行 业 研 究 商贸零售 2025 年 07 月 25 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 数据来源：聚源 -19% 0% 19% 38% 58% 77% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 商贸零售 沪深300 相关研究报告 《豫园积极推进老字号焕新，IP 联动 释放商圈活力—行业周报》-2025.7.20 《6 月社零同比+4.8%，618 线上渠道 表现强劲—行业点评报告》-2025.7.16 《闪购业务订单数创新高，即时零售 行 业 竞 争 持 续 升 级 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.7.13 医美化妆品 6 月月报：锦波生物发布 HiveCOL 蜂巢 胶原新品，2025H1 美妆温和复苏、洗护彩妆亮眼 ——行业点评报告 | 黄泽鹏（分析师） | 陈思（联系人） | | --- | --- | | huangzepeng@kysec.cn | chensi@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790519110001 | 证书编号：S0790124070031 | 板块行情回顾 医美（选取 14 家上市公司）：6 月个股涨幅靠前为美丽田园医疗健康（+64.4%）、 雍禾医疗（+50.0 ...

Core Insights - Codex Group announced that CU-40102 (topical finasteride spray) has received approval from the National Medical Products Administration for the treatment of androgenetic alopecia, marking it as the first and only approved topical finasteride for this condition globally and in China [1] Company Summary - CU-40102 is based on results from a Phase III confirmatory clinical trial, demonstrating its effectiveness in treating androgenetic alopecia, with good local tolerability reported by participants [1] - This approval will enhance Codex Group's commercialization strategy in the dermatology treatment and care sector [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the skin disease drug industry Core Insights - The skin disease drug industry focuses on treating various skin conditions, with a strong market demand driven by increasing patient needs and innovative treatment methods [5][6] - The market size for skin disease drugs is projected to grow from 2.076 billion RMB in 2019 to 2.575 billion RMB in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.54%. It is expected to reach 3.551 billion RMB by 2028, with a CAGR of 6.32% [9][10] - The industry has evolved from the use of natural substances to synthetic drugs and innovative biopharmaceuticals, with significant advancements in drug formulations and delivery systems [8] Market Background - The skin disease drug industry is characterized by high regulatory barriers and significant policy impacts, but the growing patient demand is driving market expansion [5] - The prevalence of skin diseases in China is high, with estimates indicating that 40%-70% of the population is affected, leading to a strong treatment willingness and a growing market for topical medications [13] Market Status - The market supply is constrained by the complexity of developing topical formulations, with only five new topical drugs approved in the last five years compared to 80 oral formulations [11] - The demand for skin disease treatments is increasing due to rising incidence rates and the convenience of topical medications, which patients can self-administer [13] Market Competition - The competitive landscape features a tiered structure, with leading companies like Huabang Pharmaceutical and ZhiYuan Pharmaceutical dominating the market [18][19] - The online sales channel for skin disease drugs has grown significantly, with its share increasing from 9.0% in 2019 to 22.9% in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of 24.3% [18] Development Trends - Technological innovations, particularly in biopharmaceuticals and AI-driven drug development, are expected to be key growth drivers in the industry [32] - Local companies are likely to strengthen their market positions through channel advantages and innovation, while foreign companies may deepen their local presence through partnerships [33] - Policy changes and capital investments are anticipated to accelerate industry upgrades, enhancing the accessibility of innovative drugs [34]

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment of the Hong Kong Stock Connect list has led to a significant impact on the stock price of Kedi-B (02487), which experienced a notable decline followed by a recovery, supported by strong financial performance and market sentiment towards its new product developments [1][3][6]. Stock Performance - Kedi-B's stock price fell by 20.60% over six trading days after being removed from the Hong Kong Stock Connect [1]. - Following a brief recovery, the stock saw a dramatic drop of 26.88% on April 7 due to market volatility, creating a potential buying opportunity [1]. - The stock hit a low of 3.64 HKD on April 9 but rebounded significantly, reaching a peak of 7.62 HKD by May 20, surpassing pre-removal levels [1][3]. Financial Performance - Kedi-B reported total revenue of approximately 280 million RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of about 103% [6][7]. - Gross profit for the same period was around 144 million RMB, reflecting a 102% increase year-on-year, while net loss narrowed by 77.91% to approximately 434 million RMB [6][7]. - The company achieved a gross margin of 51.3%, up from 50.6% in the previous year, driven by improved product lines and cost management [8]. Product Line and Market Strategy - The revenue growth was primarily attributed to increased sales of hair care and skincare products, with hair care revenue exceeding 160 million RMB and skincare revenue surpassing 110 million RMB [8]. - Kedi-B plans to enter a second growth phase in 2025 with three significant prescription drugs, including treatments for acne and hair loss, which are expected to drive future revenue growth [9]. - The company is also involved in the development of a botulinum toxin product, CU-20101, which has received approval in South Korea, showcasing its technical capabilities [10][12]. Market Context - The domestic medical aesthetics market is under pressure, with many companies reporting declines in Q1 2025, yet Kedi-B's stock performance indicates positive market sentiment towards its product developments [11]. - The botulinum toxin market in China is projected to reach 11.4 billion RMB by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 23.9% from 2020 to 2025, indicating strong growth potential [12][14]. - Kedi-B's entry into the botulinum toxin market, particularly with innovative product forms, positions it well against established competitors [14].