报告日期：2025年10月10日 英大证券研究所·证券研究报告 2025年四季度A股市场投资策略报告 上涨行情或未结束，但波动率或加大，风格或趋向均衡 报告概要： 震荡向上或为主，结构性机会丰富 （2025.7.18） 短期波动不改慢牛格局，逢低布局三条主线 （2025.4.21） 1.美国关税和货币等政策的不确定性 2.中美关税博弈的不确定性 3.国内经济修复力度不及预期 4.美国经济衰退及海外金融风险超预期 5.反内卷政策落地不及预期 6.地缘冲突升级 7.流动性边际收紧 8.市场交易结构拥挤 相关报告 指数震荡慢牛，结构性机会占优，流动性驱 动或向业绩驱动切换（2025.1.7） 普涨后"持优汰劣"，这轮牛市有多长？关 注基本面改善力度（2024.10.8） 结构重于总量，风格交替轮动，逢低均衡配 置（2024.7.5） 震荡中延续修复，结构重于总量，红利股为 盾，新质生产力为矛（2024.4.8） 筑底回升，科创为先，弹性占优，结构为主 （2024.1.2） 否极泰来（2023.1.16） 慢牛后期，偏重结构，增速为王，挖掘成长 （2021.7.1） 全面注册制下，"慢牛"行稳致远，低蓝筹+ 高科技两 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **MSCI China Index** and its performance in the context of the Chinese stock market, highlighting its recent structural improvements and growth potential [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - The **MSCI China Index** has shown a **48% cumulative return** over the past 12 months, with a **38% year-to-date return**, second only to South Korea's **50%** [1][9]. - The **earnings growth** has been a significant driver of market returns, contributing positively for three consecutive years since 2023: **0.6%** in 2023, **5.0%** in 2024, and **3.2%** in 2025 [2][13]. - The **profitability trend** has stabilized, with a notable shift in leading sectors, particularly in **internet, finance, and technology**, which now dominate the index [2][24]. - The **earnings revision breadth (ERB)** turned positive in August 2025, making MSCI China one of the only two major markets globally to exhibit this trend [18][24]. Future Outlook - The outlook for **sustainable earnings growth** is optimistic, particularly in key sectors such as **internet, technology, pharmaceuticals, and automotive** [3][40]. - The **banking sector** remains an exception with negative revisions, but its impact on overall earnings growth is expected to be limited [3][40]. - The **e-commerce sector** is anticipated to see a reduction in profit downgrades as price competition peaks in Q3 2025 [3][40]. Important but Overlooked Content - The report emphasizes the **structural improvements** in the Chinese market, including a recovery in **return on equity (ROE)** and a shift towards high-quality large-cap stocks [14][24]. - The **MSCI China forward P/E ratio** increased from **8.7x** in August 2024 to **12.3x** in September 2025, reflecting a **42%** rise, indicating a revaluation based on improved fundamentals [14]. - The **internet, finance, and technology sectors** collectively account for **76.9%** of the MSCI China Index, up from **70.4%** in 2022, highlighting a significant shift in market composition [24][26]. - The **expected contributions** to total earnings per share (EPS) from key sectors for 2025 and 2026 are projected to be around **80%**, with the internet sector expected to regain its leading position in EPS growth by 2026 [26][31]. This comprehensive analysis provides a detailed understanding of the current state and future potential of the Chinese stock market, particularly through the lens of the MSCI China Index.

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Guobang Pharmaceutical has completed a share transfer agreement with a state-owned operating company, involving approximately 38.31 million shares, which accounts for 6.85% of the company's total shares [1] - The shareholders involved in the transfer are Shiqihui, Hong Dehui, and Shi Qingde, who are transferring their shares of approximately 27.45 million, 10.23 million, and 630,000 shares respectively [1] - The share transfer was confirmed by the Shanghai Stock Exchange on September 23, 2025, and the transfer registration was completed on September 29, 2025 [1] Group 2 - For the year 2024, Guobang Pharmaceutical's revenue composition is as follows: the pharmaceutical segment accounts for 64.87%, the animal health products segment accounts for 34.24%, and other businesses account for 0.88% [2] - As of the latest report, Guobang Pharmaceutical has a market capitalization of 12.4 billion yuan [3]

