除CPI外，高盛预估美联储青睐的通胀指标——核心个人消费支出(PCE)价格指数在10月和11月的环比 平均涨幅为0.12%。该行预估10月增长0.10%，11月增长0.14%，这将使11月核心PCE同比增速从9月的 2.83%降至2.66%。 尽管这一轨迹支持了通胀大趋势下行的说法，但高盛警告不要过度解读近期CPI的疲软。该行指出，美 国劳工统计局(BLS)尚未明确将如何解决已发现的数据失真问题，这增加了近期部分拖累因素在未来几 个月发生反转的可能性。 智通财经APP获悉，高盛表示，12月18日公布的最新美国消费者价格指数(CPI)数据不太可能实质性改 变美联储的近期政策前景。该行认为，政策制定者将转而关注在1月联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议之 前还将发布的后续通胀数据。 在CPI数据发布后的报告中，高盛表示，尽管整体和核心指标继续显示通胀放缓有所进展，但今日的数 据"不太可能影响美联储的决策"。该行强调，将在美联储1月会议前夕发布的12月通胀数据，对于政策 制定者评估价格压力是否在持续降温具有更大的意义。 高盛的分析指出，近期核心CPI低于预期的表现主要由技术性和时间相关因素驱动，而非潜在通胀的全 面缓 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown has led to significant disruptions in the collection of economic data, making it difficult to assess the current economic situation [1][2] - Economic advisor Hassett indicated that some surveys may never be completed, resulting in a lack of data for October [1] - The shutdown has raised concerns about the inability of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October and other employment-related surveys [1] Group 2 - The government shutdown, which began on October 1, has severely impacted various sectors, including food assistance, healthcare benefits, and aviation [2] - A temporary funding bill was passed by the Senate on November 10, which may resolve the shutdown crisis, but it still requires approval from the House of Representatives and the President [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown has created a "black hole" in economic data, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to make informed decisions ahead of the December meeting [2][5] - Economists predict that the delayed September employment report may be released shortly after the government reopens, but the October and November data will face significant delays due to the shutdown [2][3] - The current shutdown is the longest in history, lasting more than twice as long as the one in 2013, which has severely impacted the release of economic data for multiple months [4] Group 2 - The uncertainty surrounding economic data is causing the Federal Reserve to be more cautious in its monetary policy adjustments, as highlighted by KPMG's chief economist [5] - The reliance on estimation models for calculating the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October and November may lead to greater inaccuracies in the data [5] - Key retail sales and inflation data for October are expected to be released around December 18, after the Federal Reserve's meeting has concluded [7]

Core Points - The impending U.S. government shutdown may hinder policymakers, business leaders, and investors from accessing critical economic data needed to assess the U.S. economy [1] - If Congress fails to reach an agreement by the end of the fiscal year, many federal agencies will cease operations, and the Labor Statistics Bureau will stop releasing key economic data [1][2] - The delay in the release of employment, inflation, and consumer data could disrupt key policy decisions, such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [1][4] Economic Data Impact - Key economic indicators scheduled for release, such as the monthly jobs report and consumer price index (CPI), are at risk of being delayed due to the shutdown [2][3] - The Labor Department has indicated that all operations and data collection will pause during the budget funding interruption, affecting the timely release of economic data [2] - Historical context shows that during previous shutdowns, the Labor Statistics Bureau was forced to delay the release of important reports, impacting economic assessments [3] Federal Reserve Considerations - The Federal Reserve's next meeting is scheduled for October 28-29, and the lack of updated government data will complicate the justification for further interest rate cuts [4] - Some Federal Reserve officials are cautious about rate cuts and prefer to wait for more data before making decisions [4] - The uncertainty caused by the government shutdown is expected to increase economic costs and hinder growth, according to business leaders [4]

