美光科技 20250924 摘要 美光科技 2025 财年收入增长近 50%，达 37.4 亿美元，毛利率提升 17 个百分点至 41%。HBM 高容量 DIMS 和 LP 服务器 DRAM 合并收入达 100 亿美元，同比增长超过五倍。数据中心 SSD 业务也创下历史收入和 市场份额记录，显示出强劲的增长势头。 美光在 HBM、下一代 DRAM 和 NAND 技术领域拥有领先地位，通过广 泛使用人工智能技术，生产率提高 30%至 40%。一代先进工艺节点已 成熟，第 9 代 NAND 生产稳步推进，并根据市场需求进行扩产，巩固了 其技术优势。 美光的数据中心业务收入占比达到历史新高 56%，毛利率为 52%。高 性能存储器（HPM）业务增长强劲，第四财季收入接近 20 亿美元，年 化运营率接近 80 亿美元。LPDDR5 服务器产品环比增长超过 50%，创 下收入纪录。 美光计划继续投资日本、新加坡和爱达荷州等地的新制造设施，以满足 未来先进存储技术需求。爱达荷州的新高容量制造厂预计 2027 年下半 年开始投产，并已启动第二个工厂的设计工作，进一步扩大产能。 Q&A 美光科技在 2025 财年第四季度的业 ...

硬·AI 作者 | 赵 颖 编辑 | 硬 AI AI需求强劲支撑上，存储芯片巨头美光交了一份亮眼的成绩单，上季营收劲增46%，而且指引碾压预期再 创新高，并预期资本支出将进一步增长。 在财报发布后的财报电话会中，美光表达了乐观的预期，2025财年资本支出将大幅增长，占收入比重将达 到35%左右，2025财年预计实现数十亿美元的HBM收入；先进制程的供应非常紧张，供应紧张不仅存在 于HBM市场，也存在于非HBM市场。 美光预计，2025财年资本支出将大幅增长，占收入比重将达到35%左右，预计新建晶圆厂和HBM资本支出投资的增长将 占增长的绝大部分；先进制程的供应非常紧张，在2022年和2023 年随着资本支出的减少，以及全行业向新技术节点的转 型，晶圆产能已从峰值水平大幅下降。供应紧张不仅存在于HBM市场，也存在于非HBM市场。 公司参与者 Satya Kumar - 投资者关系 Sanjay Mehrotra - 总裁兼首席执行官 Mark Murphy - 执行副总裁兼首席财务官 电话会议参与者 以下是电话会要点： 1、美光在2024财年的资本支出为81亿美元，根据目前的资本支出和收入预期，预计 2025财 ...

Core Insights - Micron Technology reported record revenue of $11.32 billion for FY25Q4, a 46% year-over-year increase and a 22% quarter-over-quarter increase, with expectations of $12.5 billion in revenue for FY26Q1, representing a 44% year-over-year growth and an 11% quarter-over-quarter growth [3][19] - The company achieved a GAAP gross margin of 44.7%, up 7 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, and anticipates a gross margin of 50.5% for FY26Q1, a 5.8 percentage point increase [3][21] - GAAP net income reached $3.2 billion, a 70% quarter-over-quarter increase, with expectations of $4.02 billion for FY26Q1 [3][19] Business Segments - DRAM revenue was $9 billion, a 69% year-over-year increase and a 27% quarter-over-quarter increase, accounting for 79% of total revenue [5] - NAND revenue was $2.3 billion, a 5% year-over-year decline, ending a streak of seven consecutive quarters of growth, with a revenue share of 20% [7] - CMBU business, representing cloud computing DRAM and overall data center HBM, generated $4.54 billion in revenue, a 214% year-over-year increase [12] - CDBU business, representing OEM data center DRAM and NAND, saw revenue of $1.58 billion, a 23% year-over-year decline [12] - MCBU business, representing mobile/PC DRAM and NAND, generated $3.76 billion, a 25% year-over-year increase [12] - AEBU business, representing automotive/industrial/consumer DRAM and NAND, achieved $1.44 billion in revenue, a 17% year-over-year increase [12] Market Outlook - The company expects DRAM bit demand to grow in the high-teens percentage for 2025, while NAND bit demand is projected to grow in the low to mid-teens percentage [14][21] - Server shipments are expected to increase by 10% year-over-year in 2025, driven by AI training and inference demand [15] - The automotive and industrial demand has exceeded expectations, with ongoing supply constraints for D4/LP4 products [16] Product Developments - HBM3E supply is largely locked in for 2026, while negotiations for HBM4 are ongoing, with initial samples sent to customers [14] - The company plans to focus on high-margin products, with expectations of continued gross margin improvement [20][21] - The first 1-gamma D5 product has entered mass production, and SSD revenue has reached new highs [16] Valuation Insights - The estimated total addressable market (TAM) for HBM in 2025 is projected at $35 billion, with Micron's market share expected to be around 25%, translating to approximately $8.8 billion in revenue [19] - Micron's current price-to-book (PB) ratio is 3.4x, significantly above its