存储大周期的投资机会梳理 20260107 摘要 国内半导体设备板块被低估，长鑫存储等公司盈利能力强劲，预计 2030 年资本开支或达 500-600 亿美元，行业龙头公司估值和股价空间 将被打开。 阿里云千问大模型在全球范围内具有竞争力，其背后的算力支持及供应 链存在投资机会，对阿里云 2026 年收入持乐观态度。 协创数据是国内最大的第三方算力租赁平台，受益于国内 IDC 建设周期 短和融资成本低的优势，相较海外市场更具发展潜力。 存储进入超级周期，存储涨价将大幅增加厂商盈利，加速中国存储在全 球市场占有率提升，以阿里为代表的开源大模型展现全球竞争力。 协创科技与阿里云建立战略合作，是国内少数获得 NV 官方背书认证的 服务商，累计采购 221 亿元用于投算力租赁和购买卡片，未来计划翻倍 投资。 科玛科技的陶瓷加热器业务取得突破，市场需求极大，预计 2026 年收 入将比 2025 年增长 4 倍，总收入约 3 亿元，毛利率高达 70-80%。 中微公司受益于存储客户订单增加和国产化率提升，预计在十五五规划 期间总收入可达 90-100 亿美元，目标市值可达 4,000 亿元。 Q&A 近期市场上存储产业 ...

鹭羽 发自 凹非寺 量子位 | 公众号 QbitAI 新年刚至，陈天桥携手代季峰率先打响开源大模型 的第一枪。 正式发布其自研的旗舰版搜索智能体模型—— MiroThinker 1.5 ，堪称智能体模型领域的最强小钢炮。 最直观的还是基准测试上的性能评测： 在面对GPT-5-High、Gemini-3-Pro、DeepSeek-V3.2等一系列国内外顶尖模型，MiroThinker 1.5在四项基准测试中的表现都毫不逊色： HLE-Text （人类终极测试） ：39.2% BrowseComp （网页检索类大模型基准测试） ：69.8% BrowseComp-ZH （BrowseComp的中文适配版本） ：71.5% GAIA-Val-165 （GAIA基准测试验证集） ：80.8% | Model | Param | Browse | Browse | HLE | GAIA | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Comp | Comp-ZH | | Val-165 | | Closed-Source Models | | | | | | | GPT-5- ...

2025 年末，一份来自斯坦福大学人本人工智能研究院（Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence，简称 HAI）与 DigiChina 项目联合发布 了一项政策简报，对中国开放权重 AI 模型的全球崛起这一在硅谷引发热议却鲜少被系统分析的话题进行了深入解读。 这份题为《超越 DeepSeek：中国多元化的开放权重 AI 生态系统及其政策影响》的报告，发布于 12 月初，由 Caroline Meinhardt、Sabina Nong、Graham Webster 等五位研究者联合撰写。 报告试图厘清一个现实：当 DeepSeek 在今年 1 月以一款推理模型震惊全球投资者、让英伟达市值单日蒸发近千亿美元时，这家杭州初创公司并非中国 AI 领域的唯一选手。它只是一个更庞大、更多元生态系统的冰山一角。 从追赶到领跑 报告援引的多项数据指向一个明确结论：在开源大模型领域，中国已从追赶者变为领跑者。所谓开放权重，指的是模型的参数权重可供下载、使用和修 改，开发者能够在官方应用或 API 之外独立运行这些模型，并根据自身需求进行调整。 根据 ...

2025年开年，国产大模型就为我们带来了一个惊喜。今年可以说是被"DeepSeek时刻"彻底引爆的一 年。1月20日，DeepSeek-R1震撼发布，不仅在数学、代码推理能力上硬刚顶级闭源模型，更凭借仅约 600万美元的极低训练成本冲击了硅谷的算力霸权。凭借高效算法弥补算力短缺，DeepSeek进行了十分 出色的示范，昂贵的硬件成本开始被大公司更多地权衡。 进入下半年，DeepSeek并未止步。9 月推出的V3.2-Exp引入稀疏注意力机制，将 API 价格再 次"腰斩";12月发布的V3.2正式版更是将逻辑思考能力与Agent(智能体)工具调用深度融合，在IMO、IOI 等国际赛事中斩获金牌级别表现。对3C行业而言，DeepSeek的真正贡献在于其"开源平权"，它让千元 级手机、入门级AI眼镜等端侧设备也能通过超低成本的云端API实现智能体验。DeepSeek之后，国内外 AI公司纷纷开始加码开源大模型，掀起了一轮开源风潮。 【天极网手机频道】2025年即将迎来尾声，身处数码3C行业的我们也经历了跌宕起伏的一年。在这一 年中，我们见证了国产AI大模型群雄并起，与国外顶尖选手一较高下;我们惊讶于各种新形态产品 ...

