1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The real - world and expected scenarios are in a state of game, leading to a differentiated performance in the sector. The cost side disturbances may be repeated, and continuous attention should be paid to geopolitical and iron ore supply - side disturbances. The bullish expectations for the peak season are cautious, and the upward driving force from the real - world side remains to be verified. If the geopolitical conflict persists, price support will be strong; if it eases, prices may face a correction [1][2][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: The ongoing US - Iran conflict and the tight liquidity of some spot varieties support the futures and spot prices of iron ore. However, the overall de - stocking is difficult to achieve due to the loose supply - demand situation, which suppresses the upside valuation of prices. Iron ore is expected to show an oscillatory performance. The short - term trend depends on the spot liquidity of some varieties and the development of the US - Iran conflict, and recent fluctuations may increase [2][9] - **Scrap Steel**: The short - term arrival of scrap steel remains stable overall, and the demand from long - process steelmaking is slowly recovering. The fundamentals continue to be in a weak equilibrium, and it is expected to operate in an oscillatory manner in the short term. Attention should be paid to the actual recovery progress of terminal demand [2][10] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: In the short term, both supply and demand of coke are increasing, and the resumption of iron - making production may be faster. There is still support from the spot cost side. After the first round of spot price increase is implemented, it is expected to remain stable, and the futures price is expected to follow the cost side of coking coal [3][11] - **Coking Coal**: The trading logic of coking coal futures is shifting from energy substitution to warehouse - receipt delivery. With the decline in restocking demand, continuous import pressure, and the approaching delivery of the main contract, the futures price may be under pressure. However, geopolitical disturbances will still support the futures price, and it is expected to operate in a wide - range oscillation [3][12] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Geopolitical disturbances continue, and the expectations of rising manganese ore import costs and electricity costs for high - energy - consuming products are difficult to disprove. However, considering the loose supply - demand situation, high inventory, and difficult cost transfer in the manganese - silicon market, there is still a risk of correction in the medium - to - long - term valuation above the cost level [3][14][15] - **Silicon Iron**: Geopolitical disturbances continue, and the expectation of increasing electricity costs for high - energy - consuming products is difficult to disprove. However, the problem of over - capacity in the silicon - iron industry is serious. The continuous repair of industry profits may accelerate the resumption of production by manufacturers, leading to a more relaxed supply - demand relationship. In the medium - to - long - term, there is a risk of correction when the futures valuation is significantly higher than the comprehensive cost of manufacturers [6][16] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventory of middle and downstream is moderately high. Currently, the supply - demand situation is still in surplus. If production and sales do not improve continuously, high inventory will always suppress prices [6][13] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [6][14] 3.5 Steel - The cost performance is differentiated, and the futures price operates in an oscillatory manner. The spot transaction has improved, the steel mill profitability has increased, and the production is gradually returning to normal. The downstream demand is slowly releasing, and the inventory is decreasing, but the overall inventory level is still moderately high. The impact of the decline in Iranian steel supply is limited in the short term. The futures price still has downward pressure, but cost - side disturbances may be repeated [8] 3.6 Commodity Index - On March 30, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities, the commodity 20 index, and the industrial products index increased by 0.96%, 1.01%, and 1.10% respectively. The steel industry chain index increased by 0.33% on that day, decreased by 1.20% in the past 5 days, increased by 6.47% in the past month, and increased by 2.87% since the beginning of the year [100][102]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [7] 2. Core View of the Report - Cost - end disturbances are frequent, and the high - level prices on the futures market are loosening. The prices of coking coal and coke have fallen following the high - level decline of crude oil due to repeated geopolitical conflicts. The futures market of iron ore has weakened as the market expects the liquidity restrictions on some iron ore spot varieties to loosen. The alloy prices have first declined and then risen. Currently, steel inventories are at a high level, and the expectation for the peak season is still cautious. The futures market is under pressure due to the loosening cost support. The cost - end disturbances may recur, and it is necessary to continue to monitor the geopolitical and iron ore supply - end disturbances [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: The ongoing US - Iran conflict and the tight liquidity of some spot varieties support the futures and spot prices of iron ore. However, the overall de - stocking is difficult to achieve due to the loose supply - demand situation, which suppresses the upside valuation of prices. Iron ore is expected to show an oscillatory performance. In the short term, the arrival of scrap steel is generally stable, but the recovery of long - process demand is slow, and the fundamentals continue to be in a weak balance, so it is expected to operate oscillatory in the short term [3] - **Scrap Steel**: In the short term, the arrival of scrap steel is generally stable, but the recovery of long - process demand is slow, and the fundamentals continue to be in a weak balance. It is expected to operate oscillatory in the short term. The actual recovery progress of terminal demand needs to be focused on in the future [11] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: In the short term, the supply and demand of coke both increase, and the resumption speed of hot metal may be faster. The price of the spot cost - end continues to rise, and the expectation of the spot price increase of coke is strong. The futures market is expected to still follow the coking coal at the cost - end. Under continuous geopolitical disturbances, the energy substitution logic will still be the focus of trading in the coking coal futures market. In the