过去，社会对老年人旅游的印象离不开"贪便宜"三个字。但新 一代退休人群正用他们的选择打破这一刻板印象。 作者： 郑淯心 封图：图虫创意 国庆假期，悬空寺台阶上人挤人。兰姐举起手机，让前面几个年龄相仿的姐妹向镜头挥手，她把视频发到朋友圈，配上文字："姐妹们说下次要去西 藏！" 这个国庆假期，兰姐的微信朋友圈几乎每天都在更新。悬空寺的视频下面，儿子回复："注意安全。"她却发了个调皮的表情："放心，这比在家带劲多 了。" 像兰姐这样活跃在旅途中的银发族正迅速增多。 携程数据显示，2024年银发人群出游订单比2023年增长超22%，显著高于大盘。其中，61—65岁成为 增速最高的群体，同比增速达58%。他们不再满足于"看看就行"，更偏向高星级酒店和飞机出行，展现出旺盛的消费力。 政策也在为这场"银发旅行热"添柴加火。今年，民政部等19部门联合印发《关于支持老年人社会参与 推动实现老有所为的指导意见》，明确提出提升 旅游服务设施适老化水平，鼓励开发旅居养老、家庭同游等产品。 随着我国进入中度老龄化社会，60岁以上人口已达3.1亿，银发旅游正成为文旅消费市场一片新的蓝海。不少景区都在进行适老化改造。 携程、众信 旅游等平 ...

随着我国进入中度老龄化社会，60岁以上人口已达3.1亿，银发旅游正成为文旅消费市场一片新的蓝海。不少景区都在进行适老化改造。携程、众 信旅游等平台，也为银发族开发着新的旅游产品。 （原标题：银发旅行热：消费升级、适老化与新蓝海） 国庆假期，悬空寺台阶上人挤人。兰姐举起手机，让前面几个年龄相仿的姐妹向镜头挥手，她把视频发到朋友圈，配上文字："姐妹们说下次要去 西藏！" 这个国庆假期，兰姐的微信朋友圈几乎每天都在更新。悬空寺的视频下面，儿子回复："注意安全。"她却发了个调皮的表情："放心，这比在家带 劲多了。" 像兰姐这样活跃在旅途中的银发族正迅速增多。携程数据显示，2024年银发人群出游订单比2023年增长超22%，显著高于大盘。其中，61—65岁 成为增速最高的群体，同比增速达58%。他们不再满足于"看看就行"，更偏向高星级酒店和飞机出行，展现出旺盛的消费力。 政策也在为这场"银发旅行热"添柴加火。今年，民政部等19部门联合印发《关于支持老年人社会参与 推动实现老有所为的指导意见》，明确提出 提升旅游服务设施适老化水平，鼓励开发旅居养老、家庭同游等产品。 不再追求低价 过去，社会对老年人旅游的印象离不开"贪便 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the travel industry, particularly on Ctrip, with a target price of $82 based on a 20x PE for 2026 N-GAAP OP of 20.851 billion RMB [4]. Core Insights - The global travel market has recovered to pre-pandemic levels, with a significant increase in inbound tourism driven by visa-free policies, showing a 15.8% year-on-year growth in inbound visitors in the first half of 2025 [3][7]. - The hotel industry is facing an oversupply, with a supply growth rate of 11.8% in the first half of 2025, leading to a potential 2-3 year period for inventory digestion [3][11]. - Ctrip is focusing on enhancing hotel efficiency and creating new demand scenarios, such as inbound tourism and performance markets [3][4]. - The importance of membership ecosystems is emphasized, as loyalty programs significantly influence the travel behavior of the new generation of travelers [3][7]. - AI applications in the travel industry are on the rise, with over 64% of consumers having used AI for travel planning, although concerns about data security and decision transparency remain barriers [3][15]. Summary by Sections Global Travel Market - The global travel market has returned to pre-pandemic levels, with online penetration rates continuing to rise. Inbound tourism saw a 15.8% increase in visitor numbers in the first half of 2025, with visa-free visitors growing by 53.9% [3][7]. - The demand for outbound travel is also recovering, with short-haul outbound travel increasing by 38.1% and long-haul by 22.3% [3][7]. Hotel Industry - The hotel industry is experiencing oversupply, with a 11.8% growth in hotel supply in the first half of 2025. Ctrip's CEO suggests that it may take 2-3 years to digest this inventory [3][11]. - Major hotel groups like Huazhu, Jinjiang, and Shoulv are focusing on deepening domestic market operations, with Huazhu making progress in Southeast Asia [3][11]. Ctrip - Ctrip is implementing strategies to help hotels improve efficiency and create new demand scenarios, such as inbound tourism and performance markets [3][4]. - The company is also enhancing its marketing efforts in overseas markets to capture the spending mindset of inbound foreign tourists [4]. Membership Ecosystem - The loyalty programs are increasingly influential among younger travelers, with 15-20% of the younger generation willing to spend more for membership upgrades [7]. AI Applications - AI is being increasingly utilized in the travel industry, with 64% of consumers having used AI for travel planning. However, issues like data security and decision transparency are still significant concerns [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ctrip Group-S (09961.HK) with a target price of 606.90 HKD, reflecting a potential upside from the current closing price of 576.00 HKD [5][3][20]. Core Insights - Ctrip's Q2 2025 performance is strong, with net operating revenue reaching 14.8 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 16%, and net profit of 4.9 billion RMB, up 26% year-on-year. The growth is driven by robust travel demand, particularly during holiday periods [1][9]. - The international business segment shows significant growth, with total bookings on the international OTA platform increasing by over 60% year-on-year, driven by the Asia-Pacific region and mobile bookings, which now account for 70% of total bookings [1][17]. - The report highlights the increasing participation and purchasing power of the silver-haired demographic through the "Old Friends Club," which saw user numbers and GMV grow over 100% since the end of 2024 [2][19]. Summary by Sections International Business Growth - Ctrip's international OTA platform has shown strong growth, with inbound travel bookings more than doubling year-on-year, primarily driven by demand from South Korea and Southeast Asia [1][17]. - Domestic travelers' enthusiasm for outbound travel continues to recover, with bookings for hotels and flights exceeding 120% of the same period in 2019 [1][17]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report projects revenues of 61.82 billion RMB for 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.0%, and net profit of 17.71 billion RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 3.7% [3][20]. - Ctrip's domestic business remains strong, while international operations are expected to contribute additional growth, making it a valuable long-term investment [3][20]. - The expected PE ratios for 2025-2027 are 21.4X, 18.6X, and 15.9X, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [3][20].

