随着市场情绪转暖,双硅价格震荡向上。首先是当前国内经济韧性, 地产短期企稳复苏迹象明显,其次是板块轮动效应强 化,黑色受低估值强支撑,再者是市场资金充盈,流动性推动叙事不可小觑,而产业情绪谨慎,中下游低库存,补库需求释 放可期。需求端,直接需求和终端需求整体平淡,需求端短期暂时难有改善。供给端,整体合金厂利润不佳,但产量依旧偏 高。合金厂自身减产或控产的驱动不足,中期供给过剩压力仍不减。宏观方面,国内宏观政策加速出台,岁末年初稳经济需 求下,刺激政策利好为主。"双碳"和反内卷目标下,产业政策对双硅的供给形成扰动和成本支撑预期。总体看来,近期双 硅基本面延续承压,供给偏高而需求走弱。但短期市场情绪主导为主,双硅价格或偏强震荡 as ■ 焦煤基差(右轴) 大津港:库提价:主焦煤(蒙古,A10%,V27% 期货收盘价(活跃合约 400 3000 2500 200 500 ■ 焦炭基差(右轴) - 青岛港:出库价(含税):准一级冶金焦(A13,SO - 期货收益价(活跃合约):焦 1200 1000 | 铁矿基差(右轴) | 800 【焦煤焦炭】产业淡季驱动不足,跟随叙事震荡运行 | E .. . | 国贸期货出品 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Steel market is following market risk appetite and sentiment, with attention on short - term long opportunities around the blast furnace cost. There are still inventory build - up issues, but the 3100 level of the rebar 10 - contract represents the blast furnace static cost and provides support for iron - water production before the peak demand season is falsified [4]. - The "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" has a limited impact on ferrosilicon and silicomanganese. Although the basic supply - demand of double - silicon is resilient, the high inventory still poses a de - stocking pressure. The industry's average profit has been significantly repaired [5][6]. - The coking coal and coke market is expected to be weak and volatile. The eighth round of coke price increase has not been implemented, and there are expectations of 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts in September. Mid - line investors in long positions should wait for the first round of coke price cut news [7]. - The iron ore price increase is restricted by supply increments in the second half of the year and future capacity release expectations. However, the impact of policies on the steel sector may be greater than the price itself, and the support for the 01 - contract iron ore is still effective [8]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On August 28, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3205 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan or 0.79%; HC2601 closed at 3372 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan or 0.78%; I2605 closed at 765.5 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan or 1.46%; J2605 closed at 1760 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan or 0.45%; JM2605 closed at 1222 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan or 1.50%. For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 3129 yuan/ton, up 917 yuan or 0.55%; HC2510 closed at 3385 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan or 0.83%; I2601 closed at 790.5 yuan/ton, up 13.5 yuan or 1.74%; J2601 closed at 1672.5 yuan/ton, down 8.5 yuan or 0.51%; JM2601 closed at 1175 yuan/ton, down 10.5 yuan or 0.90% [1]. - The cross - month spreads, spreads/ratios/profits, and basis also had corresponding changes on August 28 [1]. Spot Market - On August 28, Shanghai rebar was priced at 3280 yuan/ton, Tianjin rebar at 3240 yuan/ton, Guangzhou rebar at 3290 yuan/ton, Tangshan billet at 3020 yuan/ton, and the Platts Index at 103.9. Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3410 yuan/ton, and prices in other regions also had different performances. Other spot prices such as those of coking coal and coke also had specific values and changes [1]. Steel - The steel market is still in a situation of inventory build - up, but the 3100 level of the rebar 10 - contract provides support. It is recommended to go short - term long around 3100 with the previous low as the stop - loss point, and conduct positive - spread rolling operations in the futures - cash market [4][9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan" has limited impact. The supply - demand is resilient, but high inventory requires de - stocking. The industry profit has been repaired [5][6]. Coking Coal and Coke - The spot trading atmosphere has weakened, the eighth round of coke price increase has not been implemented, and there are expectations of price cuts in September. It is recommended to pay attention to whether the impact of mine accidents spreads, and industrial customers can consider hedging opportunities on price rallies [7][9]. Iron Ore - The steel apparent demand is rising, but inventory build - up may continue. The iron ore price increase is restricted by supply increments, but policy impacts may be significant, and the support for the 01 - contract iron ore is still effective [8].

市场分析认为，"双硅"仍旧面临供应充足、行业库存尚待消纳的弱势基本面，短期价格拉涨受到情绪影响较为明显。 但与此同时，焦煤的政策端利多更为确定，加上焦炭二轮、三轮现货价格提涨预期强烈，双焦价格上涨受到的基本面支撑更为明确。展望后市，部分机构观 点认为，焦煤在前期明显超跌的状态下，随着供应端收紧预期升温、需求端稳增长政策持续推出，供给、需求预期共振有望驱动板块迎来新一轮上涨机会。 另外，"反内卷"也逐渐扩散至农产品板块。当日受一则"农业农村部畜牧兽医局拟召开推动生猪产业高质量发展座谈会"的消息影响，生猪市场产能收缩预期 升温，期价早盘大幅拉涨，盘中一度涨超5%，远月合约更是触及涨停。不过，机构提示，季节性影响下当前对猪肉消费积极性不足，供大于求的迹象依然 明显，这也令近期猪价上行受限。 其他品种方面，贵金属稳步走高，23日盘中在海外银价冲高的背景下，沪银主力合约再创上市以来新高。 新华财经北京7月23日电 国内商品期货市场7月23日涨跌互现，其中焦煤主力合约收盘涨停，涨幅11.00%；多晶硅主力合约涨超5%；焦炭主力合约涨超3%； 生猪、红枣、纸浆、菜粕、沪银、烧碱主力合约涨超1%。下跌品种方面，碳酸锂主力合约 ...