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PP春节假期持仓报告:L-PP价差回落
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-02-12 11:08
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The improvement of the PP supply - demand pattern is limited, but there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter the involution. The upstream petrochemical inventory is low, and the basis has been repaired. Due to the long Spring Festival holiday, the risk of unilateral positions is high, so it is recommended to hold no unilateral positions during the holiday. It is advisable to hold a light - position short position on the L - PP spread as plastic has new production capacity put into operation recently, its operating rate is higher than that of PP, and the centralized demand for mulch film has not started yet [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - As of the week of February 6, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 49.84% week - on - week, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring, decreased by 5.30 percentage points to 36.74% week - on - week, and the plastic weaving orders continued to decline, slightly lower than the same period last year. On February 12, there were little changes in the maintenance devices, the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 82.5%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of the standard drawstring decreased to around 28%. Petrochemical destocking in February was okay, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. The cost of crude oil rebounded due to market concerns about a potential military conflict between the US and Iran. The number of maintenance devices decreased slightly recently. The price of BOPP film in some downstream areas was stable, the operating rate of the downstream plastic weaving industry decreased, new orders were limited, and more terminal enterprises stopped work for the Spring Festival holiday, with downstream stocking mostly completed [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1 Futures - The PP2605 contract opened higher, then decreased in positions and oscillated downward. The lowest price was 6648 yuan/ton, the highest was 6730 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6648 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.73%. The position volume decreased by 7495 lots to 479342 lots [2] 3.2.2 Spot - The spot prices of PP in most regions were stable. The drawstring was quoted at 6340 - 6880 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On February 12, there were little changes in the maintenance devices, the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 82.5%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of the standard drawstring decreased to around 28% [4] - Demand: As of the week of February 6, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 49.84% week - on - week, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring, decreased by 5.30 percentage points to 36.74% week - on - week, and the plastic weaving orders continued to decline, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - Inventory: On Thursday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 440,000 tons week - on - week, 25,000 tons lower than the same lunar period last year. Petrochemical destocking was okay, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4] - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil contract 04 rose above $69 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $5 per ton to $830 per ton week - on - week [4]
【冠通期货研究报告】PP日报:高开后震荡运行-20260210
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-02-10 12:13
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The PP supply-demand pattern has limited improvement, but there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter the involution. With low upstream petrochemical inventory and the current basis being repaired, it is expected that PP will fluctuate within a range. Due to the new production capacity of plastics being put into operation recently and the start-up rate being higher than that of PP, coupled with the fact that the centralized demand for mulch film has not yet started, it is expected that the L-PP spread will decline [1]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - As of the week of February 6, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 49.84% week-on-week, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The operating rate of the downstream plastic weaving of the main drawstring decreased by 5.30 percentage points to 36.74% week-on-week, and the plastic weaving orders continued to decline week-on-week, slightly lower than the same period last year. On February 10, the overhaul devices such as the first line of Zhongjing Petrochemical Phase II restarted, and the PP enterprise operating rate rose to about 81.5%, at a neutral to low level, and the production ratio of the standard drawstring increased to about 29.5%. Petrochemical destocking in February was acceptable, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a low level in the same period in recent years. On the cost side, the US and Iran will hold a new round of negotiations, but the US warned that ships flying the US flag should stay as far away from Iranian waters as possible when sailing in the Strait of Hormuz, and the market is worried about a military conflict between the two sides, so the crude oil price rebounded. There has been a slight decrease in overhaul devices recently. The prices of downstream BOPP films in some areas are stable, the operating rate of downstream plastic weaving has decreased, and its new orders are limited. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the number of terminal shutdowns for holidays has further increased, and most downstream stocking has been completed [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The PP2605 contract opened higher and then oscillated with a reduction in positions. The lowest price was 6,627 yuan/ton, the highest price was 6,691 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6,688 yuan/ton, above the 20-day moving average, with a gain of 0.44%. The trading volume decreased by 1,773 lots to 488,568 lots [2]. - Spot: The spot prices of PP in various regions have partially declined. The drawstring is reported at 6,310 - 6,850 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On February 10, the overhaul devices such as the first line of Zhongjing Petrochemical Phase II restarted, and the PP enterprise operating rate rose to about 81.5%, at a neutral to low level, and the production ratio of the standard drawstring increased to about 29.5% [4]. - Demand: As of the week of February 6, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 49.84% week-on-week, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The operating rate of the downstream plastic weaving of the main drawstring decreased by 5.30 percentage points to 36.74% week-on-week, and the plastic weaving orders continued to decline week-on-week, slightly lower than the same period last year [4]. - Inventory: The early petrochemical inventory on Tuesday decreased by 40,000 tons to 460,000 tons week-on-week, 35,000 tons lower than the same lunar period last year. Petrochemical destocking is acceptable, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a low level in the same period in recent years [4]. Raw Material End - Brent crude oil contract 04 rose to $69 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $825 per ton week-on-week [6].
