近日，海军第47批护航编队包头舰在亚丁湾海域，展开一场多课目实战化攻防训练，随机嵌入多种特情，不断锤炼官兵在危局难局险局中思考应对之策，提 升编队作战能力。 对空中目标态势及其意图进行研判后，指挥员当机立断，指挥情电部门进行干扰。 伴随着几声沉闷的声响，3枚干扰弹瞬时腾空而起，在舰艇上方炸开，形成浓厚的烟幕屏障。 空中敌情刚刚解除，海面传来新的特情——"某方位发现'敌'海上目标！"包头舰迅速转入战斗航向，占领有利攻击阵位。备便主炮系统、装定发射诸元、推 送打击指令。 随着指挥员一声令下，一枚枚炮弹破膛而出，精准命中目标。 落日的余晖洒在亚丁湾，训练仍未结束。副炮对海打击、重机枪对海射击等课目接续展开，官兵们坚守在战位，在真打实抗中进一步锤炼胜战本领。 出航以来，护航和训练已经融为一体。他们利用任务间隙开展实弹射击、舰机协同、武力营救等实战化训练，编队的实战能力得到有效检验和提高。 ...

最近，乌克兰的能源设施接连遭到袭击，变电站被炸，输电线路也被切断。乌方本想依靠欧洲盟友提供更多能源修复设备，或者补充一些急需的前线弹药。 然而，就在这个关键时刻，捷克的选举结果给乌克兰带来了新的困扰。 这一选举结果对于乌克兰来说无疑是雪上加霜。由于能源设施遭到破坏，乌方急需组织人员修复变电站和输电线路，确保民众在冬季不至于冻着。同时，乌 克兰还得关注前线的战况，因战斗持续，前线对炮弹的需求日益增加。捷克之前牵头的炮弹供应计划，一直是乌克兰前线重要的弹药来源。 这次捷克选举的焦点，实际上就是"是否继续无条件支持乌克兰"。巴比什的胜利反映出他准确把握了捷克人民的心态。他在竞选中不断强调，捷克的经济还 没完全恢复，没有理由把钱花在国外，应该优先解决国内问题。这种观点吸引了34.7%的选民，而现任政府坚持无条件援乌的立场，支持率仅为23%。 尽管巴比什的党派还未达到绝对多数，但已成为最大党。如果与其他政党达成协议组阁，"停炮弹计划"有很大可能得以实施。捷克之前通过这个计划向乌克 兰提供了超过150万发炮弹，而一旦停止，乌克兰前线的弹药压力将进一步加剧，处境更加困难。 捷克的炮弹计划对乌克兰至关重要。自2024年2月起 ...

Core Insights - Russia's recent mobilization of 135,000 young recruits is a significant move amidst escalating tensions, particularly following the U.S. decision to allow Ukraine to use long-range missiles against Russian territory [1][11] - The situation indicates a complex geopolitical landscape where Russia is seeking support from China and North Korea to bolster its military capabilities and sustain its war efforts [4][6][11] Military Mobilization - The Kremlin's mobilization is not merely routine but reflects a response to heightened threats, particularly from U.S. military support to Ukraine [1][11] - Russia's current defense capabilities are insufficient to fully counter the combined pressure from the U.S. and Ukraine, leading to a search for new strategic partnerships [3][11] Strategic Partnerships - Russia is increasingly relying on China for logistical and financial support, including the opening of a new trade route that reduces transportation time and risks of Western interception [4][11] - The collaboration extends to military technology, with Russia willing to share critical defense technologies with China, indicating a deepening strategic alliance [4][11] North Korea's Role - North Korea's military support, including the provision of artillery and rockets, is crucial for Russia to alleviate ammunition shortages on the battlefield [6][11] - The partnership with North Korea complements Russia's strategy of leveraging its nuclear capabilities while relying on external support for conventional military needs [6][11] Geopolitical Implications - The ongoing conflict transcends the Russia-Ukraine war, impacting global strategic dynamics and China's energy security [13] - China faces the challenge of maintaining energy imports from Russia while navigating potential U.S. sanctions and the risk of being drawn into the conflict [10][11][13] Future Outlook - The evolving situation suggests a looming larger confrontation, with Russia counting on support from China and North Korea to endure current challenges while the U.S. aims to weaken Russia through support for Ukraine [11][13] - The balance of power and international order may be significantly affected by these developments, with long-lasting implications for global relations [13]

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "stronger than the market" investment rating for the defense and military industry [6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that artillery remains crucial in modern warfare, as demonstrated by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, where artillery has proven to be an effective long-range strike method [2][36]. - The global artillery market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.3%, increasing from a current market value of $11.4 billion to $17.3 billion by 2034 [2][39]. - The domestic artillery market in China is expected to thrive due to increased military training and export demands, with an estimated market size of approximately 12 billion yuan [3][49]. Summary by Sections 1. Artillery Classification and Composition - Artillery ammunition includes various types such as shells, grenades, and missiles, with artillery being referred to as the "god of war" due to its enduring significance [13]. - Shells are categorized based on caliber, assembly relationship, loading method, and stability method, with various types including small, medium, and large caliber shells [17][21]. 2. The Return of the "God of War" - The Russia-Ukraine war has highlighted the importance of artillery, with significant artillery usage reported, including the U.S. supplying over 1 million rounds to Ukraine [36][37]. - The report indicates that the global artillery market is driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in Europe, leading to increased procurement of advanced artillery systems [39][40]. 3. Domestic Related Enterprises - Key players in China's artillery production include the China Ordnance Industry Group and the China Ordnance Equipment Group, with various listed companies involved in ammunition production [50][52]. - The report identifies several companies such as Tianqin Equipment and Beihua Co., which are significant contributors to the artillery and ammunition market in China [3][50].

