（记者 曾健辉） 截至发稿，润和软件市值为468亿元。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——展望"十五五" | 专访尹艳林：让有钱且愿消费的人顺利消费；个税起征点可 提高，最高边际税率可下调，让有关群体少缴税、多收入 每经AI快讯，润和软件（SZ 300339，收盘价：58.82元）11月17日晚间发布公告称，截至本公告日，润 和投资累计质押股数为2835万股，占其所持股份比例为80.2%。周红卫累计质押股数为1466万股，占其 所持股份比例为58.72%。 2025年1至6月份，润和软件的营业收入构成为：软件业务占比98.99%，其他业务占比1.01%。 ...

Core Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reported that the software industry in China generated a revenue of 1,111.26 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.0% [1] - The total profit of the software industry reached 143.52 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 8.7% [1] - Software exports amounted to 45.94 billion USD, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.6% [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of 15% to 35% [6][12]. Core Insights - The company's performance in Q1-Q3 2025 showed significant recovery, with a year-over-year net profit increase of 66.9% and revenue growth of 27.4% [7]. - The third quarter of 2025 saw a remarkable revenue increase of 75.4% year-over-year, marking a turnaround from a loss in the same quarter of the previous year [7][10]. - The company is benefiting from a large-scale medical equipment update policy in China, which has led to a 30% increase in the public bidding market for medical devices [10]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 45.1%, a slight decrease of 1.2 percentage points year-over-year, attributed to changes in product mix [10]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, the company is projected to achieve a net profit of RMB 1,878 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 48.79% [9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at RMB 2.28, with a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 64.33 [9]. - The company expects to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with net profits projected to reach RMB 2,290 million in 2026 and RMB 2,706 million in 2027 [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's research report highlights the market's focus on IBM's third-quarter software business performance and the company's guidance for full-year free cash flow [1] Software Business Performance - Despite facing tougher year-over-year comparisons, organic growth in IBM's software business accelerated in the third quarter, which is seen as a positive signal [1] Free Cash Flow Guidance - Morgan Stanley expects IBM's management to reaffirm its guidance of over $13.5 billion in free cash flow for 2025, with the firm estimating it at $13.9 billion [1] - If IBM achieves approximately $2.3 billion in free cash flow for the third quarter, it would enhance market confidence in reaching the annual free cash flow expectation of $13.8 billion to $14 billion [1] Rating and Target Price - Morgan Stanley maintains a "Market Perform" rating on IBM and raises the target price to $256 [1]

Core Insights - The software and information technology services industry is experiencing a positive operational trend in the first eight months of the year [1] Revenue Performance - Software business revenue reached 96,409 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.6% [1] - The total profit of the software industry increased by 13% year-on-year [1] Export Growth - Software business exports amounted to 40.44 billion USD, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.4% [1]

Group 1 - The total software business revenue in China for the first half of 2025 reached 70,585.2 billion yuan, reflecting a cumulative growth of 11.9% [1] - In June 2025, the software business revenue for the month was 14,796.7 billion yuan, showing no year-on-year decline and a month-on-month increase of 12% [1] - The data is sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics, indicating a stable performance in the software industry despite fluctuations [1]

Market Overview - On September 2, A-shares experienced a collective pullback, with the ChiNext Index leading the decline. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3858.13 points, down 0.45%, with a trading volume of 1.2228 trillion yuan. The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12553.84 points, down 2.14%, with a trading volume of 1.6522 trillion yuan. The ChiNext Index closed at 2872.22 points, down 2.85%, with a trading volume of 803.8 billion yuan. The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.875 trillion yuan, an increase of 125 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1]. Sector Performance - In terms of sector performance, the banking, precious metals, robotics, and oil sectors saw the largest gains, while sectors such as CPO, cross-border payments, PCB, and semiconductors experienced the most significant declines [1]. - Gold stocks continued their strong performance, with companies like Western Gold hitting the daily limit. The solid-state battery concept also showed strength, with companies like Dexin Technology reaching the daily limit. The robotics sector saw a rebound in the afternoon, with Zhejiang Rongtai and Top Group hitting the daily limit. Conversely, computing hardware stocks collectively retreated, with Cambridge Technology hitting the daily limit down, and the cryptocurrency sector weakened, with China National Petroleum Capital also hitting the daily limit down [2]. Institutional Insights - According to Jifeng Investment Advisory, the market is currently experiencing a volatile pullback, with the precious metals sector performing well. The overall market trend remains upward, but there is increasing divergence. Future allocations should prioritize high-dividend banks and consumer leaders with low valuations, as these assets provide a safety margin in a tightening liquidity environment. Focus should also be on policy-determined sectors such as infrastructure and life services mentioned in the "14th Five-Year Plan," which are directly supported by policy and have relatively reasonable valuations [4]. - Furuong Fund noted that market sentiment remains high, with daily trading volume exceeding 3 trillion yuan. The technology growth sector, represented by AI computing power, continues to lead, while dividend and micro-trading sectors perform poorly. Concerns about the AI computing power sector are centered around trading congestion, but the fundamentals remain strong. The core strategy should focus on identifying quality targets with expected differences and marginal increments within the growth sectors [5]. Fund Holdings - According to the 2025 fund mid-report, the pharmaceutical, banking, and electronics sectors saw significant increases in fund holdings. In contrast, sectors like power equipment, food and beverage, and coal experienced notable declines. As of the report period, electronics, pharmaceuticals, and power equipment remain the three largest sectors by fund holding value. Notably, Shutaishen, Anglikang, and Weichai Heavy Industry saw the largest increases in fund holding ratios, while Guotai Haitong, Shenghong Technology, and Zijin Mining led in fund holding value growth [6]. Software Industry Performance - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reported that in the first seven months, China's software business revenue reached 83,246 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%. The total profit of the software industry was 10,890 billion yuan, up 12.4% year-on-year. Software product revenue was 18,011 billion yuan, a 10.6% increase, accounting for 21.6% of the total industry revenue. Information technology service revenue was 57,246 billion yuan, up 13.4%, making up 68.8% of the total industry revenue [7]. Robotics Technology - Yushu Technology announced a patent for an immersive robotic remote operation method that allows operators to feel as if they are executing tasks in real-time. This innovation addresses the limitations of existing remote operation solutions, which often lack effective feedback mechanisms and precision. The new method utilizes various models to provide real-time mapping of the operator's actions and generate immersive 3D images for VR devices, significantly enhancing control capabilities and task execution effectiveness [8].

