人民币的5600点狂飙 2026年2月26日，当离岸人民币对美元的数字最终定格在6.83这一刻，金融街和陆家嘴的操盘手们或许都产生了一种奇妙的错位感。这种错 位感并非来自数字本身，而是背景板的极度安静——全球主要货币集体"摆烂"，唯有人民币独自上演气势如虹的升值。 编辑：[沙尘暴] 从7.4到6.83，人民币用了十个月时间完成了一场逆袭。 2026年开年后的这两个月，美元指数像是陷入了泥沼，始终在96.5到98.5的窄幅区间内反复拉锯，涨不动也跌不透；欧元、日元和英镑这些 传统主流货币，也大多选择原地踏步，毫无波澜。 就在一片诡异的寂静中，人民币却像开了挂一样，走出了独立于全球货币的强势行情，让华尔街的分析师集体懵圈。 2025年12月，999亿美元的结售汇顺差砸进市场；2026年1月，260亿美元涌入股市；港股IPO募资规模暴涨10倍。当全球主要货币还在96到 98的泥潭里挣扎时，人民币已经踩着三笔重金的肩膀，冲上了6.83的高地。 回看2025年4月，人民币还在7.4的深水区徘徊，处境艰难；但从那一刻起，升值的天平开始悄然倾斜，一步一个脚印，稳步攀升。直到2026 年2月底，十个月时间里，人民币已经累计攀 ...

2026 年 2 月 26 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 可转债组合的风险中性方法对比 [Table_Page] 金融工程|专题报告 量化可转债研究之十三 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： 图 1：全市场可转债数量与规模 图 2：双低组合超额收益对比 -1 0 1 2 3 分层抽样法 回归残差法 优化器法 等权组合 市值加权组合 数据来源：Wind, 广发证券发展研究中心 | [分析师： Table_Author]张超 | | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260514070002 | | SFC CE No. BOB130 | | | 020-66335132 | | | | zhangchao@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 安宁宁 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260512020003 | | SFC CE No. BNW179 | | | 0755-23948352 | | | | anningning@gf.com.cn | | DocReport] [Table_ 相关研究： | | | --- | --- | | 如何应对组合中的异 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the continuation of proactive macro policies in China, aiming for effective economic growth and stability in employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, while maintaining the stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable level [1] Group 1: Economic Performance - China's current account surplus reached a record $734.9 billion last year, a 73.4% increase year-on-year, with a ratio to nominal GDP of 3.5%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous year [1] - In the last two quarters of the previous year, the current account surplus was $198.7 billion and $242.1 billion, respectively, both setting new quarterly records [1] - Exports grew by 5.5% last year, while imports remained stable, resulting in a trade surplus of $1.19 trillion, despite a 20% decline in exports to the U.S. [2] Group 2: Trade Dynamics - The increase in the trade surplus indicates a potential for RMB appreciation, but domestic demand remains weak, necessitating continued active fiscal and moderate monetary policies [2] - China's export market share fell to 14.36% in the first three quarters of last year, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points year-on-year, with a more significant drop in global import market share of 9.69%, down 0.76 percentage points [2] Group 3: Policy Recommendations - The macroeconomic policy should adhere to the Tinbergen Rule, ensuring that policy tools match the number of objectives, with exchange rate policy focusing on external balance and fiscal/monetary policy on internal balance [3] - The report suggests a need for careful management of exchange rate expectations to avoid excessive appreciation or depreciation, emphasizing the importance of market-driven exchange rate formation [4][5] - It is recommended to enhance the resilience of the foreign exchange market and stabilize market expectations while promoting domestic demand and structural adjustments to achieve a more balanced economic growth model [5]

