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渤海证券研究所晨会纪要(2025.09.15)-20250915
BOHAI SECURITIES· 2025-09-15 05:17
Macro and Strategy Research - The US labor market shows signs of weakness, with August non-farm employment data falling short of expectations and previous months' figures revised downwards, indicating a potential deterioration trend [3][4] - In Europe, the European Central Bank remains confident about future inflation and economic growth, with market expectations for a rate cut before mid-2026 dropping below 50% [4] - Domestic exports in China have declined year-on-year due to high base effects from last year, but exports to non-US regions continue to perform better, which may influence future growth [4][7] - The PPI in China is expected to show a low recovery in September, while CPI growth is significantly affected by food and energy prices [4][7] Fixed Income Research - The yield curve has steepened, with the bond market under pressure due to a strong equity market and adjustments in redemption fees affecting market sentiment [8][9] - In the primary market, the issuance of interest rate bonds totaled 74, with a net financing amount of 45.2 billion yuan, indicating a gradual decrease in supply pressure [7][9] - The central bank's actions, including potential 14-day reverse repos, will be crucial in determining the liquidity situation in the market [9] Industry Research - Chinese pharmaceutical companies showcased impressive research results at the World Lung Cancer Conference (WCLC), highlighting the strength of domestic innovation [10][12] - Hengrui Medicine has signed a licensing agreement for the HRS-1893 project and has received drug registration approval, indicating its ongoing expansion efforts [11][12] - The overall performance of the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector has been positive, with the industry index showing a 1.76% increase, outperforming other sectors [11][12] - The upcoming China Clinical Oncology Society (CSCO) annual meeting and the European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) conference are expected to provide further insights into the industry's development [12]
新药周观点:百利天恒EGFR/HER3双抗ADC优异数据披露,后续临床推进值得期待-20250914
Guotou Securities· 2025-09-14 04:04
Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" [6] Core Insights - The report highlights the promising clinical data of BaiLi Tianheng's EGFR/HER3 dual antibody ADC, iza-bren, for treating EGFR mutation lung cancer, which shows potential for further clinical advancement [2][3][20][21][23] Summary by Sections Weekly New Drug Market Review - From September 8 to September 14, 2025, the top five gainers in the new drug sector were: - Saintno Pharmaceutical (+32.00%) - Junshengtai (+23.73%) - Canaan Bio (+20.43%) - Rongchang Bio (+16.52%) - Hengrui Medicine (+11.91%) - The top five losers were: - Basestone Pharmaceuticals (-18.90%) - Laika Pharmaceuticals (-18.12%) - Gilead Sciences (-16.93%) - Maiwei Bio (-14.41%) - Yifang Bio (-12.46%) [1][15] Recommended Stocks to Watch - The report suggests focusing on several potential catalysts in the sector, including academic conferences, business development realizations, and insurance negotiations. Key stocks to watch include: 1. Potential overseas licensed MNC heavyweights: - Differentiated GLP-1 assets: Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical, Gilead Sciences, Borui Pharmaceutical, Kangyuan Pharmaceutical - Upgraded PD-1 products: Kangfang Bio and other PD-1/VEGF assets, Innovent Biologics - Breakthroughs in autoimmune fields: Yifang Bio, China Antibody - Innovative target ADCs: Fuhong Hanlin, Shiyao Group 2. MNC-certified products with high overseas volume certainty: - Upgraded PD-1 products: Sanofi Pharmaceutical - GLP-1 assets: Lianbang Pharmaceutical - ADC assets: Kelong Botai, BaiLi Tianheng 3. Products likely to benefit from insurance negotiations and innovative drug directories [2][20] New Drug Industry Focus Analysis - At the recent 2025 World Lung Cancer Conference (WCLC), BaiLi Tianheng presented results from two studies on its EGFR×HER3 dual antibody ADC, iza-bren, showing excellent clinical data in both first-line and second-line treatments for advanced or metastatic EGFR mutation NSCLC. The results indicate a promising future for its application in relevant indications [2][20][21] New Drug Approval and Acceptance Status - No new drug or new indication applications were approved this week, but seven new drug or new indication applications were accepted [3][25] Clinical Application Approval and Acceptance Status - This week, 41 new drug clinical applications were approved, and 46 new drug clinical applications were accepted [9][28]