美光FY26Q1财报交出亮眼答卷：单季营收136.4亿美元，远超122-128亿美元指引区间，比市场预期多 赚近7亿；调整后EPS4.78美元，大幅超越3.95美元的市场预期。 公司更是加码押注，将FY26资本开支从180亿美元上调至200亿，FY27还将继续增加。另一边，韩国双 雄来势汹汹，三星记忆体部门与SK海力士Q4毛利率预计达63%-67%，有望七年来首次超越台积电的 60%。 AI驱动下，存储行业强势复苏，HBM和数据中心SSD成增长核心。这场狂欢是短期炒作还是长期红 利？全球半导体格局又将如何重塑？ 01 业绩拆解：AI驱动的"量价齐升+利润爆炸" 美光FY26Q1业绩全面超预期，营收到利润、产品结构到现金流，均彰显AI存储的火爆。 1.营收与盈利：碾压式超预期，现金流创纪录 单季营收136.4亿美元，同比大增57%，环比上涨21%，增速刷新近五年新高。 收入增长并非"以价换量"，主要由价格上涨驱动，比特出货量仅小幅增长。调整后EPS4.78美元，远超 市场预期的3.95美元，较上一季度直接跳级。 非GAAP毛利率飙升至56.8%，同比暴涨17.3个百分点，环比提升11.1个百分点，远超50.5% ...

Core Viewpoint - Micron's FY26 Q1 financial report shows impressive results, with revenue of $13.64 billion, significantly exceeding the guidance range of $12.2-12.8 billion and market expectations by nearly $700 million. Adjusted EPS reached $4.78, far surpassing the market expectation of $3.95 [5][8][11] Group 1: Revenue and Profitability - Micron's revenue for the quarter increased by 57% year-over-year and 21% quarter-over-quarter, marking the highest growth rate in nearly five years [8] - The revenue growth was primarily driven by price increases rather than volume, with bit shipments showing only slight growth. The adjusted EPS of $4.78 represents a significant jump from the previous quarter [11] - Non-GAAP gross margin surged to 56.8%, a year-over-year increase of 17.3 percentage points, and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 11.1 percentage points, far exceeding the guidance of 50.5%-52.5% [11] - Operating cash flow reached $8.41 billion, well above the expected $5.94 billion, while adjusted free cash flow hit a record $3.91 billion, with a free cash flow margin close to 30% [11] Group 2: Product Structure - DRAM remains the dominant segment, generating $10.8 billion in revenue, accounting for 79% of total revenue, with a quarter-over-quarter growth of 20% [12] - The average selling price (ASP) for DRAM increased by approximately 20% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting the scarcity of supply [12] - NAND revenue reached $2.7 billion, representing 20% of total revenue, with a quarter-over-quarter growth of 22% [12] - HBM is highlighted as a key growth driver, with all of Micron's HBM capacity for 2026 already sold out, and HBM4 expected to enter mass production in Q2 2026 [12] Group 3: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand for storage is being driven by AI, with a "voracious" appetite for storage across all categories, leading to widespread price increases [15][16] - HBM prices have surged by 500% this year, while DDR4 prices have increased by over 50% [15] - The supply of DRAM and NAND is expected to grow by only about 20% year-over-year, significantly lagging behind demand growth, leading to a persistent supply-demand imbalance [19] - Micron's strategy involves balancing production between HBM and traditional DRAM while prioritizing strategic customers in data centers [20] Group 4: Future Outlook - The global storage market is projected to reach $193.2 billion by 2025, setting a historical record [22] - Key signals to watch for the sustainability of this recovery include whether Micron can maintain its strong performance in FY26 Q2, with guidance suggesting revenue of $18.3-19.1 billion and adjusted EPS of $8.42 [24] - The release of new production capacity and advancements in technology will be critical for growth, particularly in HBM [25][26] - The balance of supply and demand, along with price trends, will be crucial in determining the industry's profitability in the long term [27]