short term, coking coal and coke are prone to rise and difficult to fall. However, if the geopolitical conflict eases and trading returns to the fundamentals, there will still be callback pressure on the coking coal and coke futures market [4] - **Coking Coal**: Under continuous geopolitical disturbances, the energy substitution logic will still be the focus of trading in the coking coal futures market. In the short term, coking coal and coke are prone to rise and difficult to fall. However, if the geopolitical conflict eases and trading returns to the fundamentals, there will still be callback pressure on the coking coal and coke futures market [14] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Under the current geopolitical environment, the logic of pushing up the import cost of manganese ore and the expectation of rising electricity costs for high - energy - consuming varieties are difficult to disprove. However, based on the fundamentals of loose supply - demand, high inventories, and difficult cost transmission of manganese silicon, in the medium - to - long term, there is still a callback risk for the valuation level above the cost on the futures market [4] - **Silicon Iron**: Under the current geopolitical environment, the expectation of rising electricity costs for high - energy - consuming varieties in the future is difficult to disprove. However, the problem of over - capacity in silicon iron is still relatively serious. The continuous repair of industry profits may accelerate the resumption of production by manufacturers, gradually shifting the supply - demand relationship to a loose state. In the medium - to - long term, there is still a callback risk when the valuation on the futures market is significantly higher than the cost [4] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The supply of glass still has disturbance expectations, but the inventories of the middle and downstream are moderately high. From a fundamental perspective, the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If the production and sales cannot continue to improve, the high inventory will always suppress the price [4] - **Soda Ash**: The supply of soda ash is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the surplus pattern of supply will further intensify, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [4] 3.5 Specific Product Analysis - **Steel**: The cost support is loosening, and the futures market is under pressure. The spot trading volume has weakened. After the weakening of the impact of environmental protection restrictions, the hot metal output has rebounded rapidly, and the electric furnace output has gradually recovered to the pre - holiday level. The overall supply of the five major steel products has rebounded from a low level, mainly in the building materials category. The demand for steel products has shown resilience, and the inventory has started to decline, but the overall inventory level is still moderately high, and there are limited bright spots in the fundamentals [9] - **Iron Ore**: The market expects the liquidity restrictions on some spot varieties to loosen, and the futures market has weakened. Overseas mine shipments have increased month - on - month, and the arrivals this period have recovered month - on - month. The rhythm of shipments and arrivals is still fluctuating. The demand side has some room for recovery, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. The US - Iran conflict and the tight liquidity of some varieties support the futures and spot prices, but the loose supply - demand suppresses the upside valuation, and it is expected to oscillate [9][10] - **Scrap Steel**: The fundamentals continue to be in a weak balance, and the spot market operates oscillatory. The supply is generally stable, the short - process demand has recovered rapidly, but the long - process demand has recovered slowly. The inventory is still at a relatively low level. It is expected to operate oscillatory in the short term, and the actual recovery progress of terminal demand needs to be focused on [11] - **Coke**: The cost continues to rise, and the expectation of price increase is strong. The supply has increased slightly, the demand has good support, and the upstream inventory has continued to decline slightly. The futures market is expected to follow the coking coal at the cost - end [13] - **Coking Coal**: The auction price continues to rise, and the futures market oscillates at a high level. The domestic supply has room for a small increase, the import supply pressure is high, the demand has increased, and the upstream inventory has continued to decline slightly. Under the energy substitution logic, the futures market is strong, and the spot price continues to rise. There is callback pressure if the geopolitical conflict eases [14] - **Glass**: The middle - stream inventory is high, and the price operates oscillatory. The supply may decline in the long term, the downstream demand has not recovered, the middle - and downstream inventories are high, and the high inventory suppresses the price. It is expected to oscillate, and if the production and sales cannot improve, the price will be under pressure [15] - **Soda Ash**: The inventory in the delivery warehouse has accumulated, and the price operates oscillatory. The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, the demand is relatively stable, the overall supply - demand is in surplus, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline [15][18] - **Manganese Silicon**: It follows the energy to bottom out and rebound, and attention should be paid to the evolution of the geopolitical situation. The cost is expected to rise, the demand is expected to pick up, the supply may increase, the current supply - demand surplus pattern is difficult to reverse, and there is a callback risk for the valuation above the cost in the medium - to - long term [17][19] - **Silicon Iron**: The energy valuation bottoms out and rebounds, and the high - level support on the futures market is insufficient. The cost support is strong, the demand is expected to improve, the supply may increase, the supply - demand relationship may become looser, and there is a callback risk for the valuation above the cost in the medium - to - long term [20] 3.6 Index Information - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index is 2505.87, down 0.37%; the commodity 20 index is 2799.49, up 0.16%; the industrial products index is 2541.47, down 1.12% [105] - **Steel Industry Chain Index**: On March 25, 2026, the daily decline was 0.75%, the increase in the past 5 days was 1.99%, the increase in the past month was 6.85%, and the increase since the beginning of the year was 3.34% [107]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weakening expectation of Fed rate cuts and the strong atmosphere of stagflation trading. Although steel inventories have peaked and declined, the expectation for the peak season is cautious, and there is still inventory pressure in the industrial chain. The fundamentals have limited highlights, and the upward driving force for the market is insufficient. However, due to intensified geopolitical risks, the prices of coking coal and coke fluctuate more in line with crude oil, there are continuous disturbances on the supply side of iron ore, the liquidity of some spot varieties is expected to tighten, and there is still an upward expectation for hot metal production, so the cost side still has support. