerations - The concept of "de-dollarization" is mentioned, with China gradually reducing its U.S. Treasury holdings since the Trump administration, but this is framed as a long-term strategy rather than an immediate weaponization [20][26]. - The potential consequences of a large-scale sell-off of U.S. Treasuries by China could destabilize the market and lead to significant losses for China itself [23][26]. - The article argues that maintaining a substantial amount of U.S. Treasuries is crucial for China to stabilize its currency and manage financial risks [26][28].

Economic Dynamics - The U.S. Treasury's report on international capital flows indicates a significant change in the overseas holding pattern of U.S. Treasury bonds, particularly a continued reduction by China, which has decreased its holdings by nearly $280 billion from 2022 to 2024 [1][3] - The current U.S. national debt has surpassed $34 trillion, with a debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 120%, raising concerns about the safety and yield of U.S. Treasuries amid fluctuating monetary policies by the Federal Reserve [1][3] Capital Flow Trends - In March, overseas funds saw a total inflow of $254.3 billion into U.S. securities, indicating some attractiveness of the U.S. financial market; however, this was driven by a stark contrast between $259.2 billion in private capital inflows and $4.9 billion in official capital outflows [3][6] - This trend reflects a division in international capital, where central banks are reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasuries for safety reasons, while private capital is entering the market to capitalize on anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][6] Diplomatic Efforts - Trump's recent Middle East visit aimed to strengthen economic ties and reduce Gulf countries' relations with China, but the likelihood of achieving these goals is considered very low due to unmet core demands from countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE [6][8] - The visit highlighted the strategic importance of the Middle East as an energy hub, with Trump claiming to secure investment agreements worth thousands of dollars, yet the underlying strategic objectives remain challenging to fulfill [6][8] Geopolitical Implications - The juxtaposition of Trump's ambitious diplomatic goals against ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine underscores a significant gap between U.S. commitments and actual outcomes, potentially undermining U.S. diplomatic credibility [8] - The evolving landscape of U.S. Treasury holdings and Middle Eastern diplomatic actions illustrates the complexities of U.S. economic and foreign policy, raising questions about how the U.S. will balance economic stability with geopolitical maneuvering in the future [8]