Group 1 - The probability of a U.S. federal government shutdown has risen to approximately 70%, with increasing skepticism among investors regarding Congress's ability to reach an agreement to fund government operations [1] - The U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) announced that if a government shutdown occurs, it will not release the highly anticipated non-farm payroll report this Friday, which is a crucial indicator for the Federal Reserve ahead of its October meeting [1] - The DOL's emergency plan indicates that if the government shuts down, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will cease operations, delaying or canceling all scheduled economic data releases, including the weekly initial jobless claims report and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [1][2] Group 2 - The current impasse in Congress stems from disagreements over healthcare policy in the appropriations bill, with Democrats insisting that any bill to avoid a shutdown must include extensions for the Affordable Care Act tax subsidies, while Republicans prefer to discuss these issues after passing a short-term funding bill [2] - President Trump met with key congressional leaders to discuss potential solutions to avoid a government shutdown, noting that at least seven Democratic senators would need to support the Republican version of a temporary funding bill [2] - The Trump administration has instructed federal agencies to prepare for large-scale permanent layoffs if Congress fails to reach an agreement, indicating that this shutdown could have more profound social and economic impacts compared to previous temporary furloughs of federal employees [2]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is expected to show data that may be below expectations, which has led to an increase in U.S. stock index futures. A significantly lower CPI could increase the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points [1] Group 1 - The CPI report is set to be released tomorrow, indicating potential market movements based on its results [1] - A lower-than-expected CPI, particularly a substantial deviation from expectations, could enhance the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI), excluding food and energy, has recorded its largest month-over-month decline in the past decade [1]

Core Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for August in the U.S. is expected to show a year-over-year increase of 3.3%, maintaining the same growth rate as July [1][3] - Market expectations indicate a higher likelihood of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 50 basis points in September, with a 50 basis point cut becoming more probable [1][4] - The upcoming PPI data is anticipated to have a limited impact on the dollar prior to the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data [1][3] PPI and CPI Overview - The PPI report, compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), is set to be released on Wednesday, a day earlier than the CPI report [3] - PPI measures wholesale or producer-level inflation, while CPI focuses on the total value of goods and services purchased by consumers [3] - The core PPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is projected to rise by 3.5% year-over-year, down from 3.7% in the previous month [3] Market Reactions and Federal Reserve Expectations - Following the release of weak employment data, market participants have fully priced in the expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [4] - The likelihood of a 25 basis point cut stands at 88.2%, while the chance of a 50 basis point cut is at 11.8% [4] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's comments at the Jackson Hole symposium have significantly influenced market expectations regarding potential rate cuts [4][5] Currency Market Implications - The PPI report is expected to influence the euro/dollar exchange rate, with current trading above the 1.1700 mark [5] - Analysts suggest that if the euro/dollar breaks below the support level of 1.1700, it may test buyer resolve around 1.1650 [5] - The euro/dollar may not see further increases post-PPI release, but could rise following the CPI data release, with a key level to watch at 1.1900 [5]

Group 1 - The TIPS market, valued at $2 trillion, is at risk if the credibility of the BLS data is compromised due to political interference [1] - The principal value of TIPS is directly linked to the CPI compiled by the BLS, making the integrity of this data crucial for the market [1][2] - Recent weak employment data has led to increased speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, impacting short-term bond yields [2] Group 2 - TIPS have performed well over the past year, with the Bloomberg U.S. Inflation-Linked Bond Index up 5.7% in 2025, indicating strong demand amid persistent inflation [3] - TIPS currently account for approximately 7% of the total U.S. government debt, reflecting their growing importance in the debt market [3] - The U.S. Treasury is expected to increase TIPS issuance to meet substantial government debt financing needs following the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the stability of prices and high unemployment data, leading to market speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year [1][4][6] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for May showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, which was below market expectations of 0.2%. The core PPI, excluding food and energy, also rose by 0.1%, lower than the anticipated 0.3% [3] - The unemployment claims data indicated that initial claims for unemployment benefits remained stable at 248,000, exceeding market expectations of 240,000. The number of continuing claims rose to 1.956 million, higher than the expected 1.91 million, suggesting prolonged job search times for unemployed individuals [5] Group 2 - The market reacted to the PPI and unemployment data, with U.S. stock indices showing slight gains, indicating investor optimism regarding potential Federal Reserve actions [1][2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its interest rate decision on June 19, with a 61% probability of a rate cut in September and a 78% chance of two or more cuts by December, according to market expectations [7] - The two-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to 3.891%, reflecting market sensitivity to the Federal Reserve's potential monetary policy changes [7]