Core Viewpoint - Micron's Q1 FY26 earnings report significantly exceeded market expectations, indicating a strong growth trajectory for the semiconductor industry, particularly in AI-related sectors, with projections for substantial revenue increases in the coming quarters [3][19]. Financial Performance - Revenue for Q1 FY26 reached $13.64 billion, a 57% year-over-year increase and a 21% quarter-over-quarter increase, surpassing the market consensus of $12.92 billion [3]. - The company expects Q2 FY26 revenue to be $18.7 billion, reflecting a 132% year-over-year increase and a 37% quarter-over-quarter increase [3]. - GAAP gross margin was 56%, up 17.6 percentage points year-over-year and 11.3 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, with an expected gross margin of 67% for Q2 FY26 [3]. - GAAP operating profit was $6.14 billion, a 68% quarter-over-quarter increase, with an operating margin of 45% [3]. - GAAP net profit was $5.24 billion, a 64% quarter-over-quarter increase, exceeding market expectations of $4.33 billion [3]. Business Segments - DRAM revenue was $10.04 billion, a 57% year-over-year increase and a 12% quarter-over-quarter increase, accounting for 74% of total revenue [7]. - NAND revenue was $2.45 billion, a 9% year-over-year increase and a 9% quarter-over-quarter increase, with a revenue share dropping to 18% [9]. - CMBU (Cloud and Data Center) revenue was $5.28 billion, a 100% year-over-year increase and a 16% quarter-over-quarter increase, with a gross margin of 66% [13]. - MCBU (Mobile and PC) revenue was $4.26 billion, a 63% year-over-year increase and a 13% quarter-over-quarter increase, with a gross margin of 54% [13]. Market Outlook - The company anticipates a high-teens percentage growth in server shipments in 2025, with strong demand expected to continue into 2026 [16]. - DRAM bit demand is projected to grow in the low-20% range, while NAND bit demand is expected to grow in the high-teens percentage [17]. - The company plans to increase capital expenditures to $20 billion for FY26, primarily focused on HBM and other DRAM-related expansions [17]. Strategic Insights - Micron's management indicated that the total addressable market (TAM) for HBM is expected to exceed $35 billion in 2025 and reach $100 billion by 2028, two years earlier than previously anticipated [19][20]. - The company is negotiating long-term contracts with key customers that differ significantly from past agreements, reflecting a commitment to meet growing demand [17]. - The company is focusing on expanding production capacity for mainstream DRAM and HBM, with several facilities planned for future production increases [17].

美光科技 20250924 摘要 美光科技 2025 财年收入增长近 50%，达 37.4 亿美元，毛利率提升 17 个百分点至 41%。HBM 高容量 DIMS 和 LP 服务器 DRAM 合并收入达 100 亿美元，同比增长超过五倍。数据中心 SSD 业务也创下历史收入和 市场份额记录，显示出强劲的增长势头。 美光在 HBM、下一代 DRAM 和 NAND 技术领域拥有领先地位，通过广 泛使用人工智能技术，生产率提高 30%至 40%。一代先进工艺节点已 成熟，第 9 代 NAND 生产稳步推进，并根据市场需求进行扩产，巩固了 其技术优势。 美光的数据中心业务收入占比达到历史新高 56%，毛利率为 52%。高 性能存储器（HPM）业务增长强劲，第四财季收入接近 20 亿美元，年 化运营率接近 80 亿美元。LPDDR5 服务器产品环比增长超过 50%，创 下收入纪录。 美光计划继续投资日本、新加坡和爱达荷州等地的新制造设施，以满足 未来先进存储技术需求。爱达荷州的新高容量制造厂预计 2027 年下半 年开始投产，并已启动第二个工厂的设计工作，进一步扩大产能。 Q&A 美光科技在 2025 财年第四季度的业 ...

Core Viewpoint - Micron expects significant growth in capital expenditures for fiscal year 2025, projecting that capital spending will reach approximately 35% of revenue, primarily driven by investments in new wafer fabs and HBM technology [3][4][27]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the fourth fiscal quarter, Micron reported revenue of approximately $7.8 billion, a 14% quarter-over-quarter increase and a 93% year-over-year increase [29]. - For fiscal year 2024, total revenue reached $25.1 billion, representing a 62% year-over-year growth [29]. - The fourth quarter's DRAM revenue was $5.3 billion, a 93% year-over-year increase, accounting for 69% of total revenue [29]. Group 2: HBM Market Outlook - Micron achieved hundreds of millions in HBM revenue for fiscal year 2024 and anticipates tens of billions in HBM revenue for fiscal year 2025 [5][17]. - The total addressable market (TAM) for HBM is expected to grow from approximately $4 billion in 2023 to over $25 billion by 2025, with HBM's market share projected to increase from 1.5% to around 6% [5][17]. - Micron's HBM3E solutions are gaining traction among customers, with strong demand anticipated for high-capacity D5 and LP5 solutions [17][19]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of advanced processes is currently very tight due to reduced capital expenditures in 2022 and 2023, leading to a significant decline in wafer capacity from peak levels [6][26]. - The industry expects DRAM demand growth of approximately 15% for fiscal year 2024, with similar growth anticipated for fiscal year 2025 [5][26]. - The PC market is projected to see stable growth, with an expected increase in shipments driven by the launch of next-generation AI PCs and the transition to Windows 12 [6][21]. Group 4: Capital Expenditure Strategy - Micron's capital expenditures for fiscal year 2024 were $8.1 billion, with expectations for a substantial increase in fiscal year 2025, primarily focused on HBM investments [4][27]. - The company plans to maintain strict control over capital expenditures to ensure alignment with industry demand while focusing on improving profitability [27][38]. - Investments in new facilities in Idaho and New York are aimed at supporting long-term DRAM demand, although they will not contribute to supply in the near term [27].

