美官员：美政府长时间"停摆"，经济数据或遭遇"断档" 中新网11月12日电 (记者 张乃月)当地时间11日，美国白宫经济顾问哈塞特表示，由于美国联邦政府创 纪录的长期关门，一些原本计划在10月份收集的经济数据可能永远无法记录，这将使全面评估美国经济 状况变得困难。 "我听说，有些调查实际上从未完成，所以我们可能永远也不会知道那个月发生了什么。"哈塞特表 示，"在数据机构恢复(运行)之前，我们将陷入一段时间的迷雾。" 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 哈塞特此前曾表示，"停摆"对美国经济影响远超预期，可能对政府高效运作造成长期损害，还可能导致 美国第四季度GDP增长放缓。 美国联邦政府自10月1日开始"停摆"。这场由两党政治博弈引发的治理危机严重冲击食品救济、医保福 利、民航交通等多个民生领域。11月10日，美国参议院通过了一项临时拨款法案，有望化解"停摆"危 机。不过，该法案仍需众议院批准并送交总统签署。 来源：中国新闻网 编辑：董文博 本文为转载内 ...

★倒计时最后2天｜见闻11.11活动，全场会员产品全年最低价！点击链接详情>> 数据真空状态直接影响政策清晰度。KPMG首席经济学家Diane Swonk表示，数据不确定性是美联储对调整货币政策"感到有些紧张"的众多原因之一。 对于市场高度关注的数据发布时间表，摩根士丹利的首席经济学家Michael Gapen预测，10月和11月的就业报告或能在12月8日发布，正好赶在美联储会前。 他同时提醒，本次停摆时长是2013年的两倍多，历史经验的参考价值有限。 这场自10月1日开始的史上最长政府停摆，已严重影响了多个月份的经济数据发布。 数据"迷雾"笼罩决策，联储或更趋谨慎 即便美国政府停摆僵局有望本周结束，但其造成的经济数据"黑洞"短期内难以填补，或将导致美联储在缺乏关键指引的情况下，步入12月的议息会议。 当前，市场普遍预期，一旦政府重新开门，积压的9月份经济报告将很快发布，但更关键的10月和11月数据正面临严重延误。 据经济学家预计，政府恢复运作后，被推迟的9月就业报告可能在三天内发布。EY-Parthenon的首席经济学家Gregory Daco指出，该报告在停摆前已"基本就 绪"。 然而，由于停摆阻碍了10 ...

Core Points - The impending U.S. government shutdown may hinder policymakers, business leaders, and investors from accessing critical economic data needed to assess the U.S. economy [1] - If Congress fails to reach an agreement by the end of the fiscal year, many federal agencies will cease operations, and the Labor Statistics Bureau will stop releasing key economic data [1][2] - The delay in the release of employment, inflation, and consumer data could disrupt key policy decisions, such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [1][4] Economic Data Impact - Key economic indicators scheduled for release, such as the monthly jobs report and consumer price index (CPI), are at risk of being delayed due to the shutdown [2][3] - The Labor Department has indicated that all operations and data collection will pause during the budget funding interruption, affecting the timely release of economic data [2] - Historical context shows that during previous shutdowns, the Labor Statistics Bureau was forced to delay the release of important reports, impacting economic assessments [3] Federal Reserve Considerations - The Federal Reserve's next meeting is scheduled for October 28-29, and the lack of updated government data will complicate the justification for further interest rate cuts [4] - Some Federal Reserve officials are cautious about rate cuts and prefer to wait for more data before making decisions [4] - The uncertainty caused by the government shutdown is expected to increase economic costs and hinder growth, according to business leaders [4]