Core Viewpoint - The appreciation of the RMB has significant tightening effects on the macro economy, especially in the context of a large trade surplus and net external debt position of the private sector in China [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Policy and Macro Environment - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the continuation of proactive macro policies to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, aiming for qualitative and effective economic growth [1]. - The meeting highlights the need to maintain the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level for the fourth consecutive year, indicating the importance of external and internal economic balance [1][2]. Group 2: Trade Surplus and External Balance - China's current account surplus reached a record $734.9 billion last year, a 73.4% increase year-on-year, with a surplus-to-GDP ratio of 3.5%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous year [1]. - The trade surplus is driven by strong export competitiveness and a stable position in global supply chains, despite a significant drop in exports to the U.S. by 20% [2][3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Exchange Rate Management - The decline in China's export market share to 14.36% and a drop in global import market share to 9.69% indicate challenges in maintaining external competitiveness [3]. - The shift from net external debt to net external assets in the private sector means that RMB appreciation could lead to a reduction in private sector foreign exchange income and assets, complicating exchange rate management [4][5]. Group 4: Policy Recommendations - The report suggests a multi-faceted approach to manage exchange rates, including deepening market-oriented reforms and enhancing monitoring of cross-border capital flows to prevent excessive appreciation of the RMB [5]. - It advocates for targeted fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate domestic demand and promote a consumption-driven economic model, aiming to balance savings and investments [5].

2月10日，中国人民银行发布2025年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告。其中提出，把握好利率、汇率内 外均衡。深入推进利率市场化改革，畅通货币政策传导渠道。健全市场化利率形成、调控和传导机制， 发挥中央银行政策利率引导作用。引导短期货币市场利率更好围绕央行政策利率平稳运行。强化利率政 策执行和监督，持续开展对金融机构利率政策和自律约定执行情况的现场检查和评估，提升银行自主理 性定价能力。更好发挥利率自律机制作用，有效落实各项利率自律倡议，维护银行业市场竞争秩序。持 续改革完善贷款市场报价利率（LPR），着重提高LPR报价质量，更真实反映贷款市场利率水平。督促 金融机构坚持风险定价原则，理顺贷款利率与债券收益率等市场利率的关系。持续深化明示企业贷款综 合融资成本试点，促进社会综合融资成本低位运行。稳步深化汇率市场化改革，完善以市场供求为基 础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度，坚持市场在汇率形成中起决定性作用，发挥汇 率调节宏观经济和国际收支自动稳定器功能。做好跨境资金流动的监测分析，坚持底线思维，综合施 策，增强外汇市场韧性，稳定市场预期，防范汇率超调风险，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本 稳定。 ...

Group 1 - The gold and silver markets experienced a dramatic shift from extreme enthusiasm to panic within a month of 2026, with gold prices rising nearly 30% and silver prices over 60% before a significant drop [1] - On January 30, gold prices fell over 12%, marking the largest single-day drop since 1983, while silver prices dropped by 26.42% on the same day [1] - The decline in gold and silver prices had a cascading effect on the stock market, particularly impacting A-share gold concept stocks and resource stocks, leading to a broader market adjustment [1] Group 2 - The National Investment Silver LOF faced significant pressure due to high market premiums, which were unsustainable following the drop in silver prices, leading to a trading halt on February 2 [2] - The immediate cause of the price drop was linked to the nomination of a new Federal Reserve Chair known for a hawkish stance on inflation, which strengthened the dollar and negatively impacted gold and silver [2] - Market sentiment had already been fragile, with concentrated selling pressure and increased margin requirements contributing to the volatility [2] Group 3 - The decline in gold and silver prices signals a potential end to the investment frenzy, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a balanced asset allocation rather than succumbing to fear or greed [3] - Investors are advised to adhere to a "risk-neutral" principle, focusing on service and product profitability rather than speculating on price movements, as evidenced by recent failures in the Shenzhen gold market [3] - Despite the price drop, demand for physical gold remains, and the narrative of a weak dollar continues to provide some support for gold and silver prices [4]

Group 1 - The gold and silver markets experienced a dramatic shift from extreme enthusiasm to panic within a month, with gold prices rising nearly 30% and silver prices over 60% before a significant drop on January 30 [1] - On January 30, gold prices fell by over 12%, marking the largest single-day drop since 1983, while silver prices dropped by 26.42%, leading to widespread panic among investors [1][2] - The decline in gold and silver prices is interpreted as a sign of the end of the investment frenzy, with market sentiment already fragile due to profit-taking and increased margin requirements [2][3] Group 2 - The drop in gold and silver prices is expected to impact the equity markets, with several gold-related stocks in the A-share market hitting their daily limit down [2] - The recent appointment of a hawkish Federal Reserve chairman has contributed to the decline in gold and silver prices, as the dollar rebounded significantly [2] - Despite the price drop, demand for physical gold remains, indicating that the narrative of a "weak dollar" continues to support gold and silver prices [4] Group 3 - The investment approach to gold and silver should be cautious, with recommendations suggesting a portfolio allocation of only 10% to 15% in these assets, emphasizing the importance of discipline during market euphoria [3] - Operators in the gold market are advised to maintain a "risk-neutral" stance and hedge against price fluctuations rather than speculating on price movements [3] - The ongoing volatility in gold and silver prices suggests that investors should remain calm and rational when considering their allocations in these assets [4]

