来自 AMD、英伟达、博通和主要研究公司的越来越多的预测表明，在人工智能基础设施建设规模比 该行业历史上任何一次扩张都大数倍的推动下，半导体市场将在本十年结束前突破万亿美元大关。 Creative Strategies 的最新分析将这种转变称为"千兆周期"（Gigacycle），并指出人工智能前所未 有的需求规模正在同时重塑计算、内存、网络和存储的经济格局。2024 年全球半导体收入约为 6500 亿美元，但目前多项预测显示，2028 年或 2029 年将突破万亿美元大关。人工智能是造成这一预测 上调的主要原因。 AMD首席执行官苏姿丰(Lisa Su)近期上调了公司长期预期，称到2030年人工智能硬件市场规模将达 到1万亿美元，并预测AMD整体复合年增长率将达到35%，数据中心业务的复合年增长率将达到60% 左右。她还公开反对近几个月来盛行的人工智能泡沫论调。 与此同时，英伟达给出了更为宏大的预期，在2026年第二季度财报电话会议上，该公司将未来五年人 工智能基础设施市场规模描述为3万亿至4万亿美元。这一数字基于超大规模数据中心、自主人工智能 项目和企业集群的系统级部署。 公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推 ...

该公司股价在财报发布后一度下跌5%，但在公司高管于业绩电话会议上给出强劲的数据中心业务预测后，股价逆转走势，盘后交易中涨幅一度高达 14%。 迈威尔科技因下一财年数据中心业务增长指引（预计同比增超25%）远超预期，股价盘后飙升。这显示投资者当前更看重AI硬件的长期增长前景，而非 短期业绩，并认可其在定制芯片市场的竞争力。 推动股价上涨的关键是首席执行官Matt Murphy在电话会上透露，公司预计"下一财年数据中心收入的同比增长将超过25%"。这一指引超出了华尔街的 普遍预期，向市场传递了其在人工智能硬件领域核心业务增长动能的积极信号。 Murphy还补充称，这一乐观预测并未包含公司近期宣布的收购计划。该公司同日宣布，将以约32.5亿美元的现金和股票交易方式，收购人工智能初创 公司Celestial AI。 市场分歧与ASIC前景 在人工智能热潮的推动下，迈威尔科技的股价在2024年飙升了83%，但今年以来已下跌16%，反映出在激烈竞争中，市场对其赢得长期订单的能力仍 存在疑虑。 投资者的分歧核心在于定制ASIC芯片（专用集成电路）的前景。ASIC是为特定用途定制的芯片，例如谷歌的TPU，被视为英伟达GPU的 ...

Overall Performance - Broadcom (AVGO.O) achieved revenue of $15.95 billion in the latest quarter, a year-over-year increase of 22%, meeting market expectations of $15.86 billion, primarily driven by AI business and VMware integration pricing adjustments [1][12][40] - The company's gross margin was 67.1%, while the adjusted operating gross margin, excluding acquisition amortization and restructuring costs, was 76.8%, reflecting a sequential decline due to the lower margin of custom ASIC business [2][45] Semiconductor Business - The semiconductor segment generated $9.17 billion in revenue, with a sequential increase of $760 million, largely attributed to AI business growth [3][59] - AI business revenue reached $5.2 billion, an increase of $800 million quarter-over-quarter, exceeding market expectations of $5.1 billion, driven by increased production of Google's TPU v6 [3][21] - Non-AI business revenue was $4 billion, showing a sequential decline of 1%, with wireless and industrial segments remaining flat while enterprise storage continued to decline [5][67] Infrastructure Software - The infrastructure software segment reported $6.79 billion in revenue, a sequential increase of $190 million, mainly due to VMware acquisition integration and subscription model adjustments [6][72] - The transition from perpetual licensing to subscription models is expected to benefit software business growth, although the high-growth phase has likely ended [6][72] Operating Expenses - Core operating expenses (R&D and SG&A) totaled $4.12 billion, a sequential increase of $346 million, with the core operating expense ratio around 30% [7][46] - Excluding stock-based compensation, core operating expenses were $2.05 billion, reflecting a sequential decline of $150 million, indicating ongoing cost control efforts post-VMware acquisition [8][13] VMware Integration Progress - The total debt to LTM adjusted EBITDA ratio decreased to 2.3, indicating that the impact of the VMware acquisition is being gradually absorbed [9][54] - The company is focusing on AI business growth following the integration of VMware, with significant attention on custom ASIC developments [16][74] Future Guidance - For Q4 FY2025, Broadcom expects revenue of approximately $17.4 billion, surpassing market expectations of $17 billion, with AI business projected to grow to $6.2 billion [10][21] - The company anticipates continued growth in AI revenue, supported by increased capital expenditures from major cloud providers [4][17] AI Business Insights - Broadcom's AI revenue is primarily driven by three major clients: Google, Meta, and ByteDance, with expectations for further growth as these companies increase capital expenditures [16][21] - The company has secured over $10 billion in AI-related orders from a fourth client, with deliveries expected to start in Q3 FY2026, enhancing future revenue prospects [25][64] - Broadcom's ASIC business is expected to benefit from the ongoing demand from cloud service providers, with a strong pipeline of potential clients transitioning to production [18][66] Market Position and Valuation - Broadcom's current market capitalization is approximately $1.4 trillion, with a projected core operating profit of around 36 times PE for FY2026 [29] - Compared to Nvidia's valuation, Broadcom's higher valuation reflects market expectations for growth in its custom ASIC business and AI chip market share [30][36] - Broadcom has surpassed AMD in market share within the AI chip market, achieving 9.6% compared to AMD's 6.0%, indicating a strengthening position in the custom ASIC segment [31][36]