Group 1 - The probability of a U.S. federal government shutdown has risen to approximately 70%, with increasing skepticism among investors regarding Congress's ability to reach an agreement to fund government operations [1] - The U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) announced that if a government shutdown occurs, it will not release the highly anticipated non-farm payroll report this Friday, which is a crucial indicator for the Federal Reserve ahead of its October meeting [1] - The DOL's emergency plan indicates that if the government shuts down, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will cease operations, delaying or canceling all scheduled economic data releases, including the weekly initial jobless claims report and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [1][2] Group 2 - The current impasse in Congress stems from disagreements over healthcare policy in the appropriations bill, with Democrats insisting that any bill to avoid a shutdown must include extensions for the Affordable Care Act tax subsidies, while Republicans prefer to discuss these issues after passing a short-term funding bill [2] - President Trump met with key congressional leaders to discuss potential solutions to avoid a government shutdown, noting that at least seven Democratic senators would need to support the Republican version of a temporary funding bill [2] - The Trump administration has instructed federal agencies to prepare for large-scale permanent layoffs if Congress fails to reach an agreement, indicating that this shutdown could have more profound social and economic impacts compared to previous temporary furloughs of federal employees [2]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is expected to show data that may be below expectations, which has led to an increase in U.S. stock index futures. A significantly lower CPI could increase the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points [1] Group 1 - The CPI report is set to be released tomorrow, indicating potential market movements based on its results [1] - A lower-than-expected CPI, particularly a substantial deviation from expectations, could enhance the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI), excluding food and energy, has recorded its largest month-over-month decline in the past decade [1]

Core Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for August in the U.S. is expected to show a year-over-year increase of 3.3%, maintaining the same growth rate as July [1][3] - Market expectations indicate a higher likelihood of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 50 basis points in September, with a 50 basis point cut becoming more probable [1][4] - The upcoming PPI data is anticipated to have a limited impact on the dollar prior to the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data [1][3] PPI and CPI Overview - The PPI report, compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), is set to be released on Wednesday, a day earlier than the CPI report [3] - PPI measures wholesale or producer-level inflation, while CPI focuses on the total value of goods and services purchased by consumers [3] - The core PPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is projected to rise by 3.5% year-over-year, down from 3.7% in the previous month [3] Market Reactions and Federal Reserve Expectations - Following the release of weak employment data, market participants have fully priced in the expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [4] - The likelihood of a 25 basis point cut stands at 88.2%, while the chance of a 50 basis point cut is at 11.8% [4] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's comments at the Jackson Hole symposium have significantly influenced market expectations regarding potential rate cuts [4][5] Currency Market Implications - The PPI report is expected to influence the euro/dollar exchange rate, with current trading above the 1.1700 mark [5] - Analysts suggest that if the euro/dollar breaks below the support level of 1.1700, it may test buyer resolve around 1.1650 [5] - The euro/dollar may not see further increases post-PPI release, but could rise following the CPI data release, with a key level to watch at 1.1900 [5]

Group 1 - The TIPS market, valued at $2 trillion, is at risk if the credibility of the BLS data is compromised due to political interference [1] - The principal value of TIPS is directly linked to the CPI compiled by the BLS, making the integrity of this data crucial for the market [1][2] - Recent weak employment data has led to increased speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, impacting short-term bond yields [2] Group 2 - TIPS have performed well over the past year, with the Bloomberg U.S. Inflation-Linked Bond Index up 5.7% in 2025, indicating strong demand amid persistent inflation [3] - TIPS currently account for approximately 7% of the total U.S. government debt, reflecting their growing importance in the debt market [3] - The U.S. Treasury is expected to increase TIPS issuance to meet substantial government debt financing needs following the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the stability of prices and high unemployment data, leading to market speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year [1][4][6] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for May showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, which was below market expectations of 0.2%. The core PPI, excluding food and energy, also rose by 0.1%, lower than the anticipated 0.3% [3] - The unemployment claims data indicated that initial claims for unemployment benefits remained stable at 248,000, exceeding market expectations of 240,000. The number of continuing claims rose to 1.956 million, higher than the expected 1.91 million, suggesting prolonged job search times for unemployed individuals [5] Group 2 - The market reacted to the PPI and unemployment data, with U.S. stock indices showing slight gains, indicating investor optimism regarding potential Federal Reserve actions [1][2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its interest rate decision on June 19, with a 61% probability of a rate cut in September and a 78% chance of two or more cuts by December, according to market expectations [7] - The two-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to 3.891%, reflecting market sensitivity to the Federal Reserve's potential monetary policy changes [7]