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the disturbances from the geopolitical end and the iron ore supply side [1] - Overall, the expectation for the peak season is cautious, and the upward driving force from the real - end remains to be verified. Currently, there are still uncertainties in domestic and overseas macro - expectations and geopolitical disturbances. If geopolitical conflicts continue, price support will be strong; if they ease, prices may face a correction [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: In the short term, it is difficult to price the fundamentals of iron ore due to continuous supply - side and geopolitical disturbances, and it is expected to oscillate. In the medium to long term, the high - inventory pressure of iron ore is difficult to ease, and the overall pattern remains loose. If macro disturbances weaken, the fundamental pressure on iron ore will be large, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the medium term [1] - **Scrap Steel**: In the short term, the recovery rhythm of short - process demand is slightly faster than that of supply, and the fundamentals support the price. Recently, the spot performance of finished products has been relatively good, and it is expected to operate in an oscillatory manner in the short term. In the future, it is necessary to focus on the actual recovery progress of terminal demand [9] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: In the short term, both supply and demand of coke are increasing, the resumption speed of hot metal may be faster, and the cost - side price of the spot has increased, so the spot support for coke is strong. The market is expected to follow the cost - side coking coal [2] - **Coking Coal**: The resumption of coal mines is still restricted, but there is still real - world pressure on the fundamentals of coking coal due to high imports from Mongolia. It is less likely for the spot price to rise sharply. The current market price is more affected by domestic and overseas macro - expectations and geopolitical conflicts. If the geopolitical conflicts continue, it may follow the strong performance of crude oil prices; if they ease, it is expected to operate in an oscillatory manner [2] 3.3 Alloys - **Silicomanganese**: The supply - demand relaxation state of the silicomanganese market is difficult to reverse, the upstream inventory remains high, there is resistance to cost downward transmission, and there is obvious selling - hedging pressure above the market. The current market valuation is still at a relatively high level, and the futures price is at risk of correction [2][16] - **Ferrosilicon**: Although the market inventory pressure is limited and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, the continuous repair of profits may accelerate the resumption progress of manufacturers, making the supply - demand relationship gradually turn to relaxation and suppressing the upward space of prices. The current market valuation of ferrosilicon is still much higher than the comprehensive cost, and the futures price is at risk of a high - level correction [2][17] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventories of the mid - and downstream are moderately high. From the perspective of fundamentals, the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If the production and sales cannot improve continuously, the high inventory will always suppress the price [2] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to mainly oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [2] 3.5 Specific Product Analysis - **Steel**: The inventory has peaked and declined, but there are few highlights. The cost side still has some support, but the current steel inventory is high, and the expectation for the peak season is still cautious, so the upward driving force for prices is limited [7] - **Iron Ore**: The hot metal has recovered month - on - month, and port inventories have declined. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate; in the medium term, it is expected to oscillate weakly [7] - **Scrap Steel**: The daily consumption continues to rise, and the spot price has increased slightly. It is expected to operate in an oscillatory manner in the short term [9] - **Coke**: Both supply and demand have increased, and coke enterprises have slightly reduced their inventories. The market is expected to follow coking coal [10][11] - **Coking Coal**: Downstream procurement is strong, and coal mines continue to reduce their inventories. The spot price is less likely to rise sharply. If the geopolitical conflict continues, it may follow the strong performance of crude oil prices; if it eases, it is expected to operate in an oscillatory manner [12] - **Glass**: Supply cuts continue, and the upstream has slightly reduced its inventory. It is expected to operate in an oscillatory manner in the short term [13] - **Soda Ash**: Maintenance has affected production decline, and the supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the supply - surplus pattern will intensify in the long term [15] - **Silicomanganese**: The cost is operating firmly, and the market is under pressure above. The market is in a supply - demand relaxation state, and the futures price is at risk of correction [16] - **Ferrosilicon**: There is insufficient supply - demand driving force, and the market valuation is high. The supply - demand relationship may turn to relaxation, and the futures price is at risk of a high - level correction [17] 3.6 Index Information - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index was 2569.19, down 0.50%; the commodity 20 index was 2885.41, down 1.06%; the industrial products index was 2567.44, up 0.39% [101] - **Steel Industry Chain Index**: On March 19, 2026, the daily decline was 0.47%, the decline in the past 5 days was 0.58%, the increase in the past month was 3.85%, and the increase since the beginning of the year was 1.32% [103]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The weakening expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the lingering stagflation risk, along with cautious expectations for the peak season, inventory pressure in the industrial chain, and limited bright spots in the fundamentals, result in insufficient upward drive for the market. However, due to uncertainties in geopolitical conflicts, fluctuations in coking coal and coke prices following crude