Q&A 2024 年百润在安徽地区的预调鸡尾酒销售情况如何？过去三年的销售趋势是 怎样的？ 预调酒龙头与国产威士忌渠道调研 20250827 摘要 百润股份在安徽地区预调鸡尾酒市场面临挑战，2024 年销量略有下滑， 主要原因是经销商毛利空间受挤压及线上平台低价倾销导致市场价格混 乱，公司虽采取处罚和收缩市场费用等措施，但效果有限。 百润股份进行大区调整，引入外部管理经验以提升业绩，但预调鸡尾酒 与饮料在销售渠道和周期上存在差异，调整效果需时间验证。预调鸡尾 酒渠道窄，消费群体年龄层次较窄，且保质期短易导致经销商低价抛售。 Rio 针对 18-35 岁消费群体，推出不同酒精度产品，但男性消费群体增 长有限，强爽产品销量下滑，线上线下价格差异影响消费者选择。清爽 产品定价较低，但经销商缺乏推广动力，导致销售受阻。 Rio 各产品线利润不同，玻璃瓶装利润稍高但季节性明显，清爽渠道价 格未按公司要求执行利润尚可，强爽经销商毛利低依赖返利，存在价格 倒挂现象。轻享新品定位餐饮渠道但未有效执行，难以成为大单品。 公司缺乏专门团队负责餐饮渠道，餐饮渠道增长空间大但难以与啤酒竞 争。超大型会员商超是重要渠道，但地方性折扣店 ...

Summary of Baijiu Co. Conference Call Company Overview - Baijiu Co. originated from the flavor and fragrance industry and has focused on the pre-mixed cocktail channel since establishing its subsidiary, Baijiu Spirits, in 2003, accumulating over 20 years of experience [3] - The company has successfully cultivated popular products like "Mildly Intoxicated" and "Strong Refreshing" and has proactively launched its Laizhou distillery for whiskey production since 2021, marking the beginning of its second growth curve [3][4] Industry Insights Pre-Mixed Cocktail Market - The pre-mixed cocktail market in China has low penetration rates, increasing from 0.1% in 2008 to 0.7% in 2023, significantly lower than the U.S. (9%) and Japan (22%) [5] - The market has experienced various phases: an enlightenment period before the 21st century, rapid growth from 2013 to 2015, and a deep adjustment phase from 2015 to 2017 [5] - Factors driving market growth include the demand for personalization, diversification, and health-conscious drinking among young consumers, alongside precise marketing strategies by manufacturers [5][8] Whiskey Market - The Chinese whiskey market has seen rapid growth, with the overall scale increasing from 1.288 billion yuan in 2013 to 5.5 billion yuan in 2023, averaging a growth rate of 16% [9] - Despite the growth, whiskey penetration remains low, with over 70% of the market dominated by foreign brands [9] - Young consumers are increasingly seeking diverse drinking options, which may lead to a rise in domestic whiskey brands [9][10] Key Business Strategies Product Development - Baijiu Co. has undergone three product cycles in its pre-mixed cocktail business, achieving significant sales growth from 9 million cases to 25 million cases between 2018 and 2021 [6] - The company plans to focus on cultivating refreshing products and introducing new categories to drive revenue growth in 2025 [4][8] Marketing and Sales - The company has leveraged its marketing experience from the pre-mixed cocktail sector to promote its whiskey products, utilizing emotional marketing, pop-up events, and interactive promotions [4][14] - Baijiu Co. has established a comprehensive channel system primarily focused on offline retail, aligning well with whiskey consumption channels [4][12] Pricing and Product Specifications - In March 2025, Baijiu Co. launched two whiskey products priced around 100 yuan, targeting the mass market with various specifications to cater to different consumption scenarios [13] - The company has also introduced a range of new whiskey products, including a flavor blind box that quickly gained popularity among consumers [13] Future Outlook - For 2025, Baijiu Co. anticipates a recovery in its pre-mixed cocktail business, supported by new product launches and a focus on marketing strategies [16] - The whiskey business is expected to see steady growth as new products are rolled out and sales channels are expanded [16] - Long-term growth potential remains strong, with a focus on product matrix expansion and consumer engagement strategies [16]

Summary of Conference Call Records Company and Industry Involved - **Companies**: 海天味业 (Haitian Flavoring & Food Co., Ltd.), 百润股份 (Bairun Co., Ltd.) - **Industry**: Food and Beverage, specifically focusing on sauces and alcoholic beverages Key Points and Arguments Inventory and Sales Performance - Haitian's sales may be underreported due to sales staff aiming to meet assessment targets, leading to actual inventory levels potentially exceeding reported figures by 0.5%, reaching 24.5% [1][2][3] - In Q2, Haitian aims for a 24% growth target, requiring an 11% increase compared to the previous year, which is challenging due to slower recovery in the dining market and reduced growth in residential channels [2][4] - Bairun's offline shipment in April dropped year-on-year, with major products like 强爽 (Qiangshuang) and 微醺 (Weixun) experiencing varying degrees of decline, increasing inventory pressure on distributors [1][16] Market Dynamics and Challenges - The salad dressing market underperformed in 2025 compared to 2024, lacking standout products and contributing less to overall sales [1][5] - The economic environment and declining prices of products like Rio have