市场基调之变：从政策托底到基本面兑现 "当前商品市场最核心的特征，是'万物通胀'背景下的结构分化与轮动加速。"薛鹤翔开门见山地表示，站在百年维度，通胀回升、中美经济共振以及AI应 用的蓬勃兴起，共同推动商品市场发生深刻变革。曾经单一的品种行情逐渐退出舞台，取而代之的是"金融属性—产业属性"双轮驱动的全新格局。黄金、 工业金属、新能源等品种价格轮番领涨，芝商所保证金的"高频动态调整"成为市场常态，投资者对尾部风险的定价愈发敏感。 回顾2025年，市场呈现出"商品轮动启动、政策持续发力"的鲜明特征，政策托底与预期先行成为主导，商品价格更多地反映稳增长政策与流动性宽松带来 的红利。然而，步入2026年，市场基调迎来本质转变。"2026年是基本面兑现、轮动深化的一年，市场驱动力从'政策驱动'全面转向'供给稀缺+新兴需 求'驱动。"薛鹤翔认为，黄金、工业金属的趋势性行情将延续，特别是铂、锡等品种异军突起，成为新的市场主线。与此同时，保证金的高频调整倒逼市 场"去杠杆"，波动与风控一跃成为市场核心矛盾，投资者必须适应这一全新节奏。 轮动逻辑解码：三重共振催生独特路径 薛鹤翔表示，当前商品市场已完成从黄金到工业金属再到新能 ...

对冲交易 02： "叙事"坍缩之后，铜价仍有支撑 证券研究报告/固收专题报告 2026 年 02 月 05 日 分析师：吕品 执业证书编号：S0740525060003 Email：lvpin@zts.com.cn 分析师：游勇 执业证书编号：S0740524070004 Email：youyong@zts.com.cn 1、《避险资产不避险，债市风景独 好？》2026-02-04 2、《定期存款迁徙，牛市三级火 箭——负债行为深度》2026-02-01 3、《债基和理财的 2025：负债行 为拥抱含权》2026-01-30 报告摘要 年后开门红的金属在 1 月底经历极端行情，在史诗级暴涨之后迎来史诗级回调。 1 月南华综合指数上涨 8.6%，一度高达 11.4%。1 月当月的涨幅就已经超过了去年 1 年。最亮眼的无疑是金属，贵金属和有色的最大涨幅分别高达 47.1%和 13.6%。 相比去年，今年的牛市情绪甚至扩散到去年走熊的能化和黑色品种。它们在 1 月均 录得上涨，单日涨幅一度高达 1.6%和 3.6%。 相关报告 然而，加速上涨的行情却在 1 月底戛然而止，贵金属创出历史最大的跌幅，白银日 内一度下跌 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The report points out that there is a risk of a swing in policy expectations both at home and abroad. Geopolitical tensions are intensifying, and global instability will be the norm. The supply - side risks of commodities and loose monetary policies are decisive factors for rising commodity prices. It also mentions bifurcations in domestic and overseas economic outlooks and suggests investment strategies for different asset classes [1][2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - **Macro**: There is a risk of a swing in policy expectations after domestic important meetings and the Fed's stance adjustment. Attention should be paid to specific domestic policies and Trump's Fed chair candidate. Geopolitical tensions during the New Year holiday may lead to supply - side risks for commodities and support price increases [1]. - **Meso**: There is a divergence in domestic and overseas economic outlooks. The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized consumption promotion and "anti - involution." Trade supported the December economic outlook, with consumption leading the industry recovery, and the persistence of new orders' resilience needs attention [2]. - **Micro**: Focus on high - certainty sectors such as non - ferrous metals and precious metals, and also look for opportunities in low - valued commodity price hikes. For non - ferrous metals, aluminum is a preferred choice. Energy prices are affected by geopolitical events and future supply expectations. In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of some varieties is worth noting. For agricultural products, weather and short - term pig diseases should be monitored. For precious metals, consider buying on dips [3]. Strategy - **Commodities and Stock Index Futures**: Allocate more on dips for stock indices, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals [4]. Economic Heat Maps - **US Economic Heat Map**: In 2025, different economic indicators showed various trends. Consumption contributed 66.8% to GDP, investment 26.1%, and fiscal 20.3%. Indicators such as GDP growth, employment, inflation, and consumption had their own fluctuations [7]. - **European Economic Heat Map**: In 2025, GDP growth, industrial confidence, investment, employment, consumption, inflation, trade, and credit indicators all had different trends. For example, the inflation rate was around 2% - 2.5% [8]. - **Chinese Economic Heat Map**: In 2025, net exports contributed 30.3% to GDP, investment 25.2%, and consumption 44.5%. GDP growth, investment in different sectors, consumption, inflation, and financial indicators showed their own characteristics. For instance, the real estate investment growth rate was negative [9].