oil, continuous disturbances in the iron ore supply, tightened liquidity expectations for some spot varieties, and the expected increase in hot metal production, there is still support at the cost end. Attention should be paid to geopolitical and iron ore supply disturbances [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: In the short term, it is expected to oscillate due to supply and geopolitical disturbances. In the long - term, the high inventory pressure is difficult to ease, maintaining a loose pattern. If macro disturbances weaken, the fundamental pressure will be greater, and the medium - term performance is expected to be weakly oscillating [1] - **Scrap Steel**: The short - term supply - demand weakness has marginally improved, with demand recovery slightly faster than supply, providing some support for prices. It is expected to follow the rise of finished product prices in the short term, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the price rebound of finished products and the actual recovery progress of terminal demand [8] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: In the short term, both supply and demand are increasing, with hot metal复产 possibly faster. The cost - end price has risen, and the spot support is strong. The futures market is expected to follow the cost - end coking coal [2][10] - **Coking Coal**: The resumption of coal mines is still restricted, and the actual pressure on the fundamentals remains due to high Mongolian coal imports. The spot price is unlikely to rise significantly. The futures price is affected by macro expectations and geopolitical conflicts. It may be strong if the geopolitical conflict persists, and oscillate if it eases [2][11] 3.3 Alloys - **Ferromanganese Silicon**: The supply - demand situation remains loose, with high upstream inventory and resistance in cost transmission. There is significant selling pressure on the futures market, and the high - level valuation above the cost line has a callback risk [2][15] - **Silicon Iron**: The market inventory pressure is limited, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. However, the continuous repair of profits may accelerate the resumption of production, making the supply - demand relationship gradually turn loose and suppressing the upward price space. The current futures valuation is much higher than the comprehensive cost, and there is a risk of a high - level callback [2][17] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventory of middle and downstream is moderately high. The current supply - demand is still in surplus. If production and sales do not improve continuously, high inventory will always suppress prices [2][5][12] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply - demand is in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the supply surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline, promoting capacity reduction [2][5][14] 3.5 Steel - The inventory pressure remains, and the upward drive is limited. The spot trading volume is average. After the weakening of environmental protection restrictions, hot metal production is expected to rise, and the overall supply of five major steel products is expected to recover from a low level. The demand shows resilience but lacks bright spots. The inventory is moderately high, and it will take time to ease the fundamental contradictions. The price upward drive is limited, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances and peak - season demand [7] 3.6 Commodity Index - On March 18, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures was 2581.98, down 0.38%; the commodity 20 index was 2916.20, down 0.36%; the industrial product index was 2557.35, down 0.31%. The steel industry chain index on March 18, 2026, had a daily increase of 0.08%, a 5 - day increase of 1.25%, a 1 - month increase of 4.31%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.80% [103][105]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [8] 2. Core View of the Report - In the first year of the 15th Five - Year Plan, there are still policy expectations, Sino - US trade consultations are progressing normally, and geopolitical conflicts have great uncertainties. The supply side of iron ore is constantly disturbed, and the iron ore price has strong support. However, the fundamentals in the off - season lack highlights, and the upside drive from the real - world end is limited. The prices of coking coal and coke fluctuate more with crude oil, and the price of glass and soda ash is under pressure. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the disturbances from the geopolitical end and the iron ore supply side [3][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron ore**: Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, and the arrival rhythm fluctuated. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate; in the medium and long term, the high - inventory pressure is difficult to relieve, and it is expected to oscillate weakly. If macro disturbances weaken, the fundamental pressure of iron ore will be greater [4][11] - **Scrap steel**: The supply - demand pattern of the scrap steel market has marginally improved, with demand recovering slightly faster than supply. The fundamentals provide some support for the price. In the short term, it is expected to follow the rise of finished product prices [4][13] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: In the short term, both supply and demand of coke increase, and the iron - making water production may recover faster. The spot price has strong support, and the futures price is expected to follow the cost - end coking coal [4][5][16] - **Coking coal**: The resumption of coal mines is still restricted, and the high import of Mongolian coal brings pressure. The spot price is unlikely to rise sharply. The futures price is affected by macro expectations and geopolitical conflicts. If the geopolitical conflict continues, it may be strong; if it eases, it is expected to oscillate [5][17] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese silicon**: The supply - demand of the manganese silicon market remains loose, with high upstream inventory. There is resistance in cost transmission, and there is a risk of high - level valuation correction above the cost line [5][22] - **Silicon iron**: The current supply - demand contradiction of the silicon iron market is limited, but the continuous repair of profits may accelerate the resumption of production, making the supply - demand relationship gradually turn to looseness. There is a risk of high - level price correction [5][23] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The supply has disturbance expectations, but the inventory of the middle and downstream is moderately high. The current supply - demand is still in surplus. If production and sales cannot improve continuously, high inventory will suppress the price [5][8][18] - **Soda