1. 铁元素方面：海外矿山发运环比明显减量，澳巴发运减少，非主 流发运有所增加，前两周到港减量后本期环比明显增加，压港情况有 所加重，船舶卸货排队时间延长，港口库存环比小幅下降，采购远期 现货的钢厂进口矿库存去化。钢联铁水小幅下降，大规模检修尚未出 现，短期铁水预计仍有支撑，铁矿补库需求仍有释放预期，铁矿价格 表现偏强。废钢供增需稳，基本面矛盾不突出，价格下降后性价比回 升，下方空间有限，预计废钢价格震荡。 2. 碳元素方面：利润修复叠加环保放松后焦炭供应企稳，短期钢厂 刚需支撑不减，总库存保持去化，但现货成本支撑持续转弱，市场提 降预期渐起，盘面预计跟随焦煤震荡运行。国内供应保持低位，焦煤 基本面暂未出现明显弱化，现货回调后下游冬储仍有补库预期，基本 面支撑仍在，盘面近月合约仍受到交割影响，预计价格保持震荡，远 月合约当前价格估值偏低，基本面对价格支撑较强，预计震荡偏强运 行。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-11-25 供给扰动叠加宏观情绪偏暖，板块低位 反弹 钢材基本⾯继续改善，同时12⽉中央经济⼯作会议即将召开，叠加 海外仍有降息预期，宏观环境 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [9] Report's Core View - The performance of furnace materials is differentiated, and the upward momentum of finished products is weak. Iron ore prices are strong due to the expected release of restocking demand, while coking coal and coke prices are weak. The fundamentals of finished products in the off - season have limited highlights, and the futures prices have limited upward momentum. If there are still positive releases from the macro and policy fronts later, the phased upward opportunities can still be concerned [3][4][8] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Industry Situation - The supply and demand of the industry are marginally weakening, in line with off - season characteristics. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term. If there are positive macro and policy factors, there may be phased upward opportunities [5][8] 2. Different Product Analysis 2.1 Iron Element Products - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments have increased, and the arrival volume has declined. The port inventory has slightly decreased. The daily average hot metal has recovered, but there is a seasonal weakening expectation. The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly. For example, the port transaction volume is 60.6(-15.2) million tons, the swap main contract is 104.4(+0.01) US dollars/ton, and the PB powder is 795(+3) yuan/ton [13][14] - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand are both weak. The arrival volume is low, and the total daily consumption has slightly decreased. The inventory of steel enterprises has slightly increased. It is expected that the price will oscillate with the finished products. The average price of East China crushed scrap is 2147(+1) yuan/ton, and the screw - scrap price difference in East China is 996(+8) yuan/ton [15] 2.2 Carbon Element Products - **Coke**: The supply is stable, the demand is supported, and the inventory is low. The cost support has weakened, and the price is temporarily in a dilemma. The futures price is expected to oscillate with coking coal. The quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port is quoted at 1490 yuan/ton (-30) [16] - **Coking Coal**: The supply is slowly recovering, the import is at a high level, and the demand has slowed down. The market sentiment has cooled down, and the price is expected to oscillate. The medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu is 1430 yuan/ton (0), and the Mongolian No. 5 clean coal in Wubulangkou Jinquan Industrial Park is 1378 yuan/ton (0) [17] 2.3 Alloy Products - **Manganese Silicon**: The cost support is strengthened, but the supply - demand is loose, and the upward pressure is large. It is expected to operate at a low level around the cost. The ex - factory price of Inner Mongolia 6517 is 5600 yuan/ton (0) [21] - **Silicon Iron**: The cost valuation is firm, but the supply - demand is loose, and the upward driving force is insufficient. It is expected to operate at a low level around the cost. The ex - factory price of Ningxia 72 silicon iron is 5150 yuan/ton (0) [22] 2.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The supply is disturbed, and the inventory is high. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, the price is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, it will rise. The mainstream large - plate price in North China is 1090 yuan/ton (-10), and the national average price is 1114 yuan/ton (-7) [18] - **Soda Ash**: The cost has increased, but the supply - demand is in excess. The short - term price is expected to oscillate, and the long - term price center will decline. The delivered price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe is 1170 yuan/ton (-) [20] 3. Steel Products - The third - round and fifth - batch of central ecological and environmental protection inspections may affect steel production in North China. The spot market transactions are weak, the steel mill profits are poor, the production has decreased, the demand has declined, and the inventory is still high year - on - year. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate widely. For example, the price of Hangzhou rebar is 3180 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil is 3260 (-30) yuan/ton [12] 4. Commodity Index - On November 18, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities decreased by 0.86% to 2234.87, the commodities 20 index decreased by 0.83% to 2534.70, and the industrial products index decreased by 0.88% to 2208.90. The steel industry chain index decreased by 0.98% on that day, increased by 0.40% in the past 5 days, increased by 1.22% in the past month, and decreased by 5.49% since the beginning of the year [103][105]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [6] Core View of the Report - Currently, the industry's supply - demand situation is marginally weakening, in line with the characteristics of the off - season. This fundamental pattern is expected to continue, providing limited guidance on price trends. In the short term, the market will maintain an oscillatory trend. If there are still positive macro and policy signals in the later stage, staged upward opportunities can be observed [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments have increased significantly on a month - on - month basis. Both Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream countries have seen growth. After reaching a peak, the arrival volume has continued to decline on a month - on - month basis. Port inventory has slightly decreased. Although iron ore replenishment demand has not been significantly released, there is still upward momentum in the short term after the previous rapid price decline. The supply - demand of scrap steel is weak on both sides, and it is expected that the short - term spot price will fluctuate with the finished products [2] Carbon Element - After the lifting of environmental protection restrictions, steel mills are still actively producing, and the demand for coke is still supported. After four rounds of price increases, coke prices are in a dilemma of rising or falling, and the coke futures price is expected to fluctuate