Group 1: Futures Market Data - EC2604 had a closing price of 1898.9, a decline of 2.99%, a basis of -342.4, a trading volume of 18908, an open interest of 15267, and a change in open interest of -2429 [2] - EC2605 had a closing price of 2178.2, a decline of 8.43%, a basis of -621.7, a trading volume of 1142, an open interest of 1569, and a change in open interest of -245 [2] - EC2606 had a closing price of 2439.2, a decline of 9.42%, a basis of -882.7, a trading volume of 11832, an open interest of 13405, and a change in open interest of -907 [2] - EC2607 had a closing price of 2567.0, a decline of 7.76%, a basis of -1010.5, a trading volume of 318, an open interest of 913, and a change in open interest of -79 [2] - EC2608 had a closing price of 2410.8, a decline of 5.98%, a basis of -854.3, a trading volume of 1175, an open interest of 2828, and a change in open interest of -117 [2] - EC2609 had a closing price of 1720.0, a decline of 6.29%, a basis of -163.5, a trading volume not shown, an open interest of 495, and a change in open interest of -7 [2] - EC2610 had a closing price of 1573.0, a decline of 4.55%, a basis of -16.5, a trading volume of 2309, an open interest of 7502, and a change in open interest of -15 [2] - EC2612 had a closing price of 1774.0, a decline of 2.26%, a basis of -217.5, a trading volume of 70, an open interest of 448, and a change in open interest of 10 [2] Group 2: Month - to - Month Spread Data - The spread of EC2604 - 2606 was -540.3, with a day - on - day increase of 195.2 and a week - on - week decrease of 103.6 [2] - The spread of EC2604 - 2605 was -279.3, with a day - on - day increase of 142.1 and a week - on - week decrease of 231.7 [2] - The spread of EC2606 - 2610 was 866.2, with a day - on - day decrease of 178.7 and a week - on - week increase of 49.6 [2] Group 3: Spot Market Data - The spot price of the European line (Tallat) on March 16, 2026, was 1556.49 points, with a 0.71% increase from the previous period [2] - The SCFI of the European line on March 20, 2026, was 1636 dollars/TEU, with a 1.11% increase from the previous period [2] Group 4: Market Analysis - The EC2604 contract is entering the delivery logic, with a contradiction between weak fundamentals and potential fuel cost increases; the EC2610 contract follows the cost - support logic with high geopolitical risks. On Tuesday, both aspects of news were bearish, and the market is expected to be weak [3] Group 5: European Line Spot Situation - In Week 13, MSK's price was flat at 2250 dollars, PA reported 2400 - 2500 dollars, and some voyages were 2200 dollars (2000 dollars for large - volume orders). The average spot price converted to the futures price was about 1700 - 1800 points. COSCO announced a price increase for the European line in April to 5100 dollars, and CMA issued a price - increase letter for April of 3500 dollars [4] - In Week 14, MSK reported 2650 dollars (a 400 - dollar increase from the previous week) [4] - In Week 15, after Tuesday's market close, the price was reported at 2350 dollars (a 300 - dollar decrease from the previous week) [4] - In early April, ONE reported 2500 dollars, EMC reported 3160 dollars, and OOCL reported 3100 dollars [4] Group 6: Related News - On March 25, US media reported that the US had sent a 15 - point plan to Iran to end the Middle - East war. The plan involved Iran's ballistic missile and nuclear programs and maritime shipping lanes. Pakistan's Army Chief Munir had become an important communication bridge between the US and Iran, and Egypt and Turkey encouraged Iran to engage constructively [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - The transmission path of the geopolitical event to the European line is complex and highly uncertain. It is recommended to avoid the high volatility risk of unilateral trading and look for arbitrage opportunities brought by the valuation of monthly spreads. Short - term, it is advisable to wait and see. Although historically, the reverse spreads of 6 - 7 and 6 - 8 are reasonably valued, it still depends on the duration of the geopolitical situation. If the issue is resolved in May, the current structure is also reasonable [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contract Information - For contract EC2604, the previous closing price was 1938.8, with a decline of 1.59%, a basis of - 393.3, a trading volume of 38449, an open interest of 24603, and an open interest change of - 438 [2] - For contract EC2605, the price was 2175.0, with a decline of 1.83%, a basis of - 629.5, a trading volume of 2285, an open interest of 1957, and an open interest change of - 203 [2] - For contract EC2606, the price was 2394.4, with a decline of 1.87%, a basis of - 848.9, a trading volume of 12680, an