Report Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector is rated as "Oscillating" [1] - Rubber series in the energy and chemical sector: natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, and synthetic rubber are rated as "Oscillating" for natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber, and "Oscillating and Bullish" for synthetic rubber [5] Core Views - For sugar, the external market saw ICE raw sugar rise due to geopolitical conflicts boosting oil prices and affecting Brazil's new - season sugar - making ratio. The domestic market had a significant decline in Zhengzhou sugar due to the weak performance of the agricultural product sector and weak domestic reality, but recovered some losses at night. The short - term market is in a long - short game between weak reality and strong expectations, and the market is expected to oscillate [1] - For rubber series, natural rubber followed the overall decline of commodities and is under pressure from the start of tapping in Yunnan and Laos. The downstream tire factory's operation is stable, and the short - term fundamentals are neutral to weak. Synthetic rubber's BR fell slightly and then rose due to geopolitical news. The supply of butadiene supports its price, but downstream acceptance is limited. The short - term trend may be volatile due to the unpredictability of the war situation [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar Market Information - SR605 contract closed at 5343 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 1.17%, and 5398 yuan/ton at night; SR609 contract closed at 5470 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 1.21%, and 5427 yuan/ton at night [1] - ICE raw sugar's main contract was 14.82 cents/pound yesterday with a daily increase of 2.42% [1] - Guangxi's white sugar spot transaction price was 5377 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton; Guangxi sugar - making group's quotation range was 5390 - 5490 yuan/ton, down 20 - 30 yuan/ton; Yunnan sugar - making group's quotation was 5270 - 5320 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the mainstream quotation range of processing sugar mills was 5670 - 5880 yuan/ton, mostly down 20 - 30 yuan/ton [1] - As of March 15, 2026, India's 2025/26 sugar - making season sugar production reached 26.214 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 10.5% [1] - In January - February 2026, China's sugar imports were 280,000 tons and 240,000 tons respectively, a year - on - year increase of 217,000 tons and 223,900 tons respectively. From January to February 2026, China's cumulative sugar imports were 520,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 440,900 tons. As of the end of February in the 2025/26 sugar - making season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 2.2826 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 741,700 tons [1] - Thailand's sugar - making industry recently called for the promotion of E20 ethanol gasoline to strengthen energy security [1] - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's white sugar warehouse receipts were 16,342 yesterday, with a daily increase of 0 [1] Market Logic - External market: ICE raw sugar rose. Geopolitical conflicts in overseas areas strengthened oil prices, which affected Brazil's new - season sugar - making ratio and boosted sugar prices. As the main sugar - making countries in the Northern Hemisphere are approaching the end of the sugar - making season, the market's attention is turning to Brazil in the Southern Hemisphere. Short - term macro and event disturbances still exist, and the technical side shows a strong trend [1] - Domestic market: Zhengzhou sugar dropped significantly yesterday. The weak performance of the agricultural product sector and the weak domestic reality pressure caused the main contract to quickly break through the integer mark, and then stabilized near MA20. The significant increase in domestic sugar imports in January and February and the expected domestic production increase in this sugar - making season have been basically achieved. The current domestic supply - demand structure is relatively loose. The obvious signal of long - position funds leaving the market is the main reason for the sharp decline. However, at night, affected by the external market, Zhengzhou sugar recovered some losses. In the short term, Zhengzhou sugar is still in a long - short game between weak reality and strong expectations, and the market is expected to oscillate [1] Trading Strategy - Temporarily wait and see, and pay attention to the support near 5350 [1] Rubber Series Market Information - As of March 18, the closing price of the RU main contract was 16,400 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 2.38%; the closing price of the NR main contract was 13,105 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 