权益、商品、债市如何看？ 1月11日，在"2026年中国首席经济学家论坛年会"上，多位来自券商、资管、期货等机构的首席经济学 家围绕"资本市场与资产展望"展开讨论。在宏观环境、政策取向和市场结构持续变化的背景下，与会人 士普遍认为，未来一至三年中国资产配置的核心逻辑将从"总量博弈"转向"结构演进"，权益资产仍是中 长期主线，商品市场轮动深化，而债券资产在宽松预期与避险需求交织下，或迎来阶段性配置机会。 从制度改革到资产重估：慢牛逻辑正在形成 多位首席经济学家指出，过去两年资本市场制度改革的连续推进，正在改变中国资产定价的底层逻辑。 华西证券首席经济学家刘郁认为，新"国九条"、中长期资金入市、公募基金高质量发展以及保险资金风 险因子调整等一系列制度安排，已共同构建起"严把入口、畅通出口、鼓励回报、引导长期资金"的制度 框架。 在这一背景下，市场最重要的变化并非短期上涨幅度，而是"下限"的逐步确立。"相比判断指数高点， 更关键的是低点能否持续抬升，这将直接影响资本市场对中长期资金的吸引力。"刘郁指出，股指层面 的波动正在收敛，投资者对极端回撤的担忧有所缓解，这为长期资金持有权益资产提供了必要条件。 申万期货首席经 ...

Core Viewpoint - Huabao Futures has become the designated trading firm for the 2025 live trading competition, marking its first participation in this authoritative event, which aims to enhance its corporate image and better serve traders and the real economy [1][2]. Group 1: Company Background and Participation - Huabao Futures, formerly known as Zhonggang Futures, underwent a name change in January 2025 after its controlling shareholder changed to Huabao Investment in September 2023 [1]. - The company focuses on core black products such as iron ore, finished steel, and coking coal, aiming to empower clients in the black industry chain and support high-quality development in the steel metallurgy sector [1]. Group 2: Client Support and Performance - Approximately 40% of Huabao Futures' competition clients come from industrial backgrounds, primarily in steel, coking, and trading sectors, employing a strategy that combines hedging and arbitrage while emphasizing risk control [2]. - The company provides comprehensive support to participants, including market analysis reports, promotional activities, and educational initiatives on options trading, enhancing participants' understanding of margin calculations and position management [2]. Group 3: Investor Education and Future Outlook - The live trading competition serves as an educational platform for investors, with advice emphasizing preparation, risk management, and post-trade analysis [3]. - Looking ahead, Huabao Futures aims to focus on serving the real economy, enhancing core functions, and fostering integration between industry and finance, while also improving its competitive edge in black, non-ferrous, and new energy products [3].