▲ 戳蓝 色字关注我们！ 垄断者最大的敌人不是竞争对手，而是时间。 —— 克莱顿·克里斯坦森 开场 一场精心编排的科技"变脸"大戏 2025年12月8日，美国东部时间下午，全球科技圈被一条消息炸开了锅。 美国总统特朗普在其自创的社交平台"真实社交"（Truth Social）上发文宣布： 批准英伟达向中国出口 H200人工智能芯片——但美国政府要从每笔销售中抽取25% 的分成。 这条消息的冲击力，不亚于在平静的湖面投下一颗深水炸弹。要知道，就在一周前，美国国会还在激烈讨论《SAFE法案》，试图全面禁止向中国出口高端AI芯 片。而现在，特朗普却突然来了个180度大转弯。 这就像是一个曾经把你拉黑、删好友、在朋友圈发誓"此生不再相见"的前任，突然给你发消息说："我们可以复合，但你得每个月给我上交四分之一的工资，而且 我只能给你用18个月前的旧款手机。" 荒诞吗？非常荒诞。但这就是当下美国科技政策的真实写照—— 在 "国家安全"的遮羞布下，赤裸裸地玩着利益算计的游戏。 更有意思的是，特朗普在声明中特意提到："我已经通知中方领导人这一决定， 中方对此表示积极回应 。"这个"积极回应"四个字，耐人寻味。是真的积极？还是 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic AI industry is experiencing significant growth, driven by strong policy support, technological advancements, and surging market demand, particularly highlighted by the performance of the domestic AI-focused ETF and its constituent stocks [1][4][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The domestic AI-focused ETF (589520) saw an intraday price increase of nearly 3%, currently up 1.81%, marking a three-day consecutive rise [1]. - Key constituent stocks such as Chipone Technology surged over 15%, while Cambricon and Yuke Tech rose by more than 4% and 3% respectively [1]. - The ETF's trading threshold was reduced from approximately 120 yuan to about 60 yuan following a 1:2 share split, making it more accessible for investors [5]. Group 2: Industry Trends - Major global tech companies, including Oracle, Microsoft, Google, and Meta, are significantly increasing their capital expenditures on AI infrastructure, indicating a robust demand for high-end chips and related hardware [3]. - The Chinese government's policies are strongly supporting the integration of AI across key sectors, with initiatives like the "Artificial Intelligence+" action plan aiming for deep integration by 2027 [4]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - Domestic companies are making rapid technological breakthroughs, with Huawei and Alibaba Cloud demonstrating advancements in large-scale computing capabilities [4]. - The processing capacity in China has dramatically increased, with daily token processing volume soaring from 100 billion to 30 trillion within a year and a half [4]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The ETF is positioned to benefit from the ongoing domestic AI industry growth, with a focus on companies that are well-placed in the AI supply chain [6][7]. - The ETF's top ten holdings account for over 71.66% of its weight, with semiconductors being the largest sector, representing over 54.1% [7].

Group 1 - The U.S. government has imposed export controls on NVIDIA's H20 chip, requiring licenses for sales to China, which indicates a significant tightening of trade regulations in the AI chip sector [2][6] - NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang visited China again, expressing a desire to continue collaboration, highlighting the impact of these export restrictions on the industry [1][2] - The restrictions on H20 and similar AI chips from AMD and Intel create a substantial opportunity for domestic Chinese AI chip manufacturers to capture market share previously held by NVIDIA [6][14] Group 2 - Huawei's Ascend 910C chip is currently the most prominent domestic alternative, with its latest generation products being integral to China's AI infrastructure [7][14] - The Ascend 910C chip achieves a computing power of 800 TFLOP/s (FP16) and a memory bandwidth of 3.2 TB/s, which is approximately 80% of NVIDIA's H100 performance [7][10] - Despite its advantages, the Ascend 910C faces challenges such as increased power consumption and potential interconnect bottlenecks, which could hinder its efficiency in large-scale AI training tasks [9][11] Group 3 - The production of the Ascend 910C chip relies heavily on TSMC for manufacturing, as domestic foundries like SMIC struggle with yield rates and production capacity [12][13] - The supply chain for critical components, such as HBM memory, is also a concern, as it involves complex logistics and potential legal issues [13][14] - A diverse ecosystem of domestic AI chip companies, including Alibaba, Baidu, and Tencent, is essential for reducing risks and ensuring stability in the AI chip market [14][15] Group 4 - Companies like Cambrian and Moore Threads are emerging as significant players in the AI chip market, with innovative designs and capabilities that can compete with NVIDIA's offerings [15][16] - The development of a unified software platform by Moore Threads aims to facilitate the transition for users from NVIDIA's CUDA to their own architecture, enhancing user experience and performance [16] - The collaboration among various domestic firms is crucial for building a resilient and self-sufficient AI chip ecosystem in China, moving away from reliance on uncertain supply chains [17]