2.71%; the closing price of the BR main contract was 15,260 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.74% [5] - Yesterday, the price of Thai raw material glue was 73.5 Thai baht/kg (0.5/1%), the price of cup rubber was 58.5 Thai baht/kg (0/0%), and the price of Yunnan rubber blocks was 13,500 yuan/ton (0/0%) [5] - As of March 15, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 677,600 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.42%. The bonded area inventory was 121,300 tons, an increase of 1.43%; the general trade inventory was 556,300 tons, a decrease of 0.81%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses increased by 1.71 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.71 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.37 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.22 percentage points [5] - Yesterday, the price of whole latex was 16,250 yuan/ton, - 400/-2.4%; the price of 20 - grade Thai standard was 1,980 US dollars/ton, - 35/-1.74%, equivalent to 13,644 yuan/ton in RMB; the price of 20 - grade Thai mixed rubber was 15,300 yuan/ton, - 300/-1.92% [5] - Yesterday, the price difference between the RU and NR main contracts was 3,250 yuan/ton, a contraction of 80 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price difference between the mixed standard rubber and the RU main contract was - 1,100 yuan/ton, a contraction of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [5] - Yesterday, the delivery price in the central Shandong region was 14,700 - 14,900 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was about 15,000 - 15,100 yuan/ton [5] - Yesterday, the market prices of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber fell. The price of Daqing BR9000 in the Shandong market dropped 200 yuan/ton to 15,300 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene 1502 in the Shandong market dropped 100 yuan/ton to 15,700 yuan/ton [5] Market Logic - Natural rubber: Natural rubber followed the overall decline of commodities yesterday and oscillated at night. The start of tapping in Yunnan and Laos put pressure on rubber prices. The operation of downstream tire factories was stable, and the impact of geopolitics was relatively limited. In the short term, the fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral to weak, and the technical side slightly broke through the lower edge of the channel. Recently, pay attention to whether the trend of synthetic rubber can boost natural rubber again [5] - Synthetic rubber: BR fell slightly yesterday and then rose again at night due to geopolitical news. The reduction in butadiene supply supported its price, but the actual acceptance of downstream enterprises was limited, and there were frequent news of enterprise production cuts, and poor transactions restricted the butadiene price. Affected by high raw material prices, the production loss of butadiene rubber continued, and there were more unplanned shutdowns. In the short term, due to the overseas situation, merchants still have a mentality of hoarding and bullishness. However, the unpredictability of the war situation may make its trend more volatile, and high - level wide - range oscillations may still be the norm in the near future [5] Trading Strategy - For RU and NR, pay attention to the support near M60; hold BR long positions in the short term [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar: Oscillating weakly [1] - Red dates: Oscillating bearishly [3] - Rubber series: Natural rubber oscillating, 20 - grade rubber oscillating, synthetic rubber oscillating [4] Core Views - The global sugar supply - demand balance sheet has a loose expectation, pressuring sugar prices. The sugar production progress in China, India, and Thailand is advancing steadily, and the high - yield expectation is being fulfilled. The short - term overseas sugar market atmosphere is weak. The domestic sugar market lacks fundamental guidance, and the short - term upward momentum of Zhengzhou sugar is insufficient [1]. - The red date futures price rebounded due to the exit of short - positions. The supply pressure is the main factor suppressing the red date futures and spot prices, and the mid - to long - term view remains bearish [3]. - For natural rubber, overseas raw material prices provide bottom support, but the seasonal inventory accumulation may suppress the market in the short term. For synthetic rubber, the market is supported by some news, but the trading atmosphere is dull. The rubber series is expected to be mainly consolidating [4]. Summary by Variety Sugar - **行情复盘**：SR605合约昨日收盘价5266元/吨，日跌幅0.23%，夜盘收5253元/吨；SR609合约收盘价5275元/吨，日跌幅0.25%，夜盘收5260元/吨 [1]。 - **重要资讯**：广西白糖现货成交价为5301元/吨，下跌10元/吨；2025/26榨季截至1月上半月，巴西中南部地区累计入榨量同比降幅达2.22%，累计产糖量同比增幅达0.86%；截至2月4日当周，巴西港口等待装运食糖的船只数量减少；2025/26榨季截至2026年2月3日，印度马邦产糖806.34万吨；昨日郑商所白糖仓单14461张，日环比+0张 [1]。 - **市场逻辑**：外盘ICE原糖跌破支撑，全球食糖供需宽松预期及中印泰丰产等因素施压，外盘空头仓位高且多头移仓加大近月下跌压力；内盘郑糖震荡走弱，春节临近现货购销停滞，缺乏基本面指引，外弱内强，上方整数压力有效，原糖跌破支撑形成拖累 [1]。 - **交易策略**：SR605空单持有，节前注意风控 [1]。 Red Dates - **行情复盘**：昨日CJ605合约收盘价8895元/吨，日涨幅2.60%；CJ609合约收盘价9100元/吨，日涨幅2.02% [3]。 - **重要资讯**：上周36家样本点物理库存在11888吨，较上周减少1255吨，环比减少9.55%，同比增加12.84%；昨日河北特级红枣批发价9.17元/公斤，日环比+0元/公斤；昨日广东如意坊市场到货车辆0车，日环比+0车；昨日红枣仓单3673张，日环比+127张 [3]。 - **市场逻辑**：昨日红枣期价因空单离场回升，当下基本面可供交易信息有限，节前备货基本结束，供应压力压制期现价格，合约中长线偏空 [3]。 - **交易策略**：CJ605逢高沽空；卖出虚值看涨期权 [3]。 Rubber Series - **行情复盘**：截至02月11日，RU2605合约收盘价为16575元/吨，日涨幅1.47%；NR2604合约收盘价为13445元/吨，日涨幅1.63%；BR2603合约收盘价为13020元/吨，日涨幅1.24% [4]。 - **重要资讯**：昨日泰国原料胶水价格61泰铢/公斤，杯胶价格54.5泰铢/公斤；截至2026年2月8日，青岛地区天胶保税和一般贸易合计库存量环比上期增加1.51万吨，增幅2.55%；昨日全乳胶、20号泰标、20号泰混等价格有变动；昨日RU与NR主力价差环比走扩25元/吨，混合标胶与RU主力价差环比走扩120元/吨；昨日丁二烯不同地区价格有区间，顺丁橡胶、丁苯橡胶市场价格上涨 [4]。 - **市场逻辑**：天然橡胶海外原料减产季价格上涨形成底部支撑，但临近假期市场交投淡、季节性累库或压制行情，短期偏强整理，关注节后需求复苏；合成橡胶节前丁二烯货源无明显补充，部分消息支撑行情，但市场交投平淡，预计盘面整理 [4]。 - **交易策略**：橡胶系未入场者暂时观望，节前风控为主，轻仓过节 [4]。

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector (sugar) is "oscillating" [1] - The investment rating for the energy and chemical sector (rubber series) is "oscillating and slightly bullish" [5] Group 2: Core Views - For sugar, overseas fundamentals have limited changes, and the market focuses on the production in India and Thailand. The short - term disk drive is weak, and it may oscillate in a range. Domestically, pre - Spring Festival stocking is basically over, but the end - price rebound stimulates traders to replenish inventory. There is a lack of fundamental and external - market guidance, and the upper pressure on the disk is significant [1] - For natural rubber, as overseas production areas enter the seasonal reduction and suspension of production, the global natural rubber supply is in a seasonal contraction period. The stocking demand supports the firmness of overseas raw material prices, and the slowdown of short - term inventory accumulation boosts the market's bullish expectations. In the medium - to - long term, there is still an expectation of supply shortage, and the short - term disk may be in a slightly bullish consolidation [5] - For synthetic rubber, the domestic butadiene supply is still tight. After a sharp rise, the downstream profit is under pressure, leading to a recent price correction of butadiene and BR. Affected by the decline of market sentiment, BR may show a consolidation trend, but due to tight raw materials and strong crude oil, the BR futures price may still be resistant to decline [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar Market Review - SR605 contract closed at 5187 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.37% and closed at 5222 yuan/ton at night; SR609 contract closed at 5198 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.25% and closed at 5238 yuan/ton at night [1] Important Information - The spot price of white sugar in Guangxi was 5236 yuan/ton yesterday, down 3 yuan/ton; the quotation range of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5250 - 5320 yuan/ton, with some prices down 10 - 20 yuan/ton; the quotation of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5120 - 5180 yuan/ton, with some prices up 10 yuan/ton; the mainstream quotation range of processing sugar mills was 5560 - 5900 yuan/ton, with individual prices down 10 yuan/ton [1] - In the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the domestic sugar production is expected to be about 34.35 million tons (before deducting ethanol production), and the consumption is estimated to be about 28.5 million tons, an increase of 400,000 tons compared with the previous season, indicating a slight upward trend in sugar consumption [1] - Brazil exported 1.7376 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first four weeks of January, with a daily average export volume of 108,600 tons. In January 2025, Brazil's sugar export volume was 2.0622 million tons, with a daily average export volume of 93,700 tons [1] - The white sugar warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 13,715 yesterday, with a daily - on - daily increase of 0 [1] Market Logic - Overseas: ICE raw sugar fell slightly yesterday. Overseas fundamental news has limited changes, and the market focuses on the production in India and Thailand. The short - term disk drive is weak, and it may oscillate in a range [1] - Domestically: Zhengzhou sugar strengthened slightly yesterday, and the night - session increase expanded. Pre - Spring Festival stocking is basically over, but the end - price rebound stimulates traders to replenish inventory, and the market trading atmosphere has slightly improved. There is still a lack of fundamental and external - market guidance, and the upper pressure on the disk is significant [1] Trading Strategy - SR605 should focus on the activity range of 