Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights a positive outlook on the recovery of lithium battery material prices and anticipates accelerated development in the sodium battery industry [3] - The electric power equipment sector has shown strong performance, with a 42.8% increase over the past 12 months, outperforming the CSI 300 index [4] - The report emphasizes the ongoing high demand for energy storage, with significant project signings and a robust pipeline for future installations [7] Summary by Sections Wind Power - Domestic land wind turbine bidding reached 9.64GW as of December 20, 2025, with major companies initiating large-scale procurement [5] - The report expects continued growth in installed capacity for 2026, driven by high demand and favorable bidding conditions [5] Photovoltaics - The photovoltaic industry chain has seen widespread price increases, with N-type polysilicon prices rising by 1.2% and N-type TOPCon battery prices increasing by 13.3% [6] - The report suggests that supply-side reforms are enhancing industry sentiment, with a positive outlook for profitability in 2026 [6] Energy Storage - China Power Construction Corporation signed contracts for energy storage projects totaling 50 billion yuan, with a significant number of projects in the pipeline [7] - The report anticipates strong growth in overseas energy storage demand, particularly in Europe and emerging markets [7] Lithium Batteries - Several leading lithium iron phosphate manufacturers are undergoing simultaneous production halts for maintenance, coinciding with a price increase trend in the industry [7] - The report indicates that improved supply-demand dynamics may lead to a recovery in prices and profitability for lithium iron phosphate manufacturers [7] Sodium Batteries - The sodium battery industry is entering a phase of deep development, with advancements in technology and market penetration [7] - The report highlights the growing demand for sodium batteries in various applications, including energy storage and commercial vehicles [7] AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) - ByteDance plans to invest $23 billion in artificial intelligence, which is expected to drive demand for AIDC infrastructure [8] - The report notes that the shift towards energy-intensive operations by tech giants is likely to increase the demand for power equipment [8] Electric Grid - Alphabet's acquisition of an energy developer marks a trend of tech companies investing in power infrastructure [8] - The report suggests that the growing demand for data centers will continue to drive the need for electric power equipment [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon spot prices stabilized, while futures prices rose and then fell. The price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation, with the main range between 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton. If production drops significantly, it may reach 10000 yuan/ton; if polysilicon production cuts are large and industrial silicon production cuts fall short of expectations, the price may drop to 7500 yuan/ton. [1] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures prices continued to rise strongly, with a large premium over the spot average. The supply is excessive, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation. If production cuts are significant, the futures may remain strong; if not, the high premium may converge to the spot price. [2] Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand in some regions shows resilience. Tin prices are expected to remain strong within the year. [4] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market was affected by news, with the main contract rising. The fundamentals have not changed much, with both supply and demand being strong. The price may remain strong in the short - term, but there is a risk of a pullback. [5] Nickel - The nickel market was affected by Indonesian nickel ore news and macro factors. The fundamentals are relatively loose, and the price may repair slightly in the short - term, with the main reference range of 112000 - 116000 yuan/ton. [7] Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market was affected by low valuations and nickel price rebounds. It is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short - term, with the main operating range of 12200 - 12800 yuan/ton. [9] Zinc - The zinc market is affected by macro - level risk aversion. The supply is gradually changing from loose to tight, and the demand has a structural improvement. The short - term Shanghai zinc price may be stronger than the London zinc price. [13] Copper - The copper market is affected by macro factors and supply - side concerns. The price bottom has shifted up, and short - term price fluctuations may be intensified by macro events. [14] Aluminum - The alumina market has a pattern of high supply and high inventory, and the price is expected to remain in a bottom - level oscillation. The electrolytic aluminum market is expected to oscillate widely, with the main contract in the range of 21700 - 22400 yuan/ton. [17] Cast Aluminum Alloy - The cast aluminum alloy market is in a game between strong cost support and weak demand. It is expected to remain in a high - level narrow - range oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 20700 - 21400 yuan/ton. [18] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of East China oxygen - containing SI5530, SI4210, and Xinjiang 99 silicon remained unchanged on December 17 compared to December 16. The basis of various types decreased. [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of most contracts changed significantly, with some showing large decreases or increases. [1] - **Fundamental Data**: National industrial silicon production decreased by 11.17%, and the national operating rate decreased by 4.84%. The production and operating rates in Yunnan and Sichuan decreased significantly, while those in Xinjiang increased slightly. [1] - **Inventory Changes**: Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan factory inventories and social inventories increased slightly, while the change in warehouse receipt inventory was zero. [1] Polysilicon - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The average prices of N - type re - feedstock and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The N - type material basis decreased significantly. [2] - **Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads**: The main contract price rose, and the inter - month spreads of some contracts changed significantly. [2] - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly silicon wafer production increased by 1.67%, and monthly polysilicon production decreased by 14.48%. [2] - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon and silicon wafer inventories increased. [2] Tin - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze River 1 tin increased by 1.65%. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 12.00%. [4] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed significantly. [4] - **Fundamental Data**: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49%, and SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09%. [4] - **Inventory Changes**: SHEF inventory, social inventory, and LME inventory increased. [4] Lithium Carbonate - **Prices and Basis**: The prices of various types of lithium carbonate and related raw materials increased to varying degrees. [5] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed. [5] - **Fundamental Data**: In November, lithium carbonate production and demand increased, and the inventory decreased. [5] Nickel - **Prices and Basis**: The prices of various types of nickel increased slightly, and the premium of Jinchuan nickel continued to rise. [7] - **Cost of Electrolytic Nickel**: The cost of some methods of producing electrolytic nickel changed. [7] - **New Energy Material Prices**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased, while the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased slightly. [7] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed. [7] - **Supply, Demand and Inventory**: Chinese refined nickel production and imports decreased, while domestic inventories increased. [7] Stainless Steel - **Prices and Basis**: The spot price of stainless steel increased slightly, and the futures - spot price difference decreased. [9] - **Raw Material Prices**: The price of some raw materials remained stable, while the price of high - carbon ferrochrome increased slightly. [9] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed. [9] - **Fundamental Data**: Chinese 300 - series stainless steel production decreased slightly, and exports decreased significantly. [9] Zinc - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 0.69%, and the import loss increased. [13] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed. [13] - **Fundamental Data**: In November, refined zinc production decreased by 3.56%, and the operating rates of some downstream industries changed. [13] - **Inventory Changes**: Chinese zinc ingot social inventory decreased, while LME inventory increased. [13] Copper - **Prices and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 0.49%, and the premium decreased. [14] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed. [14] - **Fundamental Data**: In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05%, and the operating rates of some copper - related industries decreased. [14] - **Inventory Changes**: Domestic social inventory increased, while the bonded area inventory decreased. [14] Aluminum Alumina - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of alumina in various regions decreased slightly. [17] - **Fundamental Data**: In November, alumina production decreased by 4.44%, and the operating rate increased slightly. [17] - **Inventory Changes**: Alumina plant inventory, port inventory, and electrolytic aluminum plant alumina inventory increased. [17] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.55%. [17] - **Fundamental Data**: In November, domestic and overseas electrolytic aluminum production decreased. [17] - **Inventory Changes**: Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased slightly. [17] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of various types of cast aluminum alloy increased slightly. [18] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed. [18] - **Fundamental Data**: In November, the production of regenerated and primary aluminum alloy ingots increased, and the operating rates of related industries increased. [18] - **Inventory Changes**: The social inventory of regenerated aluminum alloy ingots decreased slightly. [18]

| を业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Hol [201] 1295号 2025年 | | | | 纪元菲 | 20013180 | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品科 | 12月11日 | 12月10日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧S15530工业硅 | 9200 | 9200 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 基差(通氧SI5530基准) | ate | ರಿನಲ್ಲಿ | -35 | -3.68% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | aeso | aeso | 0 | 0.00% | 元/肥 | | 基差(SI4210基准) | રેક | 600 | -35 | -5.83% | | | 新疆99硅 | 8750 | 8750 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 基差(新疆) | 1265 | 1300 | -35 | -2.69% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合约 | 12月11日 | 12月10日 | 消歧失 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 25 ...