ash**: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply - demand is in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline [5][8][21] 3.5 Steel - The downstream demand is slowly recovering, and the cost has certain support. However, the steel inventory is high, and the upside of the price is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to geopolitical disturbances and peak - season demand [10] 3.6 Commodity Index - On March 16, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures was 2607.75, down 0.63%; the commodity 20 index was 2943.75, down 1.02%; the industrial product index was 2578.45, down 0.05%. The steel industry chain index on March 16, 2026, had a daily decline of 0.50%, a 5 - day increase of 2.01%, a 1 - month increase of 2.69%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.40% [108][110]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical conflicts increase energy valuation, and the expectation of stable growth provides support for domestic demand. Steel mills are expected to resume production during the peak season, leading to strong cost support and firm prices in the sector. However, there are still inventory contradictions in steel products, and the peak - season expectations are cautious. High inventory pressure in iron ore is difficult to relieve, Mongolian coal imports are high, the supply - demand surplus in glass and soda ash remains unchanged, and the fundamentals of alloys provide limited support. Thus, the upward potential of the futures prices is restricted [1] - In the off - season, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the peak - season expectations are cautious. The upward driving force from the real - world situation is limited. Uncertainties such as domestic and overseas macro - expectations and geopolitical disturbances still exist, and the futures prices may fluctuate sharply. Attention should be paid to geopolitical risks and the fulfillment of peak - season demand [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Iron ore: The supply - side shipping has recovered but there are still expectations of disruptions. The high inventory pressure is difficult to relieve in the short term. With the Two Sessions and geopolitical disturbances, there are still macro uncertainties. Recently, commodities have shown strength. If macro disturbances weaken, the fundamental pressure on iron ore will be greater, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [1][8] - Scrap steel: The supply - demand pattern of the short - term scrap steel market, which was previously weak in both supply and demand, has marginally improved. The demand recovery rhythm is slightly faster than the supply, and the fundamentals provide some support for the price. Driven by the rise in finished - product prices, it is expected to follow the upward trend in the short term [9] 3.2 Carbon Element - Coke: In the short term, there are disturbances in hot metal production, but there is still long - term rigid demand support for coke. The possibility of multiple consecutive rounds of price cuts after the first round of spot price cuts is small. The futures prices are expected to follow the cost - side coking coal. If the geopolitical conflict persists, it may follow the energy prices and show strength; if the conflict eases, it is expected to maintain an oscillating operation [2][10] - Coking coal: The resumption of coal mine production is still restricted, but there is still real - world fundamental pressure on coking coal due to high Mongolian coal imports. The spot prices are expected to oscillate. The current futures prices are greatly affected by domestic and overseas macro - expectations and geopolitical conflicts. If the conflict persists, it may follow the crude oil prices and show strength; if the conflict eases, it is expected to maintain an oscillating operation [2][12] 3.3 Alloys - Manganese silicon: The supply - demand of the manganese silicon market is loose, the upstream inventory is high, and there are obstacles in cost transmission. There is obvious selling - hedging pressure above the futures prices. Attention should be paid to the risk of price correction when the futures prices rise above the cost line [2][15] - Ferrosilicon: Currently, there is not much supply - demand contradiction in ferrosilicon, but the continuous repair of profits may accelerate the resumption of production by manufacturers, making the supply - demand relationship gradually turn loose. The current futures valuation is higher than the comprehensive cost of ferrosilicon, and attention should be paid to the risk of high - level price correction [2][17] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of supply disruptions, but the inventories of middle - and downstream enterprises are moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If the production and sales cannot improve continuously, the high inventory will always suppress the price [2][13] - Soda ash: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [2][15] 3.5 Specific Product Analysis - Steel: There is still cost support, and the futures prices have risen slightly. After the festival, downstream demand has gradually started, and price rebounds have stimulated the entry of futures - spot traders and rigid - demand replenishment. However, the overall supply level is low, demand is at a low level, and inventories are accumulating. The upward potential of prices is limited, and attention should be paid to the peak - season demand [7] - Iron ore: The fundamentals have limited changes, and the futures prices oscillate. Overseas mine shipping has decreased, arrivals have increased, demand has declined in the short term but is expected to recover seasonally later. The inventory has increased slightly, and the futures prices oscillate. If macro disturbances weaken, the fundamentals will face greater pressure [7][8] - Scrap steel: The supply - demand has marginally improved, and the spot prices have risen slightly. Supply recovery is slow, demand has recovered faster, and inventories have decreased. It is expected to follow the upward trend in the short term, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the finished - product price rebound and the actual recovery progress of terminal demand [9] - Coke: The fundamentals have limited changes, and the futures prices follow the oscillation. After the first round of price cuts, supply has decreased slightly, demand has rigid support, and inventories have accumulated at a slower pace. The futures prices follow the cost - side coking coal [10] - Coking coal: There is still a geopolitical premium, and the futures prices follow the oscillation. Supply has basically recovered, imports are high, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is general. The spot prices are expected to oscillate, and the futures prices are affected by macro and geopolitical factors [12] - Glass: The improvement in sentiment has driven the production and sales of spot products, and the upstream expects to reduce inventories. Supply may decline in the long term, demand has not fully recovered, and middle - stream inventories are large, suppressing the futures valuation. