2月3日早晨，金银迎来反弹。截至2月3日8时22分，现货黄金报4809.25，日内涨超3%；现货白银报83.808，日内涨超5% 文｜《财经》研究员 顾欣宇 记者 唐郡 2月2日下午，随着金银等贵金属价格巨震，工商银行发布最新风险提示称，近期国际贵金属市场波动率显著增加，引发价格快速变化，风险进一 步显现。"建议从中长期视角考虑，坚持分批分散、适度均衡的原则进行投资配置。" 此外，多家国有大行通过提高贵金属投资门槛，进行限额管理等方式，帮助投资者把控风险。 编辑 | 张威 北京时间2026年2月2日，金银经历跳水、反弹后再度陷入震荡。 2月2日早盘，黄金、白银集体低开，7时20分，现货白银日内跌幅扩大至6%，报79.57美元/盎司。现货黄金向下跌破4800美元/盎司，日内下跌 3.35%。 随后，金银一度反弹但很快继续下挫，现货黄金在14时30分左右跌破4450美元/盎司，为1月8日以来新低；现货白银一度失守72美元/盎司，接近 抹去2026年内涨幅。14时38分，现货黄金报4421.31美元/盎司，日内跌超9%，现货白银报72.21，日内跌超15%。 2月3日早晨，金银迎来反弹。截至2月3日8时22分，现货 ...

2月2日早盘，黄金、白银集体低开，7时20分，现货白银日内跌幅扩大至6%，报79.57美元/盎司。现货 黄金向下跌破4800美元/盎司，日内下跌3.35%。 随后，金银一度反弹但很快继续下挫，现货黄金在14时30分左右跌破4450美元/盎司，为1月8日以来新 低；现货白银一度失守72美元/盎司，接近抹去2026年内涨幅。14时38分，现货黄金报4421.31美元/盎 司，日内跌超9%，现货白银报72.21，日内跌超15%。 截至18时19分，现货黄金报4715.43美元/盎司，现货白银报81.834美元/盎司。 Capital.com高级分析师Kyle Rodda在一份报告中写道："贵金属价格的全面暴跌表明，任何市场都可能 陷入狂热之中。鉴于头寸和杠杆的增加，抛售正在渗透到其他市场。去杠杆化正在发生。" 14时38分，现货黄金报4421.31美元/盎司，日内跌超9%，现货白银报72.21，日内跌超15%。 北京时间2026年2月2日，金银经历跳水、反弹后再度陷入震荡。 同日，工商银行宣布自2026年2月7日起，对如意金积存业务进行限额管理，限额类型包括全量或单一客 户单日积存/赎回上限、单笔积存或赎回总量上限 ...

（来源：经济参考报） 在星展银行近期举办的"2026年一季度投资策略展望"专题活动中，星展银行（中国）高级投资策略师邓 志坚表示，展望2026年，市场对多元化资产配置的需求持续上升，亚洲市场成为全球投资者的核心关注 区域。 回顾2025年，邓志坚表示，星展银行此前对亚洲市场的重视得到验证，上证综指、深证成指、恒生指数 及恒深综合指数均实现良好表现。在亚洲主要经济体中，韩国市场涨幅尤为突出，部分东南亚国家市场 亦有亮眼表现。 谈及2026年，邓志坚说，全球"去美元化""去美债化"趋势日益显著，叠加美股科技板块高集中度，市场 对多元化资产配置的需求持续上升，亚洲市场成为全球投资者的核心关注区域。"历史数据显示，美元 走弱周期往往是亚太地区市场的战略配置窗口期——美元指数下行时，亚洲市场通常同步走强。"邓志 坚说。 星展判断，2026年美元仍将维持偏弱态势，这将提升亚洲地区货币的吸引力。同时，亚洲市场在汇率稳 定性、国家安全性及行业发展潜力等方面具备综合优势。"星展自2025年起便上调亚洲市场评级，2026 年仍维持看多观点。"邓志坚说。邓志坚也认为，亚洲市场中，中国优质企业具备较强吸引力，A股与H 股均为核心配置 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, surpassing $4600 per ounce, is driven by concerns over political interference in the Federal Reserve's independence, leading to a weaker dollar and increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][2]. Group 1: Factors Supporting Gold Price Increase - Geopolitical risks are high, with U.S. military involvement in Venezuela contributing to increased market uncertainty and driving up gold prices [3]. - Rising U.S. fiscal risks, exacerbated by past government shutdowns and unsustainable debt levels, are prompting investors to seek refuge in gold, diminishing the appeal of dollar-denominated assets [3]. - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves as a strategic response to economic uncertainties, which is a significant factor in the rising gold prices [3][4]. - The expectation of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, due to a cooling labor market and manageable inflation risks, is providing further support for gold prices [3]. Group 2: Future Gold Price Predictions - Morgan Stanley has raised its gold price forecast, predicting it could reach $4800 per ounce by 2026, indicating strong long-term bullish sentiment [4]. - DBS Bank anticipates gold prices will fluctuate around $4500 per ounce in the first half of 2026, with potential to reach $5100 per ounce in the latter half, driven by central bank demand and increasing investment from both institutions and retail investors [4]. - The long-term demand for gold from central banks is expected to surpass that from jewelry and ETFs, reflecting a strategic shift in asset allocation amid global monetary system changes [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The prices of gold and silver continue to surge, reaching new historical highs, driven by multiple factors including geopolitical tensions, U.S. fiscal risks, and strong demand for safe-haven assets [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Price Movements - On January 12, the main silver contract in Shanghai opened significantly higher at 20,881 CNY/kg, with a peak of 20,950 CNY/kg, marking a 14.07% increase [1] - COMEX silver rose over 6%, reaching 84.52 USD/oz, while London spot silver hit a high of 84.589 USD/oz, with an increase of over 5% [1] - COMEX gold reached 4,612.7 USD/oz, and the Shanghai gold main contract saw a 3.07% rise, both setting new historical highs [1] Group 2: Factors Driving Price Increases - Geopolitical risks are high, enhancing market demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver [3] - U.S. fiscal risks are increasing due to the Trump administration's economic policies, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. debt and diminishing the attractiveness of dollar assets [3][4] - Central banks globally are showing a strong willingness to increase gold reserves due to economic uncertainties [3] Group 3: Investment Trends - In 2025, gold and silver saw substantial inflows, with over 5.5 billion shares of gold ETFs net purchased, and the largest gold ETF in China, Huaan Gold ETF, growing from under 30 billion CNY to over 90 billion CNY [5][6] - As of December 2025, China's central bank held 7.415 million ounces of gold, continuing a 14-month streak of increasing gold reserves [6] - In the first seven trading days of 2026, gold ETFs saw net purchases exceeding 400 million shares, with Huaan Gold ETF approaching 100 billion CNY [6] Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Analysts