策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2026 年 1 月 9 日 策略点评 当前时点，如何看待" 2X " ERP 压力位 全 A 虽临 2X 估值极值压制，但随阈值动态抬升与盈利驱动，全年仍具双位 数空间。 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：徐亚 （8621）20328506 ya.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521070003 历史回溯：理解"2X"作为极端风险阈值的指标意义。股权风险溢价 （ERP）的两倍标准差（2X）上沿是衡量 A 股是否进入"极致泡沫化" 的关键阈值 。从历史长周期来看，万得全 A 指数仅在 2007 年（持续 102 个交易日）和 2015 年（持续 157 个交易日）这两次大牛市中真正实现过 突破 。截至 2026 年 1 月 7 日，万得全 A 的 ERP 为 2.3%，距离 2.18%的 "2X"压力线仅差 0.12% 。这意味着在不考虑盈利 ...

中化新网讯12月28日，由中国制造强国年会组委会、中制智库主办的第十届中国制造强国年会在京召 开。400余位来自制造业领域的嘉宾在会上共同探讨"十五五"时期中国制造业高质量发展之路，加速推 进制造业升级。 国家制造强国建设战略咨询委员会委员、工业和信息化部原副部长、第十三届全国政协经济委员会副主 任刘利华认为，"十五五"期间，推动制造业实现从重点突破向全面领先的战略性跨越，应聚焦四个方 面：一是夯实产业基础，推进产业基础高级化和产业链现代化，完善"工业强基"扶持机制；二是加快高 水平科技自立自强；三是培育新质生产力，推进新型工业化；四是制定下一个十年制造强国行动纲领。 "中国制造业升级的关键在于发展自主可控、有竞争力的高端装备产业。"科技部原副部长，季华实验室 理事长、主任曹健林认为，破解制造业升级难题需要组织用装备、造装备和关键技术研发三支队伍长期 密切合作，并在重点产业聚集区，发展能够统筹全产业链需求的"总体部型"研发机构，从而系统性地推 动高端装备创新，为发展新质生产力奠定坚实基础。 国家制造强国建设战略咨询委员会委员、国家重大技术装备专家委员会委员、国家产业基础专家委员会 副主任屈贤明表示，未来十年， ...

Core Insights - The essence of growth investment is to adapt to changes, requiring continuous learning and understanding of industry trends [1][2] - Liu Bin's investment strategy is based on deep industry research, focusing on long-term growth and the combination of cyclical and growth sectors [1][2] Investment Philosophy - Liu Bin believes that short-term market pricing is often efficient, but there are discrepancies in long-term industry trend understanding, leading to early investment opportunities [2] - The investment portfolio is characterized by a "large-cap growth" style, avoiding stocks with a market capitalization below 100 billion [2] - Liu Bin emphasizes the importance of industry penetration rates and technological advancements, identifying significant returns during phases of rising penetration [2] Portfolio Management - The investment approach includes diversifying across multiple sectors with favorable economic conditions to capture various industry trends [3] - Liu Bin maintains a balanced allocation across different industry stages, with the top ten sectors comprising around 60% of the portfolio [3] Focus on Core Competitiveness - The future source of excess returns is expected to come from the continuous release of engineer dividends, with China having advantages in engineer numbers and R&D costs [4] - R&D investment is a critical metric for stock selection, alongside cost control capabilities, which encompass supply chain management and production efficiency [5] Sector Focus - Liu Bin's expertise lies in the "technology manufacturing" sector, with a focus on hard tech industries such as TMT, electronics, new energy, and automotive [6] - The automotive sector, particularly in electric vehicles, is seen as a significant growth area, with Chinese brands poised for substantial profits [6] - The AI industry is also a key focus, with an emphasis on domestic computing power and storage, as well as the potential of robotics as a transformative industry [7]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the Yunnan Advanced Manufacturing Equity Investment Mother Fund marks a significant step in supporting the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries and fostering strategic emerging industries in Yunnan Province [1] Group 1: Fund Overview - The fund has been successfully registered with the Asset Management Association of China, indicating its official launch [1] - Managed by Yunnan Chantuo Equity Investment Fund Management Co., Ltd., the fund aims to invest in various sectors [1] Group 2: Investment Focus - Investment areas include the deep processing of non-ferrous metals, particularly aluminum and copper, as well as new materials in precious metals like indium, germanium, and platinum [1] - The fund will also focus on high-efficiency and high-value utilization of phosphorus resources for new energy batteries and fine phosphorus chemical industries [1] - Additional sectors of interest include high-end equipment manufacturing, green food, and deep processing of traditional Chinese medicine [1] - The fund aims to support the cultivation of manufacturing champions and specialized "little giant" enterprises [1]