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [13] - Soda ash: Driven by the increase in energy costs, the price center has rebounded. Supply is stable at a high level, demand is stable, and the supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the long term [13][15] - Manganese silicon: The cost remains high, and the futures prices oscillate strongly. The cost has support, supply is relatively loose, demand recovery is slow, and there is selling - hedging pressure above the futures prices. Attention should be paid to the risk of price correction [15] - Ferrosilicon: The futures valuation is high, and attention should be paid to the risk of price correction. The cost has support, demand recovery is slow, supply is expected to increase, and the current futures valuation is higher than the cost. Attention should be paid to the risk of high - level price correction [17] 3.6 Index Information - On March 11, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures was 2565.65, a decrease of 0.28%; the commodity 20 index was 2921.03, a decrease of 0.32%; the industrial products index was 2484.54, a decrease of 1.01% [102] - The steel industry chain index on March 11, 2026, had a daily increase of 0.06%, a 5 - day increase of 1.85%, a 1 - month decrease of 0.24%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.55% [104]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical risks have intensified, leading to an increase in energy valuations and rising shipping costs, which strengthen the cost - side support and drive up the prices of the black building materials sector. However, the current situation in the off - season is lackluster. There are still inventory contradictions in steel, high inventory pressure in iron ore is difficult to alleviate, Mongolian coal imports remain high, the supply - demand surplus in the glass and soda ash market remains unchanged, and the fundamentals of alloys lack support. The expectation for the peak season is still cautious, causing prices to fall after a short - term increase [1]. - With many disturbances such as domestic and overseas macro - expectations and geopolitical conflicts, if the geopolitical conflicts continue, the futures prices will still have an upward drive. But as it is still the off - season, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the peak - season expectation is cautious. Once the external disturbances weaken, there will be a risk of price correction at high levels. Attention should be paid to geopolitical risks and the realization of peak - season demand [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments have decreased month - on - month, while arrivals have significantly increased. The high inventory pressure is difficult to ease in the short term. With the Two Sessions and geopolitical disturbances, there are uncertainties in the macro environment. If macro disturbances weaken, the fundamental pressure on iron ore will be large. It is expected to oscillate weakly [1][7][8]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply - demand pattern of the scrap steel market has marginally improved, with demand recovering slightly faster than supply. The fundamentals provide some support for prices. Driven by the rise in finished - product prices, scrap steel is expected to follow the upward trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the rebound in finished - product prices and the actual recovery progress of terminal demand [1][9]. 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: In the short term, there are disturbances in hot metal production, but there is still long - term rigid demand support for coke. After the first round of spot price cuts, the possibility of continuous multiple - round cuts is small. The futures market is expected to follow the cost - side coking coal. If geopolitical conflicts continue, it may be strong following energy prices; if the conflicts ease, it is expected to oscillate [2][10]. - **Coking Coal**: The resumption of coal mines is still restricted, but the high imports of Mongolian coal put pressure on the fundamentals. Spot prices are expected to oscillate. The current futures prices are affected by many factors such as domestic and overseas macro - expectations and geopolitical conflicts. If the conflicts continue, it may follow the upward trend of crude oil prices; if the conflicts ease, it is expected to oscillate [2][11]. 3.3 Alloys - **Silicomanganese**: The silicomanganese market has strong supply and weak demand, with insufficient fundamental support. There are resistance in cost - side transmission, and high upstream inventory leads to significant selling - hedging pressure on the futures market. When futures prices rise above the cost line, the risk of correction should be guarded against [2][15]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply - demand drive in the ferrosilicon market is limited. The continuous repair of industry profits may accelerate the resumption of production by manufacturers, weakening the supply - demand relationship. When the futures valuation recovers above the cost line, the risk of high - level correction should be vigilant [2][16]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventories of middle and downstream are moderately high. Currently, the supply - demand is in surplus. If there is no obvious improvement in demand after the Lantern Festival, high inventories will always suppress prices [2][5][12]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply - demand is in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the supply - surplus pattern will intensify, the price center will decline, and capacity will be reduced [2][5][14]. 3.5 Other Information - **Steel**: The cost support is strong, and the futures market is firm. Spot market transactions have warmed up, but the overall demand is still at a low level. Steel inventory continues to accumulate, and the fundamental contradiction needs time to ease. The futures market has an upward drive but is limited. Attention should be paid to peak - season demand [7]. - **Commodity Index**: On March 9, 2026, the comprehensive index, special index (including commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial product index), and plate index (such as the steel industry chain index) of CITIC Futures all had different degrees of increase or decline. For example, the comprehensive index increased by 2.93%, the commodity 20 index increased by 2.55%, and the industrial product index increased by 3.87%. The steel industry chain index increased by 2.51% on the day, 3.54% in the past 5 days, - 0.37% in the past month, and 0.37% since the beginning of the year [102][103].