国泰海通2026春季策略会 世代新能源 3月26日-深圳市福田区智格里拉大酒店 U 国泰海通 595-04-229 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 会议亮点 Z 世代新能源分会场联合军工、通信团队、燃动新质生产力,聚焦 核聚变终极能源探索、商业航天空天能源布局,解锁固态电池产业 新突破,联动 AIDC 算力能源协同,畅想Z世代新能源。 议程安排 | ● 13:30-14:30 商业航天：火箭、卫星 | | --- | | 特邀嘉宾 | | ● 14:30-15:30 商业航天与科研院所协同 | | 特邀嘉宾 | | ● 15:30-16:30 商业航天：相控阵雷达&卫星激光通信 | | 特邀嘉宾 | | ● 16:30-17:30 商业航天：大空算力 | 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the power equipment and new energy industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period saw slower-than-expected carbon reduction, prompting high-energy-consuming industries to accelerate carbon reduction commercialization during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, leading to a growth inflection point for green fuels [3][8] - The demand for energy storage is expected to grow significantly, with a forecasted 50% increase in energy storage installations by 2025, driven by the rapid growth of new energy [3][19] - The offshore wind power, perovskite, and space photovoltaic sectors are anticipated to exhibit high growth potential during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period [3][8] Summary by Sections 1. Wind and Solar Power Entering Maturity with High Growth in Sub-markets - The demand for new energy installations in China is expected to remain robust, with a target of 360 million kilowatts of wind and solar power capacity by 2035 [12] - The average annual installation space for wind and solar power is projected to exceed 400 GW from 2026 to 2035 [12][13] 2. Energy Storage and Nuclear Power with Stable Supply Attributes - By the end of 2025, China's energy storage installations are expected to reach 66.43 GW, with a year-on-year growth of 52% [19] - The construction speed of nuclear power is expected to accelerate, with a target of 70 million kilowatts of operational capacity by 2025 [21] 3. Carbon Reduction Goals and the Emergence of Green Fuels - The actual carbon reduction progress during the "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to fall short of the target, necessitating increased efforts in the "15th Five-Year Plan" [26] - Policies are encouraging the integration of green electricity with hydrogen, ammonia, and zero-carbon parks [29] 4. New Photovoltaic Technologies and Nuclear Fusion - Perovskite technology is expected to achieve mass production during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, with efficiency improvements anticipated [32] - The BEST project aims for completion by 2027, with significant investment expected in nuclear fusion technology [34]

Core Insights - The 2026 Nuclear Fusion Energy Technology and Industry Conference exceeded expectations with over 400 investment institutions in attendance, highlighting the growing interest in nuclear fusion as a future energy source [1] Industry Overview - Nuclear fusion energy, seen as a potential ultimate energy solution, is transitioning from "scientific breakthroughs" to "energy applications," marking a significant historical turning point [1] Investment Landscape - The conference attracted attention from academia, industry, and the financial investment community, indicating a strong interest in the commercialization of nuclear fusion technology [1]

Industry Overview - The 2026 Nuclear Fusion Technology and Industry Conference will be held in Hefei, Anhui from January 16 to 17, 2026, focusing on promoting collaborative innovation and results transformation in the nuclear fusion industry chain [1] - Controlled nuclear fusion has been included in top-level planning as a future industry, with significant capital expenditure entering an upward cycle [1] - Hefei has established a leading global cluster of fusion devices, covering multiple key technology links of magnetic confinement fusion, with 37% of the country's related patents [1] - The demand for electricity driven by AI computing power is increasing the importance of controlled nuclear fusion as a "ultimate energy," with the industry entering the "engineering feasibility verification" stage [1] Company Insights - Hezhong Intelligent is leading in the manufacturing process of fusion reactor vacuum chambers, benefiting from the construction of the Hefei fusion industry cluster [2] - Western Superconducting is a core supplier for nuclear fusion, deeply involved in domestic and international fusion projects, and is the only supplier of low-temperature superconducting wire for the ITER project in China, with the CRAFT project delivery expected in 2024 [2]

