Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2][4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 7.772 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 2.59%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 707 million yuan, down 33.65% year-on-year. The decline in product prices has negatively impacted overall revenue growth [3]. - Despite the challenges, the company is actively advancing project construction, which is expected to provide new momentum for future development. Key projects include the melamine resin optimization project and the nylon 66 high-end new materials project, which are set to enhance production capacity [4]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 4.008 billion yuan, 4.587 billion yuan, and 5.351 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.89 yuan, 2.16 yuan, and 2.52 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 11, 9, and 8 times for the same years [4]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company's main products, including urea, isooctanol, nylon 6, and others, experienced a decline in prices, leading to a comprehensive gross margin decrease of 5.54 percentage points to 16.35% [3]. - The company’s revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 indicate a gradual recovery, with revenue expected to grow from 36.405 billion yuan in 2025 to 45.073 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 6.37% and 12.01%, respectively [5]. - The company’s net profit is projected to grow at rates of 2.71%, 14.44%, and 16.65% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5].

自2024年1月以来，丁辛醇市场价格震荡下行，累计降幅超过40%。生意社数据显示，截至4月23日，山 东地区正丁醇(工业级)价格为6350~6400元(吨价，下同)，较年初下跌9.5%；异辛醇价格为7350~7600 元，均价为7466.67元，较年初下跌4%。 业内认为，二季度丁辛醇市场供需博弈延续，低位震荡或成主基调。其中，丁醇市场预计延续弱势整 理；辛醇市场下行压力或有所缓解，二季度可能呈现先抑后扬走势。不过，中美关税博弈对中国一次性 防护手套产业形成系统性冲击，或引发增塑剂—辛醇产业链的负反馈，对辛醇需求带来压制。 丁醇：成本与需求双重压制 金联创资讯分析师钱芳指出，一季度丁醇市场呈现三大特征：成本与需求双重压制，工厂让利出货成为 常态，下游仅维持逢低刚需补货；行业开工率波动频繁，局部供应变化引发50~100元的价格短期波 动，但难以扭转下行趋势；同比跌幅持续扩大，反映出终端领域需求整体萎缩。 钱芳认为，一季度丁醇市场震荡下行，供需矛盾成为主导价格波动的核心因素。以山东市场为例，价格 从1月初的7025元跌至3月底的6600元附近，累计跌幅超6%。 "进入4月后，辛醇价格再次下滑，中旬价格更是跌破一季 ...

根据上海证券交易所《关于做好主板上市公司 2025 年第一季度报告披露工作的 重要提醒》、《上市公司自律监管指引第 3 号—行业信息披露第十三号—化工》的要 求，山东华鲁恒升化工股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）现将 2025 年一季度主要 经营数据披露如下： | 本年主要产品 | 生产量（万吨） | 销售量（万吨） | 收入（亿元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 新能源新材料相关产品 | 114.89 | 66.41 | 37.54 | | 化学肥料 | 145.46 | 145.33 | 18.98 | | 有机胺系列产品 | 12.61 | 13.51 | 5.61 | | 醋酸及衍生品 | 35.91 | 33.72 | 8.20 | 一、主要产品的产量、销量及收入实现情况 证券代码：600426 证券简称：华鲁恒升 编号：临 2025-025 山东华鲁恒升化工股份有限公司 2025 年一季度主要经营数据的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 注：新能源新材料相关产品生 ...