（来源：吴说） 据《金融时报》，伊朗国防出口中心（Mindex）表示，已在过去一年提出允许以加密货币作为支付方 式，向外国政府出售包括弹道导弹、无人机和军舰在内的先进武器系统，同时也接受以物易物和伊朗里 亚尔结算。Mindex 为伊朗负责海外军售的国有机构，称其与 35 个国家存在客户关系，并在官网列出多 类武器装备。该网站支持多语言，其网站真实性已通过存档版本、注册信息及技术基础设施审查核实。 ...

美国制造业的衰退已经影响到其军工领域，导致美军的装备制造远远落后于中国。甚至连美军所需的装 备都无法满足，这一趋势几乎不可逆转。一个国家的军事实力最终取决于其能否真正制造出所需的装 备，而非口号或预算数字。美国最近也开始承认这一点。 《纽约时报》曾以几乎叹息的语气指出美军想要的，美国造不出，这不仅仅是技术问题，而是长期以来 国家工业体系整体衰退的必然结果。很多人依然沉浸在美国军费世界第一的幻想中，但忽略了一个残酷 的现实：虽然钱还在，但制造能力已经不再。 美国的问题从来不是缺钱，而是造不动。美国军费历来丰厚，甚至是历史上最为慷慨的。但问题在于， 这些资金越来越像是在一个空心化的系统里转圈。研发周期被无限拉长，项目不断延期，成本不断膨 胀，装备性能却一再缩水。看似是管理失败，实质上是因为美国的工业基础已经无法满足现代战争日益 增长的需求。军舰建造速度缓慢，飞机造价越来越高，导弹库存无法补充，弹药生产周期长达数年。这 些问题并非出现在某个单一项目上，而是美国工业体系普遍衰退的结果。 制造业一旦出现断层，军工产业将首当其冲。所有军工强国的背后都有一个共同特点：那就是完整、密 集且可扩张的制造业体系。而美国的问题恰恰 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights a significant shift in military power dynamics between the US and China, suggesting that military capabilities may surpass economic metrics in importance [1][9] - The US military, despite its impressive budget of over $900 billion and a fleet of 11 nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, is facing a maintenance crisis, with many vessels being outdated and unable to operate effectively [3][5] - The US Navy currently has approximately 296 ships, but many are in disrepair, leading to a situation where only a few are operational, highlighting a systemic issue in military readiness [5][9] Group 2 - In contrast, China's military capabilities are rapidly advancing, with a systematic upgrade in its military infrastructure, including the upcoming commissioning of the Fujian aircraft carrier, which will enhance its naval capabilities significantly [5][7] - China's military strategy focuses on regional defense, particularly in the Western Pacific, allowing it to concentrate resources effectively and achieve local superiority [9] - The article emphasizes that while the US military faces recruitment challenges and operational inefficiencies, China benefits from a steady influx of high-quality talent into its military-industrial complex, which is crucial for sustained military development [9]

Group 1 - The European Union has taken a strong stance against China by issuing a statement regarding Taiwan and reducing the tax-free quota for steel, which has led to increased tariffs on excess amounts [3][4] - China responded to these actions by announcing export controls on rare earth-related technologies, effectively closing loopholes that could allow technology transfer to bypass China [3][4] - The situation highlights the critical role of China in the rare earth supply chain, particularly for military applications, indicating that Western countries may struggle to maintain their supply without Chinese resources [4] Group 2 - Europe is facing significant internal challenges, including tight government finances, high inflation, and a decline in manufacturing, prompting countries like Italy and Switzerland to seek cooperation with China [2] - The EU's aggressive economic stance towards China has not yielded the expected benefits and has instead exacerbated its fragile economic situation, leading to rising internal dissent [5] - The rapid exchange of actions between Europe and China within a 24-hour period underscores the urgency of addressing supply chain vulnerabilities and internal consensus in Europe [5]

