Report Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar: Oscillating weakly [1] - Red dates: Oscillating bearishly [3] - Rubber series: Natural rubber oscillating, 20 - grade rubber oscillating, synthetic rubber oscillating [4] Core Views - The global sugar supply - demand balance sheet has a loose expectation, pressuring sugar prices. The sugar production progress in China, India, and Thailand is advancing steadily, and the high - yield expectation is being fulfilled. The short - term overseas sugar market atmosphere is weak. The domestic sugar market lacks fundamental guidance, and the short - term upward momentum of Zhengzhou sugar is insufficient [1]. - The red date futures price rebounded due to the exit of short - positions. The supply pressure is the main factor suppressing the red date futures and spot prices, and the mid - to long - term view remains bearish [3]. - For natural rubber, overseas raw material prices provide bottom support, but the seasonal inventory accumulation may suppress the market in the short term. For synthetic rubber, the market is supported by some news, but the trading atmosphere is dull. The rubber series is expected to be mainly consolidating [4]. Summary by Variety Sugar - **行情复盘**：SR605合约昨日收盘价5266元/吨，日跌幅0.23%，夜盘收5253元/吨；SR609合约收盘价5275元/吨，日跌幅0.25%，夜盘收5260元/吨 [1]。 - **重要资讯**：广西白糖现货成交价为5301元/吨，下跌10元/吨；2025/26榨季截至1月上半月，巴西中南部地区累计入榨量同比降幅达2.22%，累计产糖量同比增幅达0.86%；截至2月4日当周，巴西港口等待装运食糖的船只数量减少；2025/26榨季截至2026年2月3日，印度马邦产糖806.34万吨；昨日郑商所白糖仓单14461张，日环比+0张 [1]。 - **市场逻辑**：外盘ICE原糖跌破支撑，全球食糖供需宽松预期及中印泰丰产等因素施压，外盘空头仓位高且多头移仓加大近月下跌压力；内盘郑糖震荡走弱，春节临近现货购销停滞，缺乏基本面指引，外弱内强，上方整数压力有效，原糖跌破支撑形成拖累 [1]。 - **交易策略**：SR605空单持有，节前注意风控 [1]。 Red Dates - **行情复盘**：昨日CJ605合约收盘价8895元/吨，日涨幅2.60%；CJ609合约收盘价9100元/吨，日涨幅2.02% [3]。 - **重要资讯**：上周36家样本点物理库存在11888吨，较上周减少1255吨，环比减少9.55%，同比增加12.84%；昨日河北特级红枣批发价9.17元/公斤，日环比+0元/公斤；昨日广东如意坊市场到货车辆0车，日环比+0车；昨日红枣仓单3673张，日环比+127张 [3]。 - **市场逻辑**：昨日红枣期价因空单离场回升，当下基本面可供交易信息有限，节前备货基本结束，供应压力压制期现价格，合约中长线偏空 [3]。 - **交易策略**：CJ605逢高沽空；卖出虚值看涨期权 [3]。 Rubber Series - **行情复盘**：截至02月11日，RU2605合约收盘价为16575元/吨，日涨幅1.47%；NR2604合约收盘价为13445元/吨，日涨幅1.63%；BR2603合约收盘价为13020元/吨，日涨幅1.24% [4]。 - **重要资讯**：昨日泰国原料胶水价格61泰铢/公斤，杯胶价格54.5泰铢/公斤；截至2026年2月8日，青岛地区天胶保税和一般贸易合计库存量环比上期增加1.51万吨，增幅2.55%；昨日全乳胶、20号泰标、20号泰混等价格有变动；昨日RU与NR主力价差环比走扩25元/吨，混合标胶与RU主力价差环比走扩120元/吨；昨日丁二烯不同地区价格有区间，顺丁橡胶、丁苯橡胶市场价格上涨 [4]。 - **市场逻辑**：天然橡胶海外原料减产季价格上涨形成底部支撑，但临近假期市场交投淡、季节性累库或压制行情，短期偏强整理，关注节后需求复苏；合成橡胶节前丁二烯货源无明显补充，部分消息支撑行情，但市场交投平淡，预计盘面整理 [4]。 - **交易策略**：橡胶系未入场者暂时观望，节前风控为主，轻仓过节 [4]。

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector (sugar) is "oscillating" [1] - The investment rating for the energy and chemical sector (rubber series) is "oscillating and slightly bullish" [5] Group 2: Core Views - For sugar, overseas fundamentals have limited changes, and the market focuses on the production in India and Thailand. The short - term disk drive is weak, and it may oscillate in a range. Domestically, pre - Spring Festival stocking is basically over, but the end - price rebound stimulates traders to replenish inventory. There is a lack of fundamental and external - market guidance, and the upper pressure on the disk is significant [1] - For natural rubber, as overseas production areas enter the seasonal reduction and suspension of production, the global natural rubber supply is in a seasonal contraction period. The stocking demand supports the firmness of overseas raw material prices, and the slowdown of short - term inventory accumulation boosts the market's bullish expectations. In the medium - to - long term, there is still an expectation of supply shortage, and the short - term disk may be in a slightly bullish consolidation [5] - For synthetic rubber, the domestic butadiene supply is still tight. After a sharp rise, the downstream profit is under pressure, leading to a recent price correction of butadiene and BR. Affected by the decline of market sentiment, BR may show a consolidation trend, but due to tight raw materials and strong crude oil, the BR futures price may still be resistant to decline [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar Market Review - SR605 contract closed at 5187 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.37% and closed at 5222 yuan/ton at night; SR609 contract closed at 5198 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.25% and closed at 5238 yuan/ton at night [1] Important Information - The spot price of white sugar in Guangxi was 5236 yuan/ton yesterday, down 3 yuan/ton; the quotation range of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5250 - 5320 yuan/ton, with some prices down 10 - 20 yuan/ton; the quotation of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5120 - 5180 yuan/ton, with some prices up 10 yuan/ton; the mainstream quotation range of processing sugar mills was 5560 - 5900 yuan/ton, with individual prices down 10 yuan/ton [1] - In the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the domestic sugar production is