Core Insights - China's open-source ecosystem has rapidly developed, with over 2.2 million active open-source developers in 2024, leading globally [1] - The open-source model is reshaping the AI competitive landscape, providing cost-effective access to top AI capabilities for SMEs and benefiting cloud service providers and domestic chip manufacturers [3] Group 1: Open-source Development in China - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) highlights that open-source has significantly driven technological breakthroughs and high-quality development [1] - Major cities like Beijing and Shanghai lead in active open-source projects and developers, while cities like Guangzhou and Chengdu are emerging as new forces in the ecosystem [1] - The open-source ecosystem in China is characterized by a stable top tier, an ascending mid-tier, and a catching-up lower tier, indicating a broadening of innovation resources across more cities [1] Group 2: Impact of Large Models on Software Development - The rise of large models has sparked a new wave of AI innovation, enhancing intelligent capabilities and broadening application scenarios [2] - The UBML community is transitioning from low-code to intelligent development, focusing on semantic modeling, multi-agent collaboration tools, and open datasets [2] - This transformation aims to improve software development models and enhance the core competitiveness of China's software industry [2] Group 3: Government Initiatives and Support - Beijing's information software industry achieved a revenue of 3.3 trillion yuan in 2024, accounting for a quarter of the national total [4] - The government plans to optimize open-source public services, cultivate talent, and establish evaluation and incentive mechanisms based on open-source contributions [4] - MIIT will accelerate the construction of the open-source system, encouraging deep integration of government, industry, academia, research, and finance [5]

Core Insights - The "2025 Open Atom Open Source Ecology Conference" marked the release of the "China Open Source Development Deep Report (2024)", reflecting breakthroughs in China's open source development in 2024 and the transition trajectory from 2022 to 2024 [1] - China leads globally in the number of active open source developers, reaching 2.2729 million in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22.95%, with an average growth rate of 31.58% over the past two years [1][3] Group 1: Global Open Source Contributions - The global open source contribution volume surpassed 700 million for the first time in 2024, with the top three contributors being the United States (89.5645 million), India (54.8372 million), and China (50.3361 million), accounting for 39.78% of the total contributions from the top 30 countries and regions [2] - There is a slight downward trend in the contribution share of these three countries over the past three years, indicating a shift from concentrated contributions to a more diversified global open source innovation landscape [2] Group 2: Active Developer Growth - The number of active open source developers globally is steadily increasing, with China and India emerging as key growth engines, contributing to the evolution of the global talent structure [3] - China's share of active open source developers among the top 30 countries rose from 15.13% in 2022 to 18.29% in 2024, while India, the EU, and the US ranked second to fourth in active developer numbers [3] Group 3: Open Source Ecosystem in China - The open source ecosystem in China is characterized by a solid "head" of major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou, with emerging "waist" cities like Guangzhou and Chengdu showing strong growth [3] - Over 100 organizations, including major companies and institutions, are leading the open source trend, with more than 150 typical application cases across various critical sectors [4] Group 4: Open Source Projects and Applications - The open source HarmonyOS has been deployed in over 1.19 billion devices across multiple sectors, including finance, education, and healthcare, showcasing its practical value [5] - Other open source projects like OpenEuler and openKylin have also achieved significant deployment numbers, with openKylin exceeding 24 million installations [6] Group 5: Open Source Talent Development - Open source education is identified as a key pathway for cultivating talent in the open source ecosystem, with recommendations for policy support, enhanced teaching capabilities, and deeper collaboration between academia and industry [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [12]. Core Insights - The operating system (OS) serves as a critical foundational software that connects hardware and various software applications, and it is poised for growth in the era of edge computing [4][6]. - The domestic operating system market is expected to expand significantly due to the trend of domestic substitution and the promotion of the "Xinchuang" initiative, which is driving high growth in PC and server shipments [8][10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading domestic operating system companies that possess ecological advantages [10]. Summary by Sections Operating System: Key Core Software - The operating system is essential for managing computer resources and ensuring stable operation, with various types tailored to different user environments and functionalities [19][21]. Global Market: Dominance of First-Mover Firms - The global operating system market is projected to reach approximately $57.25 billion in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 7% expected to reach $96.3 billion by 2033 [26][29]. - Major players like Microsoft and Apple dominate the PC operating system market, holding about 86.7% of the market share [30]. Era of Opportunity: Hardware Development Driving OS Updates - The transition to edge computing presents new opportunities for domestic operating systems, which can leverage open-source collaboration to accelerate ecosystem development [7][36]. Domestic Substitution: Vast Market for Domestic Operating Systems - The domestic operating system market is expanding as the country aims to build an independent and secure operating system ecosystem, with significant growth potential as the Xinchuang initiative progresses [8][64]. Security Autonomy: Necessity for OS Localization - The report highlights the critical need for an independent operating system ecosystem to enhance national security and reduce reliance on foreign technology [56][59]. Domestic Manufacturers Overview: Flourishing Domestic OS Landscape - Several domestic operating system companies have emerged, with leading firms like Kylin Software and UnionTech Software making significant strides in the market [9][10]. Investment Recommendations: Focus on Domestic OS Industry Chain - The report suggests monitoring the domestic operating system industry chain, particularly companies with strong ecological advantages, as the market is expected to grow significantly by 2025 [10][64].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **信创 (Xinchuang) industry**, which is focused on domestic technology development and innovation in response to international trade tensions and tariffs [2][4][6]. Key Points and Arguments - **Impact of Tariffs on the Computer Industry**: The computer industry is characterized by high elasticity, with a recent drop of approximately 13%. Tariffs have a limited impact, as overseas revenue constitutes about 10% of the sector, with only 5% affected by U.S. tariffs [2][6]. - **Growth in Xinchuang Industry**: The Xinchuang industry is experiencing a peak in construction due to fiscal stimulus and a clear quantitative target set for 2027. The demand is high, as indicated by procurement data from Guangdong Province [2][4]. - **Domestic Supply and Demand**: There is robust demand and supply in the Xinchuang sector, with rapid technological advancements among companies. Fiscal support is enhancing industry sentiment [7][10]. - **U.S. Trade Policies**: The U.S. has expanded its entity list, impacting Chinese semiconductor development and prompting companies to adjust supply chains. This has accelerated domestic innovation and technology upgrades [8][9]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors should focus on the entire Xinchuang sector, analyzing company performance and market sentiment while considering lessons from previous trade disputes [7][26]. Notable Companies in Xinchuang - Key companies to watch include **EDA**, **华大九天 (Huada Jiutian)**, **达梦 (Dameng)**, **中软 (Zhongruan)**, and **软通 (Ruantong)**. EDA is particularly significant due to its critical role in the industry [5][26]. Market Dynamics - **Procurement Trends**: Guangdong Province's commercial PC procurement from January to March 2025 has already surpassed the total for the previous year, indicating strong market growth [14][15]. - **Operating Systems**: The primary operating systems in the Xinchuang sector include **麒麟 (Kylin)** and **统信 (Tongxin)**, which dominate in government and financial sectors [18]. - **Database and CPU Developments**: **达梦 (Dameng)** is a key player in the database market, while **龙芯 (Loongson)** is notable in the CPU space, with products achieving competitive performance levels [19][20]. Future Projections - **PC and Server Sales**: Projections indicate that online PC sales in the government sector will reach 950,000 units by 2025, with significant growth expected in subsequent years [24]. - **Government Support**: The government is providing substantial financial backing for the Xinchuang sector, with plans for long-term bonds and significant funding allocations [23]. Additional Insights - **Global Supply Chain Opportunities**: The instability in global supply chains presents opportunities for Chinese hardware and software companies to expand internationally, particularly in regions involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [12]. - **Market Share Dynamics**: The Xinchuang industry is seeing shifts in market share across various segments, with domestic products gaining ground against established foreign competitors [25]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and developments discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state and future potential of the Xinchuang industry amidst ongoing global trade challenges.