国补高基数带电承压，开拓新业务亏损加 大 京东集团-SW 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们调整盈利预测，预测公司 2025-2027 年收入为 13040/13479/14230 亿元（原 2025-2027 年预测为 13382/14151/14981 亿元），经调整归母净利润为 263/225/442 亿元（原 2025-2027 年预测为 271/438/525 亿元）。参考可比公司给 予 2026 年 11X PE 估值，加上公司股权投资价值计算得公司目标市值为 5023 亿 元，对应每股股价 173.32 港元（人民币兑港币汇率 1.100），维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：外卖亏损收缩不及预期，以旧换新政策效果不及预期，行业竞争加剧。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 1,084,662 | 1,158,819 | 1,303,975 | 1,347,877 | 1,423,025 | | 同比增 ...

Group 1: Overall Market Performance - The total online retail sales during the 618 shopping festival reached nearly 2 trillion yuan, marking a new high with a year-on-year growth of approximately 9.8% [1] - Major platforms experienced positive year-on-year growth in online retail sales, with JD.com leading the industry with a growth rate of 17% [1] Group 2: 3C Digital Products - Sales of smart 3C digital products, including AI phones, AI computers, and AI glasses, saw rapid growth, with year-on-year increases exceeding 100% [3] - JD.com announced an upgraded strategy for launching new 3C digital products, integrating 3 billion yuan in resources to meet diverse consumer demands, achieving a sales share of 54.7% in this category during the 618 period [3][6] Group 3: Home Appliances - The home appliance sector experienced significant growth driven by trade-in programs and e-commerce platform discounts, with JD.com capturing over 50% of the market share [7] - In the major appliance segment, JD.com holds a market share of 52.4%, enhancing its logistics and service offerings to boost sales [10] Group 4: Apparel and Fashion - JD.com led the apparel sector with a year-on-year growth rate of 26.5%, significantly outperforming competitors by over 10 percentage points [11] - Consumer perception of JD.com's apparel category has improved, with nearly 70% preferring to purchase clothing from JD.com due to its enhanced brand variety and quality assurance [14]

Core Viewpoint - JD.com reported its best quarterly performance since 2022, with a revenue increase of 15.8% year-on-year to 301.1 billion yuan, driven by strong growth in its core categories of 3C and daily necessities [1][4]. Financial Performance - JD.com's revenue and profit both saw significant year-on-year growth, marking the highest growth rates in the past three years. The core retail business revenue grew by 16.31% to 263.845 billion yuan, supported by effective cost control [4][5]. - The operating profit for the quarter increased by 31.4% to 11.7 billion yuan, with the operating profit margin rising from 3% to 3.5% [1][4]. Strategic Initiatives - Liu Qiangdong's return to the front lines has led to a focus on the food delivery and instant retail sectors, with no short-term revenue or profit targets set for these new initiatives [2][10]. - JD.com is facing intense competition in the e-commerce market, particularly from Alibaba, Pinduoduo, and Douyin, which are aggressively targeting JD's core categories [2][10]. Cost Management - Despite an increase in overall expenses, JD.com managed to keep the growth of most cost items below the revenue growth rate, with operating costs rising by 15% to 253.2 billion yuan [8]. - The company is focusing on improving efficiency through AI and performance assessment reforms [8]. Market Challenges - JD.com is under pressure from market share erosion by competitors like Pinduoduo and Douyin, which are targeting key categories such as 3C and beauty products [10][11]. - The company aims to attract new core users and increase the purchase frequency of existing users through new business initiatives [10][11]. Future Outlook - The success of new business ventures, such as food delivery, is crucial for JD.com to expand its market share and enhance user retention [11]. - Liu Qiangdong's personal involvement in the food delivery sector is seen as a strategy to leverage his influence for rapid business integration and market penetration [11].