Market Overview - On December 19, the nuclear fusion sector opened with significant gains, with companies like Wangzi New Materials and Baili Electric hitting the daily limit, and others like Sichuang Electronics and Xue Ren Group also experiencing substantial increases [1] Key Events - On December 18, Trump Media Technology Group announced a merger agreement with nuclear fusion company TAE Technologies, valued at over $6 billion, aiming to build the world's first 50 MW utility-scale fusion power plant by 2026 to meet the energy demands of AI data centers [3] - The same day, Michigan regulators approved DTE Energy Co.'s power supply plan to support a 1.4 GW data center project in collaboration with Oracle and OpenAI, with a total planned capacity exceeding 8 GW and an investment of $450 billion over the next three years [3] Industry Insights - Nuclear fusion is emerging as the "ultimate energy" solution for high-energy consumption scenarios in AI, driven by explosive growth in electricity demand from data centers, which is expected to reach 180 TWh in 2024, accounting for 45% of global demand, and projected to grow to 420 TWh by 2030 at a CAGR of 15% [4] - The global controllable nuclear fusion market is estimated to reach approximately $20.35 billion between 2025 and 2035, with over 50% of this market attributed to core components such as magnet structures, vacuum chambers, and power systems [4] Technological and Policy Developments - The industry is transitioning from laboratory research to engineering deployment, supported by policies like the $900 million funding for small modular reactors (SMRs) in the U.S. and an executive order mandating the deployment of nuclear reactors at military bases by 2028 [4] - Major AI companies, including Microsoft, Google, and Amazon, are accelerating their investments in nuclear fusion, with OpenAI's first commercial micro-reactor expected to be operational by 2027 [5] Domestic Market Potential - Domestic companies are positioned to benefit from global energy transition trends, with collaborative efforts between research institutions and private enterprises accelerating key projects like the BEST project [5] - The nuclear fusion supply chain encompasses critical components such as magnets, power supplies, and supporting equipment, with opportunities for domestic firms to share in market growth through supply contracts and technology exports [5]

Transaction Overview - TMTG will merge with TAE in an all-stock transaction, aiming to create a pro forma company capitalized to fund a utility-scale fusion plant and grow media and technology franchises[5] - The transaction is expected to close in mid-2026, pending customary closing conditions and shareholder approval[5] - Post-merger, TMTG/TAE are expected to own approximately 50% each on a fully diluted basis[6] - TMTG has agreed to provide up to $200 million in cash to TAE, with an additional $100 million available upon initial filing of the Form S-4[6] Pro Forma Company Strategy - The pro forma company aims to deliver clean, affordable, and reliable fusion energy, targeting utility-scale power generation with plants scaled to 350-500 MWe[8, 9] - The company plans to advance TAE's proprietary technology, which is considered safe, deployable, and reliable for baseload power to meet AI-driven demand[7, 9] - The company intends to construct its first utility-scale 50 MWe fusion power plant, with site location and construction commencing in 2026, targeting initial power operations in 2031[21] Financials and Leadership - The pro forma company will have $3.1 billion of financial assets on its balance sheet as of Q3 2025[28] - TAE has raised $1.3 billion in private capital to date[7, 25] - The pro forma company will be governed by a nine-member board, with a majority being independent, including Devin Nunes, Michl Binderbauer, Donald J Trump Jr, and Michael B Schwab (Chairman)[6, 7] TAE Technology and Innovation - TAE has a 27-year history of fusion research, having built five fusion reactors to date[6, 7, 19] - TAE has over 400 employees, including 62 Ph Ds, and has been granted over 1,600 patents[7] - TAE is targeting fusion-generated electricity by 2031, with future commercial power plants expected to be sized at 350-500 MWe[11, 20]

Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk criticizes the efforts to build small nuclear fusion reactors on Earth, calling them "extremely foolish" and emphasizes that the Sun is the ultimate "free fusion reactor" [3][6] Group 1: Musk's Perspective - Musk argues that investing in small fusion reactors is a waste of resources, urging companies to stop funding these "pet science projects" [3][6] - He uses a striking analogy to highlight the Sun's energy dominance, stating that even if four Jupiters were burned, the Sun would still account for nearly 100% of energy production in the solar system [3][4] Group 2: Silicon Valley's Investment Trend - In stark contrast to Musk's views, major tech companies like Nvidia and Google are heavily investing in nuclear fusion technology, aiming to leverage AI to accelerate its commercialization [6][7] - Commonwealth Fusion Systems recently announced an investment of $863 million, with Nvidia among the investors, indicating strong financial backing for fusion projects [7] - Google's AI subsidiary, DeepMind, is collaborating with Commonwealth Fusion Systems to utilize AI in developing grid-compatible fusion energy solutions [7] Group 3: Government Support and Future Plans - The U.S. government is actively supporting fusion technology, with the Department of Energy releasing a new "fusion roadmap" aimed at integrating fusion energy into the U.S. energy structure by the early 2030s [7] - The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) notes that global fusion projects are entering a critical phase aimed at unlocking safe, abundant, and zero-carbon energy [7]