historical average of 1.8x, indicating a shift in valuation from a cyclical to a growth stock [20]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Micron Technology achieved record revenue of $37.4 billion in fiscal 2025, a nearly 50% increase year-over-year, with gross margins expanding by 17 percentage points to 41% [4][20] - Fiscal Q4 revenue was $11.3 billion, up 22% sequentially and 46% year-over-year, marking a quarterly record [20] - Earnings per share (EPS) reached $8.29, reflecting a 538% increase compared to the prior year [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - DRAM revenue in fiscal Q4 was a record $9 billion, up 69% year-over-year, representing 79% of total revenue [20] - NAND revenue for fiscal Q4 was $2.3 billion, down 5% year-over-year but up 5% sequentially [21] - The Cloud Memory Business Unit (CMBU) generated $4.5 billion, accounting for 40% of total revenue, with gross margins of 59% [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Data center business reached a record 56% of total company revenue in fiscal 2025, with gross margins of 52% [10] - The total server units in calendar 2025 are expected to grow approximately 10%, up from previous mid-single-digit growth expectations [9] - Smartphone unit shipment expectations remain unchanged at low single-digit percentage growth in calendar 2025, with an increasing mix of AI-ready smartphones [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Micron is positioned to benefit significantly from AI-driven demand, with a focus on advanced technologies like HBM and 1-gamma DRAM [5][29] - The company plans to continue investing in its manufacturing capabilities, including a new high-volume fab in Idaho and expansion in Japan and Singapore [8][9] - Micron aims to leverage its leadership in advanced technologies to maximize ROI and enhance product mix and profitability [5][10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in strong demand across various end markets, including data centers, traditional servers, and AI applications [10][49] - The company anticipates continued tightness in DRAM supply and improving conditions in the NAND market [18][19] - Fiscal Q1 guidance reflects expectations for record revenue and EPS, with gross margins projected to strengthen [28] Other Important Information - Micron invested $13.8 billion in capital expenditures in fiscal 2025, with expectations for higher spending in fiscal 2026 [19] - The company achieved a significant increase in productivity through AI applications, with improvements in design and manufacturing processes [6] Q&A Session Summary Question: Guidance on revenue split between DRAM and NAND - Management indicated that the first quarter will have a heavier DRAM mix than NAND, with expectations for a 580 basis points sequential margin expansion driven by pricing and strong execution [32] Question: Update on HBM total addressable market (TAM) - Management reiterated the expectation for HBM TAM to reach $100 billion by 2030, with HBM bit CAGR expected to outgrow DRAM CAGR [36] Question: Transition from HBM3E to HBM4 - HBM4 production is expected to ramp in line with customer demand, with first shipments anticipated in the second quarter of 2026 [40] Question: DRAM demand sustainability - Management noted strong demand across AI applications, traditional servers, and smartphones, contributing to a healthy demand-supply environment [49] Question: CapEx breakdown for fiscal 2026 - Management stated that the majority of fiscal 2026 CapEx will be for DRAM-related construction and equipment, with a net CapEx guidance of around $18 billion [51]