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Mid - term outlook: The overall outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the upcoming Two Sessions and geopolitical disturbances, the expectation of rising energy valuations is increasing, leading to a low - level upward repair of coking coal, alloys, and glass - soda ash futures prices. However, the off - season fundamentals lack highlights, with steel and iron ore inventories still under pressure, so the upward driving force for steel and iron ore prices is limited, and they will mainly operate in an oscillatory manner. Overall, it is still the off - season, the fundamentals lack highlights, the peak - season expectations are still cautious, the driving force for the futures price increase is limited, and there is a risk of a high - level correction after the price increase. Attention should be paid to the policy orientation of important meetings and the fulfillment of peak - season demand [1][2][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments have recovered and are at a high level, and the pressure of high shipments and high inventories is difficult to ease in the short term. Although there are uncertainties in the macro - environment due to the upcoming Two Sessions and geopolitical disturbances, after the Spring Festival, the weight of fundamental pricing is expected to increase. After the weakening of macro - disturbances, the fundamental pressure is still large, and iron ore is expected to oscillate weakly. The port inventory has increased, and the pressure on the inventory is still there. During the Two Sessions, some regions will implement production restrictions, which will affect the recovery rhythm of molten iron. Attention should be paid to the support strength of post - festival demand [2][7][8] - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak, the fundamental driving force is limited, and the price fluctuation is small. The supply is gradually recovering, and it is expected to return to normal in about two weeks. The demand is at a seasonal low, and the inventory has decreased significantly during the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the policy expectations of important meetings and the actual demand situation [2][9] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: In the long run, there is a slight growth expectation for both supply and demand of coke. In the short term, although there are disturbances, the supply - demand structure of coke will continue to be healthy. However, the cost support of coking coal has weakened, and the expectation of spot price reduction is strong. The futures price is expected to follow the cost - end coking coal. The supply may decrease slightly during the Two Sessions, the demand has rigid support, and the inventory pressure is acceptable [2][9][10] - **Coking Coal**: After the Spring Festival, the resumption of production in coal mines will accelerate, but the supply level is still limited. The fundamentals of coking coal have pressure, but the overall contradiction is not prominent. The spot price is expected to run weakly and stably, while the futures price is expected to run in a wide - range oscillation affected by capital sentiment. The supply has recovered rapidly, the import is at a high level, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is average, and the market is in a wait - and - see mood [2][11] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The market has strong supply and weak demand, the fundamental support is insufficient, there is resistance in the downward transmission of the cost end, and the upstream inventory is high. There is obvious selling - hedging pressure above the futures price. When the futures price rises above the cost line, the risk of correction should be guarded against. The cost is rising, the demand recovery is slow, and the inventory may further accumulate [3][14] - **Silicon Iron**: The market has weak supply and demand, the fundamental contradiction is limited but the driving force is insufficient. Continuous price increases may accelerate the resumption of production of manufacturers, leading to a marginal weakening of the supply - demand relationship. There is a risk of high - level correction when the futures valuation is quickly repaired above the cost line. The cost support is strengthening, the demand recovery is slow, and the manufacturers' willingness to resume production is increasing [3][15] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The supply has a disturbance expectation, but the inventories of the middle and downstream are moderately high. The current supply - demand is still in surplus. If the demand does not improve significantly after the Lantern Festival, the high inventory will always suppress the price. The supply may decline in the long run, the downstream demand has not recovered, and the inventory pressure is large [3][12] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction. The supply is stable, the demand is weak, and the high inventory and high supply always suppress the price [3][12] 3.5 Steel - The spot market is gradually recovering, but the overall production is at a low level. The demand is also at a low level, and the inventory is still accumulating. The fundamental contradiction has not been alleviated. Affected by the upcoming Two Sessions and geopolitical disturbances, the macro - environment is still uncertain. The futures price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the policy expectations of important meetings and the recovery of demand [7] 3.6 Commodity Index - On March 3, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities showed that the commodity index was 2482.90, up 1.00%; the commodity 20 index was 2847.65, up 0.83%; the industrial products index was 2364.70, up 1.43%. The steel industry chain index on the same day was 1915.51, with a daily increase of 0.33%, a 5 - day increase of 0.23%, a 1 - month decrease of 3.74%, and a year - to - date decrease of 3.06% [100][102]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the overall black building materials industry is "oscillation" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - Currently in the off - season, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the expectations for the peak season are still cautious. The futures market is expected to face pressure. Attention should be paid to the policy orientation of important meetings and the realization of peak - season demand [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments are at a high level, and the pressure of high shipments and high inventories is difficult to ease in the short term. After the Spring Festival, the pricing weight of fundamentals is expected to increase. After the weakening of macro - disturbances, the fundamental pressure is still large. It is expected to oscillate weakly [1][7] - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand are both weak, the fundamental driving force is limited, and the price