Core Insights - The trend of young consumers moving away from "sugar-free" products is evident, with a noticeable slowdown in the growth of sugar-free tea sales and a decline in the popularity of sugar substitutes [5][12][14] Industry Overview - Sugar-free tea sales growth has significantly decreased, with sales growth rates from April to September 2023 being 3.9%, 7%, 19.9%, 19.5%, 8.5%, and 6.3%, all lower than the same periods in the previous year [2] - The average price of sugar-free tea has been on the rise, increasing from 5.1 yuan per piece in 2023 to 5.6 yuan per piece by 2025, indicating that despite higher prices, total sales growth is slowing [2] - The market is dominated by established brands like Nongfu Spring and Suntory, which together hold 87.3% market share as of September 2023, up 6.4% from the previous year [7] - The second-tier brands' market share has decreased from 11.3% to 7.4%, while the third-tier brands' share has shrunk from 5.1% to 3.4%, highlighting the intensifying head effect in the industry [7][9] Consumer Behavior - The shift in consumer preferences indicates that the younger generation is moving away from extreme health consciousness towards a more indulgent lifestyle, seeking comfort in sugary beverages [5][12] - The demand for sugar substitutes, particularly erythritol, has also faced challenges, with a reported oversupply in the market as of May 2023, where domestic production capacity reached 380,000 tons per year against a global demand of only 173,000 tons [2][14] Product Innovation - There has been a lack of new hit products in the sugar-free tea market, with established products like unsweetened oolong and jasmine tea dominating nearly 70% of the market share [9] - The innovation in the sugar-free tea sector has stagnated, with brands focusing on minor innovations around existing products rather than developing new ones, leading to potential homogenization and price competition [9][11] - In contrast, the sugary tea segment has seen a surge in new product launches, with sugary tea products outnumbering sugar-free tea products significantly in recent months [10] Supplier Challenges - Suppliers of sugar substitutes are experiencing significant operational pressures, with major companies like San Yuan Bio reporting a 7.54% decline in total revenue and a 16.8% drop in net profit for the first three quarters of the year [14][19] - The industry is facing a broader trend of declining demand, leading to increased competition and financial strain on suppliers, many of whom are exploring alternative products and markets to mitigate losses [17][19]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the return of white sugar to beverage ingredient lists, driven by an upgrade in consumer health awareness and a demand for controllable taste experiences [4][27]. Group 1: Market Trends - The beverage market has seen a significant shift with the rise of sugar-free drinks, initiated by brands like Yuanqi Forest in 2018, which led to a decline in the presence of white sugar in ingredient lists [9][15]. - However, in the recent beverage season, traditional beverage companies have reintroduced white sugar in their products, indicating a change in consumer preferences towards a balance of taste and health [8][15]. - The global largest erythritol manufacturer, San Yuan Bio (301206.SZ), saw its erythritol revenue peak at 1.567 billion yuan in 2021, but it is projected to drop to 515 million yuan in 2024 due to an oversupply in the market [12][13]. Group 2: Consumer Preferences - Consumers are now more inclined to accept the presence of white sugar in beverages, as seen with brands like Yuanqi Forest and Nongfu Spring launching new products that contain white sugar while promoting low-sugar options [15][17]. - The trend reflects a shift from an absolute avoidance of sugar to a preference for lower sugar content that still delivers enjoyable taste experiences [27][28]. - Brands are strategically reducing serving sizes to manage sugar intake while still offering products that satisfy taste preferences, indicating a nuanced approach to sugar consumption [18][22]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The sugar tea market, valued at nearly 90 billion yuan, is experiencing a competitive yet stable environment, with traditional beverage companies maintaining significant market shares [32][35]. - Major players like Master Kong, Uni-President, and Nongfu Spring dominate the market, collectively holding over 69% of the market share, with growth rates exceeding 5% [35][36]. - The introduction of new products in the sugar tea category continues to outpace sugar-free options, suggesting a sustained consumer interest in traditional flavors [34][35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [5]. Core Insights - The implementation of the childcare subsidy policy is expected to stimulate growth in the food and beverage sector, particularly benefiting the infant formula and dairy product markets [4]. - The report