with coking coal. The supply of coking coal is expected to remain sluggish. Although Mongolian coal imports may remain at a high level, the supply is limited. The fundamentals are still healthy, and the spot coal price is strongly supported, but the futures price is still suppressed by the finished products and the pressure of warehouse receipts is large. It is expected that the coking coal price will oscillate [3] Alloys - In the short term, the firm cost supports the price of ferromanganese - silicon, but the market supply - demand is loose, and there is insufficient driving force for price increases. The short - term cost trend strongly supports the price of ferrosilicon, but the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, and the price is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [3] Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of supply disruptions, but the inventory of middle and downstream enterprises is moderately high. Currently, the supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, high inventory will always suppress prices, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. The cost of the soda ash industry has increased, providing obvious bottom support. However, the surplus supply - demand pattern always suppresses price increases. Recently, the further weakening of glass prices has dragged down the expected price of soda ash. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate. In the long run, the surplus supply pattern will intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [3] Steel - The third round and fifth batch of central ecological and environmental protection inspections have started, which will affect steel production in North China. The spot market transactions are generally good, but the profitability of steel mills is poor, and the production volume has decreased significantly. The demand has declined from a high level, and the overall inventory of steel continues to decline, but the inventory level is still higher than the same period last year. It is expected that the futures will oscillate widely [7] Iron Ore - Port arrivals have declined on a month - on - month basis, and port inventory has slightly decreased. Overseas mine shipments have increased, and the average arrival volume is relatively stable. The daily average pig iron production has recovered on a month - on - month basis, but there is still a seasonal weakening expectation. The overall inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. In the short term, after the previous rapid price decline, it is expected to oscillate strongly [8] Scrap Steel - The arrival volume at steel mills has slightly increased this week. The demand for scrap steel in electric furnaces has slightly increased, while the demand in blast furnaces has decreased. The inventory of steel enterprises has slightly increased. The supply - demand of scrap steel is weak on both sides, but the price has a certain cost - performance after the decline, and it is expected to fluctuate with the finished products [9] Coke - After four rounds of price increases, the coking profit has improved, and the supply is temporarily stable. The demand is still supported, and the upstream inventory is low. In the short term, the supply - demand is still tight, and the inventory continues to decline, but the cost support has weakened. The futures price is expected to fluctuate with coking coal [11] Coking Coal - The supply is expected to remain sluggish. Although Mongolian coal imports may remain at a high level, the supply is limited. The fundamentals are still healthy, and the spot coal price is strongly supported, but the futures price is still suppressed by the finished products and the pressure of warehouse receipts is large. It is expected that the coking coal price will oscillate [13] Glass - The supply is expected to be disrupted. The inventory of middle and downstream enterprises is moderately high, and the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, high inventory will always suppress prices, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [13] Soda Ash - The cost of the soda ash industry has increased, providing obvious bottom support. However, the surplus supply - demand pattern always suppresses price increases. Recently, the further weakening of glass prices has dragged down the expected price of soda ash. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate. In the long run, the surplus supply pattern will intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [14] Ferromanganese - Silicon - The price of ferromanganese - silicon is supported by cost in the short term, but the market supply - demand is loose, and there is insufficient driving force for price increases. It is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [17] Ferrosilicon - The short - term cost trend strongly supports the price of ferrosilicon, but the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, and the price is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The contradictions in the black产业链 are still limited, and the steel market continues the pattern of weak supply and demand in the off - season. The inventory of rebar is decreasing, while the destocking of hot - rolled coils is not smooth. The increase in Tangshan's hot metal production corresponds to the previous concentrated resumption of blast furnaces, but considering the arrival of the maintenance season, hot metal output is expected to decline, and iron ore inventory will continue to increase marginally. Coke has no prominent contradictions and maintains a small - scale destocking. Although coking coal inventory has increased, it is mainly in the Mongolian coal import segment, and the overall inventory is low, so the downward pressure on coal prices is limited. Overall, the current industry's supply - demand situation is weakening marginally, and the short - term oscillation trend remains unchanged. If there are still positive releases from the macro and policy fronts in the later stage, attention can be paid to potential phased upward opportunities [2][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - After the resumption of work in Tangshan's blast furnaces last week, the output of hot metal in Tangshan has increased, driving up the national hot metal output. However, with the arrival of the steel mill maintenance season, especially in northern steel mills, maintenance plans have been announced one after another. Therefore, it is expected that hot metal output will continue to decline, and iron ore is likely to accumulate inventory, putting pressure on ore prices. In the short term, ore prices will maintain an oscillatory operation. The fundamentals of scrap steel show weak