永久组合

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手搓「永久组合」,这届年轻人的投资赢学
雪球· 2025-07-14 09:19
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising popularity of the "Permanent Portfolio" investment strategy among young investors, particularly in the context of social media platforms like Xiaohongshu, emphasizing its simplicity and effectiveness in wealth management [2][5]. Group 1: Permanent Portfolio Concept - The "Permanent Portfolio" is a classic multi-asset allocation strategy created by Harry Browne in the 1970s, designed to provide stability and growth through diversified asset allocation [3][5]. - This strategy is not merely a simple four-part allocation but represents a flexible approach that can be tailored to individual preferences, allowing for personal variations in asset allocation [5][12]. Group 2: Market Trends and Historical Context - The resurgence of interest in multi-asset portfolios is linked to macroeconomic conditions reminiscent of the 1970s, particularly the significant rise in gold prices, which increased from $35 to $512, a cumulative increase of 1363% [13][15]. - The current economic environment, characterized by slowing growth and high interest rates, has led to a renewed focus on multi-asset strategies, paralleling the historical context of the 1970s [15][14]. Group 3: Investment Behavior of Young Investors - Young investors today prefer to create their own "safe havens" through personalized investment strategies, reflecting a desire for autonomy and reduced external influence in their financial decisions [17][18]. - The article highlights a cultural shift where younger generations are more inclined to engage in self-directed investment strategies, aligning with the principles of the Permanent Portfolio, which emphasizes diversification and minimal intervention [18][19].
【招银研究|资本市场专题】穿越周期的中低波动投资:永久与全天候模型
招商银行研究· 2025-06-11 09:30
Group 1 - The article discusses the increasing uncertainty in global economic policies and the challenges investors face in wealth growth, particularly in the context of low interest rates in China and high volatility in equity assets [1][4] - It introduces two classic asset allocation models: the Permanent Portfolio and the All Weather Portfolio, which aim to create low-volatility investment strategies that can withstand economic cycles [1][4] - Historical data from 1971 to 2024 shows that both models have achieved annualized returns of 8-9% in the US market, with the Permanent Portfolio yielding 8.4% and the All Weather Portfolio yielding 8.7% [10][11] Group 2 - The long-term effectiveness of these models is attributed to three main reasons: economic growth and monetary expansion leading to positive returns on underlying assets, low correlation among assets reducing portfolio volatility, and diversification and rebalancing enhancing compound returns [2][19] - The article emphasizes that the long-term returns of various asset classes are generally positive, with equities outperforming other assets, which is crucial for the portfolio's ability to exceed nominal GDP growth [2][20][22] Group 3 - The article details the asset allocation ratios for both models, explaining that there is no optimal allocation ratio as it depends on individual risk preferences and return objectives [3][55] - It highlights the importance of understanding the long-term returns and volatility of underlying assets, as well as their correlations, to make informed allocation decisions [56][57] Group 4 - The article analyzes the performance of the Permanent and All Weather Portfolios in the US market, showing that both portfolios have lower volatility compared to individual asset classes while achieving returns close to equities [14][18] - It provides a detailed examination of the historical performance of these portfolios, including their maximum drawdowns and annual returns over the years [10][11][12]
明星投顾组合最新“成绩单”曝光:年内盈利产品仅剩8只,业绩前三调仓策略现分歧
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-05-09 11:19
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that 17 equity star advisory portfolios collectively reported negative returns over the past month, with only 8 maintaining positive returns in the first four months of the year [1][2] - The top three performing advisory portfolios have shifted their strategies towards defensive positions, increasing allocations in consumer sectors and undervalued assets, reflecting differing responses to market volatility [1][2] - The average return of the 17 equity star advisory portfolios was 0.22%, with the best-performing portfolio, "Yinhua Tianji - Qiaoqiao Ying," leading with a return of 7.65% in the first quarter, focusing on hard technology, medical healthcare, and basic consumer sectors [2][3] Group 2 - The "Yinhua Tianji - Qiaoqiao Ying" portfolio made adjustments in late April, increasing its allocation to consumer sectors while balancing technology categories, and reducing the proportion of index funds [2][3] - The "Jihua Jinqu" portfolio also made adjustments in late April, reducing exposure to bonds and low-volatility assets while increasing investments in undervalued sectors like pharmaceuticals and real estate [3][4] - The "Zhongou Super Stock All-Star Portfolio" conducted a rebalancing in early April, maintaining an overweight position in growth styles while optimizing specific holdings due to macroeconomic uncertainties [4] Group 3 - The global asset direction advisory portfolios showed significant performance divergence, with an average return of approximately -0.62% over the past month, and only 9 out of 27 portfolios reporting gains [4][5] - The "Guotai Jinqi Global Allocation Portfolio" achieved the highest return of 11.84% in the first four months, focusing on the Hong Kong stock market and sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and gold [5] - The "Time Traveler Portfolio" completed its first rebalancing since 2025 in late April, shifting from high-volatility tech investments to lower-volatility index funds due to anticipated increases in U.S. stock market volatility [5]