出品 / 新浪科技（ID:techsina） 作者 / 郑峻 距离2025年结束还有一天时间，美国社交媒体巨头Meta突然宣布收购AI代理创业公司Manus，引入了充满活力与速度的中国创业团队，为扎克伯格 充满焦虑症与危机感的一年画上了充满象征意义的句号。 岁末火线达成收购 Meta的AI业务负责人亚历山大·王(Alexandr Wang)昨天在社交媒体上宣布，Manus已经加入Meta，期待与Manus联合创始人兼CEO肖弘一道打造 出色的AI产品。他称赞，Manus团队在探索当今模型的过剩能力方面处于世界一流水平，能够构建强大的AI代理。 Manus的肖弘回应称， "加入Meta让我们能够在更强大、更可持续的基础上发展，同时不改变Manus的运作方式或决策方式。 "收购完成之后，他将 出任Meta的副总裁，与团队继续留在新加坡。 收购AI代理产品公司Manus，不仅是Meta AI业务版图的又一次扩张与补缺，更是扎克伯格和亚历山大试图引入外部力量重塑内部组织，在内部矛 盾不断的情况下，提振自身AI产品竞争力的又一次豪赌。 Meta在公告中表示，交易完成之后，计划继续运营并销售 Manus的服务，并将其整合 ...

硅谷观察/郑峻 距离2025年结束还有一天时间，美国社交媒体巨头Meta突然宣布收购AI代理创业公司Manus，引入了充 满活力与速度的中国创业团队，为扎克伯格充满焦虑症与危机感的一年画上了充满象征意义的句号。 岁末火线达成收购 Meta的AI业务负责人亚历山大·王（Alexandr Wang）昨天在社交媒体上宣布，Manus已经加入Meta，期 待与Manus联合创始人兼CEO肖弘一道打造出色的AI产品。他称赞，Manus团队在探索当今模型的过剩 能力方面处于世界一流水平，能够构建强大的AI代理。 Manus的肖弘回应称，"加入Meta让我们能够在更强大、更可持续的基础上发展，同时不改变Manus的运 作方式或决策方式。"收购完成之后，他将出任Meta的副总裁，与团队继续留在新加坡。 收购AI代理产品公司Manus，不仅是Meta AI业务版图的又一次扩张与补缺，更是扎克伯格和亚历山大 试图引入外部力量重塑内部组织，在内部矛盾不断的情况下，提振自身AI产品竞争力的又一次豪赌。 Meta在公告中表示，交易完成之后，计划继续运营并销售 Manus的服务，并将其整合到其社交媒体产 品套件中。AI代理工具已经成为巨 ...

Core Insights - The launch of the Doubao mobile assistant in late 2025 has created significant waves in the smartphone industry, being recognized by users as a "truly AI phone" due to its autonomous cross-application operation capabilities [1][5] - However, the Doubao mobile assistant faced usage restrictions in multiple applications, leading to an official statement on December 5 regarding adjustments to its AI operation capabilities [1][3] - The challenges faced by Doubao reflect broader issues in the AI phone sector, particularly concerning user privacy and data rights, which require collaborative efforts from various stakeholders [3][7] Group 1: Technology and Development - The rapid improvement of domestic open-source large models has provided a solid foundation for the iterative development of AI phones, shifting focus from cloud-based models to offline capabilities [4][13] - The announcement of the open-sourcing of the AutoGLM model by Zhiyu on December 9 signifies a move towards "technological equality" in the mobile agent space, potentially lowering development barriers [3][12] - The evolution of AI phones is not just about technological advancements but also involves a complex interplay of patience, restraint, and ecosystem collaboration [4][17] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competition - The Doubao mobile assistant's features are not significantly different from previously demonstrated smart applications by other manufacturers, indicating that the market is still in the early stages of realizing cross-application autonomous capabilities [5][6] - The competition in the AI phone market is fundamentally about ecosystem development, requiring a shift from traditional app models to a more integrated approach that allows for cross-application automation [17][21] - The emergence of AI agents is seen as a potential battleground for user engagement and control over data, with manufacturers needing to navigate the complexities of user habits and regulatory compliance [8][17] Group 3: Industry Challenges - The current landscape reveals a "standard vacuum" regarding user authorization and data rights, complicating the implementation of AI agents that require cross-application functionality [7][18] - The transition to AI agents necessitates a reevaluation of existing operational models, as traditional single-operation authorization methods are inadequate for the demands of AI-driven tasks [7][18] - The industry faces challenges related to memory and power consumption as the capabilities of end-side models expand, necessitating advancements in hardware to support these new demands [18][20] Group 4: Future Outlook - The AI phone competition is evolving from a focus on hardware specifications to a comprehensive race involving end-side capabilities, ecosystem openness, and user experience [21][22] - The integration of AI capabilities into hardware is expected to reshape traditional consumer electronics business models, moving towards subscription-based software services [20][22] - The developments surrounding the Doubao mobile assistant highlight the need for industry-wide collaboration to address the challenges of rights, interests, and standards in the evolving AI landscape [20][22]