supply and demand, and it is expected that the short - term spot price will oscillate following the finished products [2] 3.2 Carbon Element - After the lifting of environmental protection restrictions, steel mills are still actively producing, and the demand for coke is still supported. Coupled with strong cost support, the expectation of a fourth round of price increases is high. The coke futures price is expected to oscillate following coking coal. The supply of coking coal is expected to remain tight. Although Mongolian coal imports may remain at a high level, the supplementary effect is limited. Although the downstream procurement is gradually slowing down, the fundamentals are still healthy, and the spot coal price is strongly supported. However, the futures price is still suppressed by finished products, and it is expected that coking coal prices will oscillate [3] 3.3 Alloys - In the short term, the firm cost supports the price of ferromanganese - silicon, but the market supply - demand situation is loose, and there is insufficient driving force for price increases. The short - term cost trend supports the price of ferrosilicon, but the market supply - demand relationship is also relatively loose, and the price is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [3] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of supply disruptions, but the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. The cost of the soda ash industry has increased, and the bottom support is obvious. However, the surplus supply - demand pattern always suppresses price increases. Recently, the weakening of glass prices has dragged down the expected price of soda ash. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the surplus supply pattern will intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [3][6][14] 3.5 Specific Product Analysis 3.5.1 Steel - The fundamentals show weak supply and demand, and the futures price oscillates at a low level. The spot market trading is average, mainly with low - price transactions. Recently, the profits of steel mills and electric furnaces are poor, the steel production has decreased significantly, and the demand has also declined. The overall steel inventory continues to decrease, but the inventory level is still higher than the same period last year, and there are still contradictions in the fundamentals. In the off - season, the demand is under pressure to weaken, and the futures valuation is low, with limited downward space. Attention should be paid to the potential upward driving force from the macro and policy aspects [7] 3.5.2 Iron Ore - The hot metal output has significantly recovered, and the inventory continues to accumulate. The spot price has weakened. The overseas mine shipping is relatively stable, and the arrival of ships has decreased. The daily average hot metal output has recovered, but there is still a seasonal weakening expectation. The port inventory has increased, and the overall inventory pressure is gradually accumulating. Although there is a seasonal weakening expectation for hot metal, the short - term increase in hot metal and the un - released restocking demand may lead to a short - term oscillatory strengthening. Attention should be paid to market sentiment and hot metal demand changes [7] 3.5.3 Scrap Steel - The daily consumption of steel mills has slightly decreased, and the price oscillates. The supply of scrap steel has decreased, and the demand is also weak. The total daily consumption of 255 steel mills has slightly decreased, and the inventory has slightly accumulated. It is expected that the short - term spot price will oscillate following the finished products [8] 3.5.4 Coke - The supply continues to decline, and the hot metal output has increased. The futures price oscillates at a low level. The supply has decreased due to high costs, environmental protection requirements, and some coke oven maintenance. The demand has increased as some blast furnaces have resumed full - production. The upstream coke enterprise inventory remains low. In the off - season, the supply - demand is weak, but the demand support still exists, and the fundamentals have few contradictions. After the lifting of environmental protection restrictions, the demand for coke is still supported, and the expectation of a fourth - round price increase is high. The futures price is expected to oscillate following coking coal [8][10][11] 3.5.5 Coking Coal - The supply recovery is limited, and the upstream inventory has slightly increased. The futures price oscillates at a low level. The supply is still tight due to production capacity restrictions in some coal mines. The Mongolian coal import is at a high level, but the high - quality resources are still scarce. The coke production has declined, and the downstream procurement has slowed down, but the upstream coal mine inventory has slightly increased with little pressure. The spot price is still firm. It is expected that the coking coal supply will remain tight, and the price will oscillate [12] 3.5.6 Glass - The destocking this week is limited. Attention should be paid to whether supply reduction through cold - repair can promote upstream destocking. The macro environment is neutral. The short - term supply has decreased, but the demand is weak, and the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is high, suppressing the price. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the price is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, it will rise [14] 3.5.7 Soda Ash - The spot trading is good, and the futures price oscillates. The macro environment is neutral. The supply has limited changes, and the demand is stable. The industry is in the stage of clearing at the bottom of the cycle. The cost support has strengthened, but the downstream demand is declining, and the expected surplus is intensifying. In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate. In the long term, the surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline [14] 3.5.8 Ferromanganese - Silicon - The tender price of HBIS is flat, and the supply pressure is difficult to relieve. The cost increase supports the bottom of the futures price, but the market supply - demand is loose, and the price increase driving force is insufficient. The downstream demand is expected to decline, and the new production capacity is about to be put into use, so the inventory pressure is difficult to relieve. It is expected that the futures price will operate at a low level around the cost [16] 3.5.9 Ferrosilicon - The pricing of HBIS has slightly increased, but the price is under pressure due to loose supply - demand. The cost support has strengthened, but the supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price increase driving force is limited. The production reduction is limited, and the market destocking is difficult. The downstream demand is expected to decline. It is expected that the futures price will operate at a low level around the cost [16][17] 3.6 Index Information - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index is 2269.39, up 0.47%; the commodity 20 index is 2577.33, up 0.54%; the industrial product index is 2223.17, down 0.01%; the PPI commodity index is 1352.02, up 0.54% [100] - **Plate Index**: The steel industry chain index on November 13, 2025, is 1983.80, with a daily decline of 0.04%, a decline of 0.30% in the past 5 days, an increase of 0.57% in the past month, and a decline of 5.90% since the beginning of the year [101]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - During the policy "vacuum period" and with stable industrial operations, the prices of black building materials oscillated. The iron ore, which had a relatively large decline earlier, rebounded significantly. At night, the sector continued to oscillate, and the coking coal and coke futures prices weakened due to the fourth round of coke price increase negotiations [2][3]. - Currently, the contradictions in the industrial chain are not prominent, and there are no new changes in the macro and policy aspects to affect market expectations. Therefore, the black building materials prices lack a clear trend and are expected to remain volatile in the short term. If there are more favorable policies in the future, there may be a phased upward opportunity [3][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Port trading volume was 98.8 (-9) million tons. The spot price was strong. Overseas mine shipments were relatively stable but decreased month - on - month. The arrival of goods decreased week - on - week. The daily average molten iron was stable in the short term, but there was an increasing expectation of seasonal decline. The port inventory continued to accumulate, but the marginal supply - demand might improve. It is expected that after a rapid price decline, it will oscillate strongly in the short term [9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The average price of crushed scrap in East China decreased by 4 yuan/ton. The supply of scrap steel decreased, and the demand was weak. The overall supply - demand of scrap steel was weak, and it is expected that the spot price will oscillate with the finished products in the short term [10]. Carbon Element - **Coke**: The futures market oscillated at a low level. The spot price in Rizhao Port increased by 10 yuan/ton. The supply was difficult to increase, and the demand was stable in the short term. After three rounds of price increases, the steel mills were resistant to further increases, but the fourth - round price increase was likely to be implemented. The coke price is expected to oscillate with the coking coal [10][12]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply was still tight, and the Mongolian coal import increase was limited. The spot price was strongly supported, but the futures price was suppressed by the finished products. It is expected that the coking coal price will oscillate [13]. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The short - term cost supported the price, but the supply - demand was loose, and there was insufficient driving force for price increase. It is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The short - term cost was strong, but the supply - demand was loose, and the upward driving force was insufficient. It is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [3]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The national average price decreased by 3 yuan/ton. The supply might be disrupted, and the mid - and downstream inventories were moderately high. The current supply - demand was in surplus. If there was no more cold repair by the end of the year, the price would be under pressure; otherwise, it would rise [4][14]. - **Soda Ash**: The cost increased, and the bottom support was obvious. However, the supply - demand surplus suppressed the price increase. Recently, the weakening of the glass price dragged down the soda ash price. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the long term [4][15]. Steel - The spot market transactions were weak. The steel mills' profitability decreased, and the production decreased. The demand declined, and the overall inventory continued to decrease, but it was still higher than the same period last year. The fundamentals had contradictions. It is expected that during the off - season, the demand will weaken, and the price will have limited downward space. Pay attention to the potential upward driving force from the macro and policy [9]. Commodity Index - On November 12, 2025, the comprehensive index, the commodity 20 index, the industrial products index, and the PPI commodity index all increased. The steel industry chain index increased by 0.63% on that day, decreased by 1.21% in the past 5 days, increased by 1.24% in the past month, and decreased by 5.87% since the beginning of the year [98][99].

Group 1: Glass and Soda Ash Analysis - The glass futures market showed a volatile decline yesterday, while the spot price was stable with a slight increase, and downstream buyers purchased on - demand. The supply - demand contradiction in the glass market remains significant, with high inventory levels despite some destocking, and the medium - to - long - term demand is not optimistic due to the approaching end of the consumption peak season and the weak real - estate industry. The change of glass production lines should be continuously monitored [1]. - The soda ash futures market moved in a volatile manner yesterday, and downstream buyers showed strong wait - and - see sentiment, mainly purchasing at low prices for essential needs. The supply - demand contradiction in the soda ash market still exists. Although downstream essential demand is resilient, high inventory continuously suppresses prices, and the pressure of destocking persists throughout the year. The supply and cost changes of soda ash should be continuously monitored [1]. Group 2: Glass and Soda Ash Strategy - The glass market is expected to be volatile, and the soda ash market is expected to be volatile and weak. There are no strategies for inter - delivery and inter - commodity trading [2]. Group 3: Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron Analysis - The main contract of silicon manganese futures dropped in the afternoon following the coking coal sector yesterday. The mainstream steel procurement volume decreased slightly compared to the previous period. The price of 6517 silicon manganese in the northern market was 5570 - 5620 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton. Silicon manganese enterprises are continuously losing money, but production remains at a medium - to - high level, and enterprise inventory has reached a five - year high. However, the inventory of upstream manganese ore is continuously decreasing, and the total inventory of manganese elements remains stable. It is expected that the price of silicon manganese will continue to resonate with the black - series products and maintain a wide - range low - level volatile trend. The cost support of manganese ore and regional policies should be monitored [3]. - The main contract of silicon iron futures declined in a volatile manner yesterday. The silicon iron market showed little change, and the market mainly focused on order fulfillment. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron natural lumps in the main production areas was 5150 - 5250 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron was 5700 yuan/ton. Currently, silicon iron has high production and high inventory, and demand is marginally weakening. The market mainly purchases on - demand. Although enterprises are continuously losing money, production has not been effectively restricted, and high inventory pressure will continue to suppress prices. With the increase in the prices of semi - coke and electricity in some regions, the cost of silicon iron has risen. The changes in coal and electricity prices on the cost side and regional policies should be monitored [3]. Group 4: Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron Strategy - Both the silicon manganese and silicon iron markets are expected to be volatile and slightly strong [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [6] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday, affected by the news of winter coal supply guarantee, there were concerns about increased supply, causing the prices of coking coal and coke to decline rapidly. The expectation of loose coal supply and lower price center also negatively affected the prices of alloys and soda ash through the cost side. Other varieties in the sector were relatively stable. During the night session, the prices of steel and ore rebounded slightly, while other varieties remained volatile [1][2]. - In the current traditional off - season, the industry performance is average. Steel and iron ore, which had significant previous declines, have a chance of a phased rebound. Later, the price drive from the industrial side in the off - season is limited, and prices are expected to remain volatile. If there are still positive macro and policy releases later, phased upward opportunities can still be watched [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - The negative feedback transmission in the current industrial chain is not smooth. Steel mills' willingness to actively overhaul is weaker than in the same period of the past two years. Later, as arrivals further decline, the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve marginally, alleviating the overall inventory accumulation pressure of iron ore. After a rapid price decline, it is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term. The fundamentals of scrap steel show both weak supply and demand, and it is expected that the short - term spot price will fluctuate with finished products [2]. Carbon Element - After three rounds of price increases, steel mills are under great profit pressure and are resistant to further price increases. However, the cost support for coke is relatively strong, and steel mills still have procurement demand. The game between coke producers and steel mills will continue, and the coke price is expected to be volatile. Energy supply guarantee mainly involves thermal coal, and coal supply guarantee during the heating season is in line with expectations. Also, safety production work is emphasized, and the 2025 central safety production assessment and inspection has been launched. The supply of coking coal is still expected to be poor this year, and the spot coal price has strong support, but the futures price is still suppressed by finished products. The coking coal price is expected to be volatile [2]. Alloys - In the short term, the firm cost supports the price of silicomanganese, but the market supply - demand is loose, and there is insufficient driving force for price increase. The strong short - term cost trend supports the price of ferrosilicon, but the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, and the price upward driving force is insufficient. It is expected to run at a low level around the cost [3]. Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of supply disturbances for glass, but the inventories of middle - and downstream are moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, it will return to fundamental trading, and the price may be volatile and weak; otherwise, the price will rise. In the long - term, market - oriented production capacity reduction is still needed. If the market refocuses on fundamentals, the price is expected to continue to be volatile and downward. Recently, due to increased costs and factory cold - repair, the market trading sentiment has improved, and the spot price has slightly increased, but the supply - demand pattern remains unchanged. The price above the industry's high - cost line may face certain pressure again. In the long - term, the supply surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting production capacity reduction [3]. Specific Varieties - **Steel**: In the spot market, transactions are generally weak, and market sentiment has weakened. The profitability of steel mills has declined significantly, and seasonal overhauls have increased, leading to a significant drop in steel production. In the off - season, demand is under pressure to weaken, and the inventory level is still higher than the same period last year. The current futures valuation is low, and the downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to the macro and policy factors that may drive a low - level rebound [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The overseas mine shipment is relatively stable, and arrivals have decreased this week. The demand for iron ore is affected by sintering restrictions and overhauls, and the iron - making water output has declined. The port inventory has continued to accumulate, but the supply - demand may be repaired marginally later. After a rapid price decline, it is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [7]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply of scrap steel has decreased this week, and the demand shows different trends in short - and