expected to be about 34.35 million tons (before deducting ethanol production), and the consumption is estimated to be about 28.5 million tons, an increase of 400,000 tons compared with the previous season, indicating a slight upward trend in sugar consumption [1] - Brazil exported 1.7376 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first four weeks of January, with a daily average export volume of 108,600 tons. In January 2025, Brazil's sugar export volume was 2.0622 million tons, with a daily average export volume of 93,700 tons [1] - The white sugar warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 13,715 yesterday, with a daily - on - daily increase of 0 [1] Market Logic - Overseas: ICE raw sugar fell slightly yesterday. Overseas fundamental news has limited changes, and the market focuses on the production in India and Thailand. The short - term disk drive is weak, and it may oscillate in a range [1] - Domestically: Zhengzhou sugar strengthened slightly yesterday, and the night - session increase expanded. Pre - Spring Festival stocking is basically over, but the end - price rebound stimulates traders to replenish inventory, and the market trading atmosphere has slightly improved. There is still a lack of fundamental and external - market guidance, and the upper pressure on the disk is significant [1] Trading Strategy - SR605 should focus on the activity range of 5100 - 5300. In the short term, this variety lacks obvious drive, and the operation should be based on the short - term idea of high - selling and low - buying [1] Rubber Series Market Review - As of January 28, the closing price of the RU2605 contract was 16,360 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.96%; the closing price of the NR2603 contract was 13,190 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.80%; the closing price of the BR2603 contract was 13,265 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.69% [5] Important Information - The price of Thai raw material glue was 58 Thai baht/kg (0.1/0.17%), and the price of cup rubber was 53 Thai baht/kg (- 0.2/- 0.38%) [5] - As of January 25, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,500 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.07%. The bonded area inventory was 94,500 tons, a decline of 5.03%; the general trade inventory was 490,000 tons, an increase of 0.95% [5] - The price of whole latex was 16,100 yuan/ton yesterday, up 150/0.94%; the price of 20 - grade Thai standard was 1945 US dollars/ton, up 5/0.26%, equivalent to 13,567 yuan/ton in RMB; the price of 20 - grade Thai mixed rubber was 15,200 yuan/ton, up 100/0.66% [5] - The spread between the RU and NR main contracts was 3170 yuan/ton yesterday, 50 yuan/ton wider than the previous day; the spread between the mixed standard rubber and the RU main contract was - 1160 yuan/ton, 55 yuan/ton wider than the previous day [5] - The delivery price of butadiene in the central Shandong region was about 10,400 - 10,650 yuan/ton yesterday, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was about 10,200 - 10,300 yuan/ton [5] - The market prices of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber rose steadily yesterday. The price of Daqing BR9000 in the Shandong market rose 100 to 12,900 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene 1502 in the Shandong market was stable at 13,200 yuan/ton [5] Market Logic - Natural rubber: It strengthened slightly yesterday. As overseas production areas in northern Thailand and Vietnam shift to reduced production and suspension, the global natural rubber supply enters a seasonal contraction period. The stocking demand supports the firmness of overseas raw material prices, and the slowdown of short - term inventory accumulation boosts the market's bullish expectations. The short - term disk may be in a slightly bullish consolidation [5] - Synthetic rubber: The domestic butadiene supply is still tight. After a sharp rise, the downstream profit is under pressure, leading to a recent price correction of butadiene and BR. Affected by the decline of market sentiment, BR may show a consolidation trend, but due to tight raw materials and strong crude oil, the BR futures price may still be resistant to decline [5] Trading Strategy - Hold long positions in natural rubber and observe the pressure performance near the previous high. Hold or partially take profits on BR [5]

早盘提示 Morning session notice ddddddddddddddddddddddddddd 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 28 日星期三 研究员：李方磊 从业资格：F03104461 交易咨询资格：Z0021311 联系方式：19339940612 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日 SR605 合约收盘价 5168 元/吨，日跌幅 0.08%，夜盘收 5165 元/吨；SR609 合约 收盘价 5185 元/吨，日跌幅 0.08%，夜盘收 5180 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 1.昨日今日广西白糖现货成交价为 5239 元/吨，下跌 8 元/吨；广西制糖集团报价区 | | | | | 间 5250~5320 元/吨，多数下调 10 元/吨；云南制糖集团报价 5120~5170 元/吨，下 调 10 元/吨；加工糖厂主流报价区间为 5560~5900 元/吨，部分下调 10 元/吨。 | | | | | 2 ...