Core Insights - Micron Technology reported record revenue of $11.32 billion for FY25Q4, a 46% year-over-year increase and a 22% quarter-over-quarter increase, with expectations of $12.5 billion in revenue for FY26Q1, representing a 44% year-over-year growth and an 11% quarter-over-quarter growth [3][19] - The company achieved a GAAP gross margin of 44.7%, up 7 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, and anticipates a gross margin of 50.5% for FY26Q1, a 5.8 percentage point increase [3][21] - GAAP net income reached $3.2 billion, a 70% quarter-over-quarter increase, with expectations of $4.02 billion for FY26Q1 [3][19] Business Segments - DRAM revenue was $9 billion, a 69% year-over-year increase and a 27% quarter-over-quarter increase, accounting for 79% of total revenue [5] - NAND revenue was $2.3 billion, a 5% year-over-year decline, ending a streak of seven consecutive quarters of growth, with a revenue share of 20% [7] - CMBU business, representing cloud computing DRAM and overall data center HBM, generated $4.54 billion in revenue, a 214% year-over-year increase [12] - CDBU business, representing OEM data center DRAM and NAND, saw revenue of $1.58 billion, a 23% year-over-year decline [12] - MCBU business, representing mobile/PC DRAM and NAND, generated $3.76 billion, a 25% year-over-year increase [12] - AEBU business, representing automotive/industrial/consumer DRAM and NAND, achieved $1.44 billion in revenue, a 17% year-over-year increase [12] Market Outlook - The company expects DRAM bit demand to grow in the high-teens percentage for 2025, while NAND bit demand is projected to grow in the low to mid-teens percentage [14][21] - Server shipments are expected to increase by 10% year-over-year in 2025, driven by AI training and inference demand [15] - The automotive and industrial demand has exceeded expectations, with ongoing supply constraints for D4/LP4 products [16] Product Developments - HBM3E supply is largely locked in for 2026, while negotiations for HBM4 are ongoing, with initial samples sent to customers [14] - The company plans to focus on high-margin products, with expectations of continued gross margin improvement [20][21] - The first 1-gamma D5 product has entered mass production, and SSD revenue has reached new highs [16] Valuation Insights - The estimated total addressable market (TAM) for HBM in 2025 is projected at $35 billion, with Micron's market share expected to be around 25%, translating to approximately $8.8 billion in revenue [19] - Micron's current price-to-book (PB) ratio is 3.4x, significantly above its historical average of 1.8x, indicating a shift in valuation from a cyclical to a growth stock [20]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Micron Technology achieved record revenue of $37.4 billion in fiscal 2025, a nearly 50% increase year-over-year, with gross margins expanding by 17 percentage points to 41% [4][20] - Fiscal Q4 revenue was $11.3 billion, up 22% sequentially and 46% year-over-year, marking a quarterly record [20] - Earnings per share (EPS) reached $8.29, reflecting a 538% increase compared to the prior year [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - DRAM revenue in fiscal Q4 was a record $9 billion, up 69% year-over-year, representing 79% of total revenue [20] - NAND revenue for fiscal Q4 was $2.3 billion, down 5% year-over-year but up 5% sequentially [21] - The Cloud Memory Business Unit (CMBU) generated $4.5 billion, accounting for 40% of total revenue, with gross margins of 59% [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Data center business reached a record 56% of total company revenue in fiscal 2025, with gross margins of 52% [10] - The total server units in calendar 2025 are expected to grow approximately 10%, up from previous mid-single-digit growth expectations [9] - Smartphone unit shipment expectations remain unchanged at low single-digit percentage growth in calendar 2025, with an increasing mix of AI-ready smartphones [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Micron is positioned to benefit significantly from AI-driven demand, with a focus on advanced technologies like HBM and 1-gamma DRAM [5][29] - The company plans to continue investing in its manufacturing capabilities, including a new high-volume fab in Idaho and expansion in Japan and Singapore [8][9] - Micron aims to leverage its leadership in advanced technologies to maximize ROI and enhance product mix and profitability [5][10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in strong demand across various end markets, including data centers, traditional servers, and AI applications [10][49] - The company anticipates continued tightness in DRAM supply and improving conditions in the NAND market [18][19] - Fiscal Q1 guidance reflects expectations for record revenue and EPS, with gross margins projected to strengthen [28] Other Important Information - Micron invested $13.8 billion in capital expenditures in fiscal 2025, with expectations for higher spending in fiscal 2026 [19] - The company achieved a significant increase in productivity through AI applications, with improvements in design and manufacturing processes [6] Q&A Session Summary Question: Guidance on revenue split between DRAM and NAND - Management indicated that the first quarter will have a heavier DRAM mix than NAND, with expectations for a 580 basis points sequential margin expansion driven by pricing and strong execution [32] Question: Update on HBM total addressable market (TAM) - Management reiterated the expectation for HBM TAM to reach $100 billion by 2030, with HBM bit CAGR expected to outgrow DRAM CAGR [36] Question: Transition from HBM3E to HBM4 - HBM4 production is expected to ramp in line with customer demand, with first shipments anticipated in the second quarter of 2026 [40] Question: DRAM demand sustainability - Management noted strong demand across AI applications, traditional servers, and smartphones, contributing to a healthy demand-supply environment [49] Question: CapEx breakdown for fiscal 2026 - Management stated that the majority of fiscal 2026 CapEx will be for DRAM-related construction and equipment, with a net CapEx guidance of around $18 billion [51]