5100 - 5300. In the short term, this variety lacks obvious drive, and the operation should be based on the short - term idea of high - selling and low - buying [1] Rubber Series Market Review - As of January 28, the closing price of the RU2605 contract was 16,360 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.96%; the closing price of the NR2603 contract was 13,190 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.80%; the closing price of the BR2603 contract was 13,265 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.69% [5] Important Information - The price of Thai raw material glue was 58 Thai baht/kg (0.1/0.17%), and the price of cup rubber was 53 Thai baht/kg (- 0.2/- 0.38%) [5] - As of January 25, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,500 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.07%. The bonded area inventory was 94,500 tons, a decline of 5.03%; the general trade inventory was 490,000 tons, an increase of 0.95% [5] - The price of whole latex was 16,100 yuan/ton yesterday, up 150/0.94%; the price of 20 - grade Thai standard was 1945 US dollars/ton, up 5/0.26%, equivalent to 13,567 yuan/ton in RMB; the price of 20 - grade Thai mixed rubber was 15,200 yuan/ton, up 100/0.66% [5] - The spread between the RU and NR main contracts was 3170 yuan/ton yesterday, 50 yuan/ton wider than the previous day; the spread between the mixed standard rubber and the RU main contract was - 1160 yuan/ton, 55 yuan/ton wider than the previous day [5] - The delivery price of butadiene in the central Shandong region was about 10,400 - 10,650 yuan/ton yesterday, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was about 10,200 - 10,300 yuan/ton [5] - The market prices of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber rose steadily yesterday. The price of Daqing BR9000 in the Shandong market rose 100 to 12,900 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene 1502 in the Shandong market was stable at 13,200 yuan/ton [5] Market Logic - Natural rubber: It strengthened slightly yesterday. As overseas production areas in northern Thailand and Vietnam shift to reduced production and suspension, the global natural rubber supply enters a seasonal contraction period. The stocking demand supports the firmness of overseas raw material prices, and the slowdown of short - term inventory accumulation boosts the market's bullish expectations. The short - term disk may be in a slightly bullish consolidation [5] - Synthetic rubber: The domestic butadiene supply is still tight. After a sharp rise, the downstream profit is under pressure, leading to a recent price correction of butadiene and BR. Affected by the decline of market sentiment, BR may show a consolidation trend, but due to tight raw materials and strong crude oil, the BR futures price may still be resistant to decline [5] Trading Strategy - Hold long positions in natural rubber and observe the pressure performance near the previous high. Hold or partially take profits on BR [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For the sugar market, the outer - market ICE raw sugar failed to break through the 15 - cent per pound pressure. Overseas fundamentals have limited changes, and the market focuses on the production in India and Thailand. The short - term disk drive is weak and may fluctuate within a range. The domestic Zhengzhou sugar has narrow fluctuations. After the pre - Spring Festival stocking is basically over, the market trading atmosphere is light. Without unexpected events, the upward pressure on the disk is significant [1]. - For the rubber market, natural rubber has entered a seasonal reduction period, with overseas raw material prices supported by stocking demand. The downstream tire enterprise operating rate has no obvious change, and the Qingdao port continues the seasonal inventory accumulation trend. The short - term disk may be mainly in a strong consolidation. Synthetic rubber has a tight domestic butadiene supply. After a sharp rise, the downstream profit is under pressure, and the BR price has corrected. Affected by the decline in market sentiment, BR may show a consolidation trend [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar - **Market Performance**: On January 27, 2026, the closing price of SR605 contract was 5168 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.08%, and the night - session closed at 5165 yuan/ton; the closing price of SR609 contract was 5185 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.08%, and the night - session closed at 5180 yuan/ton [1]. - **Important Information**: The spot price of Guangxi white sugar decreased by 8 yuan/ton to 5239 yuan/ton; most of the Guangxi sugar - making group's quotes decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the Yunnan sugar - making group's quotes decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The