Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving dynamics of China's holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, highlighting the shift from passive accumulation to a more strategic and diversified approach in response to changing global economic conditions and U.S. policy actions [1][12][27]. Group 1: Historical Context of China's U.S. Treasury Holdings - China's entry into the World Trade Organization in December 2001 marked the beginning of its rapid accumulation of foreign exchange reserves, primarily through exports to the U.S. [3] - By 2010, China's exports to the U.S. surged to $283.3 billion, up from $69.9 billion in 2002, reflecting an annual growth rate exceeding 20% [3] - The influx of U.S. dollars led to a significant increase in China's foreign exchange reserves, surpassing $4 trillion by 2013 [3][8] Group 2: The Appeal of U.S. Treasuries - During the 2000s, U.S. Treasuries were seen as the only viable safe asset for China, given the limited options in the global market [8][10] - The U.S. economy maintained a dominant position, with GDP accounting for over 25% of the global total and the dollar representing over 60% of global trade settlements [8] - The liquidity and government backing of U.S. Treasuries made them an attractive option for China, allowing for quick conversion to dollars when needed [9][10] Group 3: Changing Perceptions and Strategies - The perception of U.S. Treasuries as a "risk-free asset" has been challenged, particularly after the U.S. froze Russian assets in 2022, raising concerns about the political implications of holding U.S. debt [12][14] - As a result, global central banks began to diversify their reserves, with countries like India and Brazil reducing their dollar holdings [14][15] - China's response has been to gradually reduce its U.S. Treasury holdings by over $280 billion from 2022 to 2025, while maintaining market stability [17][19] Group 4: Diversification of Reserves - China is adopting a strategy of "gradual reduction and multi-faceted replacement," focusing on diversifying its foreign exchange reserves [19] - The share of gold in China's reserves increased from 3.1% in 2020 to 4.8% in 2025, as gold is viewed as a safe asset free from credit risk [19][21] - The internationalization of the renminbi is seen as a long-term alternative, with significant increases in renminbi settlements in trade with Russia and ASEAN countries [22][24] Group 5: Implications for Global Financial Order - The shift in China's strategy reflects a broader trend of diminishing U.S. dollar hegemony, as the U.S. actions have eroded the core appeal of U.S. Treasuries [27] - China's diversification efforts signal a transition from merely adapting to the dollar system to actively shaping a new global financial order [27]

《中国经营报》：美国加征关税后，全球金融市场出现了剧烈波动，你如何解读这种市场反应？ 邓志坚：目前，全球关税政策出现了明显的波动和调整。虽然多个国家与美国之间已经达成了初步的贸 易协议，但这些协议尚未完全落地，政策的不确定性仍在持续。这种背景下，无论是全球贸易还是金融 投资市场，都受到较大影响。投资者一方面面临方向判断困难，另一方面也滋生出更强的避险情绪，市 场短期内可能仍将维持震荡态势。 亚太市场相较于欧美市场而言，目前仍较为稳定。其中原因在于，美国提高关税对加拿大和墨西哥的冲 击尤为显著。加拿大对美出口占其总出口约70%，占其GDP的十几个百分点；墨西哥的比例则更高，对 美出口占比接近80%，对本国经济影响巨大。相比之下，欧元区对美出口仅占其总出口的15%—16%， 对GDP的影响在3%左右，这一比例与中国相近。然而，欧元区还面临地缘政治风险、内部选举变数以 及政党更迭等多重挑战，不确定性反而更大。 相较之下，中国所在的亚洲市场整体表现出更强的稳定性和韧性。中国在与美国的贸易关系中具备更大 的谈判空间，也拥有更多应对手段和政策工具。因此，在全球不确定性持续的背景下，亚太市场尤其是 中国市场，短期内受到的直 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complexities surrounding the notion of "weaponizing" U.S. Treasury bonds by China, emphasizing that while there has been a reduction in holdings, it does not equate to a strategic weaponization of these assets [1][6][29]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Holdings - As of March, China holds $765.4 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds, making it the third-largest holder, while Japan remains the largest with $1.1308 trillion [1][4]. - In March, other countries like the UK increased their holdings, with the UK's total reaching $779.3 billion, surpassing China's holdings [1][4]. - Despite a $18.9 billion reduction in long-term U.S. Treasury bonds by China in March, this is viewed as a normal adjustment rather than a significant sell-off [2][5][29]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Reactions - The overall foreign investment in U.S. Treasury bonds increased by $233.1 billion in March, indicating strong demand despite China's actions [5]. - The article highlights that the recent sell-off of U.S. Treasuries is primarily driven by market behavior rather than a coordinated effort by China [18][21]. - The relationship between U.S. Treasury yields and market confidence is discussed, noting that rising yields can lead to increased borrowing costs for the U.S. government [11][22]. Group 3: Strategic Considerations - The concept of "de-dollarization" is mentioned, with China gradually reducing its U.S. Treasury holdings since the Trump administration, but this is framed as a long-term strategy rather than an immediate weaponization [20][26]. - The potential consequences of a large-scale sell-off of U.S. Treasuries by China could destabilize the market and lead to significant losses for China itself [23][26]. - The article argues that maintaining a substantial amount of U.S. Treasuries is crucial for China to stabilize its currency and manage financial risks [26][28].

近期美国在经济与外交领域的两大动态引发了全球的瞩目。一方面美国财政部公布的2025年3月国际资本流动报告 显示，美债的海外持有格局出现了显著的变化；另一方面，美国总统特朗普结束了中东三国的访问，在宣扬其外 交成果的同时，也暴露出了美国战略意图与现实之间的矛盾。自2022年4月，美债跌破万亿美元关口之后，中国持 续地减持美债的动作，绝非简单的投资策略的调整，而是基于对美国经济基本面的审慎的判断。 2022至2024年，累计减持近2800亿美元，即便在2025年前两月，出现了短暂的增持，也难以改变整体趋势。这种 持续的"去美债化"，反映出中国对美国债务高企，财政赤字失控，货币政策反复无常的担忧。美国当前国债规模 已突破34万亿美元，债务与GDP比值超过120%，美联储在通胀与增长间反复横跳的货币政策，更让美债的安全性 与收益性充满不确定性。 特朗普（资料图） 有美国学者指出，特朗普尝试着通过经济方面的合作，来降低海湾国家跟中国之间的关系，不过呢这一目标能够 实现的可能性实在是非常小，几乎可以忽略不计。从现实层面来看，尽管沙特、阿联酋等国，在访问期间承诺巨 额投资，但是各自的核心诉求，并未得到完全满足。沙特渴望的正 ...