【导读】下星期，美联储降息，基本定了 低于预期的读数是个惊喜，尤其对那些对进一步降息仍有顾虑的部分美联储官员而言。尽管市场普遍预计美联储将在下周会议上下调借贷成本，这份报告 或将帮助决策者相信他们在12月也可以再次降息——在政府关门持续、其他官方数据缺失的情况下更是如此。 市场已经完全消化了年内剩余时间两次降息25个基点的预期。 大家好，今晚重磅数据出炉，影响下星期美联储降息！一起看看发生了什么事情。 9月美国核心通胀以三个月来最慢速度上升，令美联储维持下周降息路径。 10月24日晚间，根据美国劳工统计局（BLS）公布的数据，剔除波动较大的食品和能源后，核心消费者价格指数（CPI）较8月上涨0.2%。这主要受到住房 成本关键指标录得自2021年初以来最小增幅的抑制。 | 公制 | 实际的 | 估计 | | --- | --- | --- | | 消费者物价指数环比 | +0.3% | +0.4% | | 核心CPI月率 | +0.2% | +0.3% | | 消费者物价指数同比 | +3.0% | +3.1% | | 核心CPI同比 | +3.0% | +3.1% | 原定于10月15日发布的9月CPI报告因 ...

【导读】下星期，美联储降息，基本定了 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，今晚重磅数据出炉，影响下星期美联储降息！一起看看发生了什么事情。 9月美国核心通胀以三个月来最慢速度上升，令美联储维持下周降息路径。 10月24日晚间，根据美国劳工统计局（BLS）公布的数据，剔除波动较大的食品和能源后，核心消费者价格指数（CPI）较8月上涨 0.2%。这主要受到住房成本关键指标录得自2021年初以来最小增幅的抑制。 | 公制 | 实际的 | 估计 | | --- | --- | --- | | 消费者物价指数环比 | +0.3% | +0.4% | | 核心CPI月率 | +0.2% | +0.3% | | 消费者物价指数同比 | +3.0% | +3.1% | | 核心CPI同比 | +3.0% | +3.1% | 原定于10月15日发布的9月CPI报告因联邦政府持续关门而推迟。自10月1日停摆以来，BLS的大部分工作停止，但该机构召回部分员工准 备本次发布，以便社会保障局（SSA）计算年度生活成本调整——明年合计上调2.8%。 低于预期的读数是个惊喜，尤其对那些对进一步降息仍有顾虑的部分美联储官员而言。尽管市场普遍预计美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The surge in initial jobless claims in the U.S. indicates a significant slowdown in hiring and potential increases in layoffs, reinforcing expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September [1][2]. Group 1: Jobless Claims Data - Initial jobless claims rose by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest level since October 2021, surpassing economists' median forecast of 235,000 [1]. - The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims increased to 240,500, the highest since June [1]. - Texas experienced a notable increase in claims, with an unadjusted rise of 15,304, while most states saw a decline in claims [1][2]. Group 2: Labor Market Trends - The monthly employment report indicated only 22,000 new jobs added in August, continuing a trend of significant slowdown in job growth [1]. - Consumer confidence in job finding dropped to its lowest level since June 2013, reflecting uncertainty surrounding economic policies [1]. - Continuing claims for unemployment benefits remained steady at 1.94 million, indicating the current scale of individuals receiving unemployment assistance [2]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Implications - The jobless claims data is critical ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting on September 16-17, as it reflects the labor market's condition [2]. - There is growing market speculation that the Federal Reserve may resume interest rate cuts due to increasing concerns over employment issues [2]. - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3% in August, aligning with economists' expectations, which may influence the Fed's decision-making [2].

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street traders expect the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report to show persistent inflation, but do not anticipate significant market reactions due to employment data dominating the narrative [1] Group 1: Market Reactions and Predictions - Options traders are betting on a mild 0.7% fluctuation in the S&P 500 index following the CPI report, which is lower than the average 0.9% fluctuation observed over the past year [1] - Current implied volatility is considered high, depending on traders' predictions regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate path [1] - The market is pricing in over a 1% rate cut from the Federal Reserve over the next year, but rising inflation could disrupt this expectation [1][3] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - Barclays economists now predict three rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year, with two additional cuts in 2026 [3] - If the CPI report shows a significant rise in consumer prices, inflation could accelerate towards the end of the year and extend into 2026, potentially leading the Federal Reserve to maintain rates in October and December [3] Group 3: Core CPI Predictions and Market Impact - Economists forecast a 0.3% month-over-month increase in the core CPI for August, resulting in a year-over-year increase of 3.1%, exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target [4] - The most likely scenario for core CPI is a month-over-month increase between 0.3% and 0.35%, with the S&P 500 expected to fluctuate between a decline of 0.25% and an increase of 0.5% [4][5] - If core CPI rises above 0.4%, the S&P 500 could drop by up to 2%, although this scenario has only a 5% probability [5][6] Group 4: Economic Growth and Market Sentiment - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model indicates a robust 3% annualized growth rate for Q3, slightly down from 3.3% in Q2, contributing to low risk expectations among traders [5] - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) remains below the critical 20 level, indicating low market concern [5] - The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index is nearing its highest level since January, suggesting that positive economic surprises could complicate the Federal Reserve's inflation control efforts [6]