Core Viewpoint - The company has significantly improved its performance in the first half of 2025, with net profit exceeding expectations and cash flow turning positive year-on-year. The continuous rollout of AI large model product lines is expected to become the core growth engine, indicating a positive long-term development outlook for the company [1]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 15.181 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.12%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.476 billion yuan, up 36.80% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.796 billion yuan, a 1.91% increase year-on-year. The comprehensive gross margin was approximately 41.6%, an increase of about 0.34 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2]. - In Q2 alone, the company realized revenue of 8.925 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.76%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.822 billion yuan, up 45.95% year-on-year. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.292 billion yuan, a 2.46% increase year-on-year, indicating an accelerated profit rhythm [2]. Revenue Structure Optimization - The revenue from smart IoT products and solutions was 11.741 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.39%. Software business revenue was 767 million yuan, with a gross margin of 67.12%, an increase of 0.57 percentage points year-on-year. Innovative business revenue reached 3.023 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.83%, becoming a significant driver of revenue and gross margin [3]. - Domestic and overseas revenues each accounted for approximately 50%, with overseas gross margin at 47.58%, significantly higher than the domestic gross margin of 35.58%. The optimization of regional structure has led to an uplift in gross margin [3]. Technological Innovation and Competitive Advantage - The company is accelerating the integration of technological innovation and industrial application, focusing on a multi-dimensional perception, AI, intelligent computing, data communication, and data-visualization technology layout. The rollout of new products such as "Wenshu," "Tianxi Large Model Integrated Machine," "Wensou NVR," and "Yingguang 2.0" continues, penetrating deeply into urban digitalization and enterprise intelligence scenarios [4]. - In the overseas market, the company aims to expand customer scale, stabilize customer structure, and deepen potential country-specific projects, thereby building a healthy and sustainable business ecosystem [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [2][7]. Core Views - The company has shown a recovery in domestic 2B/2G business and stable overseas operations, with a significant portion of revenue coming from international markets [7][8]. - The company reported a revenue of 15.18 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.12%, which aligns with market expectations [7][8]. - The company is focusing on high-quality development strategies, leading to improved cash flow and stable gross margins [7][8]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 34.01 billion yuan, with a projected growth rate of 5.7% [3]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 3.38 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.2% [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.03 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 16 [3]. Revenue Breakdown - The total revenue for the first half of 2025 was 151.81 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 41.61% [8]. - Domestic revenue was 75.53 billion yuan, growing by 2.33%, while overseas revenue was 76.28 billion yuan, with a growth of 1.91% [8]. - The innovative business segment grew by 22.83%, significantly outpacing overall revenue growth [7][8]. Cash Flow and Profitability - Cash inflow from sales was 17.4 billion yuan, an increase of 8.8% year-on-year, indicating improved cash flow management [7][8]. - The gross margin for overseas operations was 47.58%, while domestic operations had a gross margin of 35.58% [8]. - The company is actively reducing low-margin projects, which has positively impacted its financial performance [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company with a target price of 35.63 CNY per share, compared to the current price of 25.62 CNY [1]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in the smart heating sector, leveraging platformization and AI algorithms to enhance its growth trajectory. The acceleration of EMC model deployment, EPC project deliveries, and initial developments in silicon carbide business are expected to strengthen the company's growth logic [1][2]. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 428 million CNY in 2024 to 678 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 58.4%. Net profit is expected to rise from 77 million CNY in 2024 to 162 million CNY in 2025, marking a significant growth of 110.6% [3][6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.56 CNY in 2024 to 1.19 CNY in 2025, with a net asset return rate projected to reach 8.7% in 2025 [3][6]. Revenue and Profitability Forecast - The core business of heating energy-saving system engineering is expected to generate revenue of 1.26 billion CNY in 2024, with anticipated growth rates of 100%, 30%, and 20% for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [10]. - The intelligent modular heat exchange unit business is projected to achieve revenues of 0.76 billion CNY in 2024, with growth rates of 30%, 20%, and 15% for the subsequent years [11]. - The software business is expected to see a dramatic increase in revenue from 0.17 billion CNY in 2024 to 1.02 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 500% [12]. Strategic Development - The company has established a comprehensive smart heating business system that integrates delivery and operation, focusing on energy-saving solutions and system upgrades. The low-carbon smart heating solution exemplifies the company's capabilities in system integration [24][26]. - The company is transitioning from a project-based delivery model to a more productized and standardized approach, enhancing its market resilience [30][31]. Competitive Positioning - The company maintains a high gross margin, consistently above 55%, with a gross margin of 59.69% in 2024, significantly higher than its peers [34]. - The company’s R&D expenditure reached 0.74 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a commitment to technological advancement and competitive positioning in the market [36].