Group 1 - South Korean President Lee Jae-myung's visit to the U.S. aims to discuss security, defense budgets, tariffs, and other issues with President Trump, indicating no limits on the topics of discussion [1][3] - The media suggests that both leaders share common ground, such as past assassination attempts and interests in golf, which may facilitate cooperation in addressing the "Chinese threat" in Northeast Asia [4] - South Korea's shipbuilding industry, which remains strong, is highlighted as a key area for potential collaboration, especially in light of the U.S. military's declining shipbuilding capabilities [4][10] Group 2 - The U.S. Navy's shipbuilding efficiency is significantly lagging behind China's, raising concerns about America's maritime dominance [6][10] - Recent incidents, such as a U.S. Navy ship catching fire in Japan, underscore the challenges faced by the U.S. military in maintaining and deploying its fleet [8] - The decline of the U.S. shipbuilding industry has been a long-term trend, exacerbated by deindustrialization since the 1980s, leading to a lack of skilled labor and operational inefficiencies [8][10] Group 3 - Previous attempts by both Trump and Biden to engage South Korea in ship production and maintenance have not resulted in agreements, but there are suggestions for broader collaboration, including supply chain restructuring and workforce training [12] - The notion that South Korea could play a critical role in U.S.-China tensions reflects a sense of desperation within the U.S. regarding its strategic position [14]

Group 1 - The U.S. has deployed a naval fleet with 4,000 soldiers near Venezuela, indicating a military buildup aimed at combating drug trafficking in Latin America [1][2] - Venezuela's President Maduro has condemned the U.S. actions as an invasion attempt and announced plans to mobilize over 4 million militia members in response [3][5] - The Venezuelan government claims that U.S. accusations of drug trafficking are unfounded and part of a broader strategy to undermine the country's sovereignty [6][8] Group 2 - Multiple Latin American countries have expressed strong opposition to the U.S. military presence in the Caribbean, viewing it as a threat to regional stability [12][14] - Colombian President Petro warned that U.S. intervention could lead to chaos in Venezuela and potentially drag Colombia into conflict [14] - Brazil and Mexico have also criticized U.S. actions, emphasizing the need for cooperation rather than unilateral intervention to address issues like drug trafficking [16][17]

Group 1 - The Philippines is repositioning the historic Subic Bay shipyard as a key pillar for its defense industry and U.S. Navy expansion plans amid rising U.S.-China tensions [1][2] - The shipyard, now under U.S. private equity firm Cerberus Capital, aims to support U.S. naval shipbuilding and has attracted investments from South Korean company HD Hyundai Heavy Industries, which plans to invest $550 million to start operations next year [1][2] - The Philippine government is leveraging its labor resources and South Korean technology to enhance its shipbuilding competitiveness, with the goal of countering China's industrial advantages in the sector [2][3] Group 2 - The Subic Bay shipyard's future is linked to the "Luzon Economic Corridor" initiative, which is expected to inject approximately $100 billion into the Philippine economy [2] - The shipyard's new management aims to expand into container shipping, bulk carriers, LNG, and oil tanker sectors, striving to surpass the achievements of the previous operator, Hanjin Heavy Industries [2] - The entry of Hyundai Heavy Industries is expected to create jobs and income, aligning with the Luzon Economic Corridor initiative and helping the U.S. narrow the gap with China's expanding naval fleet [3]

Group 1: Military Industry Insights - The military industry is experiencing accelerated domestic prosperity and an opening international market, with a historical win rate of 70%-80% in July-August over the past decade [1][2] - The current military industry is at a critical juncture with the transition of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the preparation for the "15th Five-Year Plan," which is expected to release pent-up downstream demand significantly [3][4] - Major events such as military parades serve as important catalysts for the military sector, with historical data showing substantial returns leading up to such events [4] Group 2: Global Military Spending Trends - Global military spending is on the rise, with Japan planning to invest 43 trillion yen (approximately 290 billion USD) from FY2023 to FY2027, marking a 63.5% increase compared to previous years [9] - South Korea's defense budget is set to increase to 80 trillion won (approximately 60 billion USD) by 2028, reflecting a 7% annual growth rate [9] - The European Union is mobilizing 800 billion euros for defense investments, while the U.S. defense budget is projected to exceed 1 trillion USD for the first time in FY2026 [9] Group 3: Technology Sector Analysis - The AI technology sector is currently positioned low in terms of market valuation, with potential for further recovery and expansion [12][18] - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector has shown signs of recovery, becoming a prominent market driver [12] - Significant profit upgrades have been observed in various AI sub-sectors, particularly in upstream computing power and downstream applications such as financial technology and drones [18][19]