吕仲涛指出，当前金融行业的AI创新已进入以大模型为关键抓手的新阶段。特别是随着以DeepSeek R1 为代表的开源大模型生态的崛起，推动大模型生态进入了开源的普惠期，特征包括模型的全能化，技术 的普惠化，应用的全面化，创新的全民化。他总结出智能金融发展的五大核心趋势： 趋势一：慢思考技术拓展复杂业务场景。 以DeepSeek为代表的"慢思考"（思维链）技术显著提升逻辑 推理上限，带来场景创新，使其在信贷授信决策、虚增销售识别、客户潜在需求洞察及舆情深度分析等 细分场景中发挥关键作用，助力实现客户服务精准化、风险管理前瞻化、运营管理自动化。 趋势二：推理成本降低助力智能金融普惠规模发展。 通过模型蒸馏等技术，小参数模型性能大幅提 升，显著降低了AI部署门槛和推理成本。这使得广大中小金融机构能够广泛应用AI技术，从核心业务 延伸至更多长尾场景，增强智能金融服务的高可及性。 趋势三：智能体迭代升级驱动金融智能新时代。 金融智能体正从"推理者"向"智能体"阶段演进。它们 通过增强的信息获取、决策和执行能力，能够执行复杂的金融任务，如交易监控、资产配置、风险评估 等，通过会话式界面串联业务功能，极大提升金融服务效率与 ...

Core Viewpoint - Warmwa Technology is facing significant challenges in its IPO process, including financial data validity, regulatory scrutiny, and operational dependencies, despite impressive revenue growth and a strong market position in AI technology for the insurance industry [2][5]. Financial Performance - Warmwa Technology reported a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 65.5% in revenue over the past three years, with projected revenues of RMB 9.44 billion for 2024 and RMB 4.31 billion for the first half of 2025 [6]. - The company has accumulated a net loss of RMB 718 million from 2022 to the first half of 2025, with losses of RMB 223 million, RMB 240 million, RMB 155 million, and RMB 99.88 million for each respective period [6][9]. - Adjusted net profit turned positive in 2023 at RMB 18.5 million, with projections of RMB 57.5 million for 2024 and RMB 24.9 million for the first half of 2025, indicating a shift towards profitability [7][8]. Profitability and Margins - The gross margin has shown a declining trend, dropping from 58.3% in 2023 to 49.8% in 2024, with a slight recovery to 51.0% in the first half of 2025 [10]. - The AI underwriting solutions segment, which has become a significant revenue driver, saw its gross margin decrease from 69.1% in 2022 to 53.3% in 2024 [11][12]. Customer Dependency - Revenue concentration is a critical concern, with the top five customers accounting for 92.3%, 82.9%, 78.9%, and 73.6% of total revenue from 2022 to the first half of 2025 [14]. - ZhongAn Online, a major shareholder with a 31.65% stake, is also the largest customer, contributing 78.7% to 49.6% of revenue during the same period, raising concerns about the company's independence and diversification [14]. Technology and Compliance Risks - Warmwa Technology's reliance on open-source models like Qwen2.5 and DeepSeek-V3 for its AI systems raises concerns about competitive risks and compliance issues, as these models could lead to potential legal challenges and operational instability [15][16]. - The company acknowledges the evolving regulatory landscape regarding data protection and AI applications, which may impose new compliance costs and uncertainties [16]. IPO Regulatory Environment - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has indicated a tightening of IPO review processes, emphasizing the need for higher quality and compliance in listing applications, which adds further uncertainty to Warmwa Technology's IPO timeline [17].

Core Viewpoint - Warmwa Technology is facing significant challenges in its IPO process, including financial data expiration, scrutiny from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and concerns over its business model and financial health [1][3][19] Financial Performance - Warmwa Technology reported a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 65.5% in revenue over the past three years, with projected revenues of RMB 9.44 billion for 2024 and RMB 4.31 billion for the first half of 2025 [3][5] - The company has accumulated a net loss of RMB 718 million from 2022 to the first half of 2025, with losses of RMB 2.23 billion, RMB 2.40 billion, RMB 1.55 billion, and RMB 998.8 million for each respective period [5][6] - Adjusted net profit turned positive in 2023 at RMB 18.5 million, with projections of RMB 57.5 million for 2024 and RMB 24.9 million for the first half of 2025, indicating a shift towards profitability [6][10] Revenue Concentration - The company relies heavily on its largest client, ZhongAn Online, which accounted for 78.7%, 61.8%, 45.2%, and 49.6% of its revenue from 2022 to the first half of 2025 [13][14] - The concentration of revenue among the top five clients was 92.3%, 82.9%, 78.9%, and 73.6% over the same period, raising concerns about client diversification [14] Technology and Competitive Risks - Warmwa Technology claims to be the largest independent AI technology company in China's insurance industry, but it relies on open-source models like Qwen2.5 and DeepSeek-V3, which may pose risks related to compliance and competition [16][17] - The company acknowledges that its bargaining power with large insurance clients is weak, which could impact its ability to maintain margins and profitability [12] Regulatory Environment - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has indicated a tightening of IPO review processes, emphasizing the need for higher quality and compliance standards in listing applications [19] - Warmwa Technology's IPO timeline is under pressure due to the impending expiration of its financial data validity and the overall uncertainty in the IPO market [1][19]