mainstream quotes of processing sugar factories decreased by 10 yuan/ton in some cases. The estimated domestic sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season is about 34.35 million tons, and the consumption is about 28.5 million tons, an increase of 400,000 tons compared with the previous season. Brazil exported 1.7376 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first four weeks of January, with a daily average export volume of 108,600 tons. In January 2025, Brazil's sugar export volume was 2.0622 million tons, with a daily average export volume of 93,700 tons. In December of the 2025/26 crushing season, the ethanol blending ratio in Indian gasoline reached 20% for the first time. The number of white sugar warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange remained unchanged at 13,715 [1]. - **Market Logic**: Overseas, the outer - market ICE raw sugar is mainly in a range - bound state. Domestically, the pre - Spring Festival stocking is over, and the market lacks guidance from fundamentals and the outer - market, with significant upward pressure on the disk [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: For SR605, focus on the range of 5100 - 5300 yuan/ton, and use a short - term trading strategy of high - selling and low - buying [1]. Rubber - **Market Performance**: As of January 27, 2026, the closing price of RU2605 contract was 16,205 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.15%; the closing price of NR2603 contract was 13,085 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.00%; the closing price of BR2603 contract was 13,045 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.66% [4]. - **Important Information**: The price of Thai raw material glue is 57.9 Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup rubber is 53.2 Thai baht/kg. As of January 25, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade is 584,500 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period, with a decline of 0.07%. The bonded area inventory decreased by 5.03% to 94,500 tons, and the general trade inventory increased by 0.95% to 490,000 tons. The prices of some rubber products changed, and the price difference between RU and NR and the price difference between mixed standard rubber and RU also changed [4]. - **Market Logic**: Natural rubber is in a seasonal reduction period, with supply shortage expectations. The downstream tire enterprise operating rate is stable, and the Qingdao port continues to accumulate inventory. The short - term disk may be in a strong consolidation. Synthetic rubber has a tight butadiene supply, and the price has corrected after a sharp rise. Affected by market sentiment, BR may show a consolidation trend [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For natural rubber, take profit on long positions or hold and observe the pressure near the previous high. For BR, hold and observe or take partial profit [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the sugar industry, the external market of raw sugar may maintain a range - bound shock, and the domestic Zhengzhou sugar shows a weak trend. It is recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy, and long - term short positions of SR605 should continue to be held, focusing on the 5100 - 5230 activity range [1] - For the rubber industry, natural rubber has no obvious unilateral driving force in the short term, and attention should be paid to whether the BR trend can boost it. Synthetic rubber is expected to have a short - term strong consolidation, and it is recommended to focus on the support near the lower moving average in the short term and adopt a low - buying strategy in the medium and long term [5] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Sugar Market Review - On the previous day, the closing price of SR605 contract was 5144 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.75%, and the night - session closed at 5138 yuan/ton; the closing price of SR609 contract was 5161 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.75%, and the night - session closed at 5158 yuan/ton [1] Key Information - The spot transaction price of Guangxi white sugar was 5238 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton; the quotation range of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5270 - 5360 yuan/ton, with an overall reduction of 10 - 20 yuan/ton; the quotation of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5120 - 5160 yuan/ton, down 20 - 30 yuan/ton; the mainstream quotation range of processing sugar mills was 5700 - 5820 yuan/ton, with individual reductions of 20 - 30 yuan/ton [1] - In December 2025, the average yield of sugarcane in the central and southern regions of Brazil was 73.4 tons/hectare, a year - on - year increase of 26.6%. The cumulative yield per unit area