珀莱雅 603605.SH 公司研究 | 中报点评 中报展现多品牌韧性 拟发行 H 股拉开国际 化新篇章 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据中报，我们小幅调整公司盈利预测，预计公司 2025-2027 年每股收益分别为 4.44、5.13 和 5.88 元（原预测分别为为 4.56、5.36 和 6.06 元），DCF 目标估值 112.65 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 行业竞争加剧、终端消费需求减弱、新品拓展不及预期等 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 8,905 | 10,778 | 11,784 | 12,926 | 14,156 | | 同比增长 (%) | 39.5% | 21.0% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 9.5% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 1,503 | 1,890 | 2,141 | 2,475 | 2,837 | | 同比增长 (%) | 42.1% | 25.8% | 13.3% | 15.6 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·白酒Ⅱ 金徽酒（603919） 2025 年中报点评：升级韧性延续，回款节奏 稳健 股价走势 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 2,548 | 3,021 | 3,027 | 3,229 | 3,490 | | 同比（%） | 26.64 | 18.59 | 0.19 | 6.69 | 8.08 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 328.86 | 388.15 | 377.15 | 416.92 | 465.18 | | 同比（%） | 17.35 | 18.03 | (2.83) | 10.55 | 11.57 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.65 | 0.77 | 0.74 | 0.82 | 0.92 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 32.24 | 27.31 | 28.11 | 25.43 | 22.79 | [Table_Tag] [Table_ ...

2025 年 08 月 25 日 产品结构升级，经营稳步推进 买入(维持) 事件 | 分析师：孙山山 | S1050521110005 | | --- | --- | | sunss@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：张倩 | S1050124070037 | | zhangqian@cfsc.com.cn | | | 基本数据 | 2025-08-22 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 20.11 | | 总市值（亿元） | 102 | | 总股本（百万股） | 507 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 507 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 15.59-23.55 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 86.48 | 市场表现 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 (%) 金徽酒 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 投资要点 ▌促销投入增加，费用结构优化 2025Q2 公司毛利率同减 1pct 至 63.67%，主要系品鉴、赠饮 活动力度加大，销售/管理费用率分别同增 2pct/0.5pct 至 22.62%/13.04%，公司全面推行费用管理 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance for 2024 and Q1 2025, with revenue exceeding 10 billion yuan and significant profit growth, indicating robust market positioning and operational efficiency [1][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 10.778 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.552 billion yuan, up 30.0% year-on-year [1]. - For Q1 2025, revenue reached 2.359 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.1% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 390 million yuan, a 28.9% increase year-on-year [1]. - The company maintained over 20% profit growth in both Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, benefiting from improved gross margins and cost control [1]. Product Strategy - The company has been reinforcing its "big product strategy" since 2024, focusing on upgrading core product lines and launching new products targeting specific consumer needs, such as whitening and oil control [2]. - The upgrades to existing product lines and the introduction of new series are expected to drive continued double-digit growth on the foundation of over 10 billion yuan in revenue [2]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 12.584 billion yuan, 14.440 billion yuan, and 16.302 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 16.75%, 14.75%, and 12.89% [3]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 1.821 billion yuan, 2.121 billion yuan, and 2.440 billion yuan, with growth rates of 17.33%, 16.47%, and 15.06% [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 4.60 yuan, 5.35 yuan, and 6.16 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [3].