open interest of 14383, and an open interest change of 98 [2] - For contract EC2607, the price was 2500.6, with a decline of 0.87%, a basis of - 955.1, a trading volume not provided, an open interest of 775, and an open interest change of 3 [2] - For contract EC2608, the price was 2375.0, with an increase of 0.30%, a basis of - 829.5, a trading volume of 1331, an open interest of 2868, and an open interest change of - 180 [2] - For contract EC2609, the price was 1716.8, with a decline of 0.65%, a basis of - 171.3, a trading volume not provided, an open interest of 576, and an open interest change of - 6 [2] - For contract EC2610, the price was 1568.0, with a decline of 0.82%, a basis of - 22.5, a trading volume of 3635, an open interest of 8472, and an open interest change of - 93 [2] - For contract EC2612, the price was 1814.0, with a decline of 2.90%, a basis of - 268.5, a trading volume of 102, an open interest of 403, and an open interest change of 0 [2] Month - spread Information - The month - spread of EC2604 - 2606 was - 416.8, with a day - on - day increase of 14.3 and a week - on - week decrease of 134.5 [2] - The month - spread of EC2604 - 2605 was - 186.3, with a day - on - day increase of 9.2 and a week - on - week decrease of 59.1 [2] - The month - spread of EC2606 - 2610 was 856.5, with a day - on - day decrease of 32.6 and a week - on - week increase of 115.6 [2] Spot and Index Information - The spot price (European line) on March 9, 2026, was 1545.46, with a 5.61% increase compared to the previous period and a - 7.00% decrease in the previous period [2] - The SCFI (European line) index on March 13, 2026, was 1618 dollars/TEU, with an 11.43% increase compared to the previous period and a 2.25% increase in the previous period [2] European Line Spot Situation - In late March, OA and PA alliances and MSC announced price increases to around 4000 US dollars [3] - In Week 12, MSK quoted 2250 US dollars (a 400 - dollar increase compared to the previous week), QA alliance quoted 2700 - 2800 US dollars, PA alliance quoted 2200 US dollars (a 200 - dollar decrease for large - volume orders), and MSC quoted 2740 US dollars (a 200 - dollar decrease for large - volume orders). The average was 2450 US dollars, equivalent to about 1715 points on the futures market [3] - In Week 13, MSK kept the price at 2250 US dollars, and other shipping companies quoted around 2700 - 3000 US dollars. On Monday, ONE's Week 13 quote dropped from 2755 US dollars to 2445 US dollars at 1:30 pm and then was adjusted back to 2755 US dollars after the market closed, possibly due to an internal staff operation error [3] News - On March 16, the media reported that the Iranian foreign minister had text - exchanged with Witkoff, which the Iranian foreign minister denied [4] - On March 17, Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi stated that there had been no information exchange between Iran and the US, Tehran had not proposed a cease - fire request, and "the war must end in a way that ensures it will not happen again" [4] - Two senior White House officials said that Iran had recently tried to contact the Trump administration through multiple channels to restart diplomatic negotiations, but President Trump refused to resume negotiations. Iranian officials tried to contact US Middle East envoy Witkoff and other government officials, but Trump instructed the team not to negotiate for the time being and hoped to continue military operations. Araqchi denied recent contact with Witkoff and said that the last contact occurred before the US launched new military operations against Iran [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 02 contract follows the delivery logic with a small deviation. The 04 contract needs attention on the spot market and actual rush - shipping situation. Spot price decline suppresses the futures market, but the potential increase in post - Chinese New Year rush - shipping may weaken the price decline slope in March. The current valuation of the 04 contract fluctuates widely within a reasonable range, and it is recommended to pay attention to possible correction opportunities. The adjustment of export tax rebates is negative for the far - month contracts, but far - month contracts are greatly affected by geopolitical factors. It is generally recommended to focus on shorting the 10 contract on rallies. Currently, the valuations of the 04 and 10 contracts are neutral with limited downward space [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Contract Quotes - EC2602 closed at 1714.3 with a 0.22% increase, trading volume of 1999, and an open interest of 6439 with a decrease of 1139. EC2604 closed at 1132.2 with a 1.00% increase, trading volume of 30559, and an