Group 1 - The Japan-U.S. ministerial negotiations on tariffs have been ongoing for five rounds without reaching an agreement, with the sixth round scheduled to take place in Washington [1] - Japan's government has proposed a comprehensive plan to address China in an effort to appease the U.S. during negotiations [1][2] - Japan's Economic Revitalization Minister Akizawa stated that discussions have made further progress but no consensus has been found, indicating a lack of significant outcomes from the latest round of talks [1][2] Group 2 - The trade negotiations between Japan and the U.S. are complicated by significant differences in their objectives, with Japan seeking the removal of "reciprocal tariffs" while the U.S. insists on maintaining a 10% baseline tariff [2] - Japanese companies are projected to incur a total profit loss of approximately 2.6 trillion yen (around 179 billion) by the fiscal year 2025 due to U.S. tariffs, with the automotive sector being the most affected [2] - Japan's strategy includes offering to purchase U.S. liquefied natural gas, corn, and other products, as well as collaborating on semiconductor supply chains, in hopes of gaining concessions from the U.S. on tariff issues [3] Group 3 - Internal conflicts among U.S. officials have led to inefficiencies in the negotiation process, with disagreements causing confusion for the Japanese delegation regarding U.S. negotiation goals [4] - The Chinese government has expressed its stance on the negotiations, emphasizing that cooperation between nations should not harm third-party interests and advocating for fairness in tariff discussions [5]

Core Viewpoint - The South Korean economy should view the U.S. government's shipbuilding industry revitalization plan as an opportunity for its own shipbuilding sector, suggesting the selection of specific business areas for collaboration, such as LNG ships, commercial ships, naval ship MRO (maintenance, repair, and overhaul), and next-generation vessel cooperation [2] Group 1: U.S. Shipbuilding Policy - The U.S. Shipbuilding Act (SHIPS for America Act) mandates an increase in the U.S. national strategic merchant fleet to 250 vessels, with 15% of U.S. LNG exports to be transported by U.S.-built ships by 2047 [2] - The U.S. Navy plans to build 364 new ships over the next 30 years, driven by the retirement of existing vessels and new construction programs [2] - By 2037, U.S. ship orders in commercial, LNG, and naval sectors are projected to reach between 403 and 448 vessels due to the U.S. government's shipbuilding revitalization policies [2] Group 2: Strategic Recommendations for South Korea - In the LNG ship sector, South Korea should prepare for localization as U.S. LNG exports increase, while also developing public-private partnerships to expand orders for medium-sized vessels [2] - For U.S. Navy ship MRO, South Korea should start with hull repair tasks to build trust before expanding into more complex projects, eventually aiming to participate in weapon system maintenance [3] - In the new naval vessel sector, South Korea should focus on transport and support ships, enhancing its military vessel capabilities for potential overseas exports [3] Group 3: Collaborative Efforts and Market Entry - South Korea and the U.S. should negotiate on improving production efficiency in U.S. shipyards and the restructuring of land and infrastructure acquired by South Korean firms [3] - To facilitate South Korean shipbuilders' entry into the U.S. market, it may be beneficial to relax restrictions on the export of shipbuilding technology, excluding core technologies [3] - A strategic approach to ensure labor force and supply chain stability is essential for South Korea's operations in the U.S. market, alongside ongoing discussions to maintain consistency in U.S. aid policies [4]