predict that gold and gold stocks will have significant potential in 2026, driven by ongoing monetary easing and geopolitical factors [7] - The investment logic surrounding gold has shifted from short-term economic indicators to a focus on long-term structural risk hedging [7] - Gold is increasingly viewed as a strategic long-term hedge, enhancing portfolio resilience amid policy uncertainties and fiscal vulnerabilities [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the expected fluctuations in gold prices, driven by central bank demand, investment interest, and geopolitical risks, with projections indicating potential price movements between $4,500 and $5,100 per ounce in the coming months [1][2]. Group 1: Price Projections - The next key psychological and technical resistance level for gold is anticipated to be around $4,800 per ounce [1] - DBS Bank forecasts that gold prices may fluctuate around $4,500 per ounce in the first half of the year, with a potential rise to $5,100 per ounce in the second half [1] Group 2: Demand Drivers - Central bank allocation and investment demand are identified as key drivers for the increase in gold prices [1] - There is a strong willingness among central banks to increase gold holdings amid global trends of "de-dollarization" and "debt reduction" [1] - Concerns over the expanding scale of U.S. Treasury bonds have led investors to view gold as an alternative asset, further boosting investment demand [1] Group 3: Geopolitical Risks - Current high levels of global geopolitical risks are enhancing market risk aversion, providing strong support for rising gold prices [2] - Financial institutions, including Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, have issued warnings regarding gold trading risks and adjusted rules to help investors manage market volatility [2]

Core Viewpoint - The prices of gold and silver continue to soar, reaching new historical highs, driven by multiple factors including geopolitical risks, U.S. fiscal concerns, and ongoing monetary easing by the Federal Reserve [1][4][5]. Group 1: Price Movements - On January 12, the main silver contract in Shanghai opened significantly higher at 20,881 yuan per kilogram, with a peak of 20,950 yuan, marking a 14.07% increase [1]. - COMEX silver rose over 6%, reaching 84.52 USD per ounce, while London spot silver hit a high of 84.589 USD per ounce, with a gain exceeding 5% [1]. - COMEX gold reached 4,612.7 USD per ounce, and the Shanghai gold main contract saw a 3.07% increase, both setting new historical highs [1]. Group 2: Investment Trends - Following the surge in gold prices, there has been a notable increase in investment enthusiasm for related assets, with over 5.5 billion shares of gold ETFs net subscribed in 2025, and an additional 400 million shares in the first seven trading days of 2026 [1][8]. - The largest gold ETF in China, Huaan Gold ETF, grew from under 30 billion yuan at the beginning of 2025 to over 90 billion yuan [7]. - The People's Bank of China reported that its gold reserves reached 74.15 million ounces by December 2025, marking 14 consecutive months of increases [8]. Group 3: Factors Driving Gold and Silver Prices - Geopolitical risks are high, enhancing market risk aversion and supporting precious metal prices [4]. - U.S. fiscal risks are rising due to the economic and fiscal policies of the Trump administration, leading to increased skepticism about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal health [4][5]. - Global central banks continue to show strong interest in gold as a strategic reserve asset amid economic uncertainties [4]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Analysts predict that the long-term upward trend for gold will persist, driven by a shift towards "de-dollarization" and "debt reduction" policies in major economies [5][10]. - UBS Wealth Management has raised its price targets for gold, forecasting a rise to 5,000 USD per ounce by mid-2026, with potential peaks of 5,400 USD if political or financial risks escalate [8]. - Investment strategies are shifting from short-term economic indicators to long-term structural risk hedging, indicating a fundamental change in commodity investment logic [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent trends in gold prices, driven by central bank purchases and changing investment regulations, indicating a bullish outlook for gold in the medium to long term [3][5]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Domestic gold price (99.95%) is quoted at 1008.54 CNY per gram, up by 0.8% [1]. - International gold price is reported at 4574.1 USD per ounce, increasing by 1.63% [2]. Group 2: Influential Factors on Gold Prices - **Central Bank Purchases**: DBS Bank strategist expects gold prices to reach 5100 USD per ounce by the second half of 2026, driven by ongoing central bank purchases and a shift away from the US dollar and US Treasury bonds [3]. - **Investment Regulations**: Industrial and Commercial Bank of China has raised the minimum investment amount for gold accumulation to 1100 CNY, requiring investors to have a risk rating of C3 or above to open a regular investment account, reflecting the current high volatility in gold prices [4]. - **Global Central Bank Trends**: The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 14 consecutive months, with a target of 7415 million ounces by the end of 2025. Global central banks have purchased 297 tons of gold in the first 11 months of 2025, with over 70% of surveyed banks planning to increase gold allocations in the next five years [5].