每经评论员 杜恒峰 相比个股，交投高度活跃的国投白银LOF的压力更大。截至1月30日，其最新净值为3.28元，二级市场 价格为5.25元，溢价约60%。高溢价的支撑来自银价不断上涨的事实和预期，当这两者都不存在时，市 场价将向净值靠拢。 金银价格急挫被广泛解读的直接原因，是特朗普提名沃什为新任美联储主席。在美联储任职期间，沃什 以"通胀鹰派"著称，其上台后有关美联储独立性的担忧将减弱。1月30日，美元大幅回弹，作为对立面 的金银难免受到冲击。 然而，这只是表象，在此之前，市场情绪已经达到了极度脆弱的状态，获利盘的集中抛压、交易所提高 保证金比例等不利因素已在积累，任何消息面的变化，都可能引发短线投机者的集中抛售。 金价、银价下跌是投资热潮走向阶段性尾声的必然结果。金银市场必然有投机成分，但对普通投资者和 以金银为主要业务的经营者来说，恐惧和贪婪均不可取。金银的保值、避险功能将一直存在，金银也具 有配置价值，但配置意味着这只是资产的一部分，即便是极度看好黄金的桥水基金创始人达利欧，推荐 的配置比例也只有10%至15%。这意味着金价大跌时也不影响资产基本盘，投资者不需要恐惧；在市场 情绪狂热时，则应当严守纪律，不 ...

来源：人民日报客户端 同时也要看到，人民币国际化的步伐正逐渐加快。2025年上半年，人民币跨境收付金额合计为35万亿 元，同比增长14%，其中货物贸易跨境人民币收付金额合计为6.4万亿元，占同期本外币跨境收付的比 重为28%，收付金额和占比均处历史最好水平，这反映出人民币在国际贸易结算中的接受度不断提升， 尤其是共建"一带一路"国家和东盟、非洲地区的国家，对人民币结算的接受度更高。在此背景下，我国 货物出口对于汇率波动的敏感性也在逐步降低。 在复杂国际环境中，人民币汇率保持基本稳定的核心支撑，来自于中国经济表现出的强大韧性。中国具 有超大规模市场和完整产业链，科技创新和产业创新加速融合，新动能蓬勃发展，内需潜力不断释放， 国内国际双循环更加畅通，宏观经济基本面长期向好，这对人民币汇率基本稳定形成了坚实支撑。我国 外汇交易量持续创历史新高，市场参与主体涵盖国内主要金融机构以及境外机构，交易主体多元、市场 深度拓展，也能够有效吸纳外部环境变化的影响。 在市场化的汇率形成机制下，人民币汇率由市场供需决定，汇率波动是常态。对企业来说，要适应人民 币汇率表现出的"双向波动、弹性增强"特征。一方面，要专注于主业、苦练内功 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing demand for foreign exchange settlement among foreign trade enterprises as the year ends, driven by expectations of RMB appreciation, which creates a positive feedback loop for the RMB exchange rate [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Settlement - As the year-end approaches, foreign trade enterprises are accelerating the settlement of accumulated foreign exchange funds due to enhanced expectations of RMB appreciation [1] - The rise in settlement scale increases the supply of foreign exchange in the market, reinforcing demand for the RMB and strengthening its exchange rate [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - The CITIC Securities Mingming team predicts a continued weak trend for the US dollar index into 2026, influenced by narrowing interest rate differentials between the US and Japan/Europe, as well as US fiscal policy impacts [1] - The People's Bank of China's balanced exchange rate policy is expected to enhance the resilience of the RMB, with potential for the exchange rate to break the "7" mark if domestic policies effectively stimulate economic recovery [1] Group 3: Financial Strategy for Enterprises - Institutions suggest that enterprises should adopt a "risk-neutral" financial philosophy, planning ahead and scientifically hedging to minimize risks associated with exchange rate fluctuations [1]