智通财经APP获悉，美国联邦政府停摆危机迫在眉睫，或将导致政策制定者、企业领袖和投资者无法获 取评估美国经济状况所需的关键数据。 当前，外界对特朗普各项政策给美国经济带来的影响仍存疑虑，在此背景下，联邦政府发布的就业、通 胀及消费数据显得尤为重要。数据的任何延迟都可能干扰关键政策决策——例如，美联储下月召开会议 时，是否应再次降息的判断便会受此影响。 安永帕特农首席经济学家Gregory Daco表示："没人愿意在本就迷雾重重的环境中'盲目航行'。" 若政府在9月30日后停摆，首当其冲受影响的重要数据将是原定于10月3日发布的劳工统计局就业报告。 该机构发布的核心通胀数据——消费者价格指数(CPI)将是下一个可能延期的关键指标，而人口普查局 计划发布的零售销售数据及新住宅建设数据，同样面临延迟风险。 | Indicator | Scheduled date | | --- | --- | | Initial jobless claims | Oct. 2, 9, 16 | | Monthly jobs report | Oct. 3 | | Trade balance | Oct. 7 | | Consume ...

智通财经APP获悉，预测市场数据显示，美国联邦政府本周三关门的概率已攀升至约70%，投资者愈发 怀疑国会能否在最后时刻达成协议，以维持政府运作资金。 据Kalshi和Polymarket平台显示，在美国劳工部(DOL)宣布若政府关门将不发布本周五备受华尔街关注的 非农就业报告后，市场押注政府关门的交易明显增加。就在上周末，关门概率还维持在50%左右。 劳工部上周五公布了一份73页的应急预案，表示若政府关门，将进入"新闻与数据发布停摆"状态，并只 保留少数必要职能。劳工部旗下的劳工统计局(BLS)将全面暂停运作，期间所有计划发布的经济数据将 被延迟或取消。 这意味着原定于本周五发布的9月非农就业报告将被推迟，这是美联储在10月会议前的重要参考指标。 此外，每周四公布的初请失业金人数报告以及将于10月15日发布的消费者价格指数(CPI)也将受到影 响。CPI是10月28-29日美联储利率决议前最后一次通胀数据，若无法按时公布，将使市场失去关键指 引。 BLS每月通常会发布十余份经济报告，涵盖进出口价格、工资数据以及其他与消费者和就业相关的重要 指标。若政府关门持续，这些报告的数据收集工作也将全面停止。劳工部在文件 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is expected to show data that may be below expectations, which has led to an increase in U.S. stock index futures. A significantly lower CPI could increase the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points [1] Group 1 - The CPI report is set to be released tomorrow, indicating potential market movements based on its results [1] - A lower-than-expected CPI, particularly a substantial deviation from expectations, could enhance the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI), excluding food and energy, has recorded its largest month-over-month decline in the past decade [1]

美国8月份生产者价格指数(PPI)预计将同比增长3.3%，增速与7月份持平。 市场普遍预期美联储将在9月份下调政策利率，降息50个基点的可能性有所上升。 在周四公布CPI数据之前，8月份的PPI数据对美元的影响可能有限。 通胀是美联储（Fed）制定货币政策决策的两个依据之一。各国央行在通胀压力加大时往往采取强硬立场，而在通胀压力缓解时则 倾向于鸽派立场。 这两个指数都衡量通胀，CPI关注消费者购买的商品和服务总价值，而PPI则衡量批发或生产者层面的通胀。一般而言，PPI的上涨 最终会反映在CPI中，因为生产者会将更高的价格转嫁给消费者。如果PPI数据先于CPI数据发布，则可以作为价格压力上升的早 期指标。 下一份PPI数据报告将带来哪些预期？ 预计美国8月份生产者通胀率（PPI）年率将上升3.3%，7月份的数据与此类似。扣除波动较大的食品和能源价格的核心PPI通胀率 预计将同比上涨3.5%，低于上月的3.7%。预计本月PPI和核心PPI将分别上涨0.3%。 CPI报告通常对金融市场产生更广泛的影响，鉴于其发布时间晚于PPI报告24小时，PPI报告对美元的影响可能会有所减弱。 鉴于上周公布的就业数据表现疲软，市 ...

Group 1 - The TIPS market, valued at $2 trillion, is at risk if the credibility of the BLS data is compromised due to political interference [1] - The principal value of TIPS is directly linked to the CPI compiled by the BLS, making the integrity of this data crucial for the market [1][2] - Recent weak employment data has led to increased speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, impacting short-term bond yields [2] Group 2 - TIPS have performed well over the past year, with the Bloomberg U.S. Inflation-Linked Bond Index up 5.7% in 2025, indicating strong demand amid persistent inflation [3] - TIPS currently account for approximately 7% of the total U.S. government debt, reflecting their growing importance in the debt market [3] - The U.S. Treasury is expected to increase TIPS issuance to meet substantial government debt financing needs following the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the stability of prices and high unemployment data, leading to market speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year [1][4][6] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for May showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, which was below market expectations of 0.2%. The core PPI, excluding food and energy, also rose by 0.1%, lower than the anticipated 0.3% [3] - The unemployment claims data indicated that initial claims for unemployment benefits remained stable at 248,000, exceeding market expectations of 240,000. The number of continuing claims rose to 1.956 million, higher than the expected 1.91 million, suggesting prolonged job search times for unemployed individuals [5] Group 2 - The market reacted to the PPI and unemployment data, with U.S. stock indices showing slight gains, indicating investor optimism regarding potential Federal Reserve actions [1][2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its interest rate decision on June 19, with a 61% probability of a rate cut in September and a 78% chance of two or more cuts by December, according to market expectations [7] - The two-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to 3.891%, reflecting market sensitivity to the Federal Reserve's potential monetary policy changes [7]