open interest of 41888 with a decrease of 744. EC2606 closed at 1318.0 with a 0.52% increase, trading volume of 2329, and an open interest of 4200 with an increase of 420. EC2608 closed at 1459.0 with a 0.45% decrease, trading volume of 121, and an open interest of 1366 with a decrease of 19. EC2610 closed at 1054.1 with a 0.09% decrease, trading volume of 1410, and an open interest of 8186 with an increase of 248 [2] - For the month - spread, EC2502 - 2604 was 582.1 compared to the previous day, with a day - on - day decrease of 7.4 and a week - on - week increase of 61.4. EC2504 - 2606 was - 185.8, with a day - on - day increase of 4.4 and a week - on - week increase of 28.0 [2] Spot Indexes - The SCHIS (European route) index on January 12, 2026, was 1956.39, showing an 8.94% increase from the previous period and a 3.05% increase from the period before the previous one. The SCFI (European route) index on January 16, 2026, was 1676 dollars/TEU, a 2.50% decrease from the previous period [2] European Route Spot Situation - In Week 4, MSK opened the cabin at 2750 (a 100 increase from the previous period), PA at 2400 (YML had two special offers at 2250), and OA at 2700 - 2900 dollars. The central price was 2630 dollars, equivalent to 1840 points on the futures. In Week 5, MSK opened the cabin at 2450 (a 300 decrease from the previous period), PA at 2400 (special offer at 2200), and OA at 2700 dollars. The central price was 2540 dollars, equivalent to 1780 points on the futures [3] Related News - On January 20, Iran stated that the internet would return to normal within the week, and the Iranian security forces' commander said that the government had fully restored order in all cities. Russia, Belarus, the EU, Norway, Poland, Thailand, Uzbekistan and other countries have successively stated that their leaders have been invited to join the Gaza "Peace Committee" [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - For contracts after 02, the trend mainly depends on the spot market. The key lies in the peak height and time of freight rates in January. Historically, freight rate peaks often occur 4 - 5 weeks before the Spring Festival, but high capacity in January may suppress the increase. Currently, the risk - reward ratio for both shorting and going long is not high, so it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - For the 04 contract, the short - term downside space is small. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities when 04 may follow the spot market or close the basis [3]. - For far - term contracts, use a positive spread strategy. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the 10 contract [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Contract Market Data - **Contract Prices and Volumes**: EC2512 closed at 1631.5 with a - 1.11% change, EC2602 at 1686.8 (- 3.39%), EC2604 at 1112.7 (- 3.22%), EC2606 at 1290.0 (- 1.28%), EC2608 at 1462.4 (- 1.18%), and EC2610 at 1041.2 (- 1.20%). Trading volumes were 212 for EC2512, 27798 for EC2602, 7161 for EC2604, 279 for EC2606, 216 for EC2608, and 641 for EC2610. Open interest and its changes also varied for each contract [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: For example, EC2512 - 2504 had a spread of 518.8, with a day - on - day increase of 18.7 and a week - on - week decrease of - 73.3. Different month - to - month spreads showed various trends [2]. - **Index Data**: The ટરદાર index on 2025/12/15 was 1510.56 with a 0.10% increase. SCFI (on 2025/12/12) was 1538 dollars/TEU with a 9.86% increase, CCFI was 1470.55 points with a 1.59% increase, and NCFI was 1064.13 points with a 9.98% increase [2]. European Line Spot Situation - **Week 51**: MSK opened bookings for 2400 (200 more than the previous week). MSC and OA quoted between 2600 - 2700, and PA quoted 2400 dollars. The current central price was 1760 dollars, equivalent to about 1760 points on the futures market [4]. - **Week 52**: MSK opened bookings for 2300 (100 less than the previous week), and other companies mainly followed the Week 51 quotes [4]. - **January**: MSK and MSC announced price increases to 3500 and 3700 dollars respectively [4]. - **Monday**: MSC opened bookings at 2864 dollars, equivalent to 2000 points on the futures market [4]. - **Tuesday**: MSK quoted 2700 dollars/FEU for the China - Europe route to London (2800 for 40 - foot high - cube containers) [4]. Related News - On 12/15, the White House privately rebuked Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu for violating the Gaza cease - fire agreement. Israel killed a Hamas deputy commander in Gaza City on Saturday without informing or consulting the US [5]. - On 12/16, the Israeli Defense Forces attacked a Hezbollah member in southern Lebanon [5].