Group 1: Market Overview - A-shares experienced a decline with a trading volume of 1.07 trillion yuan, while the largest consumer ETF (159928) slightly dropped by 0.37% with a trading volume of nearly 300 million yuan, indicating high trading activity [1] - Over the past 60 days, there has been a continuous inflow of funds into consumer stocks, totaling nearly 2.6 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Company Performance - Proya, a leading domestic beauty brand, has gained market attention due to its impressive annual and quarterly reports, achieving a consecutive increase in stock price [3] - Proya's revenue for 2024 is projected to reach 10.234 billion yuan, with online sales accounting for 95.06% of total revenue, reflecting strong organizational efficiency and brand growth potential [3][4] - In Q1 2024, Proya's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 29% year-on-year, showcasing improved operational quality [4] Group 3: Consumer Sector Earnings - Wuliangye reported Q1 2024 revenue of 36.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.05%, with a net profit of 14.86 billion yuan, also up by 5.8% [5] - Among the 41 constituent stocks of the consumer ETF (159928), 22 have released Q1 reports, with 14 showing positive year-on-year growth in net profit, representing 64% [5][7] - Major companies like Muyuan Foods and Wen's Foodstuffs have turned profitable, with net profit growth exceeding 200% [5] Group 4: Financial Metrics - The consumer ETF (159928) has seen a net inflow of nearly 2.6 billion yuan over the past 60 days, with the latest share count reaching nearly 19 billion, maintaining historical highs [8] - The constituent index of the consumer ETF achieved a record net profit of 191.9 billion yuan in the first three quarters of the previous year, marking a year-on-year growth of 29.44% [8] - The latest price-to-earnings ratio for the consumer ETF is 20.37, which is at a low valuation compared to the past decade, indicating a favorable investment opportunity [8][10]

整理 ｜ 彭倩 #Big News# 增长压力之下，雀巢中国换帅 雀巢中国的首位本土 CEO 卸任。 近日，雀巢宣布现任雀巢大中华区董事长兼 CEO 张西强辞任，由现任菲律宾市场负责人马凯思 （Kais Marzouki）接替。这是雀巢集团自去年10月宣布不再将中国市场设立为独立大区后（今年1 月1日起生效），推出的一项人事调整举措。 由于中国市场曾表现颇佳，雀巢曾在2022年为其单独设立大中华区，张西强同年成为雀巢中国首位 本土CEO。中国是雀巢的第二大市场，一直被寄予厚望，张西强在上任时也曾为雀巢中国制定较为乐 观的增长计划：雀巢中国区要在2025年实现600亿小目标，在2030年实现1000亿大目标。 翻看过去3年的财报，雀巢中国区的体量分别为401.6亿元、436亿元和408.69亿元，遇到增长瓶 颈，与张西强曾制定的2025年达到600亿的目标也相差较大。 如今，全球消费市场正处于周期性波动，雀巢在内的一系列外资企业都需要更好的让产品适应当地市 场消费者需求和习惯的变化。 雀巢曾公开表示对中国市场的反思，前 CEO 施耐德曾表示，过去10年，雀巢在中国多项投资没有成 功，如对花生牛奶品牌银鹭的收购， ...

品牌矩阵中，彩妆品牌彩棠为第二大收入来源，营收达到11.91亿元，同比增长19.04%，但其在2023年 和2022年的同比增速高达75.06%和132.04%，这一数据断崖式下跌也与近两三年来彩妆消费市场疲软有 关。不过，另一个新秀彩妆品牌"原色波塔"在今年的销售额甚是亮眼，营收达到1.14亿元，同比增长 138.36%，该品牌在2023年之前都是并入了其他品牌计算，今年才得以单独计算业绩。除了化妆品，珀 莱雅旗下的洗护品牌Off&Relax的营收增速在近两年一直保持在70%左右，是珀莱雅矩阵品牌下增速表 现最为稳定的，其对总营收的贡献占比也相比于其他品牌有显著的逐年上升的趋势，从2022年的1.98% 提升至3.42%。 线上渠道对营收贡献大，但拖累盈利水平 2024年珀莱雅在线上渠道经营能力依然突出。2024年线上的业务收入达到102.34亿元，同比增长 23.68%，其占到总营收的比例在逐年攀升，2022年-2024年分别占比为90.98%、93.07%和95.06%。线上 渠道的优势也可以从具体品牌的销售情况看到。2024年度，珀莱雅天猫旗舰店成交金额首次跃居天猫美 妆第1，获抖音美妆排名第2，获京 ...