Group 1: Industrial Silicon Market Analysis Price and Trading Information - On December 10, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a volatile trend. The main contract 2601 opened at 8305 yuan/ton and closed at 8250 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan/ton (-2.19%) from the previous settlement price. The position of the main contract 2601 was 171,757 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 7780 lots, an increase of 252 lots from the previous day [2]. Supply - Side Information - The spot price of industrial silicon declined slightly. The price of East China oxygen - passed 553 silicon was 9100 - 9300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9500 - 9800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passed 553 silicon was 8600 - 8900 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8600 - 8900 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable [2]. - The price of silicon coal remained stable for now, but it was expected to loosen in some regions due to the downward - trending prices of raw coal and coking coal. The average price of non - caking silicon coal in Xinjiang was about 825 yuan/ton, the price range of caking silicon coal was about 1300 - 1650 yuan/ton, the average price of silicon coal in Shaanxi was about 880 yuan/ton, in Inner Mongolia was about 1260 yuan/ton, the average price of silicon mixed coal in Gansu was about 930 yuan/ton, and the average price of granular coal was about 1050 yuan/ton [2]. Demand - Side Information - The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 13500 - 13700 yuan/ton, and the transaction price was also in this range, up 250 yuan/ton from the previous week. As the DMC market price stabilized, the purchasing sentiment of downstream customers became more rational. Due to the weak demand in the terminal market, it would take time for the price to be fully transmitted to the terminal [3]. Strategy - The spot price was affected by the futures market and showed a weak and volatile trend. The industrial silicon futures market declined significantly due to capital sentiment, and attention should be paid to the strength of the lower support. The industrial silicon market was mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there were policies to promote capacity exit, the market might rise as the current valuation was low. For single - side trading, short - term range operation was recommended, and long positions could be considered when the price dropped significantly [4]. Group 2: Polysilicon Market Analysis Price and Trading Information - On December 10, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures showed a wide - range volatile trend. It opened at 56000 yuan/ton and closed at 55915 yuan/ton, with a closing price increase of 1.62% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 54959 lots (68874 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 116207 lots [5]. Supply - Demand and Inventory Information - The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.60 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 29.10 (a 3.38% change from the previous period), the silicon wafer inventory was 21.30GW (a 9.23% change), the weekly polysilicon output was 25800.00 tons (a 7.50% change), and the silicon wafer output was 11.95GW (a - 0.58% change). The estimated polysilicon output in December was 113500 tons, mainly due to production cuts in Inner Mongolia, and there were no major production cut plans in January [5][6]. Component Price Information - The mainstream transaction prices of components were as follows: PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.65 - 0.67 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [7]. Strategy - The supply and demand of polysilicon both weakened, with a significant decline in consumption and high inventory pressure. The market was affected by anti - involution policies and weak market reality. After the establishment of the platform company, attention should be paid to the implementation of production and sales restrictions. The market fluctuated greatly recently, and participants should pay attention to risk management. It was expected that the market would mainly fluctuate. For single - side trading, short - term range operation was recommended, and the main contract was expected to fluctuate in the range of 50000 - 57000 yuan/ton [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. In November, the supply and demand of the industrial silicon market will both decline, with a larger decline in supply. However, due to the large supply base and the replenishment of the spot market by cancelled warehouse receipts, there is still expected to be inventory accumulation pressure. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [1]. Polysilicon - It is expected to maintain a high - level range oscillation. The market is in a situation of both supply and demand decline, with inventory accumulation expected in each link, but strong spot support. The backwardation market structure will remain. For trading strategies, try to go long at around 50,000 for futures; hold or take profit on sell put options for options, and consider buying straddles if volatility decreases [2]. Tin - With strong fundamentals, a bullish view on tin prices is maintained. Hold previous long positions and pay attention to macro - end changes and the recovery of supply in Myanmar [4]. Aluminum - Alumina is expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation, with the main contract operating in the range of 2,700 - 2,850 yuan/ton. Whether the market can rebound depends on the actual production cut scale of existing enterprises and the inventory inflection point. Electrolytic aluminum is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract operating in the range of 21,100 - 21,700 yuan/ton. Focus on overseas monetary policy trends and domestic inventory destocking rhythm [6]. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate. The supply - side pressure has gradually eased, and the demand side has shown a structural improvement. However, the terminal demand has remained stable, and there is limited upward momentum. The main reference range is 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton [7]. Copper - In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the bottom center of copper prices. Pay attention to macro - drivers such as overseas interest - rate cut expectations. The main reference range is 85,500 - 87,500 yuan/ton [8]. Nickel - The macro - situation is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals remain weak. However, due to upstream production cuts and low valuations, the market may oscillate and repair. In the medium term, the abundant supply will still restrict the upward space of prices. The main reference range is 116,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton [9]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of ADC12 is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term, with the main contract operating in the range of 