Core Insights - The rise of "Guochao" products reflects a blend of high aesthetics, creativity, and deep cultural roots, appealing to the younger generation [1][3] - A survey indicates that 65.3% of young respondents rated their satisfaction with Guochao products at 8 or above on a scale of 10, with 12.8% giving a perfect score [1] - There is a growing expectation for Guochao products to enhance practicality and variety, moving beyond mere aesthetics to become more integrated into daily life [2][3] Consumer Preferences - 60.7% of young respondents desire more "tech-driven" and "green" Guochao products, while 58.1% look for innovative consumption scenarios like immersive offline experience stores [2] - 57.8% of respondents want deeper cultural integration, merging Chinese aesthetics and storytelling into product designs [2] Industry Development - The Guochao phenomenon is seen as a significant representation of China's manufacturing upgrade and youth cultural confidence, evolving from a consumer trend to a cultural phenomenon [3] - Experts suggest that to promote Guochao development, brands should collaborate with cultural institutions and universities to explore traditional cultural resources for product design [3] - There is a call for increased R&D investment to combine modern technology with traditional culture, enhancing product practicality and consumer experience [3] Demographics - Among surveyed youth, 42.4% are male and 57.6% are female, with 26.7% being post-2000s, 24.1% post-1995, and 22.7% post-1990 [4] - The survey participants include 40.1% from first-tier cities, 35.2% from second-tier cities, and 18.9% from third and fourth-tier cities [4]

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry in China is currently facing supply-demand contradictions, but with the implementation of "stabilizing growth" policies, steel demand is expected to remain stable or slightly increase, supported by real estate stabilization, steady infrastructure investment, continuous manufacturing development, and high steel exports [1] Group 1: Production and Demand - In October, China's stainless steel crude steel production reached 3.6244 million tons, an increase of 78,700 tons month-on-month, representing a growth of 2.22% [1] - The overall profit of the steel industry is declining, but the total steel demand is anticipated to remain stable due to various supportive factors [1] Group 2: Supply and Industry Structure - The supply side is expected to tighten under the influence of policy expectations, leading to increased industry concentration [1] - The macro trend of high-quality economic development and new productive forces is expected to benefit high-end steel products, particularly those with high barriers and added value [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The steel industry is expected to see a stable and improving industrial pattern, with some companies currently undervalued, presenting structural investment opportunities [1] - Companies with high gross margins and strong cost control, as well as leading steel enterprises benefiting from economies of scale, are likely to have valuation recovery opportunities in the future [1] Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Under the ongoing supply-side "anti-involution," steel production capacity is concentrating on quality leading companies [1] - On the demand side, special steel is expected to benefit from manufacturing upgrades and AI transformation, while leading companies in the ordinary steel sector may benefit from improvements in the industry supply-demand structure in the medium to long term [1]

Core Insights - Xiaomi's founder Lei Jun predicts that humanoid robots will be widely deployed in Xiaomi factories within the next five years, emphasizing that all industries should leverage AI technology [1][3] - The demand for humanoid robots in home settings is expected to surpass that in industrial applications, indicating a significant market potential [1][5] Industrial Scene - Xiaomi's advancements in AI-enabled manufacturing, particularly in its automotive factory, demonstrate the transformative value of AI in manufacturing, achieving a tenfold increase in efficiency for certain tasks [3][4] - The industrial sector is seen as the primary area for the initial deployment of humanoid robots, addressing challenges such as rising labor costs and labor shortages in hazardous jobs [4][6] - Industry forecasts suggest that the market for industrial humanoid robots could exceed 100 billion in the next 5-10 years, with applications expanding from simple tasks to more complex collaborative work [4][6] Home Scene - The home environment presents a significant market opportunity for humanoid robots, but current technological limitations pose challenges for commercialization [5][6] - Mainstream humanoid robots still struggle with tasks requiring advanced navigation, object manipulation, and natural language interaction, hindering their widespread adoption in households [5][6] - The market for household humanoid robots is projected to evolve from single-function devices to multifunctional smart home hubs over the next decade, potentially reaching a market size of 1 trillion [5][6] Industry Chain - The development of humanoid robots is heavily reliant on the supply chain, including key components like servo motors, sensors, and AI algorithms [6][7] - Significant progress has been made in the localization of core components in China, which reduces R&D costs and supports domestic companies like Xiaomi in their humanoid robot initiatives [6][7] - The entry of leading companies into the humanoid robot space is expected to stimulate technological innovation across the industry chain, creating a positive feedback loop that accelerates industry maturity [6][7] Technological Development - The humanoid robot industry is on the verge of significant advancements, driven by the need for automation in manufacturing and ongoing breakthroughs in core technologies [7] - Despite existing challenges, the scaling of industrial applications is imminent, and the commercialization of household robots is anticipated to become a reality as technology continues to evolve [7]