in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season (from April to December) was 74.7 tons/hectare, a decrease of 4.6% compared with the same period of the previous season [1] - The cabinet of Punjab in India approved a direct subsidy of 685 rupees/ton (equivalent to 52.38 yuan/ton) for sugarcane farmers in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season [1] - As of January 17, 2026, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in Thailand was 29.2643 million tons, a decrease of 5.6156 million tons or 16.09% compared with the same period last year; the sugar content of sugarcane was 11.95%, an increase of 0.08% compared with the same period last year; the sugar production rate was 9.790%, a decrease of 0.024% compared with the same period last year; the sugar production was 2.8651 million tons, a decrease of 0.5581 million tons or 16.3% compared with the same period last year [1] - The number of white sugar warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 14,421, a day - on - day decrease of 18 [1] Market Logic - In the external market, raw sugar rebounded slightly. Affected by the expected supply pressure of Thailand and India, the external sugar price has repeatedly failed to stabilize above 15 cents/pound recently, and the short - term may maintain a range - bound shock [1] - In the domestic market, Zhengzhou sugar continued to be weak, and the decline slowed down in the night session. The domestic white sugar market is currently calm, and there is no unexpected news. Technically, the recent trend of Zhengzhou sugar is weak [1] Trading Strategy - Long - term short positions of SR605 should continue to be held, focusing on the 5100 - 5230 activity range [1] Rubber Market Review - As of January 21, the closing price of the RU2605 contract was 15,745 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.80%; the closing price of the NR2603 contract was 12,615 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.52%; the closing price of the BR2603 contract was 11,915 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.85% [5] Key Information - The price of raw material glue in Thailand was 57.2 Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup rubber was 52.1 Thai baht/kg; the price of Yunnan rubber blocks was 13,200 yuan/ton [5] - As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,700 tons or 2.94%. The bonded area inventory was 99,500 tons, an increase of 6.42%; the general trade inventory was 485,400 tons, an increase of 2.26% [5] - The price of full - latex was 15,500 yuan/ton; the price of 20 - grade Thai standard was 1,890 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 13,233 yuan/ton; the price of 20 - grade Thai mixed rubber was 14,800 yuan/ton [5] - The price difference between the RU and NR main contracts was 3,130 yuan/ton, a month - on - month expansion of 60 yuan/ton; the price difference between the mixed standard rubber and the RU main contract was - 945 yuan/ton, a month - on - month expansion of 75 yuan/ton [5] - The delivery price of butadiene in the central Shandong region was around 9,650 - 9,750 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was around 9,300 - 9,400 yuan/ton [5] - The market prices of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber increased. The price of Daqing BR9000 in the Shandong market increased by 100 to 11,650 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene 1502 in the Shandong market increased by 100 yuan/ton to 12,000 yuan/ton [5] Market Logic - Natural rubber: It rebounded slightly, and the market sentiment improved slightly. The raw material prices overseas stopped falling and rebounded, but considering the seasonal inventory accumulation trend and the lackluster demand, there is no obvious unilateral driving force. Attention should be paid to whether the BR trend can boost it [5] - Synthetic rubber: The domestic available spot supply of butadiene is limited, and there are continuous export transaction news. It still has strong cost support for cis - butadiene rubber. The short - term supply pressure of cis - butadiene rubber is difficult to ease, and the short - term bearish sentiment of traders has subsided. The short - term disk may be in a strong consolidation [5] Trading Strategy - The rubber series should pay attention to the support near the lower moving average in the short term, and the medium - and long - term strategy should be based on low - buying [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid the outbreak of systematic risks, the bearish sentiment quickly spread, causing the domestic rubber futures to decline under pressure last Friday. Against the backdrop of a significant increase in global financial market risk - aversion sentiment and weakening macro - factors, after the positive impact of the typhoon was digested, the rubber market