钛媒体App 12月27日消息，又到一年岁末，外贸企业结汇需求集中释放。受访人士指出，在人民币升值 预期增强的背景下，企业往往会加快将前期积累的外汇资金结汇；而结汇规模的上升，又会进一步增加 市场外汇供给、强化对人民币的需求，从而推动人民币汇率走强，形成相互强化的正反馈机制。中信证 券明明团队认为，2026年美元指数偏弱趋势或延续（受美日/美欧利差收窄、美国财政政策影响），为 人民币创造友好外部环境。中国人民银行张弛有度的稳汇率政策有望增强人民币韧性，若国内政策协同 发力带动经济修复，内外因素共振或催化汇率中枢破"7"。在此背景下，受访机构普遍认为，企业应树 立"风险中性"的财务理念，提前筹谋，科学避险，最大程度地降低汇率波动带来的风险。（中国经营 报） ...

中经记者 郝亚娟 夏欣 上海 北京报道 2025年12月25日，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，人民币对美元中间价报7.0392，较前一交 易日调升79个基点。离岸人民币对美元汇率升破"7"，这是自2024年9月以来首次。 又到一年岁末，外贸企业结汇需求集中释放。受访人士指出，在人民币升值预期增强的背景下，企业往 往会加快将前期积累的外汇资金结汇；而结汇规模的上升，又会进一步增加市场外汇供给、强化对人民 币的需求，从而推动人民币汇率走强，形成相互强化的正反馈机制。 中信证券（600030.SH）明明团队认为，2026年美元指数偏弱趋势或延续（受美日/美欧利差收窄、美国 财政政策影响），为人民币创造友好外部环境。中国人民银行张弛有度的稳汇率政策有望增强人民币韧 性，若国内政策协同发力带动经济修复，内外因素共振或催化汇率中枢破"7"。 在此背景下，受访机构普遍认为，企业应树立"风险中性"的财务理念，提前筹谋，科学避险，最大程度 地降低汇率波动带来的风险。 结汇需求集中释放 据海关总署统计，2025年前11个月，我国货物贸易进出口总值41.21万亿元，同比增长3.6%。其中，出 口增长6.2%，进口增长0.2 ...

Group 1 - The offshore RMB to USD exchange rate has recently strengthened, breaking the 7.0 mark for the first time since September 2024, with a peak of 6.9960 [1] - The onshore RMB also showed an upward trend, reaching a high of 7.0053 and closing at 7.0066, an increase of 95 points from the previous trading day [1] - The People's Bank of China announced a significant adjustment in the central parity rate, setting it at 7.0392, which is the highest since September 30, 2024, with an increase of 79 basis points [1] Group 2 - Financial regulatory authorities have a clear strategy for stabilizing the exchange rate, emphasizing a market-oriented approach without excessive liquidity, aiming to maintain the RMB at a reasonable and balanced level [2] - There is a general expectation in the market for the RMB to continue approaching the 7.0 mark in the short term, with potential for temporary breaks below this level, but long-term trends are expected to exhibit "two-way fluctuations" [2] - In the context of a weak USD index, there is still room for RMB appreciation, with regulatory support likely to keep the exchange rate fluctuating between 6.9 and 7.3 [2]

Group 1 - The offshore RMB against the USD has surpassed the 7.0 mark, with the central parity rate reported at 7.0392, an increase of 79 basis points [1] - The RMB exchange rate has shown a trend of "initial suppression followed by a rise," attributed to stronger-than-expected Chinese economic performance and a weakening USD [1] - Strong export performance, driven by accumulated demand for foreign exchange settlements as the year-end approaches, has supported the RMB's appreciation [1] Group 2 - The appreciation of the RMB may weaken the price competitiveness of manufacturing enterprises with high export weights, while industries reliant on imported raw materials could benefit from lower costs and improved profits [1] - The recent strengthening of the RMB is seen as favorable for Chinese assets, enhancing the attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets and potentially opening up monetary easing space [2] - Different market institutions have varying predictions for the future of the RMB exchange rate, with some expecting it to hover around the 7.0 mark by 2026, while others anticipate it could rise to the 6.7 to 6.8 range if the USD remains weak [2]

年末的外汇市场，人民币对美元汇率走出强势行情。 12月23日，离岸人民币升破7.02关口，在岸人民币升破7.03关口，双双创下14个月新高，年内离岸、在 岸人民币对美元汇率累计升幅分别达4.4%和3.7%，波动率降至近十年低位。 人民币对美元双边汇率的走强，需要多维度看待。当前CFETS人民币汇率指数、BIS货币篮子指数等均 较年初有所下跌，这种"一强一弱"的态势，恰恰说明判断人民币价值不能只看单一币种，需立足一篮子 货币的全局视角。 保持汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定，正是基于对汇率波动规律的深刻把握。 实践证明，汇率双向波动、弹性增强才是常态，既能及时释放市场压力，又能防范热钱炒作和资本异常 流动，发挥宏观经济"自动稳定器"的作用。如果盲目赌单边升值，忽视内外部环境的不确定性，很可能 面临风险反噬。 从外部环境看，美联储降息空间已逐步收窄，美元指数不排除阶段性反弹可能，叠加美国中期选举年贸 易政策的潜在波动，人民币升值之路不会一帆风顺。 从内部基本面看，经济新旧动能转换尚未完成，市场预期仍需巩固，贸易顺差扩大与内部需求不足的双 重力量，让人民币汇率始终处于动态均衡的调整过程中。 脱离经济基本面的快速升值， ...