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip reported strong financial performance for Q2 2025, with significant growth in net revenue and profit, driven by a surge in inbound tourism bookings and a focus on quality service over price competition [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - In Q2, Ctrip's net operating revenue reached 14.8 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 16% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7% [2]. - The net profit attributable to Ctrip's shareholders was 4.8 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 26.3% [2]. Business Segments - Accommodation booking revenue was 6.2 billion RMB, up 21% year-on-year; transportation ticketing revenue was 5.4 billion RMB, up 11% year-on-year; and vacation business revenue was 1.1 billion RMB, with business travel management revenue at 690 million RMB, showing year-on-year growth of 5% and 9% respectively [4]. - The international segment saw OTA platform bookings increase by over 60% year-on-year, with the Asia-Pacific region contributing significantly to international revenue [4]. Inbound Tourism Growth - Inbound tourism bookings doubled, primarily driven by demand from South Korea and Southeast Asia [5]. - Ctrip's outbound hotel and flight bookings surpassed 120% of pre-pandemic levels, leading the market by 30-40 percentage points [4][5]. Market Trends - The inbound tourism sector currently contributes less than 0.5% to China's GDP, indicating substantial growth potential compared to developed countries where it typically ranges from 1% to 2% [5]. - Ctrip's "Smart Travel Future" hotel empowerment plan aims to enhance service capabilities and efficiency for various hotel types, targeting a 100% annual growth in inbound tourism orders over the next three years [5]. Target Demographics - Ctrip is focusing on the "silver-haired" market and younger travelers, with the "Ctrip Old Friends Club" seeing membership and transaction volume growth exceeding 100% year-on-year [6]. - The silver-haired demographic is projected to exceed 100 million by 2025, with significant potential for tourism revenue growth [6]. Product Innovation - The "Tourism + Entertainment" product segment saw revenue growth exceeding 100%, driven by the popularity of concerts and live events [8]. - Ctrip is investing in AI-driven travel planning tools to enhance user experience and optimize travel itineraries based on individual preferences [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][27]. Core Insights - The company's Q4 2024 performance met expectations, with international business continuing to grow. Q4 revenue reached 12.7 billion yuan, a 23% year-on-year increase, while the full-year revenue for 2024 was 53.3 billion yuan, up 20% year-on-year. The net profit for 2024 was 17.2 billion yuan, reflecting a 72% increase year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 32.3% [1][11][14]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 53.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 20%. The net profit for the same year was 17.2 billion yuan, marking a 72% increase. The revenue structure is primarily driven by transportation and accommodation, which together account for approximately 80% of total revenue [11][12][14]. Business Segments - Accommodation revenue for 2024 was 21.6 billion yuan, up 25% year-on-year, while transportation ticketing revenue reached 20.3 billion yuan, a 10% increase. The vacation segment saw a significant growth of 38% year-on-year, reaching 4.3 billion yuan, driven by international business growth [12][14][24]. International Expansion - The company’s international business is expanding rapidly, with Q4 2024 outbound hotel and flight bookings exceeding 120% of the same period in 2019. The international business accounted for 10% of total revenue for the year, with a strong focus on the Asia-Pacific market [2][18][24]. AI Integration - The integration of AI technologies is enhancing operational efficiency, with AI customer service improving response times and IT development efficiency. The AI tools, such as TripGenie, have seen significant engagement growth, indicating their potential as new customer acquisition channels [20][24]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 61.6 billion yuan, 68.9 billion yuan, and 76.1 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 15.6%, 11.9%, and 10.4%. Net profit is expected to reach 17.9 billion yuan, 20.8 billion yuan, and 23.5 billion yuan over the same period [7][24].

跨境游亦增长显著。第四季度，携程出境酒店、机票预订较2019年同期增长超20%；携程国际OTA 平台酒店、机票预订同比增长超过70%。四季度及全年，携程入境游预订量均同比增长超100%， 其中，来自免签国家的全年预订量同比增长超150%。 "随着消费者对探索世界和文化体验的日益渴望，2024年旅游市场展现了显著的韧性。"携程集团联 合创始人、董事局主席梁建章表示，"我们致力于投资人工智能并促进入境游发展，以创新助力整体 旅游体验提升。" 以创新助力整体旅游体验提升。 本文为IPO早知道原创 作者｜Stone Jin 微信公众号｜ipozaozhidao 据IPO早知道消息，携程集团（纳斯达克：TCOM；香港联交所：9961）于2月25日公布了其2024 年第四季度及全年未经审计的财务业绩。 第四季度，携程集团净营业收入为127亿元，全年净营业收入为533亿。第四季度净利润为22亿，全 年净利润为172亿。 其中，住宿预订、交通票务、旅游度假、商旅管理等四大业务，四季度营收分别为52亿、48亿、 8.7亿、7.02亿，全年营收分别为216亿、203亿、43亿、25亿。 持续服务入境游和银发人群 为旅游市场带来增 ...