Group 1: Market Overview - In 2025, global markets showed a divergent pattern influenced by monetary policy shifts, geopolitical easing, and the AI wave, with China's equity market benefiting from technology breakthroughs and supportive policies, leading to a surge in sectors like AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, new energy, and non-ferrous metals, pushing the Shanghai Composite Index above 4000 points [1][14] - The bond market has transitioned from years of unilateral growth to increased volatility and narrowed yield space [1][14] - The outlook for 2026 remains optimistic, particularly for the equity market, with technology expected to be the main theme, while resource and cyclical sectors may present specific opportunities [1][14] Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes economic construction, targeting a GDP growth rate of around 5% for 2026, with a focus on domestic demand and consumption as primary growth drivers [3][16] - Inflation is expected to rise from its low point due to policies aimed at stimulating demand, including subsidies and increased public service spending [3][16] - The real estate sector's drag on the economy is diminishing, with various policies expected to stabilize housing prices [3][16] Group 3: Equity Market Insights - The equity market is projected to benefit from long-term structural advantages in the Chinese economy, with a focus on corporate profit recovery [5][19] - As of November, the TTM P/E ratio of the CSI 300 Index was approximately 14 times, indicating room for growth, with improving corporate profits and a favorable risk appetite due to easing US-China relations [6][19] - Key areas of focus include technology, particularly AI, semiconductors, and consumer electronics, as well as resource and cyclical sectors [6][20] Group 4: Bond Market Analysis - The bond market is expected to experience narrow fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield projected to remain between 1.75% and 1.9% [8][23] - Government bond net financing is anticipated to increase by approximately 1.1 trillion yuan in 2026 compared to 2025, although the overall supply increase is not significant [8][23] - There is a focus on trading opportunities within the bond market, particularly related to inflation expectations and long-term bond supply [8][23] Group 5: Global and Commodity Market Opportunities - The outlook for overseas markets, including Hong Kong, US, Europe, and Japan, is mixed, with optimism for Hong Kong due to domestic growth policies and potential capital inflows [10][25] - The commodity market is expected to rebalance in 2026, with industrial metals like copper and tin likely to perform well due to supply-demand dynamics and the recovery of global manufacturing [10][26] - Gold is expected to maintain its appeal as a financial and safe-haven asset, supported by central bank purchases and the US Federal Reserve's easing cycle [10][26]

Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk criticizes efforts to build small nuclear fusion reactors on Earth, labeling them as "extremely foolish" and reiterating his support for solar energy as the ultimate "free fusion reactor" [1] Group 1: Musk's Perspective - Musk emphasizes the unparalleled energy advantage of the sun, stating that even if four Jupiters were burned, the sun would still account for nearly 100% of energy output in the solar system [1] - He urges companies involved in clean energy debates to stop wasting money on small fusion reactors, characterizing them as expensive and unnecessary "side projects" [1] Group 2: Contrasting Industry Trends - In stark contrast to Musk's views, major players in Silicon Valley, including Nvidia and Google, are heavily investing in nuclear fusion technology, aiming to leverage artificial intelligence to accelerate its commercialization [3][4] - Commonwealth Fusion Systems recently announced an investment of $863 million, with Nvidia being one of the investors, highlighting the financial commitment to fusion technology [4] - AI is seen as a critical variable in accelerating fusion development, with Google's DeepMind collaborating with Commonwealth Fusion Systems to integrate AI expertise with advanced hardware [4] Group 3: Government and Institutional Support - The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) notes that global fusion projects aimed at unlocking safe, abundant, and zero-carbon energy have entered a critical phase [4] - The U.S. Department of Energy has released a new "fusion roadmap," outlining plans to incorporate fusion energy into the U.S. energy structure by the early 2030s, indicating strong governmental support for fusion technology [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [2] Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has introduced the goal of becoming an "Energy Power," marking a significant shift in China's energy strategy, emphasizing the need for technological self-reliance and competitiveness in the energy sector [5][6] - The nuclear fusion industry is entering a phase of accelerated project launches, with significant bidding activity observed, indicating a robust market potential estimated to reach trillions during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [6][7] - Key companies in the nuclear fusion sector, such as 合锻智能, 王子新材, and 永鼎股份, are highlighted as important players to watch due to their involvement in upcoming projects and expected growth in 2026 [7][8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The total number of listed companies in the machinery equipment industry is 632, with a total share capital of 4,356.64 million shares and sales revenue of 28,958.20 billion yuan [2] - The total profit for the industry stands at 2,150.95 billion yuan, with an average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 106.85 and an average stock price of 27.60 yuan [2] Market Performance - The machinery equipment sector has shown varying performance against the CSI 300 index, with a notable increase of 34% over the observed period [3] Future Projections - The nuclear fusion sector is expected to see a significant increase in bidding amounts in 2026, with ongoing projects like the 合肥 BEST project and the 江西 mixed pile project anticipated to drive growth [6][7] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with a history of supplying fusion devices, such as 旭光电子 and 四创电子, as they are likely to benefit from the industry's expansion [8]