Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of the U.S. government's decision to impose high tariffs on imports from over 180 countries, marking a critical moment in modern trade history and raising concerns about the stability of the global trade system [1][3]. Trade Policy and Economic Impact - The U.S. has raised tariffs to an average of 15%, with only a few allies like the UK and Japan receiving a lower rate of 10% due to special agreements [1]. - Major trading partners such as China, Mexico, and Canada are excluded from a 90-day grace period, facing immediate tariff impacts [3]. - The U.S. labor market shows signs of weakness, with only 75,000 new jobs added, significantly below the expected 100,000, and previous months' data revised down by a total of 258,000 jobs [3][5]. Economic Forecasts and Predictions - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 3.3% to 2.8% and increased the probability of a U.S. recession from 27% to 40% [7]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that the increase in effective tariffs could reduce U.S. GDP growth from 2.5% in 2024 to 0.5% in 2025 [7]. - A study from Yale indicates that U.S. households may face an additional $2,400 in annual expenses due to tariffs, with clothing prices potentially rising by 38% [7]. Global Reactions and Supply Chain Changes - In response to U.S. tariffs, China has raised tariffs on U.S. goods to 125% and is focusing on internal adjustments [8]. - The European Union is preparing retaliatory tariffs targeting U.S. tech companies and is seeking to strengthen ties with China [8]. - Emerging economies like Cambodia and Vietnam are warned to face severe impacts due to their reliance on the U.S. market [10]. Financial Market Reactions - Following the announcement of tariffs, U.S. stock markets experienced significant declines, with a total market value loss exceeding $1 trillion [13]. - Gold prices surged, while cryptocurrencies also faced substantial drops, indicating a flight to safety among investors [13]. Historical Context and Future Outlook - Economists draw parallels to the 1930s, warning that high tariffs could lead to a repeat of the disastrous trade wars that exacerbated the Great Depression [15][17]. - The article suggests that the current trade policies may signal the end of the golden age of free trade, leading to a more fragmented and regionalized trade order [17].

美国耶鲁大学预算实验室最新的研究数据表明，截至7月31日，美国对进口商品征收的平均有效关 税税率达18.3%，为1934年以来最高水平。平均有效关税税率并非固定值，而是会随着国家政策、经济 形势以及国际贸易环境的变化而调整。 此外，关税将使2025年美国家庭平均支出增加2400美元，其中对服装类商品的影响尤为严重。短期 内，消费者可能会看到鞋类价格上涨40%，服装价格上涨38%。 而从长远来看，鞋类价格可能上涨 19%，而服装价格可能上涨17%。 该预算实验室认为，关税政策将导致美国2025年和2026年实际国内生产总值增长率每年降低0.5个 百分点。同时关税还将导致到2025年底，美国失业率上升0.3个百分点，到2026年底，失业率上升0.7个 百分点。 ...

2024年限额以上单位服装类商品零售额为10716.2亿元 穿类商品网上零售额同比增长1.5% 智通财经7月24日电，据中国物流与采购联合会消息，在促消费等政策的推动下，我国服装消费市场韧 性与活力持续释放，服装物流与供应链呈现多元业态融合发展的趋势，同时服装物流加速国际化进程。 据介绍，2024年限额以上单位服装类商品零售额为10716.2亿元，穿类商品网上零售额同比增长1.5%， 服装及衣着附件出口1591.4亿美元。 ...