returned to a situation dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Spot price slightly increased, and basis discount converged**: In the week of October 10, 2025, the spot reference price of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) oscillated around 14,550 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 250 yuan/ton compared to before the holiday. The basis between the spot and the Shanghai rubber 2601 contract showed a slightly converged discount, reaching a discount of 765 yuan/ton by the end of the week [8]. - **Systematic risks emerged, and rubber weakened**: Trump restarted the tariff war targeting China, and the US government shutdown led to a collective decline in the peripheral financial markets last Friday. Domestic rubber futures declined under pressure. The Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract dropped 2.05% to 15,045 yuan/ton, the standard rubber futures 2512 contract dropped 3.19% to 12,005 yuan/ton, and the synthetic rubber futures 2512 contract dropped 2.50% to 10,920 yuan/ton [13][14]. 3.2 2025 Third - Quarter Global Rubber Market Supply - Demand Improvement - **Southeast Asian rubber - producing countries' output slightly increased, and consumption slightly decreased**: From May to November, domestic and overseas rubber - producing areas enter the tapping season. In August 2025, ANRPC member countries' total rubber production was 1.0787 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 20,200 tons (1.84% decline). From January to August 2025, the total production was 6.8536 million tons, a slight increase of 65,000 tons (0.96% increase) compared to the same period last year. In August 2025, the total rubber consumption was 899,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17,100 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 44,200 tons (4.68% decline). From January to August 2025, the total consumption was 7.1751 million tons, a significant decrease of 267,600 tons (3.60% decline) compared to the same period last year. With normal tapping in Southeast Asian countries and a slight decline in global rubber demand, rubber prices may face pressure in the future [24]. - **China's rubber imports slightly increased in August 2025**: China's natural rubber import dependence is about 80%. In August 2025, China imported 664,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber, a year - on - year increase of 48,000 tons (7.8% increase). From January to August 2025, the total import was 5.373 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 859,000 tons (19.03% increase) [32]. - **Domestic tire production and sales were booming, and the industry's operating rate decreased week - on - week**: In August 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tire production was 102.954 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 9.1% and a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. Tire exports were strong, with semi - steel tire exports reaching 325,900 tons, a record high. From January to August 2025, China's tire exports were 650,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%. However, the operating rates of semi - steel and full - steel tire sample enterprises decreased week - on - week due to holiday maintenance [35][36]. - **China's automobile production and sales increased significantly year - on - year in August 2025**: In August 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.815 million and 2.857 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13% and 16.4%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative production and sales were 21.051 million and 21.128 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.7% and 12.6%. In August 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.391 million and 1.395 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 27.4% and 26.8%. The inventory warning index of automobile dealers was above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the industry's prosperity. The logistics industry was in a good state, and the heavy - truck market had a five - consecutive - month increase in sales [39]. - **SHFE warehouse receipts decreased significantly, and Qingdao Free Trade Zone inventory decreased slightly**: By the week of October 10, 2025, the Shanghai rubber futures inventory and registered warehouse receipts decreased significantly week - on - week. As of September 28, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 456,500 tons, a decrease of 4,700 tons (1.01% decline) compared to the previous period [53]. 3.3 Conclusion - With the global financial market risk - aversion sentiment rising, risk assets are under pressure, and macro - factors are weakening. After the positive impact of the typhoon is digested, the rubber market returns to a situation dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [56].