PP日报:震荡运行-20260206
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-02-06 09:59
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - As of the week of February 6, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 49.84% week-on-week, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The operating rate of the downstream plastic weaving of the main拉丝 decreased by 5.30 percentage points to 36.74% week-on-week, and the plastic weaving orders continued to decline week-on-week, slightly lower than the same period last year. On February 6, there was little change in the maintenance devices, the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 80%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of the standard product拉丝 decreased to around 26.5%. At the end of January, the petrochemical inventory was depleted quickly, and currently the petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. The geopolitical situation in Iran is volatile, the United States has reduced the tariffs imposed on India, and Indian refineries may increase the procurement of crude oil from the Middle East and the Americas, leading to a rebound in crude oil prices. Recently, the number of maintenance devices has slightly decreased. The price of the downstream BOPP film continued to rebound, the operating rate of the downstream plastic weaving decreased, and its new orders were limited. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, more terminal factories are on holiday, and the downstream stocking is mostly completed. The improvement of the PP supply-demand pattern is limited, the spot price followed up limitedly at the end of January, but there is still an expectation of anti-involution in the chemical industry, and the upstream petrochemical inventory is low. Currently, the basis has been repaired. It is expected that PP will fluctuate within a range. Since there is new production capacity put into operation for plastics recently, the operating rate is higher than that of PP, and the concentrated demand for mulch films has not started yet. It is expected that the L-PP spread will decline. The market fluctuates greatly, so pay attention to risk control [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week of February 6, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 49.84% week-on-week, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The operating rate of the downstream plastic weaving of the main拉丝 decreased by 5.30 percentage points to 36.74% week-on-week, and the plastic weaving orders continued to decline week-on-week, slightly lower than the same period last year. On February 6, there was little change in the maintenance devices, the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 80%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of the standard product拉丝 decreased to around 26.5%. At the end of January, the petrochemical inventory was depleted quickly, and currently the petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. The geopolitical situation in Iran is volatile, the United States has reduced the tariffs imposed on India, and Indian refineries may increase the procurement of crude oil from the Middle East and the Americas, leading to a rebound in crude oil prices. Recently, the number of maintenance devices has slightly decreased. The price of the downstream BOPP film continued to rebound, the operating rate of the downstream plastic weaving decreased, and its new orders were limited. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, more terminal factories are on holiday, and the downstream stocking is mostly completed. The improvement of the PP supply-demand pattern is limited, the spot price followed up limitedly at the end of January, but there is still an expectation of anti-involution in the chemical industry, and the upstream petrochemical inventory is low. Currently, the basis has been repaired. It is expected that PP will fluctuate within a range. Since there is new production capacity put into operation for plastics recently, the operating rate is higher than that of PP, and the concentrated demand for mulch films has not started yet. It is expected that the L-PP spread will decline. The market fluctuates greatly, so pay attention to risk control [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2605 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 6,607 yuan/ton, the highest price was 6,708 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6,691 yuan/ton, above the 20-day moving average, with a decline of 0.48%. The position volume decreased by 14,114 lots to 483,821 lots [2] - Spot: The spot prices of PP in most regions declined. The price of拉丝 was reported at 6,310 - 6,830 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On February 6, there was little change in the maintenance devices, the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 80%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of the standard product拉丝 decreased to around 26.5% [4] - Demand: As of the week of February 6, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 49.84% week-on-week, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The operating rate of the downstream plastic weaving of the main拉丝 decreased by 5.30 percentage points to 36.74% week-on-week, and the plastic weaving orders continued to decline week-on-week, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - Inventory: The petrochemical early inventory on Friday increased by 0.5 million tons to 42.5 million tons week-on-week, 8 million tons lower than the same lunar period last year. At the end of January, the petrochemical inventory was depleted quickly, and currently the petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4] Raw Material End - Brent crude oil contract 04 rose above $68 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $825 per ton week-on-week [5]