20,300 - 20,900 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply and the change in downstream procurement rhythm [11]. Stainless Steel - The policy - driven effect is difficult to be directly transmitted in the short term, cost support is weakening, and the fundamental structure has not improved significantly. There is still pressure on the supply - side steel mill production schedule and social inventory, and the demand is weak in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate, with the main operating range of 12,300 - 12,700 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The market is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, with the main reference range of 90,000 - 95,000 yuan. Although the market has a bullish sentiment, there is limited substantial new driving force [15]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Spot Prices and Basis - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon remained stable on November 25, 2025, while the basis of some varieties decreased. For example, the basis of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon decreased by 20 yuan to 540 yuan, with a decline of 3.57% [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price of polysilicon remained stable, while the price of battery cells decreased. The main contract of polysilicon futures closed at 54,730 yuan/ton, up 1,415 yuan/ton [2]. - **Tin**: The spot prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze River 1 tin increased by 1,700 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.58%. The LME 0 - 3 spread increased by 18.32 US dollars/ton, with a rise of 19.15% [4]. - **Aluminum**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 80 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.37%. The price of alumina in various regions remained stable [6]. - **Zinc**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 20 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.09%. The import loss was - 4,312 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32.69 yuan/ton [7]. - **Copper**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 375 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.43%. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 378.62 yuan/ton, with a rise of 13.42% [8]. - **Nickel**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 800 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.68%. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.22% [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained stable on November 26, 2025. The refined - scrap price difference of some regions changed, such as the refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum increased by 80 yuan/ton, with a rise of 4.57% [11]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained stable at 12,700 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, while the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 100 yuan/ton, with a rise of 0.79% [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The prices of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc. decreased slightly on November 26, 2025. For example, the price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.11% [15]. Monthly Spreads - Different contracts of various metals showed different changes in monthly spreads. For example, in industrial silicon, the spreads of contracts such as 2512 - 2601 remained unchanged; in tin, the spread of 2601 - 2602 increased by 450 yuan/ton, with a rise of 107.14% [1][4]. Fundamental Data Production - **Industrial Silicon**: In November, the national industrial silicon production is expected to decline to around 400,000 tons. In October, the national industrial silicon production was 452,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.46%. The production in Xinjiang increased by 15.94%, while that in Yunnan and Sichuan decreased [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The monthly production in October was 134,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.08%. The weekly production was 27,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.12% [2]. - **Tin**: In October, SMM refined tin production was 16,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 53.09%. The average operating rate was 66.81%, a month - on - month increase of 53.23% [4]. - **Aluminum**: In October, alumina production was 778,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.39%; electrolytic aluminum production was 374,210 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52% [6]. - **Zinc**: In October, refined zinc production was 617,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.85% [7]. - **Copper**: In October, electrolytic copper production was 1,091,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62% [8]. - **Nickel**: In October, China's refined nickel production was 35,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.84% [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 645,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.42%; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 286,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.06% [11]. - **Stainless Steel**: In October, the production of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (43 enterprises) was 1,787,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72% [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In October, lithium carbonate production was 92,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.73% [15]. Import and Export - Different metals have different import and export trends. For example, the import of refined tin in October decreased by 58.55% month - on - month, and the export decreased by 15.33% month - on - month; the import of electrolytic aluminum in October increased by 0.61% month - on - month, and the export decreased by 15.18% month - on - month [4][6]. Operating Rate - The operating rates of different industries also vary. For example, the national operating rate of industrial silicon in October was 68.12%, a month - on - month increase of 9.98%; the operating rate of aluminum profiles was 52.10%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.95% [1][6]. Inventory Changes - Different metals have different inventory trends. For example, the social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 0.37% week - on - week; the SHEF inventory of tin decreased by 0.46% week - on - week [1][4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Reports Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market in November saw a decline in both supply and demand, with a larger decline in supply. However, due to the large supply base and the replenishment of the spot market by cancelled warehouse receipts, there is still pressure to accumulate inventory. In December, the decline in production is expected to narrow, but if the organic silicon industry reduces production, the inventory accumulation pressure will increase. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton, and short positions can gradually take profits at low prices [1]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon is expected to stabilize. The market is in a situation of both supply and demand decline, but there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation in each link. In the short term, the supply of polysilicon is relatively high, but the long - term supply - demand balance driven by the exit of backward production capacity will support the price. The futures price has fallen back to a reasonable range, and attention should be paid to the support level, as well as the establishment of platform companies, production control, demand changes, and the digestion of warehouse receipts after the November contract cancellation [2]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The market maintains a supply - demand surplus pattern, with short - term supply pressure increasing. The price is expected to remain weakly volatile in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 2,700 - 2,900 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction trends of high - cost enterprises [3][4]. - **Aluminum**: The price will fluctuate between macro - level positive factors and weak fundamentals in the short term. The medium - term supply shortage pattern remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to downstream start - up changes, inventory reduction rhythms, and overseas policy trends [3][4]. Tin - Considering the strong fundamentals, a bullish view on tin prices is maintained. Existing long positions can be held, and attention should be paid to macro - level changes and the recovery of supply from Myanmar [6][7]. Zinc - The fundamentals provide limited support for the continuous upward movement of zinc prices. In the short term, it may still be volatile. An upward breakthrough requires an improvement in demand, and a downward breakthrough requires continuous inventory accumulation. The export of zinc ingots may boost domestic zinc prices, and the short - term main contract reference range is 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton [9]. Copper - The market expects the probability of an interest rate cut in December to decline, and the copper price is oscillating weakly. The long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price's bottom center. The main contract reference range is 85,000 - 86,500 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to changes in demand and overseas interest rate cut expectations [10]. Nickel - The macro - level exerts some pressure, and the improvement in fundamentals is limited. The medium - term supply is abundant, which restricts the upward space of the price. The short - term driving force is weak, and the main contract reference range is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro - level expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [12]. Stainless Steel - Policy and macro - level driving forces are insufficient, and the fundamental structure has not improved significantly. The supply - side pressure from steel mills' production schedules and social inventory remains, and demand is weak. The short - term price is expected to be weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range of 12,300 - 12,600 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to steel mills' production reduction and nickel - iron prices [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The market is in a situation of both supply and demand growth. The short - term price is expected to be volatile, and the main contract LC2601 has risen. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of large enterprises, changes in demand after the peak season, and the possible acceleration of the release of upstream projects at high prices. Long positions established earlier can consider partial profit - taking [18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of industrial silicon increased by 50 - 150 yuan/ton, while the futures price decreased. The basis of some varieties changed significantly [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spreads of different contracts showed various changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: National and regional production, as well as the national start - up rate, showed different trends. The production of some downstream products also changed, and the inventory of industrial silicon showed an overall upward trend [1]. Polysilicon - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The spot price of polysilicon was stable, the futures price fell, and the arbitrage window closed. The component price gradually recovered [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly and monthly data showed that polysilicon production increased slightly, silicon wafer production decreased slightly, and the inventories of both increased [2]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Price and Spread**: The price of aluminum increased slightly, and the price of alumina in some regions decreased. The spreads and premiums also changed [3][4]. - **Fundamental Data**: Alumina and electrolytic aluminum production increased in October. The start - up rates of aluminum processing industries showed different trends, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum remained stable [3][4]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of tin remained unchanged, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased significantly [6]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spreads of different contracts showed various changes [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Tin ore imports decreased in September, while refined tin production increased in October. The import and export volumes of refined tin changed slightly [6]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: The price of zinc increased slightly, and the spreads and import - export profits changed [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: Refined zinc production increased in October, and the start - up rates of zinc processing industries showed different trends. The inventory of LME increased, and the domestic zinc ingot inventory decreased [9]. Copper - **Price and Spread**: The price of copper increased slightly, and the spreads, premiums, and import - export profits changed [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: Electrolytic copper production and import volume decreased in October. The start - up rates of copper rod production showed different trends, and the inventory of different types of copper changed [10]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: The price of nickel increased slightly, and the spreads and import - export profits changed [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's refined nickel production and import volume increased. The inventory of SHFE and social inventory increased, while the LME inventory decreased [12]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of stainless steel decreased slightly, and the spreads changed [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel increased slightly, the import volume increased, and the export volume decreased. The social inventory decreased slightly, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: The price of lithium carbonate increased, and the spreads changed [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production and demand of lithium carbonate increased in October, and the inventory decreased. The production capacity and start - up rate increased [18].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On the supply side of polysilicon, as the southwest region enters the dry season, power supply is tight and costs have risen significantly. Polysilicon producers in Sichuan, Yunnan and other places face high cost pressure, and some plan to reduce the operating rate. In the northwest regions such as Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, the power cost is relatively stable, and the polysilicon production capacity runs smoothly. [3] - On the demand side, the downstream markets of cells and modules are weak, wafer producers' inventory pressure has increased, and they have to cut production to ease the supply - demand contradiction. The slowdown in end - market demand and the continuous decline in photovoltaic product prices have compressed corporate profit margins and dampened production enthusiasm. [3] - Polysilicon prices have fallen significantly today, and overall demand has not increased significantly. Attention should be paid to the resistance level of 56,000 yuan. [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 52,450 yuan/ton, down 2,175 yuan; the main position is 134,292 lots, down 25 lots; the December - January basis of polysilicon is 1,965 yuan, down 195 yuan; the polysilicon - industrial silicon spread is 43,375 yuan/ton, down 1,860 yuan. [3] 现货市场 - The spot price of polysilicon is 52,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of N - type silicon wafers (210R) is 1.27 yuan/piece, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.5 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the basis of polysilicon is - 150 yuan/ton, up 2,175 yuan. [3] Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 9,075 yuan/ton, down 315 yuan; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9,550 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 70,232.72 tons, down 6,409.29 tons; the monthly import volume is 1,939.85 tons, up 602.27 tons; the monthly output of industrial silicon is 402,800 tons, up 36,000 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons. [3] Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 130,000 tons, up 5,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 1,292 tons, up 286 tons; the weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 6.92 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly average import price of polysilicon is 2.35 US dollars/ton, down 0.27 US dollars/ton. [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 7,0873,000 kilowatts, up 101,600 kilowatts; the weekly average price of mainstream photovoltaic modules is 0.73 yuan/watt, down 0.01 yuan; the weekly comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon is 32.82, unchanged; the daily average price of solar cells is 0.82 yuan/W, up 0.01 yuan; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 129,531,200 pieces, down 19,491,300 pieces; the monthly import volume is 14,733,700 pieces, down 6,706,500 pieces; the monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.3 US dollars/piece, up 0.06 US dollars/piece. [3] Industry News - On November 12th, Luxi Chemical (000830.SZ) led an organic silicon industry meeting. The industry agreed to cut the operating rate by 30% starting in early December and raise the price of organic silicon DMC to 13,500 yuan/ton within half a month. [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current supply - demand situation in the industrial silicon market remains weak, and the silicon price is under pressure. For polysilicon, the downstream restocking willingness is limited, and there is pressure for the spot price to continue rising, which restricts the upside space of the futures market [1] Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon - **Price Information**: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 9,350 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained flat at 9,750 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 4.57% to 9,390 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply Situation**: The southwest production area has entered the high - cost dry season. Some silicon enterprises stopped production at the end of October, and the overall production in November is expected to drop below 400,000 tons. The north has a slight increase in furnace operation [1] - **Demand Situation**: Polysilicon and organic silicon enterprises are reducing production, and the demand for industrial silicon may decline. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at low prices is limited [1] - **Investment Strategy**: The current supply - demand situation remains weak, and there is pressure on the silicon price. The trading strategy is to operate within a range, and pay attention to the registration of new warehouse receipts [1] Polysilicon - **Price Information**: N - type dense material remained flat at 51 yuan/kg, N - type re - feeding material rose 0.29% to 52.30 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 4.63% to 54,625 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply Situation**: Silicon material enterprises are reducing production, but with new capacity coming on stream, the output in October may increase slightly, and it is expected to drop to about 120,000 tons in November [1] - **Demand Situation**: The polysilicon market is trading lightly, with few new transactions. The downstream is resistant to high - priced resources, waiting for industry policy guidance [1] - **Investment Strategy**: The downstream restocking willingness is limited, and there is pressure for the spot price to continue rising. The trading strategy is to go long on dips before the supply - side reform policy is implemented, and pay attention to protecting profits for existing long positions [1] Industry News - Yunnan Energy Investment won the bid for the Dazhushan Wind Farm Project in Huize County, Yunnan, with an expected installed capacity of 25,000 kilowatts [1] - Germany's new photovoltaic installed capacity in October was 1,145 megawatts. The installed capacity of ground - mounted photovoltaic systems exceeded that of rooftop systems in October, while the opposite was true in September. The demand for rooftop systems continued to decline [1]

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Dark-colored rubber shows an inventory accumulation inflection point, and with weak macro sentiment, rubber prices have further declined. Future focus should be on raw material output during the peak production season in the main producing areas and macro changes. If raw material supply is smooth, there is room for further decline; if not, the rubber price is expected to fluctuate between 15,000 - 15,500 [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On November 5, prices of various natural rubber products showed different trends, with some decreasing and others remaining stable. For example, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole - miscible rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai decreased by 250 yuan to 14,350 yuan, a decrease of 1.71% [1]. - **Inter - monthly Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts also changed. For example, the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 5 yuan to 150 yuan, a decrease of 3.23% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, production in Thailand, Indonesia, and other countries changed, with Thailand's production decreasing by 5.45% to 451.50. Tire production and export data also showed fluctuations. For example, domestic tire production in August increased by 9.10% to 10,295.40 million pieces [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded area inventory and factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber increased, while the出库 rate of dry rubber in the bonded warehouse in Qingdao decreased [1]. Group 2: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - **Soda Ash**: The price of soda ash is trending weakly. There is obvious over - supply, and the market is under pressure. In the medium - term, demand will continue to be based on rigid needs, and the market will face further pressure without actual capacity withdrawal or load reduction. It is advisable to take a bearish approach in operation [3]. - **Glass**: The news of production line shutdown in Shahe area has a short - term emotional impact on the market. In the long - term, there will be production line restart, which will increase supply pressure. Although there is some demand expectation during the peak season, the glass industry still needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem. There is short - term support for the market, and short - term long opportunities for low - level rebounds can be captured [3]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: On November 5, glass prices in different regions showed little change, with only the South China quotation decreasing by 10 yuan to 1,190 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.83%. The 01 basis increased by 8 yuan to 33 yuan, an increase of 32.00% [3]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: Soda ash prices in different regions remained stable, and the 01 - 4 spread decreased by 6 yuan to 105 yuan, a decrease of 5.41% [3]. - **Supply**: Soda ash production and float glass and photovoltaic glass melting volume data showed different trends. Soda ash production decreased slightly, and photovoltaic glass melting volume decreased by 0.84% [3]. - **Inventory**: Glass factory - warehouse inventory and soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased, while soda ash delivery warehouse inventory decreased [3]. - **Real Estate Data**: Real estate data showed negative growth in new construction area, completion area, and sales area, with the sales area decreasing by 6.50% [3]. Group 3: Log Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The log futures market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Although the disk price is at a relatively low level and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets provides some support, the market is still expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [4]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On