融泰药业通过B2C及O2O电商平台（如京东健康、阿里健康、美团医药等）向个人客户销售医药产品， 并为制药公司提供集成品牌运营、数据管理、全渠道溯源及智能库存管理等服务。公司拥有自有零售药 房品牌"宜康思大药房"，作为药品销售的额外渠道，并整合了商业保险在线医疗服务及患教项目。公司 通过院外零售药房和基层医疗机构的销售模式，将医药产品销售给区域性销售伙伴，再通过B2B电商平 台（如药师帮、1药城）销售给基层终端。 融泰药业股份有限公司已向港交所提交上市申请，由中信证券独家保荐。 融泰药业是中国领先的院外医药服务商，提供数字化营销和供应链解决方案。按2024年收入计算，公司 是中国院外医药市场第四大营销和供应链解决方案提供商，以及中国院外医药市场第一大面向个人客户 的营销和供应链解决方案提供商。 融泰药业战略性与全国性及区域性大型连锁药店合作，补充销售渠道，构建了全面的院外医药零售网 络。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - During the upcoming National Day holiday (October 1 - 8), the market has certain seasonal patterns, such as the risk of pre - holiday adjustment in the stock index and post - holiday upward movement, and pre - holiday depreciation and post - holiday repair of the RMB exchange rate. Gold has a relatively low risk for holding positions during the holiday, and there may be opportunities in commodity sectors like coking coal, steel, and non - metallic building materials in the month after the holiday [1]. - The gap between strong domestic expectations and weak reality has intensified. In August, China's economic data showed signs of weakness, and external tariff pressure increased. Recently, the government has frequently mentioned pro - growth policies, and attention should be paid to post - holiday policy expectations and the possible correction of the current "off - peak in peak season" expectation [1]. - The outlook for US inflation is clearer. The US economic data in August shows a mixed picture, with the ISM manufacturing index in contraction, CPI rising, PPI falling, and employment data underperforming expectations, which further supports the Fed's interest rate cut. The Fed has cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the subsequent interest rate cut cycle is expected to be smooth. Meanwhile, the risk of a US government shutdown has increased, and the US has imposed additional tariffs [2]. - In the commodity market, the black and new energy metal sectors are sensitive to domestic supply - side factors, while precious metals and agricultural products are related to overseas inflation expectations. Different commodity sectors have different fundamentals and investment opportunities [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - **Holiday Risk Management**: During the National Day holiday, there are 6 overseas trading days. Historically, the stock index has a risk of pre - holiday adjustment and post - holiday rise, and the RMB exchange rate has a pattern of pre - holiday depreciation and post - holiday repair. Gold has a low risk for holding positions during the holiday, and post - holiday opportunities can be found in coking coal, steel, and non - metallic building materials. Important events during the holiday include the US government's temporary spending bill, US September non - farm payroll data, and the OPEC+ meeting [1]. - **Domestic Economic Situation**: In August, China's economic data showed "slow industry, weak investment, and sluggish consumption". External tariff pressure increased, and the government has frequently mentioned pro - growth policies. Attention should be paid to post - holiday policy expectations and the possible correction of the "off - peak in peak season" expectation [1]. US Economic Situation - **Inflation and Interest Rates**: The US ISM manufacturing index in August was in contraction for the sixth consecutive month, with new orders improving and the price index falling again. The CPI rose to 2.9% year - on - year, while the PPI growth slowed. The employment data was worse than expected, supporting the Fed's interest rate cut. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the subsequent interest rate cut cycle is expected to be smooth [2]. - **Other Economic Indicators**: The US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, and new home sales unexpectedly soared to an annualized 800,000 units. The risk of a US government shutdown has increased, and the US has imposed additional tariffs on various imported products [2]. Commodity Market - **Black and New Energy Metal Sectors**: These sectors are sensitive to domestic supply - side factors. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" situation. The long - term supply limitation in the non - ferrous sector has not been alleviated, but the marginal supply has slightly increased recently [3]. - **Precious Metals and Agricultural Products**: Precious metals and agricultural products are related to overseas inflation expectations. Although gold experienced "selling on the fact" after the Fed's interest rate cut, it is still expected to strengthen due to the de - dollarization trend and the interest rate cut cycle. Agricultural products are driven by tariffs and inflation expectations in the short term but need fundamental support and are subject to Sino - US negotiation disturbances [3]. - **Energy and Chemical Sectors**: The medium - term fundamental supply of energy is considered relatively loose, as OPEC+ plans to increase production in October. In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of products like methanol, PVC, caustic soda, and urea is worth noting [3]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products and precious metals at low prices [4]. Macroeconomic Data - **US Economic Heat Map**: It shows various economic indicators such as GDP growth, investment, employment, inflation, consumption, fiscal revenue and expenditure, and trade from January 2024 to September 2025, reflecting the overall economic situation of the US [7]. - **European Economic Heat Map**: Presents data on GDP growth, industrial confidence, investment, employment, consumption, inflation, trade, credit, and fiscal surplus in Europe from October 2024 to September 2025 [8]. - **Chinese Economic Heat Map**: Displays China's GDP growth, trade, investment, consumption, inflation, financial, and fiscal data from September 2024 to August 2025, showing the characteristics of China's economic operation [9].

