金工策略周报 东证衍生品研究院金工首席分析师：李晓辉（商品CTA、商品指数） 从业资格号： F03120233 投资咨询号： Z0019676 东证衍生品研究院金工高级分析师：徐凡（国债期货、基本面量化） 从业资格号： F03107676 投资咨询号： Z0022032 （一）国债期货量化策略 东证衍生品研究院金工高级分析师：徐凡（国债期货、基本面量化） 从业资格号： F03107676 交易咨询号： Z0022032 量化模型基于历史数据构建，市场环境变化或导致模型信号失效。 Ø 上周各期债收涨，30年期主力合约涨1.24%，十年期主力合约涨0.14%，五年期主力 合约涨0.09%，两年期主力合约涨0.02% Ø 上周各品种基差走阔，十债CTD券为250018，23号基差收于0.05元左右，略低于基 差的季节性水平；三十年期CTD券为210005，16号基差收于0.35元，低于基差的季 节性水平。 Ø 国债期货持续走强，情绪小幅回暖推动各期债品种走强。随着开年来政策的不断加码， 经济运行情况整体平稳，短期上涨的动力较强，因此日间技术与基差等核心因子依旧 以多头主导。 ★国债期货行情简评： ★国债期货日频择时 ...

以下文章来源于领航配置 ，作者莱卡 领航配置 . 应对 > 预测，帮认可分散配置理念的私募投资者做好资产配置。 同样的年份，为什么有的 CTA产品 收益高涨，有的却表现疲软。 这种分化的背后，是CTA内部不 同的产品分类。 CTA其实是一个非常笼统的称呼，一箩筐什么都往里装，实际上它内部是包含了许多不同类别产 品。 我们可以从四个维度来定位一个具体的CTA产品到底是什么： 将四个维度串起来，就可以对CTA产品进行准确的定位，比如商品+趋势+量化+低杠杆CTA、多资 产+趋势+主观+中高杠杆CTA等。 维度一：资产类别 不同的交易标的，决定了策略不同的发展空间。 股指CTA面对的是相对有限的市场，股指期货只有沪深300、中证500、中证1000等少数品种。 它们之间虽有分化但整体依然高度相关，走势接近，导致股指CTA的策略空间进一步受限。 股指期货受政策影响也较大，2015年监管层对股指期货实施严格限仓，相关政策压制了股指CTA 的生存空间。 但股票市场的趋势性和系统性会更加明显，不容易像个别商品一样被刻意扭曲交易结构，策略的稳定 性会相对更好。 股指CTA在特定阶段的作用也不可忽视，比如2024年就是股指CT ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market has shown signs of recovery, positively impacting the convertible bond market, with new bonds achieving record performance. The average first-day increase for convertible bonds listed in 2025 reached 37%, marking the highest yield since 2018. The subscription rate has dropped to 0.0048%, indicating a significant increase in the difficulty of new bond issuance [1] - On December 25, the Shanghai Composite Index opened lower but closed higher, recording a seven-day winning streak. The index rose by 0.47% to 3959.62 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.33% and 0.3%, respectively. The total trading volume in both markets reached 19,245.23 billion yuan, an increase of 44.3 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Fund News - On December 25, five new funds were launched, primarily mixed and bond funds. The Ping An Tianxiang 6-month holding period bond A fund aimed to raise 3 billion yuan. A total of 77 funds distributed dividends, with the highest dividend payout being 6.5420 yuan per 10 fund shares from the Shanghai 5-year Treasury ETF [2][4] - The bond market in 2025 is expected to have thin yields and increased volatility, highlighting the value of "fixed income +". This strategy, which includes a small equity position to hedge against rising interest rates, has yielded returns of 4%-6%, outperforming pure bond indices by over 3 percentage points [2] Group 3: Performance of Multi-Asset Strategies - As of December 12, nearly 1500 multi-asset strategy products reported an average annual return of 19.55%, with over 90% achieving positive returns. Leading institutions have consistently surpassed 30% returns for two consecutive years, indicating strong performance in this strategy [3] - Looking ahead to 2026, top private equity firms anticipate a complex macro environment with continued high volatility in stock, bond, and commodity prices. They plan to enhance strategy diversification and dynamically adjust risk budgets to capture absolute returns through various assets, including convertible bonds and REITs [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index futures market rebounded significantly last week, with different industries contributing to the gains of various indices. The trading volume of each variety decreased month - on - month, and the basis weakened. It is recommended to pay attention to the inter - period positive arbitrage opportunities, and the roll - over strategy recommends going long on the near - term contract and short on the far - term contract. The cross - variety arbitrage time - series synthetic strategy's net value remained flat last week, and new signals were given. The daily timing strategy generally made profits last week, but the new signals of the timing model showed a significant increase in the degree of bearishness [3][4][5][6][7]. - In the bond futures market, the IRR of bond futures decreased this week, the basis strengthened, and the inter - period spread fluctuated weakly. Attention can be paid to the positive arbitrage space caused by the slight expansion of the inter - period spread. The daily timing strategy signals were mainly long last week, and the interest rate timing signals predicted