long - processes. The overall daily consumption has slightly decreased, and the steel mill inventory has increased. It is expected that the short - term spot price will fluctuate with finished products [8]. - **Coke**: The futures price of coke followed coking coal and was weak. The supply is difficult to increase due to high costs and environmental protection requirements. Although steel mills have overhaul expectations, the demand support still exists. The game between coke producers and steel mills will continue, and the price is expected to be volatile [8][10]. - **Coking Coal**: The futures price of coking coal was weak due to the news of energy supply guarantee. The supply is tight, and imports are also limited. The spot coal price has strong support, but the futures price is suppressed by finished products. It is expected to be volatile [12]. - **Glass**: The "anti - involution" expectation still has an impact, and the macro situation is neutral. The supply may be disturbed, but the middle - and downstream inventories are moderately high, and the supply - demand is in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the price may be volatile and weak; otherwise, it will rise. In the long - term, market - oriented production capacity reduction is needed [13]. - **Soda Ash**: The "anti - involution" expectation still has an impact, and the macro situation is neutral. The supply and demand fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the industry is still at the bottom of the cycle. Recently, the cost support has been strengthened, and the market sentiment has improved, but the long - term supply surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline [13]. - **Silicomanganese**: Yesterday, the sharp decline in the coking coal futures price weakened the cost support expectation for silicomanganese. The market supply - demand is loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level around the cost [15]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The decline in the coking coal futures price weakened the cost support for ferrosilicon. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is weak. It is expected to run at a low level around the cost [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [7]. Core Viewpoints - At the beginning of this week, the macro and policy fronts "paused", and the subsequent inventory pressure corresponding to the high arrival of iron ore made the iron ore price relatively under pressure. After entering November, the molten iron output will decline seasonally, weakening the demand support for the furnace charge end. However, seasonal production cuts rather than negative - feedback production cuts will put relatively limited downward pressure on the prices of industrial chain varieties. If the macro and policy levels release positive news later, it will still support the prices of sector varieties [1][2]. - The fundamentals of the industrial chain will gradually weaken marginally. Since the decline in molten iron is mainly due to the seasonal production cuts of steel enterprises, the negative feedback on sector varieties is limited. It is recommended to seize the opportunity of macro and policy introduction and pay attention to phased upward opportunities [7]. Summary by Directory Iron Element - The arrival rhythm of iron ore is significantly disturbed, and the port inventory is rapidly accumulating. The fundamentals of iron ore are not optimistic, but the decline of ore price is limited. The scrap steel fundamentals have no prominent contradictions, and it is expected that the scrap steel price will fluctuate following the finished products in the short term [2]. Carbon Element - The cost support for coke continues to strengthen, and the third round of price increase is expected to be implemented. However, under the pressure on both coking and steel mill profits, the price is expected to oscillate. The supply of coking coal is difficult to improve, and the short - term fundamentals are healthy, with the price expected to oscillate [2]. Alloy - The high steel output and stable cost support the prices of ferromanganese - silicon and ferrosilicon in the short term, but the supply of ferromanganese - silicon is expected to remain high, with inventory pressure and limited upward driving force. The supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is relatively loose, suppressing the upward price space [3]. Glass and Soda Ash - Some production lines in the Shahe area stopped production, and the supply side faces short - term downward risks. If the production and sales remain weak, the price will return to weak oscillation. In the long term, market - oriented production capacity reduction is needed, and the price may continue to decline oscillating. The over - supply pattern of soda ash remains unchanged, and it is expected to fluctuate widely following the macro situation, with the long - term price center of gravity moving down [3]. Specific Product Analysis Steel - The spot market trading is weak, and the speculative sentiment is poor. The molten iron output declines, the five major steel products output increases, the demand continues to recover, and the inventory continues to decline. However, the inventory level is still higher than the same period last year. The short - term market is expected to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to the macro - policy and supply disturbances [9]. Iron Ore - The spot price has weakened significantly. Overseas mine shipments decreased, and arrivals increased significantly. The demand for molten iron decreased, and the port inventory accumulated rapidly. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [9][10]. Scrap Steel - The supply is slightly tight, the overall daily consumption decreases, and the inventory is de - stocked. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate following the finished products [11]. Coke - The cost support is strengthening, and the third - round price increase is expected to be implemented. However, both coking and steel mill profits are under pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate [12][13]. Coking Coal - The supply is difficult to improve, and the downstream and middle - stream procurement is continuous. The coal mine inventory has reached a low level in recent years, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [14]. Glass - The short - term supply may decline, but the demand is weak, and the middle - and downstream inventories are moderately high. The short - term price may return to weak oscillation, and in the long term, it is expected to decline oscillating [15]. Soda Ash - The supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious changes, and the industry is at the bottom of the cycle. The cost support is strengthened, and the price bottom support is strong. It is expected to fluctuate widely following the macro situation, with the long - term price center of gravity moving down [16][17]. Ferromanganese - Silicon - The short - term cost is stable, and the high steel output supports the price. However, the supply is expected to remain high, the inventory pressure is difficult to relieve, and the upward driving force for the price is insufficient [18]. Ferrosilicon - The high steel output and increased cost support the price, but the supply - demand relationship is loose, suppressing the upward price space [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [6] Core Viewpoints - The Fed's interest rate cut and the easing of Sino - US trade frictions continue to boost market sentiment, but the differentiation of fundamentals leads to different price performances of sector varieties. The supply - demand of coal and coke remains balanced with high - level price oscillation, while high inventories of steel and continuous inventory accumulation of iron ore lead to price declines [1][2]. - The marginal weakening of the supply - demand pattern is the main feature of the later fundamental situation, which still poses upward resistance to the prices of some sector varieties. At the same time, there is still a possibility of positive news from the macro and policy levels. It is recommended to seize the upward opportunities under favorable macro and policy conditions [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Iron ore: The weekly molten iron output has decreased as expected. The weakening of steel mill profitability and the start of the off - season will limit the recovery space of molten iron after the end of environmental protection restrictions. Iron ore arrivals are expected to recover, and inventory is expected to increase marginally. The fundamentals are marginally weakening, but overall contradictions are not prominent. Macro expectations and market sentiment dominate, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate [2]. - Scrap steel: The supply and demand of scrap steel both decline, and the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. Recently, the finished product data has slightly improved, and the downward driving force of scrap steel is limited. It is expected that the short - term scrap steel price will mainly follow the finished products [2][10]. Carbon Element - Coke: Under environmental protection restrictions, the demand for coke is temporarily tightened, but the overall supply - demand contradiction is not large. With the continuous increase in raw coal prices, coke has started three rounds of price increases. However, although the finished product prices have slightly recovered recently, steel mill profits are still under pressure, and the game between steel and coke continues. It is expected that the coke price will oscillate [2][12]. - Coking coal: The supply of coking coal is difficult to improve. With continuous procurement from the middle and lower reaches, the coal mine inventory has dropped to a recent low. The short - term fundamentals are healthy. It is expected that the short - term coking coal price will oscillate, waiting for further macro and policy boosts [2][13]. Alloys - Manganese silicon: The short - term cost is stable, and the high output of steel supports the price. However, the market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and the driving force for the price increase of manganese silicon is insufficient [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The high output of finished products and the firm cost support the ferrosilicon price in the short term. However, the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, and the upward price space is limited [3]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: Some manufacturers are trying to support the price by raising the spot price. Attention should be paid to whether the price increase is implemented and the sales situation after implementation. If the sales remain weak, the price will return to a weak oscillation. In the medium and long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and the price may continue to oscillate downward [3][14]. - Soda ash: The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is expected that the price will follow the macro fluctuations and oscillate widely in the future. In the long term, the price center of gravity will still move down to promote capacity reduction [3][16]. Specific Varieties - Steel: The macro sentiment is volatile, and the futures price is under pressure to decline. The spot market trading is generally weak, and the market sentiment has deteriorated. The fundamentals are improving, but the inventory level is still higher than the same period last year. It is expected that the short - term futures price will be under pressure, and attention should be paid to macro policy disturbances [8]. - Iron ore: The molten iron output has decreased significantly, and the inventory has increased month - on - month. The spot price has weakened. The fundamentals are marginally weakening, but overall contradictions are not large. Macro expectations and market sentiment dominate, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate [8][9]. - Scrap steel: The arrival volume has decreased slightly, and the price is oscillating. The supply and demand of scrap steel both decline, and the fundamentals have no prominent contradictions. It is expected that the short - term price will follow the finished products [10]. - Coke: The supply has slightly increased, and the demand is temporarily tightened. The overall supply - demand contradiction is not large, and the price is expected to oscillate [11][12]. - Coking coal: The supply is difficult to increase, and coal mines continue to reduce inventory. The short - term fundamentals are healthy, and the price is expected to oscillate [13]. - Glass: Manufacturers are trying to support the price by raising the spot price. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the price increase and the sales situation. If the sales are weak, the price will return to a weak oscillation. In the long term, the price is expected to oscillate downward [14]. - Soda ash: After the supply recovery, manufacturers have returned to the inventory accumulation state. The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is expected that the price will follow the macro fluctuations and oscillate widely, and the long - term price center of gravity will move down [16]. - Manganese silicon: The driving force for price increase is insufficient, and the futures price is oscillating. The short - term cost is stable, and the high steel output supports the price, but the market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic [17]. - Ferrosilicon: The supply - demand relationship is still loose, and there is pressure above the futures price. The high output of finished products and the firm cost support the price in the short term, but the supply - demand relationship is relatively loose [18]. Related Indexes - On October 30, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities decreased by 0.57% to 2250.38, the commodity 20 index decreased by 0.52% to 2544.78, and the industrial products index decreased by 0.87% to 2246.75 [99]. - The steel industry chain index on October 30, 2025, had a daily decline of 0.68%, a 5 - day increase of 2.52%, a 1 - month decline of 0.05%, and a year - to - date decline of 2.96% [101].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the entire industry is "Swing" [8][9][10][11][14][16][17][18][19] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the industry has marginal weakening, the contradictions are limited. Recently, the macro has continuously released positive news, strengthening the lower support for the prices of sector varieties, which is consistent with the previous judgment of weakened industrial chain logic and strengthened macro - expectations. As long as the hot metal output does not decline more than expected, the macro level will continue to support the prices of sector varieties [8] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Industry Situation - The daily consumption of sintered powder ore by steel enterprises decreased, indicating a short - term downward expectation of hot metal. But the strengthening of the macro - atmosphere continued to push up the prices of sector varieties. The macro - positives included the release of the "Urban Business Quality Improvement Action Plan" and the upcoming meeting between Chinese and US leaders [2] 2. Different Element and Product Analyses Iron Element - For iron ore, the fundamentals have marginal weakening, but the overall contradictions are not prominent. The macro - expectation dominates in the short - term, and the price is expected to oscillate with support. For scrap steel, the fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and the price is expected to follow the finished products due to warming macro - sentiment and slightly improved finished product data [3] Carbon Element - For coke, environmental protection restrictions have limited impact, and the short - term fundamentals have few contradictions. With rising costs, coke has started a third round of price increases, but steel mills' profits are under pressure, so the price is expected to oscillate. For coking coal, supply is hard to improve, and the short - term fundamentals are healthy due to low upstream inventory. The third - round price increase boosts the market, and the price is expected to oscillate with an upward trend [3] Alloys - For manganese silicon, short - term cost stability and high steel output support the price, but the supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and the upward driving force is insufficient. For ferrosilicon, high finished product output and stable costs support the price, but the supply - demand relationship is loose, and the upward space is limited [3] Glass and Soda Ash - For glass, the recent strengthening of the futures price has driven a positive futures - spot feedback, but the replenishment space is limited, and the rebound space is expected to be limited. In the long - term, capacity reduction through marketization is needed, and the price may continue to oscillate downward. For soda ash, the oversupply pattern remains unchanged, and it is expected to fluctuate widely following the macro, with the long - term price center moving down to promote capacity reduction [3][8] 3. Individual Product Analyses Steel - Spot market transactions are average, but speculative sentiment has improved. Steel production shows a downward sign, while demand continues to recover, and inventory is decreasing. Short - term the futures price has a rebound drive, but the upward space is limited due to high inventory [9] Iron Ore - Port transactions increased, and the spot price was strong. Fundamentally, overseas mine shipments increased slightly, and the arrival volume has a rebound expectation. Demand - side iron water output declined marginally, and inventory is expected to accumulate slightly. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term with macro - expectations dominant [9][10] Scrap Steel - Supply has decreased slightly, and electric furnace profits have increased. The fundamentals have few contradictions, and the price is expected to follow the finished products [11] Coke - The futures price oscillated strongly. Supply is hard to increase due to cost and environmental factors. Demand may decline slightly, and inventory is low. The price is expected to oscillate with continued game between steel and coke enterprises [12] Coking Coal - The futures price oscillated strongly. Supply is hard to improve due to production disturbances in mines. Import resources are tight, and inventory is low. The price is expected to oscillate with an upward trend [13] Glass - The price oscillated. Supply may be affected by gas - related changes, but short - term output decline is limited. Demand is weakening, and the replenishment ability is limited. The price rebound space is limited, and it may oscillate downward in the long - term [14] Soda Ash - The price is expected to oscillate at a low level. Supply is stable, and demand is okay. The industry is at the bottom of the cycle, and the price has strong bottom support but lacks upward driving force in the short - term. In the long - term, the price center will move down [16] Manganese Silicon - The futures price oscillated strongly following the upward trend of the black sector. Cost increases are limited, and demand support is weakening due to expected steel production decline. Supply is at a high level, and the price increase driving force is insufficient [17] Ferrosilicon - The futures price rebounded after a decline. Cost has increased, and supply pressure is accumulating. Demand may decline due to expected steel production decline. The price has support but limited upward space [18] 4. Index Information Comprehensive Index - The commodity index was 2263.37, up 0.93%; the commodity 20 index was 2558.20, up 1.02%; the industrial product index was 2266.37, up 1.23% [98] Section Index - The steel industry chain index was 2059.83 on October 29, 2025, with a daily increase of 1.85%, a 5 - day increase of 2.55%, a 1 - month increase of 1.03%, and a year - to - date decrease of 2.30% [100]