Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for JD Group with a target price range of HKD 125 to 150, while the current stock price is HKD 117.4 [2][5]. Core Insights - JD Group's total revenue is expected to see a slight year-on-year increase in Q4 2025, with a projected Non-GAAP net profit of approximately 480 million yuan [1][5]. - The report highlights that the decline in revenue growth for the electric category is due to the reduction of national subsidies and a high comparative base from the previous year, while daily necessities and third-party (3P) revenues are expected to maintain double-digit growth [1][5]. - The report expresses a long-term positive outlook on the company's growth resilience under its self-operated model and strong supply chain bargaining power, which is expected to enhance profit margins [1][5]. Financial Data and Valuation - For the fiscal years 2023 to 2027, the projected main revenue (in million yuan) is as follows: 1,084,662 (2023), 1,158,819 (2024), 1,305,167 (2025E), 1,361,675 (2026E), and 1,419,895 (2027E), with year-on-year growth rates of 4%, 7%, 13%, 4%, and 4% respectively [2][6]. - The Non-GAAP net profit projections are: 35,200 (2023), 47,827 (2024), 26,428 (2025E), 32,720 (2026E), and 50,951 (2027E), with significant fluctuations in growth rates [2][6]. - The report indicates a P/E ratio forecast of 8.7 (2023), 6.4 (2024), 11.6 (2025E), 9.4 (2026E), and 6.0 (2027E) [2][9]. Stock Performance - The stock has shown an absolute performance of 9.1% over the past month, 17.6% over six months, and 20.0% over the past year [4]. - Relative performance indicates a 6.0% outperformance over one month, 2.4% over six months, but a 9.8% underperformance over the past year [4]. Business Segment Insights - The report notes that the new business segment is expected to reduce losses in Q4, with improvements in delivery volume and user experience (UE) for the food delivery service [1][5]. - The report anticipates that the food delivery business will continue to improve in 2026, with a focus on enhancing user experience [1][5]. Shareholder Information - The total share capital is 3,188 million shares, with 2,865 million shares listed in Hong Kong [3]. - The major shareholder, Max Smart Limited, holds a 9.6007% stake in the company [3]. Financial Ratios - The report provides key financial ratios, including a return on equity (ROE) of 17.8% and a debt-to-asset ratio of 57.3% [3][9]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for the years 2023 to 2027 are 8.34, 14.27, 5.85, 9.26, and 14.87 respectively [2][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5][9] Core Insights - The company is expected to face pressure on its revenue growth due to a high base from national subsidies and increased losses from new business ventures. The forecast for 2025-2027 revenue has been adjusted to 1,304/1,348/1,423 billion yuan, with adjusted net profit estimates of 263/225/442 billion yuan [3][8][9] - The target market value is set at 502.3 billion yuan, corresponding to a target share price of 173.32 HKD, based on a 11X PE valuation for 2026 [3][9] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1,304 billion yuan (2025), 1,348 billion yuan (2026), and 1,423 billion yuan (2027), with year-on-year growth rates of 12.53%, 3.37%, and 5.58% respectively [4][9] - Adjusted net profit estimates are 263 billion yuan (2025), 225 billion yuan (2026), and 442 billion yuan (2027), reflecting a decrease from previous forecasts due to anticipated losses in new business segments [3][9] - The company’s gross margin is expected to be 15.7% in 2025, 15.4% in 2026, and 16.1% in 2027, indicating a slight improvement over the forecast period [4][9] Business Segment Performance - The company anticipates a significant decline in its electrical appliance revenue in Q4 2025, projecting a revenue of 1,497.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.0% [8] - The daily necessities segment is expected to maintain double-digit growth, with projected revenue of 1,180.5 billion yuan in Q4 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.5% [8] - New business revenue is projected to reach 135.1 billion yuan in Q4 2025, with an operating loss of 168.1 billion yuan, indicating a slight increase in losses due to higher investments in 京喜 and international business [8][9]

Group 1: Overall Market Performance - The total online retail sales during the 618 shopping festival reached nearly 2 trillion yuan, marking a new high with a year-on-year growth of approximately 9.8% [1] - Major platforms experienced positive year-on-year growth in online retail sales, with JD.com leading the industry with a growth rate of 17% [1] Group 2: 3C Digital Products - Sales of smart 3C digital products, including AI phones, AI computers, and AI glasses, saw rapid growth, with year-on-year increases exceeding 100% [3] - JD.com announced an upgraded strategy for launching new 3C digital products, integrating 3 billion yuan in resources to meet diverse consumer demands, achieving a sales share of 54.7% in this category during the 618 period [3][6] Group 3: Home Appliances - The home appliance sector experienced significant growth driven by trade-in programs and e-commerce platform discounts, with JD.com capturing over 50% of the market share [7] - In the major appliance segment, JD.com holds a market share of 52.4%, enhancing its logistics and service offerings to boost sales [10] Group 4: Apparel and Fashion - JD.com led the apparel sector with a year-on-year growth rate of 26.5%, significantly outperforming competitors by over 10 percentage points [11] - Consumer perception of JD.com's apparel category has improved, with nearly 70% preferring to purchase clothing from JD.com due to its enhanced brand variety and quality assurance [14]

Core Viewpoint - JD.com reported its best quarterly performance since 2022, with a revenue increase of 15.8% year-on-year to 301.1 billion yuan, driven by strong growth in its core categories of 3C and daily necessities [1][4]. Financial Performance - JD.com's revenue and profit both saw significant year-on-year growth, marking the highest growth rates in the past three years. The core retail business revenue grew by 16.31% to 263.845 billion yuan, supported by effective cost control [4][5]. - The operating profit for the quarter increased by 31.4% to 11.7 billion yuan, with the operating profit margin rising from 3% to 3.5% [1][4]. Strategic Initiatives - Liu Qiangdong's return to the front lines has led to a focus on the food delivery and instant retail sectors, with no short-term revenue or profit targets set for these new initiatives [2][10]. - JD.com is facing intense competition in the e-commerce market, particularly from Alibaba, Pinduoduo, and Douyin, which are aggressively targeting JD's core categories [2][10]. Cost Management - Despite an increase in overall expenses, JD.com managed to keep the growth of most cost items below the revenue growth rate, with operating costs rising by 15% to 253.2 billion yuan [8]. - The company is focusing on improving efficiency through AI and performance assessment reforms [8]. Market Challenges - JD.com is under pressure from market share erosion by competitors like Pinduoduo and Douyin, which are targeting key categories such as 3C and beauty products [10][11]. - The company aims to attract new core users and increase the purchase frequency of existing users through new business initiatives [10][11]. Future Outlook - The success of new business ventures, such as food delivery, is crucial for JD.com to expand its market share and enhance user retention [11]. - Liu Qiangdong's personal involvement in the food delivery sector is seen as a strategy to leverage his influence for rapid business integration and market penetration [11].