highlights three main investment themes in the liquor segment: strong leading brands, sustained regional advantages, and recovery-driven elastic stocks [1][2]. - In the beer and beverage segment, Budweiser faces sales pressure but is seeing price recovery, while the sugary tea category is gaining market share during peak seasons [3]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - Leading brands such as Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao dominate the global rankings, with Moutai valued at $58.4 billion, maintaining its position as the most valuable liquor brand globally [2]. - The liquor sector is transitioning from scale growth to high-quality development, with a focus on brand strength and market positioning [2]. Beer and Beverage Sector - Budweiser's Q2 2025 results show a revenue decline of 3.9% and a profit drop of 31.1%, with a notable 6.2% decrease in sales volume [3]. - The sugary tea segment is experiencing a resurgence, with brands like Kang Shifu and Uni-President maintaining leading positions, and sales of Yuanqi Forest's iced tea growing by 53.9% year-on-year [3]. Food Sector - The national childcare subsidy program, effective from January 1, 2025, is projected to enhance birth rates and subsequently increase demand for dairy products [4]. - New product launches by companies like Qiaqia and Ximai are aimed at expanding market presence and tapping into health-oriented consumer trends [4][7].

Core Viewpoint - The consumption industry in China has undergone significant changes and innovations over the past few years, leading to a unique economic structure that balances both consumption and production. The evolution of consumer demand, product innovation, and management innovation is driven by factors such as demand stratification, technological iteration, the rise of domestic brands, and emotional value needs [1][3]. Macro Observations - The "three-phase overlap" in China will ultimately create a unique economy that emphasizes both consumption and production. Changes in population dynamics, such as aging and smaller family units, influence different consumption categories [5][6]. - By the end of 2023, household consumption expenditure is expected to account for less than 40% of GDP, but this trend is on the rise due to a decrease in the weight of real estate in household asset allocation [6][8]. - China's high savings rate has seen household savings increase from over 90 trillion to nearly 160 trillion in the past five years, improving the overall asset-liability structure and cash flow of households [8]. - The structural changes in population demographics, particularly the rise of Generation Z as a consumer force, are significantly impacting demand structures and consumption patterns [8][9]. - The unique structure of the Chinese market, being both the largest producer and the second-largest consumer, allows for distinctive business model evolution, characterized by integrated commercial models that combine multiple brands and products [9][10]. Technological Progress and Management Innovation - Technological advancements are driving the integration of business models and management innovations, allowing for rapid response and product iteration in the consumer services sector [10][12]. - The digital capabilities of companies in China enable them to analyze consumer behavior data effectively, leading to optimized operations and improved profitability [12][13]. - Over time, technological progress will amplify differences in corporate capabilities and accelerate the differentiation among companies within the same industry [13]. Industry Observations and Case Studies - Consumption trends in China reflect a coexistence of upgrading, downgrading, and stratification, with different consumer segments experiencing varying trends [15][16]. - International brands are losing their allure in China, while domestic brands are gaining market share in sectors like cosmetics and durable goods due to improved product quality and consumer perception [18][19]. - The rise of domestic brands in high-end markets, such as automobiles, indicates a shift in consumer preferences and a growing confidence in local products [19]. - The industrialization of IP (intellectual property) in China is supported by a strong talent pool in software engineering and design, leading to significant advancements in various sectors [20][21]. - The penetration and concentration of the chain service industry in China are expected to increase, with the current penetration rate in the hotel industry being only around 30%, significantly lower than in developed countries [22][23]. Conclusion - Despite recent challenges in the consumption industry, there are abundant investment opportunities across various segments as the economy gradually recovers and new consumption patterns emerge. China is poised to become a unique market that balances manufacturing and consumption, with significant potential for domestic brands to expand both locally and internationally [24].