Core Viewpoint - The mechanical industry is experiencing a dual opportunity of technological iteration and demand expansion, becoming a core pillar for high-quality development of the real economy [1] Group 1: Mechanical Industry Overview - Domestic companies are accelerating breakthroughs in key technologies such as high-end machine tools and industrial robots, leading to a simultaneous increase in both volume and price [1] - The 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizes high-level technological self-reliance and control over the industrial chain, indicating strong future support for the basic components industry [1] - The "Mechanical Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" targets an average annual revenue growth rate of 3.5%, aiming to exceed 10 trillion yuan [1] Group 2: Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery sector is characterized by significant cyclical attributes, with equipment updates and export expansion being the main demand drivers [3] - The new equipment update cycle is expected to begin in 2025, following the previous cycle from 2016 to 2021, and is projected to last until 2030 [3] - In Q3 2025, the revenue of the engineering machinery sector reached 2,449.72 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11.49% [6] Group 3: Shipbuilding Industry - In the first nine months of 2025, China's shipbuilding industry completed a total of 38.53 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.0% [7] - The industry maintains a leading global position, with a 53.8% share of global completed shipbuilding volume [7] - The shipbuilding sector's revenue in Q3 2025 was 1,191.5 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.57% [10] Group 4: Lithium Battery Equipment - The lithium battery equipment sector is witnessing a recovery in demand, driven by the explosive growth in domestic and international energy storage markets [14] - In Q3 2025, the revenue of the lithium battery equipment sector reached 263.32 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 8.75% [17] - The industry is transitioning from a phase of "scale expansion" to "quality improvement," supported by effective policies and expanding demand [14] Group 5: Investment Outlook - The engineering machinery sector is expected to continue its recovery in 2025, with a confirmed bottom and the initiation of an equipment update cycle [21] - The shipbuilding industry is in a prolonged recovery phase, with a focus on high-value orders and structural optimization [21] - The lithium battery equipment sector is benefiting from the growth of new energy vehicles and energy storage demand, indicating a reversal in supply and demand dynamics [21]

Core Insights - The article analyzes how Chinese industry has surpassed Germany in areas where Germany traditionally excelled, leveraging advantages in price, quality, and speed, while Germany faces internal and external challenges [1][3][5] Group 1: German Industrial Decline - Germany, once a leader in manufacturing, is now experiencing economic stagnation, with industrial output stuck at 2005 levels for nearly two decades [3][5] - The once-proud advantages of German industry have turned into liabilities, leading to a significant decline in competitiveness [3][5] - In 2025, Germany experienced a historic trade deficit with China in capital goods for the first time since 2008, marking a critical shift in the industrial landscape [5][7] Group 2: Chinese Competitive Edge - Over the past six years, China's machinery exports to Europe have nearly doubled, with expectations to exceed €50 billion this year [7] - Chinese brands are increasingly dominating the automotive market in China, putting pressure on traditional German luxury brands like Audi and Porsche [7][9] - Chinese manufacturers are now competing directly in Germany's core sectors, offering products at significantly lower prices while maintaining comparable quality [9][11] Group 3: Challenges Facing German Industry - External pressures include trade barriers from the U.S. and rising energy costs, which have severely impacted German exports and profitability [13][15] - Internal challenges consist of high labor costs, bureaucratic inefficiencies, and a rigid innovation system that fails to adapt to new technologies [15][17] - Germany's attempts to reduce reliance on Chinese rare earth materials have been unsuccessful, further complicating its industrial recovery [17][19] Group 4: Future Outlook - The article suggests that Germany's industrial decline is not a temporary setback but a result of systemic issues that require urgent attention [19][21] - There is a call for Germany and Europe to reassess their industrial policies, increase innovation investments, and learn from China's competitive strategies [21][23] - The ongoing global competition emphasizes the need for continuous improvement and adaptation to avoid being left behind [23]

Group 1: Consumer Trends - The jewelry sector, particularly gold, saw a significant year-on-year increase of 37.6% in October, marking it as a standout performer in consumer spending [2] - The surge in gold purchases is attributed to a more than 50% increase in international gold prices this year, currently stabilizing above $4,100 per ounce, leading consumers to invest in gold as a safe asset [4] - Overall retail sales in October increased by 2.9% year-on-year, with rural consumption growing at a faster rate of 4.1% compared to urban areas, indicating a shift in spending patterns [9] Group 2: Industrial and Manufacturing Insights - The industrial output for October rose by 4.9% year-on-year, with notable growth in equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing at 8% and 7.2% respectively, outpacing overall industrial growth [11] - The manufacturing sector is transitioning towards high-tech production, as evidenced by increased investments in smart equipment and advanced production lines [12] Group 3: Investment and Economic Challenges - Fixed asset investment decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, primarily due to a 14.7% drop in real estate development investment, highlighting ongoing challenges in the property market [14] - Excluding the real estate sector, national investment actually increased by 1.7%, with manufacturing investments continuing to grow [17] Group 4: Trade and Export Dynamics - In October, the total value of imports and exports rose by 0.1% year-on-year, with imports increasing by 1.4%, indicating a rise in domestic demand [20] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.1% year-on-year, but the rate of decline has slowed, suggesting a potential easing of deflationary pressures in the industrial sector [21] Group 5: Market Performance - The stock market has recently surpassed the 4,000-point mark, reflecting increased investor confidence and a shift of funds from savings to equity investments [23]