Morning session notice | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 昨日 | SR605 | 合约收盘价 | 5144 | 元/吨，日跌幅 | 0.75%，夜盘收 | 5138 | 元/吨；SR609 | 合约 | | | | | | | 收盘价 | 5161 | 元/吨，日跌幅 | 0.75%，夜盘收 | 5158 | 元/吨。 | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | | | | | 1 | 昨日广西白糖现货成交价为 | 5238 | 元/吨，下跌 | 45 | 元/吨；广西制糖集团报价区间 | 为 | 5270~5360 | 元/吨，整体下调 | 10~20 | 元/吨；云南制糖集团报价 | 5120~ | 5160 | 元/吨， | | | 下调 | 20~30 | 元/吨；加工糖厂主流报价区间为 | 5700~5820 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid the outbreak of systematic risks, the bearish sentiment quickly spread, causing the domestic rubber futures to decline under pressure last Friday. Against the backdrop of a significant increase in global financial market risk - aversion sentiment and weakening macro - factors, after the positive impact of the typhoon was digested, the rubber market returned to a situation dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Spot price slightly increased, and basis discount converged**: In the week of October 10, 2025, the spot reference price of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) oscillated around 14,550 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 250 yuan/ton compared to before the holiday. The basis between the spot and the Shanghai rubber 2601 contract showed a slightly converged discount, reaching a discount of 765 yuan/ton by the end of the week [8]. - **Systematic risks emerged, and rubber weakened**: Trump restarted the tariff war targeting China, and the US government shutdown led to a collective decline in the peripheral financial markets last Friday. Domestic rubber futures declined under pressure. The Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract dropped 2.05% to 15,045 yuan/ton, the standard rubber futures 2512 contract dropped 3.19% to 12,005 yuan/ton, and the synthetic rubber futures 2512 contract dropped 2.50% to 10,920 yuan/ton [13][14]. 3.2 2025 Third - Quarter Global Rubber Market Supply - Demand Improvement - **Southeast Asian rubber - producing countries' output slightly increased, and consumption slightly decreased**: From May to November, domestic and overseas rubber - producing areas enter the tapping season. In August 2025, ANRPC member countries' total rubber production was 1.0787 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 20,200 tons (1.84% decline). From January to August 2025, the total production was 6.8536 million tons, a slight increase of 65,000 tons (0.96% increase) compared to the same period last year. In August 2025, the total rubber consumption was 899,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17,100 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 44,200 tons (4.68% decline). From January to August 2025, the total consumption was 7.1751 million tons, a significant decrease of 267,600 tons (3.60% decline) compared to the same period last year. With normal tapping in Southeast Asian countries and a slight decline in global rubber demand, rubber prices may face pressure in the future [24]. - **China's rubber imports slightly increased in August 2025**: China's natural rubber import dependence is about 80%. In August 2025, China imported 664,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber, a year - on - year increase of 48,000 tons (7.8% increase). From January to August 2025, the total import was 5.373 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 859,000 tons (19.03% increase) [32]. - **Domestic tire production and sales were booming, and the industry's operating rate decreased week - on - week**: In August 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tire production was 102.954 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 9.1% and a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. Tire exports were strong, with semi - steel tire exports reaching 325,900 tons, a record high. From January to August 2025, China's tire exports were 650,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%. However, the operating rates of semi - steel and full - steel tire sample enterprises decreased week - on - week due to holiday maintenance [35][36]. - **China's automobile production and sales increased significantly year - on - year in August 2025**: In August 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.815 million and 2.857 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13% and 16.4%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative production and sales were 21.051 million and 21.128 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.7% and 12.6%. In August 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.391 million and 1.395 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 27.4% and 26.8%. The inventory warning index of automobile dealers was above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the industry's prosperity. The logistics industry was in a good state, and the heavy - truck market had a five - consecutive - month increase in sales [39]. - **SHFE warehouse receipts decreased significantly, and Qingdao Free Trade Zone inventory decreased slightly**: By the week of October 10, 2025, the Shanghai rubber futures inventory and registered warehouse receipts decreased significantly week - on - week. As of September 28, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 456,500 tons, a decrease of 4,700 tons (1.01% decline) compared to the previous period [53]. 3.3 Conclusion - With the global financial market risk - aversion sentiment rising, risk assets are under pressure, and macro - factors are weakening. After the positive impact of the typhoon is digested, the rubber market returns to a situation dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [56].