研究报告 Research Report 26 Aug 2025 中国 & 中国必需消费 China (A-share) & China (Overseas) Staples 中国必需消费品 8 月价格报告：多数品类价格再次回落 Most categories saw prices fall again [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | [Table_Info] | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 评级 | 股票名称 | 评级 | | 贵州茅台 | Outperform 华润啤酒 | | Outperform | | 贵州茅台 | Outperform 古井贡酒 | | Outperform | | 五粮液 | Outperform 青岛啤酒 | | Outperform | | 五粮液 | Outperform 海底捞 | | Outperform | | 山西汾酒 | Outperform 康师傅 | | Outperform | | 海天味业 | Outperform 今世缘 | | Outperform | ...

Investment Focus - The report highlights a focus on structural opportunities driven by policy catalysis, particularly in essential consumer sectors such as dairy products and liquor, while cautioning against the risks in the soft drink sector [7]. Demand Analysis - In July, among the eight tracked essential consumer sectors, six maintained positive growth, while two experienced negative growth. The sectors with single-digit growth included dining (+4.4%), soft drinks (+2.7%), frozen foods (+1.7%), condiments (+1.1%), dairy products (+1.1%), and beer (+0.6%). The declining sectors were high-end and above liquor (-4.0%) and mass-market liquor (-3.9%) [3][9]. - The report notes that five sectors saw a deterioration in growth rates compared to the previous month, while three improved. The new alcohol ban and adverse weather conditions were identified as significant negative factors affecting demand [3][9]. Price Trends - In July, most liquor wholesale prices stabilized after a period of decline. Specific prices included Feitian at 1915/1880/655 yuan for different packaging, with year-on-year declines of 665/500/155 yuan. The price of Wuliangye was 930 yuan, showing a slight increase of 10 yuan from the previous month [3][22][24]. - The report indicates that the prices of liquid milk and beer saw a reduction in discount rates, while soft drink discounts increased, with stable prices for infant formula, convenience foods, and condiments [4][19]. Cost Analysis - The report states that the spot cost index for various sectors, including dairy, soft drinks, frozen foods, and beer, generally decreased in July, while futures cost indices showed mixed results. For instance, the spot cost index for dairy products fell by 2.92% [4]. Fund Flow - As of the end of July, net inflows into Hong Kong Stock Connect amounted to 124.1 billion yuan, with the essential consumer sector's market capitalization share rising to 5.05%. The food additives sector saw a decrease in share, while the dairy sector experienced an increase [5]. Valuation Insights - By the end of July, the historical PE ratio for the food and beverage sector was at 16% (20.2x), remaining stable from the previous month. The report notes that the median valuation for leading A-share companies was 20x, a decrease of 1x from the previous month [6]. Sector Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors benefiting from policy support, particularly dairy and liquor, while being cautious about the soft drink sector's marginal deterioration. Specific companies to watch include China Feihe, Yili, Mengniu, Master Kong, Uni-President, Yanghe, WH Group, and China Foods [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the strong performance of Foshan Haitian Flavoring and Food Co., Ltd. (Haitian) in Q1 2025, with revenue of 8.315 billion yuan and net profit of 2.202 billion yuan, showcasing the resilience of a leading enterprise [1] - Haitian's organic soy sauce, recognized for its "excellent quality" and "health positioning," has become a new growth driver, reflecting the company's precise grasp of consumer trends and deep innovation across the entire industry chain [1][3] - The organic food market in China is projected to reach 62 billion yuan in 2024, with the organic seasoning market expected to exceed 80 billion yuan in 2025, indicating significant potential in the organic seasoning market [3] Group 2 - Haitian's organic soy sauce is produced from non-GMO organic soybeans and wheat, adhering strictly to organic food requirements, and has received organic certification from China, the US, and Europe [3] - The "Lighthouse Factory" smart manufacturing system ensures stable output of organic soy sauce, utilizing AI technology for quality assurance and real-time monitoring of production parameters [4] - In 2024, Haitian achieved a revenue of 26.901 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.53%, and a net profit of 6.344 billion yuan, up 12.75%, demonstrating the effectiveness of its supply chain upgrades and cost optimization [6]

Investment Focus - The report emphasizes the strategy of investing in stocks with high dividends and improved fundamentals, particularly in the essential consumer sector [1][6] - Key stocks recommended for investment include Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili, all rated as "Outperform" [1] Industry Overview - In May 2025, six out of eight tracked industries maintained positive growth, with the restaurant sector growing by 3.7%, beer by 3.3%, and soft drinks by 3.1% [3][8] - The industries experiencing negative growth include mass-market and above mid-range liquor, with declines of 13.0% and 2.5% respectively [3][8] Price Trends - In May, the price of Moutai continued to decline, while high-end products like Wuliangye stabilized [4] - The overall price trend in the liquor market showed more declines than increases, particularly in the mid-range segment [4][10] Cost Analysis - The cost index for soft drinks, seasonings, and other categories showed slight increases, while beer and instant noodles experienced declines [4] - Packaging material prices have decreased significantly compared to last year, with aluminum can prices up by 12.01% [4] Fund Flows - As of the end of May, net inflows into Hong Kong Stock Connect amounted to 41.99 billion yuan, with the essential consumer sector's market capitalization share at 5.65% [5] - The food additives sector saw an increase in market share, while the dairy sector experienced a slight decrease [5] Valuation Metrics - The PE historical percentile for A-share food and beverage stocks was 19% (21.5x), a decrease from the previous month [5] - H-share essential consumer sector PE historical percentile increased to 34% (18.8x), reflecting a rise in valuation [5] Recommendations - The report suggests waiting for opportunities or buying high-dividend stocks, as the current fundamentals lack catalysts for growth [6] - Key stocks with high dividend yields include Master Kong, Uni-President, and China Feihe, among others [6]

Core Viewpoint - Foshan Haitian Flavoring and Food Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Haitian") has officially announced plans to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking a significant step in its globalization strategy aimed at enhancing its international brand image and overall competitiveness [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Haitian is recognized as a leader in China's condiment industry, often referred to as the "soy sauce king," and has a strong reputation for quality and historical depth among consumers [1] - The company has been actively expanding its international market presence, striving to bring Haitian's flavors to a global audience [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first half of this year, Haitian achieved operating revenue of 14.156 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.18%, and a net profit of 3.453 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11.52% [3] - The net cash flow from operating activities reached 1.127 billion yuan, indicating strong profitability and cash flow status [3] - Despite facing its first revenue decline in nearly a decade in 2023, the company has not stagnated but has instead focused on enhancing product quality and diversifying its offerings to meet consumer demands [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Haitian plans to continue deepening brand development, improving product quality and service levels to meet the diverse needs of domestic and international consumers [5] - The company aims to explore new market opportunities and growth points, striving to become a leader in the global condiment industry [5]