严格把控项目质量，盈利质量显著提升。上半年营收152 亿元，同比增长2%；归母净利润25 亿元，同 比增长37%。公司严格执行项目筛选机制和成本管控，重点突破高价值业务,Q2 毛利率回升至42.7%的 较高水平，同比+1.8pct，环比+2.5pct。上半年公司经营活动产生的现金流量净额6.39 亿元，为上市以 来同期最高；上半年收现比达115%，来自国家化债政策的有序推进和公司对项目回款质量持续严格管 控。 受益下游需求向好，三大业务全面增长。1）部分投资者担心国内市场需求，但国内业务营收上半年同 比增长2%至75.53 亿元，其中，政府业务营收同比增长5%至18.5 亿元，Q2 增速升至8%。大交通、水 利、应急、公共民生等领域需求较好。企业业务营收同比增长8%至42.19 亿元，4 月起订单增速较好， 央国企、头部企业成为阶段重点。2）公司海外业务营收同比增长2%至76.28 亿元，下半年有望继续稳 健增长。其中，发达地区市场回暖，增速较快；中东等地城市化进程加速，基建空间广阔，解决方案推 广前景可观。海外业务的分销业务是利润贡献的核心来源。从单纯的产品销售向提供综合解决方案的转 型也带来了增量，大华持 ...

大华股份 002236.SZ 公司研究 | 中报点评 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预测公司 25-27 年每股收益为 1.22/1.31/1.48 元（原 25-26 年预测为 1.31/1.50 元，主要调整了营业收入和毛利率），根据可比公司 26 年平均 21 倍 PE 估值，给予 27.51 元目标价，维持买入评级。 | 三大业务全面增长，深入推进大模型研发 | | --- | 风险提示 核心观点 ⚫ 行业需求不及预期；AI 大模型落地不及预期；海外业务不及预期风险。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 32,218 | 32,181 | 33,704 | 37,208 | 40,691 | | 同比增长 (%) | 5% | -0% | 5% | 10% | 9% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 8,141 | 2,980 | 4,432 | 4,729 | 5,369 | | 同比增长 (%) | 257% | -63% | 4 ...

Financial Performance - Company reported operating revenue of 15.18 billion with a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders reached 2.48 billion, up 36.8% year-on-year [1] - Non-recurring net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.80 billion, reflecting a 1.9% increase year-on-year [1] - In Q2, operating revenue was 8.93 billion, a 2.8% year-on-year increase [1] - Q2 net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.82 billion, showing a significant 46.0% increase year-on-year [1] - Non-recurring net profit for Q2 was 1.29 billion, up 2.5% year-on-year [1] Strategic Initiatives - Company accelerated technology innovation and industry integration, focusing on multi-dimensional perception, artificial intelligence, intelligent computing, data communication, and data-visualization [1] - New products launched include the "Wenshu" and "Tianxi" large model integrated machines, "Wensou" NVR, and "Yingguang 2.0" [1] - Company aims to create highly competitive software and hardware products [1] Industry Focus - Company maintains a focus on specific industries, implementing a comprehensive replication strategy and returning to a large video strategy [1] - Emphasis on high-value and cost-effective products and solutions [1] - In new business products, the company is enhancing resource adaptation and steadily increasing the business scale of advantageous products [1] - Innovation efforts are concentrated on core channels, reinforcing the integration of innovative business with the main business [1] Data Value Proposition - Company is committed to promoting the value realization of data elements, positioning itself as a data resource provider, asset practitioner, and commodity enabler [2] - A dual-driven approach of technology and ecosystem is employed to create solutions covering the entire data lifecycle [2] - Collaboration with ecosystem partners aims to build a prosperous data element market [2] - The integration of multi-dimensional perception, multi-connection, intelligent views, and open platforms is pursued [2] - The goal is to achieve a closed loop from perceptual intelligence to data intelligence and then to business intelligence, supporting efficient urban governance and enterprise digital upgrades [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hikvision (002415.SZ) is "Outperform the Market" [6]. Core Views - The company is experiencing a mild recovery in revenue and net profit in Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 18.53 billion yuan (YoY +4.0%) and net profit at 1.926 billion yuan (YoY +9.44%) [1]. - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with a strategic shift in its domestic business to enhance profitability [3]. - The innovation and overseas business segments are showing strong growth, contributing to over 50% of total revenue in 2024 [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 92.496 billion yuan (YoY +3.53%) and a net profit of 11.977 billion yuan (YoY -15.1%), with a gross margin of 43.83% [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a net cash flow from operating activities increasing by 56.19% [1]. Business Segments - The overseas revenue in 2024 was 31.895 billion yuan, up 10.1%, accounting for 34.48% of total revenue, with significant growth in non-video products [2]. - The innovation business generated 22.484 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 21.2% and representing 24% of total revenue, with notable growth in various segments such as robotics and automotive electronics [2]. Domestic Market Adjustments - The domestic PBG revenue was 13.467 billion yuan in 2024, down 12.29%, affected by local fiscal pressures [3]. - The EBG revenue was 17.651 billion yuan, down 1.09%, while SMBG revenue was 11.971 billion yuan, down 5.58% [3]. - The company is actively managing inventory levels with distributors to promote healthy channel development [3]. Future Outlook - The company expects to maintain operational resilience and long-term growth driven by industry digitalization, with revised net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 13.237 billion, 14.517 billion, and 16.664 billion yuan respectively [4]. - The projected PE ratios for 2025-2027 are 20, 18, and 16 times [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on performance, with a slight increase in revenue but a significant decline in net profit, indicating potential challenges ahead [2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 92.486 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.52% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 11.959 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 15.23%, indicating short-term performance pressure [2]. Group 2: Macro Environment - The manufacturing PMI for February recorded at 50.2%, indicating a return to the expansion zone, with a month-on-month increase of 1.1 percentage points, driven by rapid recovery in demand post-holiday [3]. - The improvement in macro factors that previously suppressed the company's performance and valuation is becoming significant [3]. Group 3: Policy and Security - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the construction of a safer China, which is expected to accelerate security and digital governance projects, potentially benefiting the company's PBG business directly [4]. Group 4: Innovation and Technology - The company is launching a series of products based on multi-modal large models, integrating advanced technology with embedded smart hardware, aiming for broader and more efficient applications across various industries [5]. - The focus on innovative business areas such as edge computing, robotics, and smart connected vehicles is expected to catalyze growth, with overseas business now accounting for over half of total operations [6].