这波人民币升值，一方面依托国内经济基本面的韧性支撑，另一方面也受美元指数下行、年底结汇需求 释放等因素推动，进一步提振了市场对人民币走势的信心。 12月24日晚，人民币对美元汇率延续升值走势，离岸人民币盘中最高升值至7.0013，离"破7"仅一步之 遥。 年末的外汇市场，人民币对美元汇率走出强势行情。 12月23日，离岸人民币升破7.02关口，在岸人民币升破7.03关口，双双创下14个月新高，年内离岸、在 岸人民币对美元汇率累计升幅分别达4.4%和3.7%，波动率降至近十年低位。 对市场机构而言，面对汇率波动更应坚守"风险中性"理念。与其投机赌汇率涨跌，不如专注主业发展， 通过外汇套保等工具控制货币错配和汇率敞口风险。 12月以来超30家A股公司扎堆开展外汇套期保值业务，正是理性应对波动的例证。 对监管部门来说，需持续加强预期引导和宏观审慎管理，完善外汇市场工具供给，为企业规避汇率风险 提供更便利的支持，同时坚决抑制汇率大起大落。 目前人民币"破7"在即，市场也涌现不少乐观情绪，认为人民币后续将继续升值。不过在"破7"预期升温 的当下，也需清醒认知，汇率升值并非一蹴而就，更别期待"一口吃成胖子"。 人民币对美 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core View of the Report - Overseas macro: The October FOMC meeting cut interest rates by 25bp and will stop quantitative tightening on December 1st, in line with market expectations. There are differences within the Fed on the policy rate path, and the expected path of interest rate cuts has changed. Powell's speech was somewhat hawkish, emphasizing a "data-dependent" approach and "risk neutrality" [7]. - Domestic macro: On October 28th, the "Proposal" and "Explanation" related to the 15th Five - Year Plan were released, enhancing the strategic status of science and technology and emerging industries. The Sino - US summit on October 30th was positive, with many consensuses on economic and trade consultations [7]. - Asset view: Short - term balanced allocation is recommended. With the implementation of interest rate cuts, progress in Sino - US tariff talks, and the release of details from the 4th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, it is expected to benefit equity sectors (especially the science and technology innovation sector) and non - ferrous metals. Black commodities also have a chance to rebound, while precious metals may continue to fluctuate and adjust in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas: The Fed cut interest rates in October and will stop quantitative tightening. There are internal differences on the policy rate path, and the expected path of interest rate cuts has changed. Powell's speech was hawkish, emphasizing data dependence and risk neutrality [7]. - Domestic: The release of the 15th Five - Year Plan - related documents enhanced the status of science and technology and emerging industries. The Sino - US summit was positive, with many economic and trade consensuses [7]. - Asset: Short - term balanced allocation. Equity sectors, non - ferrous metals, and black commodities are expected to benefit, while precious metals may fluctuate [7]. 3.2 Financial Sector - Stock Index Futures: Technology events catalyze the active growth style, with small and micro - cap funds being crowded. Short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend [8]. - Stock Index Options: The overall market turnover has slightly declined, and the liquidity of the options market may be lower than expected. Short - term judgment is volatile [8]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The bond market continues to be weak. Concerns include policy, fundamental repair, and tariff factors. Short - term judgment is volatile [8]. 3.3 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: Geopolitical and economic and trade tensions have eased, leading to a phased adjustment of precious metals. Concerns include the US fundamentals, Fed policy, and global equity market trends. Short - term judgment is volatile [8]. 3.4 Shipping - Container Shipping to Europe: The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is a lack of upward momentum due to loading pressure. Concerns include the rate of freight decline in September. Short - term judgment is volatile [8]. 3.5 Black Building Materials - Steel: There are continuous policy disturbances and inventory pressure. Concerns include the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - water production. Short - term judgment is volatile [8]. - Iron Ore: The fundamental contradictions are not significant, and emotional disturbances are more obvious. Concerns include overseas mine production and shipping, domestic iron - water production, weather, port inventory, and policy dynamics. Short - term judgment is volatile [8]. - Coke: The start - up rate continues to decline, and price increases are about to be implemented. Concerns include steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment. Short - term judgment is volatile [8]. - Coking Coal: There are continuous supply disturbances, and coal prices are relatively strong. Concerns include steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment. Short - term judgment is volatile [8]. - Other: For other products in this sector, such as silicon iron, manganese silicon, glass, etc., the short - term judgment is mostly volatile, with corresponding concerns for each product [8]. 3.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - For various non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., the short - term judgment is mostly volatile, with different concerns for each metal, such as supply disturbances, policy changes, and demand expectations [8]. 3.7 Energy and Chemical Industry - For most products in this sector, such as crude oil, LPG, asphalt, etc., the short - term judgment is mostly volatile or volatile downward, with concerns including supply and demand, policy, and price fluctuations of related raw materials [10]. 3.8 Agriculture - For various agricultural products such as grains, oils, and livestock products, the short - term judgment is mostly volatile, with concerns including weather, supply and demand, and policy [10].