fluctuation is small. Attention should be paid to the policy expectations of important meetings and the actual demand [8] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: After the Spring Festival, both supply and demand are expected to increase slightly, and the supply - demand structure will remain healthy. However, there may be short - term disturbances on the demand side. With the weakening of coking coal cost support, there is an expectation of price reduction for spot goods. The futures market is expected to follow the cost - end coking coal [2][10] - **Coking Coal**: After the Spring Festival, the resumption of coal mines will accelerate, but the supply level is still limited. The fundamentals have pressure, but the overall contradiction is not prominent. The spot is expected to run weakly and stably, and the futures market is expected to run with wide - range oscillations affected by capital sentiment [2][11] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The market has strong supply and weak demand, and the upstream inventory is high. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face obvious selling - hedging pressure. It is expected that the manganese silicon futures price will fluctuate around the cost valuation [2][14] - **Silicon Iron**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the fundamental contradiction is not significant. After the futures valuation is repaired to near the cost, the driving force for further upward movement is insufficient. It is difficult for the silicon iron futures price to maintain a high level [2][15] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The supply has an expectation of increase, and the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. The current supply and demand are still in surplus. If the demand does not improve significantly after the Lantern Festival, the high inventory will always suppress the price [2][12] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply and demand are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will decline [2][12] 3.5 Steel - After the Spring Festival, the supply and demand are both weak, the inventory is still accumulating, the fundamental contradiction has not been alleviated, and the expectations for the peak season are still cautious. The futures market is expected to run under pressure. Attention should be paid to the policy expectations of important meetings and the recovery of demand [7] 3.6 Commodity Index - On March 2, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities increased by 1.60% to 2458.25, the commodity 20 index increased by 1.76% to 2824.14, and the industrial products index increased by 1.48% to 2331.34. The steel industry chain index increased by 0.35% on that day, 0.87% in the past 5 days, - 4.40% in the past month, and - 3.38% since the beginning of the year [100][102]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of steel are both weak, inventory is still accumulating, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the market's expectation for peak - season demand is average. The inventory pressure of iron ore remains, the resumption of coal mines after the Spring Festival will accelerate, the downstream replenishment willingness of coking coal is limited, and the supply - demand pressure of glass and soda ash remains. The prices of related varieties are under pressure. Affected by the news of South African manganese ore, the alloy futures market is strong, but it will face obvious selling - hedging pressure when the price rises to a high level [1] - Currently in the off - season, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the peak - season expectation is still cautious. The futures market still has downward adjustment pressure. Attention should be paid to the policy orientation of important meetings and the realization of peak - season demand [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Iron ore: The supply side still has expectations of weather disturbances. The current market has average expectations for post - festival demand, but the pressure has been released after the rapid decline of the futures market. With the upcoming Two Sessions after the Spring Festival, there are still macro expectations. Attention should be paid to changes in market sentiment. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [7] - Scrap steel: The supply and demand are both weak in the short term, the fundamental driving force is limited, and the price fluctuates little. Attention should be paid to the policy expectations of important meetings and actual demand in the future [8] Carbon Element - Coke: After the Spring Festival, both supply and demand are expected to continue to grow. As logistics and transportation gradually recover, the inventory accumulation of coking enterprises will be alleviated. The supply - demand structure will remain healthy. The spot price is expected to remain stable, and the futures market is expected to follow the cost - end coking coal [11] - Coking coal: After the Spring Festival, the resumption of coal mines will accelerate, but the supply level is still limited. The fundamental contradiction of coking coal is not prominent. The spot price is expected to oscillate, and the futures market is expected to oscillate widely under the influence of capital sentiment [12] Alloys - Manganese silicon: The market has strong supply and weak demand, and the upstream inventory is high. The futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation. Attention should be paid to the adjustment range of manganese ore prices and the production control efforts of manufacturers [15] - Ferrosilicon: The supply and demand are both weak, the fundamental contradiction is not large, but there is no obvious upward driving force in the futures market. The futures price is expected to fluctuate at a low level around the cost valuation. Attention should be paid to the adjustment range of semi - coke prices and electricity costs, as well as the changes in the production start - up level of manufacturers [17] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The supply still has disturbance expectations, but the inventory of middle and downstream is moderately high. The current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair, the high inventory will always suppress the price. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [13] - Soda ash: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply and demand are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [13] Other Information - The report also provides daily monitoring data of spot and futures indicators of black building materials varieties, including spot prices, basis, and futures market profits of various varieties [20] - The report shows the commodity index and plate index of CITIC Futures on February 26, 2026, including the comprehensive index, characteristic index, and plate index, as well as their changes [102][104]