周三公布的ADP Research数据显示，美国企业12月私营部门就业人数增加4.1万，扭转了前月的下滑趋 势（11月数据从-3.2万上修至-2.9万），但不及彭博调查中经济学家预期的5万。此前四个月中，私营部 门有三个月出现就业下滑，12月数据为年末疲软的劳动力市场带来一定积极信号。 教育与医疗服务以及休闲与酒店业成为主要拉动力量，而专业服务和制造业就业继续下滑。具体来看： 教育和医疗相关行业新增3.9万，休闲与酒店业增加2.4万，贸易、运输与公用事业增加1.1 万，金融服务增加6000人； 专业和商业服务减少2.9万，信息服务减少1.2万。 该报告发布于美国劳工部非农就业数据公布前两天。道琼斯调查显示，经济学家预计12月非农新增就业 7.3万，失业率或小幅回落至4.5%。 商品生产行业整体减少3000人，其中制造业下降5000。 按企业规模划分，几乎所有新增岗位来自雇员少于500人的中小企业，大型企业仅新增2000人。ADP首 席经济学家内拉·理查德森在报告中表示，小型企业在年末恢复招聘，但大型雇主仍在收缩用工。 薪资方面，留任员工平均年薪增速为4.4%，与上月持平；跳槽者薪资涨幅为6.6%，较上月提高0 ...

客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 师橙 市场分析 国内方面，我国外汇储备创十年新高，黄金储备14个月连增。截至2025年12月末，我国外汇储备规模为 33579亿美元，环比上升115亿美元，再创2015年12月以来新高；黄金储备规模为7415万盎司，环比增加 3万盎司，为连续第14个月增加。海外方面，美国去年12月"小非农"温和复苏。ADP数据显示，美国企 业12月私营部门就业人数增加4.1万，扭转了前月的下滑趋势，但低于市场预期。另外，美国2025年11 月JOLTS职位空缺降至714.6万个，远低于市场预期的760万个，创2024年9月以来最低水平。 期货行情与成交量： 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 2026-01-07，沪金主力合约开于1006.00元/克，收于998.90元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动-0.61%。当日 成交量为41087手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于999.40元/克，收于1002.20元/克， 较昨日午后收盘上涨0.33%。 2026-01-07，沪银主力合约开于19460.00元/千克，收于19290.00元/千克，较前一交易日收盘变 ...

Core Viewpoint - The latest ADP employment data indicates a decline in U.S. employment, leading to a drop in the U.S. dollar index [1] Group 1: Employment Data - The U.S. ADP employment number for November shows a decrease of 32,000 jobs, marking the lowest level since March 2023 [1] - Market expectations were for an increase of 10,000 jobs, highlighting a significant deviation from forecasts [1] Group 2: Currency Impact - Following the employment data release, the U.S. dollar index continued its downward trend, falling by 0.41% to a level of 98.89 [1]

沪银主力上个交易日冲高至13787，经过几次涨跌，目前还是在13500之上，在绝对强势中，还是走不出 有效的调整力度。短线来看，观察今天市场变化，有可能这波沪银会出现连续调整空间，要走出一波有 效的下跌空间，下方关注13400得失，跌破13400后才能出现空头放量。 特朗普称或将于明年初宣布美联储主席人选，并积极暗示人选是哈塞特。 经合组织：将2025年美国经济增速预期从1.8%上调至2%，将2026年预期从1.5%上调至1.7%。预计美联 储将在2026年底前"逐步"将关键利率下调至3.25%至3.5%。 今日美国11月ADP就业指标即将出炉，在非农指标暂时缺席的情况下，"小非农"的表现预计将在一定程 度上左右市场的情绪，指引市场方向。市场预期此次ADP就业人数仅增加1万，前值为4.2万，数据公布 前美指走弱的可能性仍较高。 【最新白银行情解析】 周三（12月3日）亚洲时段，白银期货短线下探，白银价格收窄日内涨幅，最新沪银主力报13557.00元/ 千克，涨幅0.48%，日内将出炉美国11月ADP就业人数，目前市场预期ADP减少，将会进一步增强降息 预期，而会支持银价。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. job market shows signs of recovery with an increase in employment, but overall growth remains limited and inflationary pressures persist, impacting consumer demand and profitability [3][4][5]. Economic Indicators - The ADP employment report for October indicates an increase of 42,000 jobs, surpassing market expectations of 28,000, following a revised loss of 29,000 jobs in September [3]. - The U.S. services sector PMI rose from 50.0 in September to 52.4 in October, suggesting a robust economic performance entering Q4, driven by strong growth in the services sector [5]. - The overall business activity growth is estimated at an annualized rate of approximately 2.5%, consistent with the solid expansion trend observed in Q3 [4]. Sector Performance - Growth in employment was primarily seen in education, healthcare, trade, transportation, and utilities, while sectors like professional business services and leisure continue to experience layoffs [3][5]. - Despite the increase in new orders, the services employment index remains below the neutral level, indicating ongoing weakness in the labor market [5]. Inflation and Cost Pressures - Service providers are facing high input costs, which they struggle to pass on to consumers, leading to potential profit margin pressures [4][5]. - The ADP report suggests that wage growth has stabilized, reflecting a balance in supply and demand dynamics in the labor market [3]. Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates remains cautious, with a 62.5% probability of a 25 basis point cut in December, influenced by ongoing economic uncertainties and employment trends [6].

