节日期间，各大商圈和特色街区不再满足于传统的促销打折，而是通过场景重塑、业态融合和文化赋能，将流量转化为留量，点燃城市消费热情。吾悦广 场展出超大型精仿战斗机模型，设置最美中国红美陈展，通过氛围打造，营造国庆节日氛围，增强市民参与感和节日归属感。开元商城举办首届宝鸡时装 周，国民彩妆品牌毛戈平国庆巡展，宇树机器人到店巡游、演出。陈仓老街举办"周风雅韵·礼行华夏·老街国庆奇妙游""太阳市体彩欢度国庆演出"系列活 动，累计接待游客26.3万人次，实现营业收入1032万。宏运悦生活银泰店节前开业运营，人气足、活力旺，10月1日当天销售额突破100万元。 全域联动、跨界引流，商旅文体深度融合 保供稳价、保障安全，消费环境舒心放心 "国庆"期间，全市52户重点监测企业实现销售额8082.96万元，同比增长8.62%。其中，32家零售企业实现销售额6506.4万元，同比增长8.06%；20家餐饮 企业实现销售额1576.56万元，同比增长10.98%。全市消费市场运行平稳，重要生活必需品货源充足、供应有序，商贸领域安全稳定，总体呈现"活动多、 人气旺、销售增、秩序好"的繁荣景象。 市县联动、部门配合，精心组织谋划70场" ...

Core Viewpoint - 毛戈平 is positioned as a high-end beauty brand in China, with a focus on offline high-end department store channels, holding a 3.7% market share in the Chinese color cosmetics market in 2024, ranking 6th overall and 4th among brands [1] Sales and Revenue - In 2024, 毛戈平's total revenue is projected to be 3.88 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 34.6% [5] - The revenue from offline channels slightly exceeds 50%, reaching 1.949 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 21.6% [1] - Online sales are rapidly growing, with an expected revenue share of 48% in 2024 [1] Product Composition - Color cosmetics account for approximately 60% of 毛戈平's revenue, while skincare products make up about 40% [1] - The company has around 400 SKUs in total, with approximately 350 in color cosmetics and 50 in skincare [3] Market Position and Competition - 毛戈平's market share in the color cosmetics sector is 3.7%, surpassing brands like Nars, Mac, and Bobbi Brown [3] - The brand's pricing strategy is aligned with high-end brands like Chanel and Dior, but it faces limited room for price increases [3] Customer Engagement - 毛戈平's membership base grew by 46.6% in 2024, reaching 1.51 million members, indicating improved customer loyalty [2] - The offline member repurchase rate is 34.9%, higher than the online rate of 27.5%, with an overall repurchase rate increasing from 26.8% to 30.9% [2] Future Projections - 毛戈平's operating profit and net profit attributable to shareholders are expected to continue growing, with projected revenues of 5.19 billion yuan, 6.66 billion yuan, and 8.36 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with growth rates of 34%, 28%, and 26% respectively [5][6] - The gross profit margin is expected to remain stable around 84% through 2027 [5][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the retail industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the strong performance of domestic brands in the skincare and cosmetics sectors on platforms like Douyin, with significant market share gains [5][25][28] - The report emphasizes the importance of emotional consumption trends driving growth in various retail segments, particularly in jewelry, cosmetics, and offline retail [30][31] Summary by Sections Retail Market Overview - The retail industry index decreased by 2.22% during the week of July 28 to August 1, 2025, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.28 percentage points [7][14] - The professional chain segment showed the largest increase among retail sub-sectors, while the jewelry sector led the year-to-date performance with a 25.38% increase [17][20] Key Industry Dynamics - In July, Douyin's skincare brand Han Shu ranked first, with domestic brands occupying 15 out of the top 20 spots in the skincare category [25][28] - The cosmetics sector also saw domestic brands excel, with 19 out of the top 20 positions in the makeup category, driven by cushion products and other high-demand items [28][29] Investment Recommendations - Investment focus areas include: - **Jewelry**: Recommend brands with differentiated product offerings like Laopuhuang and Chaohongji [30][33] - **Offline Retail**: Highlight companies like Yonghui Supermarket and Aiyingshi that are adapting to consumer trends [30][31] - **Cosmetics**: Emphasize domestic brands with strong market positions such as Maogeping and Pola [31][32] - **Medical Aesthetics**: Focus on companies with unique product lines like Aimeike and Kedi-B [31][32] Company-Specific Insights - **Laopuhuang**: Achieved revenue of 8.506 billion yuan (+167.5%) and a net profit of 1.473 billion yuan (+253.9%) in FY2024, with strong growth expected in H1 2025 [32] - **Yonghui Supermarket**: Reported a revenue of 17.479 billion yuan (-19.3%) and a net profit of 148 million yuan (-80.0%) in Q1 2025, with ongoing transformation efforts [32] - **Maogeping**: Recorded a revenue of 3.885 billion yuan (+34.6%) and a net profit of 881 million yuan (+33.0%) in FY2024, indicating strong brand momentum [32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the cosmetics and medical