| | nimx@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586042 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货 价差 | | | | | | | | | | | RU主力 | NR主力 | BR主力 | | RU-NR | RU-BR | NR-BR | | 期 | 前日收盘价 | 17240 | 13980 | 13120 | 现值 | 3260 | 4120 | 860 | | 货 | 前2日收盘价 | 17030 | 13795 | 13160 | 前值 | 3235 | 3870 | 635 | | 市 | 涨跌 | 210 | 185 | -40 | 涨跌 | 25 | 250 | 225 | | 场 | 涨跌幅 成交量 | 1.23% 272777 | 1.34% 56602 | -0.30% 95999 | | RU基差 | 基差 混合-RU | | | | 持仓量 | 175091 | 45890 | 54835 | 现值 | -190 | -1425 | 烟片-RU 2060 ...

| | 申银万国期货研究所 倪梦雪 （从业编号F0264569 投资咨询号Z0002226） | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | nimx@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586042 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | | | | | 价差 | | | | | RU主力 | NR主力 | BR主力 | | RU-NR | RU-BR | NR-BR | | 期 | 前日收盘价 | 16335 | 13230 | 12900 | 现值 | 3105 | 3435 | 330 | | 货 | 前2日收盘价 | 16245 | 13150 | 12825 | 前值 | 3095 | 3420 | 325 | | 市 | 涨跌 | 90 | 80 | 75 | 涨跌 | 10 | 15 | 5 | | 场 | 涨跌幅 | 0.55% | 0.61% | 0.58% | | | 基差 | | | | 成交量 | 177554 | 41282 | 82067 | | RU基差 | ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On Thursday, the natural rubber futures trended downward. With domestic production areas in a state of suspension, and Thailand's northeastern region set to gradually halt production in January while its southern region is in peak season, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao continues to accumulate. In the short - term, the elasticity of the supply side weakens, and raw rubber prices remain relatively firm. The demand side supports stable production of all - steel tires. Synthetic rubber has seen a significant decline recently. It is expected that the natural rubber price will undergo oscillatory adjustments [2] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Price Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of RU, NR, and BR were 16175, 13135, and 12925 respectively, with price drops of - 210, - 165, and - 435 and percentage drops of - 1.28%, - 1.24%, and - 3.26% compared to two days ago. The spreads of RU - BR, NR - BR, and RU - NR were 3040, 3250, and 210 respectively with changes of - 45, 225, and 270 compared to the previous values [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of RU, NR, and BR were 283333, 62662, and 112386 respectively. The open interests were 12925, 50827, and - 684 respectively, with changes of - 435, - 544, and 10 [2] - **Basis**: The current basis of RU, mixed - RU, and smoke - sheet - RU were - 175, - 915, and 2125 respectively, compared to previous values of - 185, - 1260, and 2115 [2] Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Prices**: The current prices of whole - latex in Shandong, Shanghai, and Kunming were 15900, 16000, and 15800 respectively, with percentage drops of - 1.08%, - 0.93%, and - 1.23%. The prices of smoke - sheet in Shandong and Shanghai were 18300, with a percentage drop of - 1.08%. The prices of mixed rubber in Qingdao and Yunnan were 15260 and 15750 respectively, with a change of 0.89% and - 1.25% [2] - **Downstream Spot Prices**: The current prices of Thai smoke - sheet, Thai cup - lump, and Thai latex were 61, 53.52, and 59 (Thai baht/kg) respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.31%, 1.50%, and 0.34% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - On Wednesday, the natural rubber futures rebounded. With domestic rubber-producing areas in a state of suspension, and the northeastern part of Thailand gradually ceasing production in January while the southern part is in the peak season, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao, China, has been continuously increasing. In the short term, the elasticity of the supply side has weakened, and the price of raw rubber remains relatively firm. The demand side supports the stable operation of all-steel tire production. After a continuous decline, the rubber price stopped falling and rebounded, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate upward [4] Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - **Price and Change**: The previous day's closing prices of RU, NR, and BR were 16385, 13300, and 13360 respectively, with increases of 205, 165, and 115, and increases of 1.27%, 1.26%, and 0.87% respectively. The spreads of RU - NR, RU - BR, and NR - BR were 3085, 3025, and -60 respectively, with increases of 40, 90, and 50 respectively [2] - **Volume and Position**: The trading volumes of RU, NR, and BR were 245413, 43945, and 69473 respectively. The positions were 13360, 51371, and -10 respectively, with position changes of 115, 1858, and 10 respectively [2] Spot Market - **Domestic Spot**: The current prices of whole milk rubber in Shandong, Shanghai, and Kunming were 16050, 16200, and 16100 respectively, with increases of 1.26%, 1.25%, and 1.26% respectively. The current prices of smoked sheets in Shandong and Shanghai were 18500, with an increase of 0.54%. The current prices of mixed rubber in Qingdao and Yunnan were 15125 and 15950 respectively, with increases of 1.10% and 0.95% respectively [2] - **Downstream Spot**: The current prices of Thai smoked sheets, Thai cup rubber, and Thai latex were 61.19, 52.73, and 58.8 respectively, with increases of 0.96%, 0.00%, and 0.00% respectively [2]

Core Insights - The China International Consumer Products Expo (CICPE), also known as the "Consumer Expo," has become the largest consumer goods exhibition in the Asia-Pacific region since its inception in 2021, providing a significant platform for global enterprises to access the Chinese market and for Chinese companies to expand internationally [3][4] Group 1: Expo Overview - The CICPE is China's first national-level exhibition focused on consumer goods, aimed at promoting global consumer product display and trade [4] - The expo reflects the continuous expansion and upgrading of China's consumer market, which is now the second-largest in the world [5] Group 2: Market Trends and Participation - The number of participating brands has increased from 2,628 in the first expo to over 4,100 in the fifth expo, with representation from 71 countries and regions, including 65 Fortune 500 companies [7] - The expo highlights the growing importance of service-oriented consumption, with a focus on sectors such as health, elderly care, and AI [7][8] Group 3: Economic Impact and Future Projections - By 2035, it is projected that service-oriented consumption will account for approximately 55% of total consumption in China, indicating significant growth potential [10] - The expo serves as a platform for international brands to enter the Chinese market while promoting Chinese quality products abroad, enhancing the integration of domestic and international markets [10][12] Group 4: Regional Development and Policy Synergy - The CICPE is instrumental in supporting Hainan's development as an international tourism consumption center, driving innovation in various sectors such as duty-free shopping and medical tourism [13][14] - The expo aims to enhance international cooperation, particularly with RCEP regions, to address the challenges of international product and service supply in Hainan [14]