Overall Performance - Broadcom reported Q3 FY2025 revenue of $15.95 billion, a 22% year-over-year increase, meeting market expectations, driven primarily by AI business and VMware integration adjustments [1][18] - The gross margin for the quarter was 67.1%, with an adjusted operating gross margin of 76.8%, reflecting a structural impact from the increased share of lower-margin custom ASIC business [1][20] Semiconductor Business - The semiconductor segment generated $9.17 billion in revenue, with AI contributing significantly, achieving $5.2 billion, an increase of $800 million quarter-over-quarter [1][30] - Non-AI semiconductor revenue was $4 billion, showing a 1% decline, indicating a relatively weak performance in this area [2][30] AI Business Insights - The company expects AI revenue to reach $6.2 billion in the next quarter, reflecting a $1 billion increase, supported by rising capital expenditures from major clients like Google and Meta [2][9] - Broadcom's AI revenue is primarily derived from three major clients: Google, Meta, and ByteDance, with a fourth client recently placing over $10 billion in AI-related orders [11][30] Infrastructure Software - The infrastructure software segment achieved $6.79 billion in revenue, a $1.9 billion increase, largely due to VMware's integration and a shift to subscription pricing models [1][35] - VMware's contribution to revenue is expected to continue growing, although the high-growth phase has likely plateaued [2][37] Operating Expenses - Core operating expenses for the quarter were $4.12 billion, up $346 million, primarily due to increased stock-based compensation [2][22] - Excluding stock-based compensation, core operating expenses decreased by $150 million, indicating ongoing efforts to control costs post-VMware acquisition [2][22] Debt Management - The total debt to LTM adjusted EBITDA ratio improved to 2.3, suggesting that the impact of the VMware acquisition on the company's debt profile is being effectively managed [3][26] Future Guidance - For Q4 FY2025, Broadcom anticipates revenue of approximately $17.4 billion, exceeding market expectations, with an adjusted EBITDA margin projected at 67% [3][18]

Group 1: Market Overview - The 2024 global semiconductor company rankings show significant changes, with NVIDIA rising to the top due to its strong performance in AI chips, while traditional giants like Infineon and STMicroelectronics fell out of the top ten [1][2] - The total semiconductor market revenue is projected to grow from $546.87 billion in 2023 to $683.37 billion in 2024, representing a 25% increase [2] Group 2: Company Performance - NVIDIA's revenue is expected to reach $107.475 billion in 2024, a 118.6% increase from $49.161 billion in 2023 [2] - Samsung Electronics is projected to generate $75.091 billion in revenue for 2024, up 69.2% from $44.374 billion in 2023 [2] - SK Hynix's revenue is expected to grow from $23.68 billion in 2023 to $47.248 billion in 2024, marking a significant increase [2] - Micron Technology's revenue is anticipated to rise from $16.642 billion in 2023 to $29.203 billion in 2024, a 75.5% increase [2] Group 3: Q1 Earnings Reports - NVIDIA forecasts Q1 revenue of $43 billion for 2026, exceeding market expectations [5] - Samsung's semiconductor division reported Q1 revenue of approximately $178 billion, a 9% year-over-year increase [5] - Broadcom's Q1 revenue reached $14.92 billion, a 25% increase year-over-year, driven by AI-related chip sales [5] - Intel's Q1 revenue was $12.667 billion, showing a slight decline of 0.4% [5] Group 4: Market Trends - The automotive chip market is expected to recover in the coming quarters, despite a slowdown in 2024 [14][15] - The demand for custom ASICs is on the rise, with Broadcom's AI chip revenue significantly contributing to its growth [16][17] - SK Hynix has overtaken Samsung in the DRAM market, marking a significant shift in market dynamics [11] Group 5: Future Projections - SK Hynix anticipates a 10-15% increase in DRAM bit shipments in Q2, while NAND bit shipments are expected to grow over 20% [18] - Samsung expects strong demand for AI servers in Q2, aiming to enhance its position in high-value markets [18] - Micron forecasts a record high revenue of $8.8 billion for the third fiscal quarter of 2025, driven by DRAM and NAND demand [19]