PP日报:震荡下行-20260205
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-02-05 11:03
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The PP supply - demand pattern has limited improvement, with limited spot follow - up at the end of January. However, there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter the involution, and the upstream petrochemical inventory is low. The basis has been repaired, and it is expected that PP will fluctuate within a range. Since there is new production capacity of plastics put into operation recently, and the start - up rate of plastics is higher than that of PP, and the concentrated demand for plastic film has not started yet, it is expected that the L - PP price difference will decline [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - As of the week of January 30, the downstream start - up rate of PP decreased by 0.79 percentage points to 52.08% week - on - week, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. Among them, the start - up rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, remained flat at 42.04% week - on - week, but plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly week - on - week, slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On February 5, there were few changes in the maintenance devices. The PP enterprise start - up rate remained at around 80%, at a neutral - low level. The production ratio of standard drawstring decreased to around 27.5%. At the end of January, petrochemical inventory was depleted quickly, and currently petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - On the cost side, the geopolitical situation in Iran has been volatile. The US has reduced tariffs imposed on India. Indian refineries may increase crude oil purchases from the Middle East and the Americas, leading to a rebound in crude oil prices. Recently, the number of maintenance devices has slightly decreased. The price of downstream BOPP film continued to rebound. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the start - up rate of downstream plastic weaving is stable, but its new orders are limited [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The PP2605 contract decreased in a volatile manner with a reduction in positions. The lowest price was 6658 yuan/ton, the highest price was 6788 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6676 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.48%. The open interest decreased by 23108 lots to 497935 lots [2] Spot - Most of the PP spot prices in various regions declined. The drawstring was quoted at 6340 - 6880 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking Supply - On February 5, there were few changes in the maintenance devices. The PP enterprise start - up rate remained at around 80%, at a neutral - low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring decreased to around 27.5% [4] Demand - As of the week of January 30, the downstream start - up rate of PP decreased by 0.79 percentage points to 52.08% week - on - week, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. Among them, the start - up rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, remained flat at 42.04% week - on - week, but plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly week - on - week, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] Inventory - On Thursday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 6.5 tons week - on - week to 42 tons, 10.5 tons lower than the same lunar period last year. At the end of January, petrochemical inventory was depleted quickly, and currently petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4] 3.4 Raw Material End - The Brent crude oil contract 04 rose above $68 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat week - on - week at $825 per ton [5]
PP日报:震荡上行-20260204
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-02-04 11:25
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of PP has limited improvement, and the spot price followed up limited at the end of January. However, there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter the involution, the upstream petrochemical inventory is low, the basis has been repaired, and the sentiment of bulk commodities has improved. It is expected that PP will fluctuate within a range. Due to the new production capacity of plastics being put into operation recently and the concentrated demand for plastic film not yet starting, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1行情分析 - As of the week of January 30th, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 0.79 percentage points to 52.08% week - on - week, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, remained flat at 42.04% week - on - week, but plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly week - on - week, slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On February 4th, there were few changes in the maintenance devices, the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 80%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring increased to around 29.5%. At the end of January, petrochemical inventory was reduced rapidly, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - On the cost side, the geopolitical situation in Iran is volatile, the US has reduced tariffs on India, and Indian refineries may increase crude oil purchases from the Middle East and the Americas, leading to a rebound in crude oil prices. Recently, the number of maintenance devices has slightly decreased. The price of downstream BOPP film continued to rebound. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the operating rate of downstream plastic weaving is stable, but its new orders are limited [1] 3.2期现行情 3.2.1期货方面 - The PP2605 contract increased in position and fluctuated upwards. The lowest price was 6727 yuan/ton, the highest price was 6824 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6801 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.15%. The position increased by 11,151 lots to 521,043 lots [2] 3.2.2现货方面 - The spot prices of PP in various regions were mostly stable. The drawstring was reported at 6340 - 6880 yuan/ton [3] 3.3基本面跟踪 - On the supply side, on February 4th, there were few changes in the maintenance devices, the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 80%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring increased to around 29.5% [4] - On the demand side, as of the week of January 30th, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 0.79 percentage points to 52.08% week - on - week, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, remained flat at 42.04% week - on - week, but plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly week - on - week, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - On Wednesday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 0.5 million tons to 50 million tons week - on - week, 6 million tons lower than the same lunar period last year. At the end of January, petrochemical inventory was reduced rapidly, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4] 3.4原料端原油 - The Brent crude oil 04 contract rose to 67 US dollars/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at 825 US dollars/ton week - on - week [5]
PP日报:震荡运行-20260203
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-02-03 11:10
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The PP market is expected to oscillate within a range before the Spring Festival. The supply - demand pattern improvement is limited, spot follow - up is limited, and the basis weakens. There are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter the involution, and the upstream petrochemical inventory is low. Due to the new production capacity of plastics and the unopened concentrated demand for mulch films, the L - PP spread is expected to decline. [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [行情分析] - As of the week of January 30th, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 0.79 percentage points to 52.08% week - on - week, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, remained flat at 42.04% week - on - week, but the plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly week - on - week, slightly lower than the same period last year. [1] - On February 3rd, some overhauled devices such as the second line of Maoming Petrochemical restarted, and the PP enterprise operating rate rose to around 80%, at a slightly lower - than - neutral level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring remained at around 29%. Petrochemical inventory is currently at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. [1] - The geopolitical situation cooled down, the cold wave weakened, and crude oil prices dropped significantly. Recently, the number of overhauled devices decreased slightly. The price of downstream BOPP film continued to rebound. The operating rate of downstream plastic weaving was stable approaching the Spring Festival holiday, but new orders were limited. [1] [期现行情] - **Futures**: The PP2605 contract increased positions and oscillated. The lowest price was 6,681 yuan/ton, the highest was 6,771 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6,730 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.65%. The position increased by 229 lots to 509,892 lots. [2] - **Spot**: The spot prices of PP in most regions declined. The drawstring was quoted at 6,340 - 6,880 yuan/ton. [3] [基本面跟踪] - **Supply**: On February 3rd, some overhauled devices such as the second line of Maoming Petrochemical restarted, and the PP enterprise operating rate rose to around 80%, at a slightly lower - than - neutral level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring remained at around 29%. [4] - **Demand**: As of the week of January 30th, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 0.79 percentage points to 52.08% week - on - week, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, remained flat at 42.04% week - on - week, but the plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly week - on - week, slightly lower than the same period last year. [4] - **Inventory**: On Tuesday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 95,000 tons to 505,000 tons week - on - week, 75,000 tons lower than the same lunar period last year. At the end of January, petrochemical destocking was fast, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. [4] [原料端原油] - The Brent crude oil 04 contract dropped to 66 US dollars per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at 825 US dollars per ton week - on - week. [5]