Core Insights - The ADP report indicates a stronger-than-expected growth in private sector wages for October, suggesting that the labor market is not in imminent danger of collapse [1] - October saw an increase of 42,000 jobs, the largest gain since July 2025, surpassing the expected increase of 28,000 jobs [1] - The report highlights a mixed employment landscape, with certain sectors showing growth while others continue to experience job losses [4] Employment Changes by Sector - In October, the construction sector added 5,000 jobs, recovering from a loss of 5,000 jobs in September, with wage growth remaining steady at an annual rate of 4.5% [2] - The manufacturing sector saw a decrease of 3,000 jobs in October, following a loss of 2,000 jobs in September, with wage growth slightly increasing to 4.8% from 4.7% [2] - The trade, transportation, and utilities sector experienced a significant increase of 47,000 jobs in October, rebounding from a loss of 7,000 jobs in September, with wage growth stable at 4.3% [2] Financial Services and Professional Services - The financial services sector added 11,000 jobs in October, recovering from a loss of 9,000 jobs in September, with wage growth remaining at 5.2% [3] - Conversely, the professional and business services sector lost 15,000 jobs in October, following a loss of 13,000 jobs in September, with wage growth unchanged at 4.2% [4] Economic Context and Future Outlook - The ADP report is seen as a critical indicator of the U.S. labor market, especially amid ongoing government shutdowns affecting the release of official employment data [4] - Economists advise caution in interpreting the ADP data due to its reliance on private sector payrolls, which may not fully represent the national employment landscape [5] - The Federal Reserve is increasingly concerned about the labor market's weakening, with recent interest rate cuts reflecting this sentiment, although future rate cuts remain uncertain [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, emphasizing the importance of market direction and risk management for individual investors [1][2]. Market Analysis - Gold prices have recently increased, trading around $3964 per ounce, following a significant drop of $69.52 to $3931.86 per ounce [1]. - The market is currently influenced by the upcoming U.S. ADP employment data and ISM services PMI report, which are expected to shape market expectations regarding future Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [2]. Technical Analysis - The technical outlook for gold indicates a bearish trend, with expectations of further declines below $3900, as indicated by recent price movements and daily chart patterns [3][6]. - Key resistance levels are identified at $3985 and $4000, while support is noted around $3930-3920 [6]. Trading Strategies - Suggested trading strategies include short positions on gold at $3985-3990 with a target of $3950-3930, and potential long positions at $3885-3890 with a target of $3910-3930 [4]. - Emphasis is placed on strict risk management, including setting stop-loss orders to mitigate potential losses [4][6].

Core Insights - The ADP employment report for July indicates an increase of 104,000 jobs, marking the largest growth since March, surpassing market expectations of a 75,000 increase [1] Employment Data - The increase of 104,000 jobs in July represents a significant uptick in employment figures, suggesting a strengthening labor market [1] - This growth is the highest recorded since March, indicating a potential trend in job creation [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. ADP employment report for June indicates a decrease of 33,000 jobs, marking the largest decline since March 2023 [1] Employment Data - The reduction of 33,000 jobs in June is the most significant drop recorded in the ADP employment figures since March 2023 [1]

Group 1 - The upcoming release of the non-farm payroll data and the Federal Reserve's Beige Book may influence gold prices, potentially helping them break out of their current stagnation [1]