Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a current price of 34.65 yuan [5]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with total revenue of 2.531 billion yuan and a net profit of 715 million yuan, representing year-on-year decreases of 20.07% and 24.63% respectively [1]. - The high-end liquor segment saw a substantial drop in revenue, contributing to a shift in product structure, with high-end liquor accounting for 94.13% of total revenue in Q2 2025, down from previous periods [1]. - The company is expected to recover in the medium to long term as market conditions improve, with projected net profits of 1.044 billion yuan, 1.193 billion yuan, and 1.420 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2]. Financial Summary - For the first half of 2025, the gross margin was 73.07%, down 2.78 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin dropped to 14.51%, a decrease of 11.18 percentage points [2]. - The company’s sales and management expense ratios were 14.09% and 7.37% respectively for the first half of 2025, indicating a strategic adjustment in marketing expenses [2]. - Forecasts for revenue and net profit show a decline in 2025, with expected revenues of 4.691 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.044 billion yuan, followed by a recovery in subsequent years [4][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Neutral" [6][4][19] Core Views - In Q2 2025, the company experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit, reflecting demand pressure, with total revenue of 2.531 billion yuan, down 20.1% year-on-year, and net profit of 715 million yuan, down 24.6% year-on-year [1][4] - The product structure faced pressure, particularly in high-end liquor, which saw a revenue drop of 49.6% year-on-year in Q2 2025, while low-end liquor showed a slight increase of 7.5% [2][4] - The company is actively supporting its distribution channels to alleviate pressure, with a net increase of 25 distributors in both provincial and non-provincial markets by the end of Q2 2025 [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 2.531 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 715 million yuan, down 24.6% year-on-year [1] - Q2 2025 saw total revenue of 721 million yuan, a decline of 48.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 105 million yuan, down 70.9% year-on-year [1][4] Product and Market Analysis - High-end liquor revenue in Q2 2025 was 657 million yuan, down 49.6% year-on-year, while low-end liquor revenue was 29 million yuan, up 7.5% [2] - The provincial market in Anhui saw a revenue decline of 54.0% year-on-year, while non-provincial revenue decreased by 18.6% [2] Cost and Profitability - The overall gross margin in Q2 2025 decreased by 9.86 percentage points year-on-year, with tax and management expense ratios increasing due to fixed costs amid declining revenue [3] - The company reduced promotional activities, leading to a sales expense ratio decrease of 0.59 percentage points year-on-year [3] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025, anticipating a gradual recovery in provincial market demand in the second half of the year [4][11] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 4.914 billion yuan, 5.077 billion yuan, and 5.378 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 1.266 billion yuan, 1.315 billion yuan, and 1.409 billion yuan [4][11]

口子窖（603198.SH）2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 基本盘稳固 静待改革红利释放 2025 年 04 月 30 日 ➢ 事件：公司发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报，24 年全年公司实现营收/ 归母净利润 60.15/16.55 亿元，同比+0.89%/-3.83%；经计算，24Q4 实现营收 /归母净利润 16.53/3.45 亿元，同比+9.02%/-7.55%；25Q1 实现营收/归母净 利润 18.10/6.10 亿元，同比+2.42%/+3.59%。 ➢ 兼系列省内外招商汇量，省内精耕细作、省外聚焦核心市场。分产品看：酒 类主营 58.76 亿元，同比+0.46%，量增+2.76%，价增-2.24%。毛利率 74.33%， 同比-0.59pcts。其中：①高档白酒(年份系列/兼系列/小池窖等)24 年实现营收 56.81 亿元，同比+0.06%，量增+5.37%，价增-5.04%，吨价下移或系兼系列推 广期费用投放直接抵减收入所致。毛利率-0.22pcts 至 75.65%，在酒类主营业 务中占比-0.39pcts 至 96.69%。25Q1 高档白酒 17.28 亿元 ...