November 5, log futures prices showed an upward trend. For example, the price of the log 2511 contract increased by 2 yuan to 778.5 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 0.26%. Spot prices of some radiata pine and spruce in ports remained stable [4]. - **Import Cost Calculation**: The import theoretical cost increased by 6.84 yuan to 812.97 yuan, an increase of 1% [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is increasing, with the expected arrival of 17 ships of New Zealand logs at 13 Chinese ports from November 3 - 9, an increase of 2 ships and 16% in volume compared to the previous week. Demand is slightly declining, with the average daily log出库 volume decreasing by 0.16 million cubic meters to 6.28 million cubic meters as of October 31 [4]. Group 4: Industrial Silicon Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. Although there are expectations of supply contraction, it is expected to have little short - term impact. The market still faces inventory accumulation pressure in November, but there is cost support at the bottom. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan per ton. If the price drops to around 8,500 yuan per ton, long positions can be considered [5]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Main Contract Basis**: On November 5, spot prices of various industrial silicon products remained stable, and the basis of different benchmarks changed. For example, the basis of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon decreased by 135 yuan to 430 yuan, a decrease of 23.89% [5]. - **Inter - monthly Spreads**: Spreads between different contracts changed. For example, the 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 25 yuan to - 400 yuan, an increase of 6.25% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: National industrial silicon production increased by 7.46% to 45.22 million tons, and production in different regions also showed different trends. For example, Xinjiang's production increased by 15.94% to 23.56 million tons [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: Inventory in different regions and types showed different trends. For example, Yunnan's factory - warehouse inventory increased by 0.05 million tons to 3.46 million tons, an increase of 1.47% [5]. Group 5: Polysilicon Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - In November, the supply pressure is decreasing, but the demand is also decreasing, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand. There is still a risk of inventory accumulation. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in a high - level range. In trading, it is advisable to try long positions when the futures price returns to the lower end of the range, sell put options around 50,000 in the options market, and hold photovoltaic ETFs, new energy ETFs, or related stocks in the equity market [6]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On November 5, spot prices of N - type polysilicon products were mostly stable, and the N - type material basis increased by 360 yuan to - 1,155 yuan, an increase of 23.76% [6]. - **Futures Prices and Inter - monthly Spreads**: The futures price decreased by 360 yuan to 53,355 yuan per ton, and the spreads between different contracts changed significantly [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly and monthly polysilicon and silicon wafer production, import, and export data showed different trends. For example, weekly polysilicon production decreased by 4.41% to 2.82 million tons, while monthly production increased by 3.08% to 13.40 million tons [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon and silicon wafer inventories increased, and the polysilicon warehouse receipt increased by 140 to 9,730 [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 50.915 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 13.10%, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of 3.403 billion yuan, which is an improvement compared to the same period last year [1] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 18.101 billion yuan, down 9.78% year-on-year and 5.53% quarter-on-quarter, with a net loss of 834 million yuan, showing a narrowing of losses [1][2] - The company is experiencing operational losses due to the competitive environment in the photovoltaic industry, where product prices have fallen below industry cost lines [2] - The company is optimistic about price recovery as the "anti-involution" measures in the photovoltaic sector are being implemented, leading to price increases for silicon materials and wafers [2] - The company is committed to advancing its BC technology, achieving a battery efficiency of 27.81% and a module efficiency of over 26% in the first half of 2025, setting new records in the industry [3] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 70.199 billion yuan, 82.576 billion yuan, and 90.024 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be -4.019 billion yuan, 2.577 billion yuan, and 4.904 billion yuan [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 18.101 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.78% year-on-year and 5.53% quarter-on-quarter, with a net loss of 834 million yuan [1] - The first three quarters of 2025 saw a total revenue of 50.915 billion yuan, with a net loss of 3.403 billion yuan [1] Market Environment - The photovoltaic industry is facing challenges with product prices falling below cost lines, leading to operational losses for the company [2] - Recent price increases in silicon materials and wafers are expected to improve profitability as the "anti-involution" measures take effect [2] Technology and Innovation - The company is focused on enhancing its BC technology, achieving significant efficiency improvements in its products [3] - The company anticipates that by the end of 2025, over 60% of its high-efficiency battery capacity will be based on HPBC2.0 technology [3] Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 70.199 billion yuan, 82.576 billion yuan, and 90.024 billion yuan, with net profits projected to improve significantly by 2027 [3][4]