beauty industry [2]. Core Insights - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector underperformed the market during the week of June 27 to July 4, 2025, with the Shenwan Beauty Care Index declining by 0.6% and the Shenwan Cosmetics Index down by 1.5% [3][4]. - Domestic brands such as Maogeping and others showed significant growth, with some achieving over 50% growth in June, which is expected to positively impact Q2 performance [3][9]. - The report highlights a strong performance from leading domestic brands during the 618 shopping festival, with a notable increase in sales momentum post-event [9][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The Shenwan Beauty Care Index decreased by 0.6%, while the Shenwan Cosmetics Index fell by 1.5%, indicating weaker performance compared to the Shenwan A Index [4]. - The personal care products index saw a slight increase of 0.7%, but still lagged behind the Shenwan A Index by 0.4% [4]. Key Company Performance - Expected performance for major companies in Q2 includes: - Upbeauty: Revenue and net profit expected to grow by 16% and 25% respectively [11]. - Marubi: Anticipated revenue and net profit growth of 22% and 28% [11]. - Proya: Projected revenue and net profit growth of 10% and 15% [11]. - Maogeping: Expected revenue and net profit growth of 38% and 35% [11]. - Ruifeng: Anticipated growth of 70% and 75% in revenue and net profit respectively [11]. - Juzhibio: Expected growth of 25% and 20% in revenue and net profit [11]. Market Trends - The report notes a robust recovery in consumer demand, with a 4.1% year-on-year increase in retail sales for cosmetics in the first five months of 2025 [20]. - The domestic market is seeing a shift with local brands gaining market share, as evidenced by the performance of brands like Proya and Maogeping during major shopping events [34]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: - Upbeauty, Proya, and Marubi for their comprehensive brand matrices and growth potential [15]. - Maogeping and Juzhibio for their strong positioning in niche markets [15]. - Attention is advised for Shanghai Jahwa, Betaini, and Huaxi Biological for potential growth [15]. E-commerce Insights - Data from Douyin indicates significant growth for domestic brands, with Han Shu achieving a GMV of 7.2 billion yuan, reflecting a 53% year-on-year increase [16]. - The overall GMV for domestic brands in June reached over 50% growth, indicating a strong market presence [9][16].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic beauty industry is expected to experience a new wave of mergers and acquisitions, highlighted by the acquisition of skincare brand Baizhicui by local beauty group Juyi Group, which aims to complement its existing beauty business [1][2]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - Juyi Group has signed an acquisition agreement with Baizhicui, although the specific price has not been disclosed [1]. - Baizhicui, founded in 2012 by dermatologist Li Yuanhong, has focused on product promotion through professional channels such as public hospitals [2]. - Post-acquisition, Li Yuanhong will continue as Chief Product Officer at Baizhicui, overseeing the entire product development process [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The domestic beauty industry is experiencing "extreme polarization," with leading companies establishing competitive advantages while smaller brands face significant survival pressures [1][5]. - The acquisition strategy is seen as a viable path for leading companies, with a trend of "big fish eating small fish" expected to continue [5]. Group 3: Business Growth and Financials - Juyi Group's revenue reached 2.61 billion yuan in 2023, projected to grow to 3.5 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 36% year-on-year increase [6]. - The main brand, Judo, reportedly generated over 2 billion yuan in revenue, positioning it as a leading domestic color cosmetics brand [6]. - The acquisition of Baizhicui is anticipated to enhance Juyi's revenue, potentially exceeding 4 billion yuan this year [7]. Group 4: Strategic Implications - The acquisition aligns with Juyi Group's multi-brand strategy, expanding its presence in the color cosmetics, skincare, and hair care sectors [4]. - Industry experts suggest that the merger will provide Baizhicui with more resources and support to deepen its focus on sensitive skin products, while Juyi fills a gap in its skincare offerings [7]. - The ongoing trend of acquisitions and expansions is viewed as a strategic move to enhance market valuation and prepare for potential public listings in the future [7].