股 票 基 金 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 ——基于国泰股票 ETF 行业轮动投资策略研究 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 权 益 量 化 研 究 方思齐 A0230525090002 fangsq@swsresearch.com 联系人 方思齐 A0230525090002 fangsq@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 04 日 2025 年 12 月 ETF 行业轮动组合构 建 相关研究 - | 1. 国泰基金 | 管理规模大，布局完整 3 | | | ETF | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1.1 | 3 | 国内 ETF | | 市场发展概况 | | 1.2 | 4 | 国泰基金 | | ETF 布局完整 | | 2. 12 | 组合：家电 ETF、上证综指 ETF、现金流 ETF、 | 月 | ETF | | | 2000ETF | 等 5 | | | | | 2.1 ETF | 行业轮动策略构建简介 5 | | | | | | 2.2 组合历史表现 6 | | | | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Zhao Chi Co., Ltd. has seen a significant stock price increase of 5.88%, reaching 6.66 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 253 million CNY and a market capitalization of 30.149 billion CNY as of the report date [1] - Zhao Chi Co., Ltd. is based in Longgang District, Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, and was established on April 4, 2005, with its listing date on June 10, 2010. The company specializes in the research, manufacturing, sales, and service of home audio-visual and electronic products [1] - The company's main business revenue composition includes multimedia audio-visual products and operation services at 66.90% and the LED industry chain at 33.10% [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of major fund holdings, one fund under Guotai Fund has Zhao Chi Co., Ltd. as a significant investment. The Guotai CSI Home Appliance ETF (159996) held 4.5096 million shares in the third quarter, accounting for 1.8% of the fund's net value, ranking as the tenth largest holding [2] - The Guotai CSI Home Appliance ETF (159996) was established on February 27, 2020, with a current scale of 1.657 billion CNY. Year-to-date returns are at 14.37%, ranking 3318 out of 4216 in its category, while the one-year return is 13.05%, ranking 2749 out of 3917. Since inception, the return is 52.46% [2] - The fund manager of the Guotai CSI Home Appliance ETF is Miao Mengyu, who has been in the position for 4 years and 45 days, with a total asset scale of 7.268 billion CNY. The best fund return during the tenure is 57.51%, while the worst is -36.23% [2]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report focuses on the construction methods and performance of various ETF portfolios in November 2025, including macro-based, macro + momentum, core - satellite, and trinity style rotation portfolios [2] Group 2: ETF Portfolio Construction Methods Based on Macro Approach - Calculate macro - sensitivity of indices tracked by broad - based, industry - themed, and Smart Beta ETFs according to economic, liquidity, and credit variables, and select ETFs monthly. Also consider adding momentum indicators. Traditional cyclical industries are suitable for economic up - periods, TMT for weak - economic but liquid - abundant times, and consumption benefits from credit expansion. Three ETF portfolios are constructed and rebalanced monthly [5] Trinity Style Rotation - Build a mid - to long - term style rotation model centered on macro - liquidity, compared with the CSI 300 index. Combine three models (growth/value, market - cap, and quality) to get 8 style preference results, then screen target - style - exposed ETFs with controlled industry exposure and set allocation limits [6] Group 3: Macro Industry Portfolio - Select industry - themed ETFs with over 1 - year establishment and over 200 million current scale. Calculate sensitivity scores, adjust according to economic, liquidity, and credit indicators, and select the top 6 industry - themed indices. Currently, with economic indicators rising and liquidity/credit tightening, the portfolio turns to value with high bank and cyclical proportions. November holdings are mainly bank and energy - related ETFs, each with a 16.67% weight. The portfolio has large fluctuations and was close to the CSI 300 in October [7][9][11] Group 4: Macro + Momentum Industry Portfolio - Combine macro and momentum methods to address the left - side bias of macro - based strategies. Use clustering to select one product with the highest 6 - month gain from each of 6 industry - themed groups. The portfolio includes many pro - cyclical industries. November holdings have multiple ETFs, with weights like 16.67% for some and 8.33% for others. The portfolio performed well this year and was close to the CSI 300 in October [12][14][15] Group 5: Core - Satellite Portfolio - Designed to address the high volatility and fast industry rotation of industry - themed ETFs. Use the CSI 300 as the core. Construct three sub - portfolios (broad - based, industry, and Smart Beta) and combine them at 50%, 30%, and 20% respectively. November holdings are mainly mid - to large - cap biased. The portfolio performed steadily this year, outperforming the index almost every month, including in October [16][17][21] Group 6: Trinity Style Rotation ETF Portfolio - The model favors small - cap growth + high - quality segments this period. The portfolio's factor exposure and historical performance are provided. November holdings include ETFs such as Southern CSI 500 ETF and Southern CSI 1000 ETF. The portfolio had significant fluctuations in monthly returns and outperformed the index in most months this year, including in October [22][23][26]

Core Insights - Fenda Technology (002681.SZ) released its Q3 2025 report on October 31, 2025, indicating a total of 1.22 billion shares held by institutional investors, accounting for 6.79% of the company's total equity [1] Institutional Holdings - A total of six institutional investors disclosed their holdings in Fenda Technology, with a combined shareholding of 1.22 billion shares [1] - The institutional investors include Shenzhen High-tech Investment Group Co., Ltd., Shenzhen Guarantee Group Co., Ltd., Zhuhai Gree Financial Investment Management Co., Ltd., and others [1] - The institutional holding percentage decreased by 2.00 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [1] Public Fund Holdings - In this period, 63 public funds were reported, including Southern CSI 1000 ETF, Huaxia CSI 1000 ETF, and others [1] - No new public funds were disclosed compared to the previous quarter [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that institutional investors hold a significant portion of Kangsheng Co., Ltd.'s shares, with a total of 328 million shares, representing 28.83% of the company's total equity as of October 28, 2025 [1] - The proportion of institutional holdings increased by 0.20 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [1] - A total of 12 public funds were disclosed this period, including major ETFs related to home appliances [1] Group 2 - Two foreign funds, BARCLAYS BANK PLC and MORGAN STANLEY & CO. INTERNATIONAL PLC., reduced their holdings compared to the previous quarter [2] - Two new foreign institutions, UBS AG and Goldman Sachs LLC, disclosed their holdings this period [2]

Group 1 - Hisense Visual Technology Co., Ltd. experienced a stock price increase of 5.05%, reaching 21.83 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 395 million CNY and a turnover rate of 1.42%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 28.488 billion CNY [1] - The company, established on April 17, 1997, and listed on April 22, 1997, is located in Qingdao, Shandong Province, and primarily engages in the manufacturing, sales, and service of televisions, broadcasting equipment, refrigerators, communication products, and various electronic products [1] - The revenue composition of Hisense includes smart display terminals at 79.68%, new display businesses at 11.57%, and other segments at 7.88% [1] Group 2 - Guotai Fund has one fund heavily invested in Hisense Visual, specifically the Guotai CSI All-Share Home Appliance ETF (159996), which reduced its holdings by 541,200 shares in Q2, now holding 1.3114 million shares, accounting for 2.48% of the fund's net value [2] - The Guotai CSI All-Share Home Appliance ETF (159996) was established on February 27, 2020, with a current size of 1.22 billion CNY, yielding 14.4% year-to-date and ranking 3272 out of 4222 in its category [2] - The fund has achieved a return of 45.56% over the past year, ranking 2369 out of 3804, and a total return of 52.5% since its inception [2]