Core Insights - The article highlights the proactive measures taken by CITIC Bank's Yiwu branch to support foreign trade enterprises amidst significant policy adjustments and exchange rate fluctuations in the foreign trade sector [1][10] - The bank has successfully integrated financial services into the local foreign economic development, achieving a foreign exchange hedging ratio of over 31%, surpassing state-owned banks and leading in the Yiwu financial sector [1][4] Group 1: Financial Services and Innovations - CITIC Bank Yiwu branch has developed a diverse range of foreign exchange hedging products, including forward foreign exchange settlements, foreign exchange swaps, options, and combination products, to meet the specific needs of enterprises facing exchange rate volatility [1][3] - The bank introduced innovative products like "Hanging Order Profit" and "Deposit Treasure" to help enterprises optimize their profit windows during exchange rate fluctuations [3][4] - A specialized service team was formed to provide tailored financial solutions, including a $50 million currency swap plan for a large group's overseas subsidiary, effectively stabilizing repayment costs and eliminating potential profit impacts from exchange rate fluctuations [5][9] Group 2: Client Engagement and Support - The bank has conducted over 450 on-site visits to enterprises, implementing a "one enterprise, one policy" approach to provide customized foreign exchange risk management guidance [8][9] - Through collaboration with local government and industry associations, the bank has organized events to educate enterprises on foreign exchange risk management strategies, enhancing their understanding of financial tools [8][9] - The establishment of a three-in-one service team comprising client managers, product managers, and traders has improved the precision of service delivery and real-time transaction guidance for enterprises [9][10] Group 3: Future Directions and Commitment - CITIC Bank Yiwu branch aims to deepen its integration into the local industrial ecosystem, focusing on providing comprehensive financial services that support enterprises in expanding from domestic markets to global platforms [10] - The bank plans to enhance its "Trust Foreign Exchange+" service system, emphasizing market analysis, product customization, foreign exchange trading, and system development to better serve foreign trade enterprises [10]

Core Insights - The event "Exchange Rate Hedging: Let's Go Together" was held in Ningbo to enhance enterprises' management of exchange rate risks and to discuss strategies for cross-border operations [1][3] Group 1: Exchange Rate Risk Management - The Deputy Director of the Ningbo Branch of the People's Bank of China emphasized the importance of rationally viewing exchange rate fluctuations and adopting a "risk-neutral" mindset [3] - A risk management mechanism was introduced, which includes "one principle and three prohibitions," encouraging enterprises to use hedging tools flexibly based on their business characteristics and risk exposure [3] - Policies aimed at supporting foreign trade enterprises, especially small and micro enterprises, were discussed, including the "Four Major Subsidy" policies and initiatives to promote the "risk-neutral" concept [3] Group 2: Compliance and Investment - The Deputy Director of the Ningbo Municipal Bureau of Commerce shared insights on the requirements and considerations for overseas investment filings, highlighting the increasing pace and diversification of Ningbo enterprises' international operations [5] - A multi-department compliance system was outlined, emphasizing that compliance is a fundamental aspect throughout the investment process, providing clear policy guidance for enterprises [5] Group 3: Banking Support and Services - Ningbo Bank's Deputy General Manager stated that the bank prioritizes foreign exchange business and aims to be a "professional consultant" for exchange rate management and a "comprehensive guide" for global operations [7] - The bank's experts presented on three main topics: foreign exchange market trends, exchange rate hedging strategies, and a special service plan for the 138th Autumn Canton Fair, offering comprehensive solutions for customer acquisition, settlement, financing, exchange rates, and international expansion [7] Group 4: Feedback from Enterprises - Attendees expressed positive feedback, indicating that the event helped them better understand market dynamics and the importance of establishing effective exchange rate management systems [9] - Representatives from various enterprises noted that the meeting provided practical directions for managing exchange rate risks and expressed a desire for more opportunities for future exchanges [9]

Group 1 - The core objective of the recent campaign by Bohai Bank's Changchun branch is to promote the concept of integrity and enhance the foreign exchange environment in Jilin Province [1][2] - The campaign employs a dual approach of "online + offline" to ensure comprehensive outreach to various market entities and the public [1][2] - Offline activities include prominent displays of integrity-themed slogans and educational materials at bank branches, along with staff providing direct consultations to customers [1][2] Group 2 - Online efforts leverage the bank's official WeChat account to disseminate information focused on "integrity in foreign exchange," including articles on managing exchange rate risks and the dangers of illegal cross-border financial activities [2] - The bank aims to create a public atmosphere that encourages trustworthiness and restricts dishonest practices, thereby enhancing the overall integrity of the market [2] - Future plans include deepening the "integrity in business" concept with more targeted promotions and quality services to support compliant market entities [2]