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the potential for new economic momentum and forces to emerge in China during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, suggesting a strategic and tactical bullish outlook on A-share assets, particularly in sectors related to AI, new productivity, self-sufficiency, and international expansion [1][2][11]. Policy Perspective - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is seen as a critical period for China's economic and technological advancement, with expectations for a robust policy push to achieve a strong start in 2026, marking the beginning of a new economic cycle and technological revolution [2][10][23]. Market Configuration - A strategic and tactical positive outlook on A-share assets is recommended, focusing on a "dumbbell strategy" that emphasizes both high-growth technology sectors and stable dividend-paying stocks in a low-interest-rate environment [3][4][5]. - The report anticipates a volatile domestic bond market, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to fluctuate between 1.5% and 1.9% [6]. U.S. Market Outlook - The U.S. stock market is expected to experience volatility, with support for large tech stocks driven by AI narratives, while the U.S. Treasury yield curve is projected to steepen [7]. - The dollar is anticipated to remain weak, influenced by liquidity conditions and geopolitical factors, while the overall economic environment in the U.S. is expected to remain supportive [7][8]. Commodity Market Insights - There is a broad presence of bullish options in commodities, with precious metals like gold and silver benefiting from trends such as "de-dollarization" and "debt monetization" [8]. - Specific commodities such as lithium, copper, and rare earths are expected to perform well due to energy transition and defense demands [8][10]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the investment opportunities during the "15th Five-Year Plan" will focus on technology, industry, and new productivity, with a strong emphasis on high-quality economic growth and maintaining reasonable growth rates [23][24].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has continued to increase its gold reserves, net buying 40,000 ounces in September, bringing the total to 74.06 million ounces, a historical high, marking 11 consecutive months of net purchases since November 2024 [1][3] Group 1: Gold Reserves - The current gold reserve of 74.06 million ounces is equivalent to over 2,000 tons, significantly lower than the reserves of the US (8,300 tons) and Germany (3,300 tons) [7] - The recent increase in gold reserves has been characterized by a monthly average of only 11.5 thousand ounces over the past 11 months, which is one-fifth of the average increase of 53.5 thousand ounces from November 2022 to May 2024 [5][7] - The increase in gold reserves is closely tied to price movements, with a notable reduction in purchasing when gold prices are high, reflecting a strict cost control logic [7][11] Group 2: US Treasury Bonds - In contrast to the consistent increase in gold reserves, China's operations in US Treasury bonds have shown significant volatility, with a pattern of alternating increases and decreases from November 2024 to July 2025 [4][5] - As of July 2025, China has reduced its holdings of US Treasury bonds by $25.7 billion in a single month, the largest reduction in nearly a year, bringing the total holdings to $730.7 billion [2][4] - The overall trend shows that while some countries are reducing their US Treasury bond holdings, the total foreign holdings have increased from $8.43 trillion in July 2024 to $9.16 trillion in July 2025, indicating a contrasting strategy among major economies [9][11] Group 3: Strategic Implications - The dual strategy of increasing gold reserves while reducing US Treasury bond holdings has sparked discussions about a "de-dollarization" strategy, although this perspective lacks comprehensive support [3][9] - The management of foreign exchange reserves by China reflects a diversification strategy, with gold purchases aimed at optimizing reserve structure and bond adjustments reflecting a dynamic balance of asset returns and currency risk [9][11] - The current operational model is not merely a "de-dollarization" or a simple replacement of gold for bonds, but rather a comprehensive decision-making process based on market conditions and strategic objectives [11]