据招股书，融泰药业是中国领先的院外医药服务商，专注于数字化营销和供应链解决方案。根据弗若斯特 沙利文的资料，按2024年收入计，该公司是中国院外医药市场第四大营销和供应链解决方案提供商，以及 中国院外医药市场第一大面向个人客户的营销和供应链解决方案提供商。该公司自主开发了数字化精准营 销体系，并整合数字化业务及数据平台与智能物流基础设施，能为制药公司提供全流程全渠道医药销售解 决方案。该公司赋能上游制药公司在广阔而高度分散的院外医药市场中有效触达并服务终端客户，提高了 市场效率与可及性，驱动院外医药流通价值链扩展。 据港交所9月26日披露，广东融泰药业股份有限公司(简称：融泰药业)向港交所主板提交上市申请书，中信 证券为独家保荐人。 | 纂頂下的[編纂]數目 | … | [编纂]股H股(視乎[编纂]行使與否而定) | | --- | --- | --- | | [编纂]數目 | | [编纂]股H股(可予[编纂]) | | [编纂]數目 | … | [編纂]股H股(可予[編纂]及視乎[編纂]行使與否而 | | | | 定) | | 最高[编纂] | ። | 每股H股[編纂]港元(須於申請時以港元繳足,另 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - Guangdong Rontai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. has submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with CITIC Securities acting as the sole sponsor [1]. Company Overview - Rontai Pharmaceutical is a leading provider of out-of-hospital pharmaceutical services in China, focusing on digital marketing and supply chain solutions. It ranks as the fourth largest provider in the out-of-hospital pharmaceutical market and the largest for individual customer marketing and supply chain solutions [3]. - The company has developed a digital precision marketing system and integrates digital business and data platforms with smart logistics infrastructure, offering comprehensive pharmaceutical sales solutions to pharmaceutical companies [3]. Business Model - Rontai Pharmaceutical plays a crucial role in the e-commerce sales channels for pharmaceutical companies, sourcing products from upstream manufacturers and selling them through platforms like JD Health, Alibaba Health, Meituan Medicine, and Dingdang [3]. - The company has established its own retail pharmacy brand, Yikangsi, to directly sell pharmaceutical products to individual customers, simplifying the purchasing process and meeting the growing demand for convenience [4]. Sales Channels - In addition to e-commerce, Rontai Pharmaceutical collaborates with major national and regional chain pharmacies to enhance its sales channels, creating a comprehensive out-of-hospital retail network [6]. - The company has expanded its reach to more grassroots terminals through third-party platforms, further strengthening its penetration in the out-of-hospital market [5]. Financial Performance - For the six months ending June 30, 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025, the company reported revenues of approximately RMB 2.427 billion, RMB 2.916 billion, RMB 2.875 billion, and RMB 1.540 billion, respectively. The net profits for the same periods were RMB 14.78 million, RMB 45.72 million, RMB 3.74 million, and RMB 17.09 million [6][7].

特朗普：从2025年10月1日起，美国将对任何品牌或专利的医药产品征收100%的关税，除非这些公司正在美国建立他们的制药工厂。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):特朗普宣布，自10月1日起对进口重型卡车征收25%的关税。 ...

证券日报网讯联化科技（002250）9月25日在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，医药业务上半年度增长 显著，主要系集中发货所致。目前，公司医药事业部已与一批国内外优质客户建立稳定商业联系，业务 合作覆盖范围持续扩大。公司跟随客户业务管线布局公司产品管线，未来随着公司与客户业务的不断深 入，客户专利期内产品的持续推广，公司医药业务将能继续实现增长。 ...

Group 1 - The strategic agreement between the Mexican Industrial Chamber Federation (CONCAMIN) and the Moroccan Business Confederation (CGEM) aims to enhance experience sharing, innovation promotion, and investment strengthening, reflecting a political will to establish direct partnerships among emerging economies beyond the traditional Euro-American model [1] - For Morocco, this agreement continues its economic diversification strategy, leveraging its geographical advantage to become a gateway to Africa, while expanding its partnership scope beyond Europe and the Mediterranean [1] - Mexico seeks to diversify its export markets despite deep integration into the North American market through the USMCA, using the alliance with Morocco to access Africa and Europe, and extend trade reach to the Middle East via Morocco's logistics corridor network [1] Group 2 - The trade volume between Morocco and Mexico remains weak, with Mexico's exports to Morocco projected at approximately $30.4 million in 2024, and total bilateral trade nearing $100 million [2] - Morocco's exports primarily consist of phosphates and derivatives, textiles, and electronic components, while Mexico's exports are mainly agricultural and pharmaceutical products [2]