negatively impacted Bairun's sales volume and distributor profits, necessitating attention to market turning points and new product launches [1][6][22] - The overall growth in the dining sector was initially estimated at 5%, but actual growth in April was below 3%, with residential growth around 8-9%, both underperforming expectations [5] Strategic Adjustments - Haitian is increasing expenditure to combat fierce market competition, focusing on residential channels and supporting secondary network distributors to enhance market share [1][8] - Bairun is tightening sales expenses to maintain profit margins, with plans to increase spending if June sales do not meet expectations [1][41] Distributor Network and Support - Haitian categorizes distributors into primary and secondary networks, with secondary distributors focusing on new and niche products, receiving more support in terms of shipping, rebates, and promotional activities [9][10][11] - The secondary network comprises about 700 distributors, accounting for roughly 10% of the total, with a higher return on investment compared to primary distributors [12] Product Development and Market Trends - Potential high-growth products for 2025 include salad dressings, cooking wine, and vinegar, with expected growth rates of 30% for salad dressings and over 10% for vinegar [14] - The overall sales expenses for 2025 are projected to be controlled at levels similar to 2024, with adjustments based on actual sales performance [41][42] Competitive Landscape - The competitive environment has intensified, with new entrants and existing brands increasing their market presence, although overall industry demand remains weak [24] - The decline in channel profits is primarily concentrated in the 强爽 product line, while 微醺 and 清爽 products have shown relative stability [33] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a potential sales recovery around August 2025, contingent on new product launches and resolution of existing market issues [27] - Current market challenges include consumer downgrading, severe inventory accumulation among distributors, and credit limitations affecting overall channel profitability [28][29] Other Important but Overlooked Content - The company is actively managing inventory and addressing excess stock issues, although it has not allocated specific funds for these measures [29] - The overall inventory level is approximately 300 million boxes, with expectations to reach 500 million by year-end, indicating a need for improved inventory turnover [20][30] - The online sales performance for retail brands remains low, with less than 5% of sales coming from online channels, highlighting the challenges of competing with traditional retail [66][68]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with a slight recovery in Q1 2025, indicating a stabilization in the pre-mixed cocktail business and the introduction of new whiskey brands [1][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 3.048 billion yuan, down 6.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 719 million yuan, down 11.2% year-on-year [1]. - For Q4 2024, revenue was 662 million yuan, down 18.0% year-on-year, while net profit was 145 million yuan, up 0.5% year-on-year [1]. - In Q1 2025, revenue was 737 million yuan, down 8.1% year-on-year, and net profit was 181 million yuan, up 7.0% year-on-year [1]. Business Segment Performance - Pre-mixed cocktails saw a 7.2% decline in overall sales for 2024, with volume down 8.8% and price per ton up 1.8% [2]. - The whiskey segment is being positioned for growth, with new products launched in March 2025 and positive feedback on initial offerings [2][4]. Profitability Metrics - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 69.67%, an increase of 3.0 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - In Q1 2025, the gross margin was 69.66%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, indicating stable profitability [3]. - The net profit margin for 2024 was 23.59%, down 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, while for Q1 2025, it was 24.61%, up 3.5 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Strategic Outlook - The company is focusing on enhancing its pre-mixed product matrix and the sales rhythm of new whiskey brands, with expectations for continued growth in 2025 [4]. - The company plans to introduce various types of single malt whiskey, aiming to establish a high-quality image for its brand [4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 3.391 billion yuan and 3.953 billion yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 11.2% and 16.6% [4]. - Expected net profits for 2025 and 2026 are 810 million yuan and 1 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 12.6% and 23.6% [4].