如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 来源：本文编译自techspot，谢谢。 多年来，我一直在撰写有关定制 ASIC 的文章。有一段时间，一些非芯片公司发展壮大，自行设 计芯片比购买商用芯片更有意义。一度，似乎"所有人"都在走这条路。我们发现有 100 多家公司 正在开发自己的芯片，产品涵盖智能手机、汽车和 Wi-Fi 接入路由器。话虽如此，技术发展总是 周期性的，我们现在可能正接近这个特定周期的顶峰。 我们认为，重要的是要记住，定制硅片是一种经济选择，而不是技术选择。 最后，我们认为定制硅片的行业发展尚未完全结束。大型人工智能公司（例如OpenAI，或许还有 Anthropic）可能会尝试一下。届时，全球汽车制造商也仍需就此做出决定。因此，我们尚未达到 定制硅片的巅峰，但我们正在接近它。 转向定制硅片的主要驱动力是过去20年来席卷半导体行业的整合浪潮。过去，每个芯片插槽都有 十几家供应商争夺业务，大客户可以根据自身需求，争夺某家供应商的路线图控制权。如今，该行 业的供应商数量已从2000家减少到接近200家，即使是最大的客户也开始失去这种谈判筹码。 这并不意味着公司应该急于进行自主设计，以节省几美元的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving relationship between Broadcom and its largest customer, Apple, particularly focusing on the potential impact of Apple switching to its own Wi-Fi chips, which could significantly affect Broadcom's revenue from this segment [2][5][8]. Group 1: Revenue Impact from Wi-Fi Chip Transition - Apple plans to replace Broadcom's Wi-Fi and Bluetooth chips with its internal Proxima chips in upcoming products, which could lead to a revenue loss for Broadcom estimated at $2.74 billion in 2025, decreasing to $3.24 billion by 2028 [7][8]. - The Wi-Fi chip segment currently contributes approximately 33.6% to Broadcom's revenue from Apple, but this is expected to drop to 4.3% in 2025 and further to 3.3% by 2028 [8][9]. - Broadcom's market share in the Wi-Fi chip market could decline from 24% to 12.5% if Apple transitions to its own chips, highlighting Broadcom's dependency on Apple for this revenue stream [9]. Group 2: RF Business Analysis - Broadcom supplies RF components to Apple, which accounted for about 65.2% of its revenue from Apple, with a previous agreement valued at $15 billion over three years [10][11]. - Despite the competitive landscape, Broadcom holds a significant position in the RF market, with a stable growth rate and a strong share of Apple's RF revenue, estimated at 32.7% [15][16]. - The RF business is crucial for Broadcom, and while it faces competition from Qualcomm and others, it has maintained a solid relationship with Apple, which is expected to continue in the near term [12][16]. Group 3: AI Chip Opportunities - Broadcom is collaborating with Apple on the Baltra AI chip, which is expected to be produced in 2026, potentially offsetting losses from the Wi-Fi chip transition [18][20]. - Apple's commitment to invest $50 billion over the next four years in AI infrastructure could create significant revenue opportunities for Broadcom, estimated at $12.53 billion annually from custom ASICs [21][22]. - The partnership with major tech companies like Google and Meta in the custom ASIC market positions Broadcom favorably to benefit from Apple's AI initiatives [19][22]. Group 4: Market Outlook and Valuation Concerns - Broadcom's optimistic market outlook, particularly in the custom accelerator space, has faced scrutiny as the company’s valuation has declined since reaching a $1 trillion market cap [24][29]. - The company’s revenue growth is projected to be strong, but there are concerns that the market's expectations for growth may be overly optimistic, particularly in light of competitive pressures from Nvidia and others [24][29]. - Broadcom's current market valuation appears high compared to its growth projections, suggesting potential downward pressure on its stock if growth does not meet expectations [28][29].