Core Insights - The 2025 Guangzhou Auto Show will feature 93 global debut vehicles, with 629 of the total 1,085 vehicles being new energy models, representing nearly 60% of the exhibition [1] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 56.98% in October, with a year-to-date rate of 52.71%, indicating a significant shift towards electrification in the automotive market [1] - New energy vehicles have transitioned from being a supporting role to becoming the main focus at the auto show, highlighting the industry's transformation [1] Industry Trends - The auto market is experiencing a "Matthew Effect," leading to intensified competition and brand differentiation, with technology iteration and price restructuring occurring simultaneously [4] - New energy vehicles are now the primary attraction at major auto shows, reflecting a shift in consumer interest and market dynamics [5] New Vehicle Highlights - XPeng Motors will unveil its first range-extended vehicle, the XPeng X9 Super Range Extender, at the auto show, which boasts a comprehensive range of 1,602 km and a pure electric range of 452 km [6][8] - The new XPeng X9 aims to capture a larger market share in the popular 300,000 RMB hybrid MPV segment, leveraging its established presence in the pure electric MPV market [8] - The new AITO M9 and other models from traditional manufacturers are also set to showcase their latest offerings, emphasizing the competitive landscape in the high-end SUV market [25] Competitive Landscape - Li Auto's new model, the AITO M8, and other competitors like Tesla's Model 3 are dominating the 250,000-300,000 RMB pure electric sedan market, creating challenges for new entrants like the AITO S9 [12] - Leap Motor plans to introduce three new models, including the Leap Lafa 5 and D19, targeting different market segments with a diverse product lineup [13][16] - The high-end electric vehicle segment is becoming increasingly competitive, with traditional automakers focusing on technology upgrades and market segmentation to capture consumer interest [25][28] Strategic Moves - Lido's new L80 model aims to provide a more affordable five-seat option, enhancing its market appeal by optimizing space and reducing entry costs [18][24] - Lantu will showcase three flagship models at the auto show, emphasizing its self-developed hybrid technology and targeting various consumer needs [26][29] - Zeekr's upcoming model, the Zeekr 8X, is positioned as a "mini flagship," aiming to leverage the success of its larger counterpart, the Zeekr 9X, in the competitive SUV market [30][35] Conclusion - The Guangzhou Auto Show is set to highlight the ongoing transformation in the automotive industry, particularly in the new energy vehicle sector, with a focus on technology advancements and market segmentation [41] - The competition in the high-end SUV market is intensifying, as brands strive to establish their presence and differentiate their offerings in a crowded marketplace [41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Geely Automobile, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [6][19]. Core Views - Geely Automobile reported excellent performance in Q1 2025, achieving revenue of 72.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25%, and a net profit of 5.7 billion yuan, up 41 million yuan year-on-year [2][9]. - The company is restructuring its organizational framework to enhance management efficiency and synergy under the "One Geely" strategy, following the acquisition of Zeekr Technology [4][9]. - The electric and intelligent transformation is progressing, with new models set to launch in 2025, and the integration of its four major brands is expected to reduce costs and increase efficiency [9]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: In Q1 2025, Geely sold 700,000 vehicles, a 48% increase year-on-year, leading to a revenue of 72.5 billion yuan. The gross margin was 15.8%, with a net profit of 5.7 billion yuan, reflecting a significant improvement [9]. - **Future Projections**: The report forecasts total sales of 2.74 million, 3.24 million, and 3.75 million vehicles for 2025-2027, with corresponding revenues of 336.4 billion, 442.0 billion, and 514.2 billion yuan, respectively [9][10]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Expected EPS for 2025 is 1.47 yuan, with a projected PE ratio of 12.4 times [5][10]. Market Position and Valuation - The target price range for Geely is set between 23.89 and 28.66 HKD, with a potential upside of 21% to 45% based on historical valuation levels and recent market performance [6][9]. - The company's total market capitalization is approximately 198.94 billion HKD, with a current share price of 19.74 HKD [6][10].

Summary of Geely Automobile Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Geely Automobile - **Key Event**: Privatization of Zeekr and acquisition of Lynk & Co shares Core Points and Arguments - **Privatization of Zeekr**: Geely announced a non-binding offer to privatize Zeekr at $2.566 per share, representing a 13% premium based on the average price over the last 30 trading days. This move aims to enhance internal integration and reduce costs, especially given the low valuation of Zeekr in the US market [2][3] - **Acquisition of Lynk & Co**: Geely completed a 100% acquisition of both Zeekr and Lynk & Co, which is expected to improve operational efficiency and resource integration [2][4] - **Sales Performance**: During the May Day holiday, Geely's sales increased by approximately 10% year-on-year, driven by the popularity of the Galaxy series models, which have received positive customer feedback for their spaciousness and high configuration [2][5] - **Development Stages**: Geely has undergone five development stages, from establishment and listing to technological transformation, launching popular models, and now focusing on strategic integration and brand consolidation through the Taizhou Declaration [2][8] - **Vehicle Platforms**: Geely utilizes multiple vehicle platforms (BMA, CMA, SEA, GEA) to support diverse vehicle production, providing a flexible development foundation [2][10] - **Upcoming Technology Launch**: Geely plans to launch a super electric hybrid system by the end of Q3 2025, alongside the Zeekr 9X, which is expected to significantly enhance market performance [2][11] - **Valuation Analysis**: Despite shrinking profit margins in domestic fuel vehicles, Geely's overall market value has a potential upside of 50%, considering overseas profits, revenue from Galaxy and Zeekr, and investment returns [2][23] Additional Important Content - **Market Trends**: The overall market is expected to recover in the coming months, particularly in the new energy vehicle sector, supporting Geely's new vehicle cycle [2][7] - **Brand Integration**: The integration of brands like Geometry into Galaxy and the merger of Lynk & Co with Zeekr are part of Geely's strategy to optimize resource allocation and improve operational efficiency [2][12][16] - **Competitive Position**: Geely claims to possess comparable technology to BYD and emphasizes the importance of governance and technological iteration over individual model sales [2][17] - **Future Product Plans**: Geely plans to launch five new models this year, including the Starry 8 and Star越 7, to address gaps in fuel vehicle offerings [2][19] - **Lynk & Co's New Energy Strategy**: Lynk & Co has achieved over 60% penetration in the new energy sector and is set to release a hybrid version of a large sedan [2][21] - **Profitability Outlook**: In extreme scenarios, Geely's domestic fuel vehicle profits could drop to around 12 billion RMB, but overall market capitalization could reach 230 billion RMB, indicating significant upside potential [2][23]