an upward trend in interest rates [42][43][44]. - In the commodity market, last week, the commodity market generally had more gains than losses. The momentum and term - structure factors performed well, and the volume - price trend and some value - based factors had the largest increase. There may be a risk of factor return retracement in the short term, but the long - term performance of commodity factors is still optimistic. Different tracking strategies have different performance indicators [57][58]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures 3.1.1 Market Review - The market rebounded significantly last week. Electronics and non - ferrous metals contributed to the main gains of the SSE 50; electronics and communications contributed to the main gains of the CSI 300; electronics and power equipment contributed to the main gains of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 [3]. - The trading volume of each variety decreased month - on - month, and the basis weakened. IF maintained a shallow discount, while IC and IM maintained a deep discount [4]. 3.1.2 Basis Strategy Recommendation - The basis of each variety weakened. It is expected that the deep discount pattern of IC and IM will continue. It is recommended to pay attention to the inter - period positive arbitrage opportunities, and the roll - over strategy recommends going long on the near - term contract and short on the far - term contract [4]. 3.1.3 Arbitrage Strategy Tracking - In the inter - period arbitrage strategy, the net value of each strategy generally made profits last week. The annualized basis rate, positive arbitrage, and momentum factor made profits of 0.4%, 0.1%, and 0% (6 - times leverage) respectively. The annualized basis rate factor turned to a positive arbitrage signal [5]. - The cross - variety arbitrage time - series synthetic strategy's net value remained flat last week. The new cross - variety signals recommend a 50% position to go long on IF and short on IC, and a 100% position to go long on IM and short on IC [6]. 3.1.4 Timing Strategy Tracking - The daily timing strategy generally made profits last week. The SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 had losses of 1.0%, 0.4%, and profits of 1.0%, 0.6% respectively. The new signals of the timing model showed a significant increase in the degree of bearishness, and the model was bearish on the SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 500 [7]. 3.2 Bond Futures 3.2.1 Basis and Inter - period Spread - The IRR of bond futures decreased this week, the basis strengthened, and the inter - period spread fluctuated weakly. Attention can be paid to the positive arbitrage space caused by the slight expansion of the inter - period spread [42]. 3.2.2 Unilateral Strategy - The bond futures market fluctuated last week. The daily timing strategy signals were mainly long. The main bullish factors included the basis, intraday volume - price, and high - frequency capital flow, while the main bearish factors included daily technicals and member positions [43]. 3.2.3 Interest Rate Timing Signal - The interest rate timing signals predicted an upward trend in interest rates, with a relatively high proportion of long positions in the production factor and inventory factor [44]. 3.3 Commodity Market 3.3.1 Commodity Factor Performance - Last week, the commodity market generally had more gains than losses. Glass, polysilicon, methanol, and silver had significant increases, while coking coal had a significant decline. The momentum and term - structure factors performed well, and the volume - price trend and some value - based factors had an average increase of more than 0.5%. The warehouse - receipt factors also increased slightly, while other factors decreased slightly. There may be a risk of factor return retracement in the short term, but the long - term performance of commodity factors is still optimistic [57]. 3.3.2 Tracking Strategy Performance - Different tracking strategies have different performance indicators. For example, the CWFT strategy has an annualized return of 9.4%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.62, a Calmar ratio of 1.07, a maximum drawdown of - 8.81%, a recent one - week return of 0.11%, and a year - to - date return of 4.53% [58].