Group 1 - Recent military cooperation between North Korea and Russia has garnered global attention, with reports suggesting North Korea may supply up to 12 million artillery shells and potentially send 30,000 soldiers to the Ukrainian battlefield [1][10] - The historical relationship between North Korea and Russia dates back to the Cold War, where both nations collaborated against external threats, and their current partnership is a strategic choice to counter Western sanctions [1][10] - Russian military actions in Ukraine have intensified, with large-scale airstrikes targeting critical infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's combat capabilities [1][2] Group 2 - Russian military operations appear to be transitioning from a defensive posture to a full-scale offensive, aided by artillery support from North Korea [2] - In the eastern Donetsk region, Russian forces have captured key strategic points, significantly impacting Ukraine's defensive lines [3] - The U.S. has responded by pledging to provide Ukraine with Patriot missile defense systems through NATO, enhancing Ukraine's defensive capabilities and signaling a warning to Russia [5] Group 3 - Some U.S. hawks are proposing high tariffs on countries like China and India for purchasing Russian oil, viewing it as indirect support for Russia's military [6] - China and India have adopted different strategies in response to U.S. pressure, with China emphasizing normal energy trade with Russia and India continuing to import cheap Russian oil while exploring new defense cooperation [6][8] - China and India are gradually aligning their positions, with discussions on supply chain stability to mitigate external economic risks, potentially reducing the impact of U.S. tariffs [8] Group 4 - The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is occurring against the backdrop of NATO's eastward expansion, which Russia perceives as a direct threat to its national security [8][10] - The potential accession of Ukraine to NATO is viewed as a critical point that could exacerbate tensions, with Russia attributing the conflict to NATO's expansionist policies [8][10] - The complex interplay of Russian military advances, North Korean support, U.S. military aid, and tariff threats creates a multifaceted international situation [10]

Group 1 - The article discusses a strategic combination of military aid and economic sanctions, highlighting the arrival of 12 million artillery shells in Russia and the subsequent imposition of a 500% tariff by the U.S. [1][3] - The military aid from North Korea is significant, with 12 million 152mm artillery shells being delivered, which are compatible with the Russian military's existing systems [3][5] - The U.S. sanctions are aimed at cutting off funding sources for Russia, particularly targeting its allies, China and India, rather than directly attacking Russia [7][11] Group 2 - The economic relationship between China and Russia is crucial, with energy trade between the two countries amounting to $62.426 billion, which is vital for Russia's economy [11][14] - China imports 108 million tons of oil from Russia, accounting for 19% of its total imports, while India has a higher dependency at 36%, making it more vulnerable to sanctions [14][16] - The article emphasizes the strategic differences between China and India in response to U.S. sanctions, with China having diversified its energy imports, while India faces significant challenges due to its high dependency on Russian oil [26][28] Group 3 - The 50-day countdown set by Trump is strategically significant, coinciding with a critical period in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, where the effects of the artillery aid will be fully realized [30][33] - The effectiveness of sanctions is questioned, as history shows that over time, sanctioned countries adapt and create alternative networks, as seen with the growing cooperation between China and Russia [35][37] - The article concludes that the real contest lies in the endurance and strategic patience of the involved nations, rather than the immediate impact of sanctions [39][41]

Core Viewpoint - The attack on the chemical plant in Krasnozavodsk, Moscow region, is significant as it disrupts a critical supply chain for the Russian military, particularly in the production of explosives and ammunition components [1] Group 1: Attack Details - The chemical plant is specifically involved in the production of explosives, gunpowder, ammunition components, and missile weaponry [1] - This facility plays a key role in the supply chain for Russian artillery shells, multiple rocket launchers (РСЗВ), and ballistic missiles [1] Group 2: Response and Implications - As of now, there has been no response from the Russian side regarding the attack [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent escalation of military actions between Russia and Ukraine, highlighting drone attacks and airstrikes [2][5][6] - Ukrainian President Zelensky reported that Russia launched a large-scale attack involving over 500 drones and various missiles [3][8] - Ukrainian armed forces successfully intercepted many Russian drones, but some managed to breach defenses, causing casualties in Kyiv [9][7] Group 2 - The German government confirmed a phone call between Chancellor Merz and former President Trump, focusing on the situation in Ukraine and bilateral trade [11] - Discussions included enhancing Ukraine's air defense capabilities, with Germany expressing willingness to procure and transfer U.S. weapons to Ukraine [11][12] - NATO Secretary General emphasized the need for the U.S. to flexibly arrange military support for Ukraine amid reports of a halt in U.S. military aid [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant reduction in U.S. military supplies, particularly ammunition and components, to Ukraine, which Ukrainian officials believe is a tactic by the White House to compel political concessions from Ukraine [1]. Group 1: U.S. Military Aid to Ukraine - Ukrainian officials claim that the U.S. has nearly halted all supplies of ammunition and components, while U.S. officials deny this assertion [1]. - The weapons and ammunition currently on hold were allocated during the Biden administration, with no new military aid plans approved since Trump took office [1]. - Reports indicate that some weapons and ammunition, originally intended for Ukraine and stored in Poland, have also been stopped from delivery [1].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Kim Jong-un inspected a significant military industrial enterprise in North Korea, focusing on the production capabilities and modernization efforts for artillery shells by the first half of 2025 [1] Group 2 - Kim Jong-un visited various production sites within the enterprise, including the stamping workshop, rotary workshop, and assembly workshop, to gain insights into the production situation [1] - The inspection emphasized the expansion of production capacity and modernization renovations at the facility [1]