Two economic-data releases originally scheduled for next week will be delayed as the government's statistics agencies continue to recover from the recent prolonged shutdown. ...

然而，投资者的视线正迅速从华盛顿的政治僵局转向一个更大的不确定性来源：因停摆而延迟发布的关键经济数据，以及这些数据将如何影响美 联储未来的利率路径。 数据"迷雾"笼罩市场，投资者等待经济前景明朗化 美国政府的长期停摆不仅干扰了公共服务，更制造了一个巨大的经济"数据真空"，这成为投资者和决策者面临的首要挑战。白宫已确认，由于停 摆，包括就业数据和10月消费者价格指数（CPI）在内的关键指标不太可能按时发布。 Principal Asset Management的Seema Shah也表示，当前真正的挑战并非停摆对经济增长造成的短期拖累，而是投资者和美联储因缺乏数据而越来越 难以判断经济前景。 据CCTV国际时讯，当地时间11月12日晚，美国总统特朗普在白宫签署法案，美国史上最长纪录的政府"停摆"正式结束。消息传来，全球股市延 续涨势，一度逼近历史高点。 美股期货收复稍早失地，标普500指数期货录得上涨，欧洲股市期货预示将再创历史新高，亚洲股市也收涨。与此同时，对美联储一旦政府恢复运 作后可能降息的预期，支撑黄金价格连续第五天上涨。 "虽然市场正在消化政府停摆结束的消息，但我们面前还有一座更大的山要翻越，那就是所 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. federal government shutdown has delayed nearly all federal economic data releases for September and October, but it appears to be nearing an end, which will allow for the resumption of data collection and reporting [2][3] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is responsible for key reports such as nonfarm payrolls and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which are expected to be released soon after the government reopens [4] - Economic indicators suggest a slowing labor market and inflation remaining above the Federal Reserve's comfort level, with expectations of gradual deceleration through 2026 [6][8] Economic Data Delays - The shutdown has caused significant delays in the release of important economic reports, including nonfarm payrolls, CPI, retail sales, and personal spending and income [2][5] - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the October jobs report will be released shortly after the reopening, potentially by next Tuesday or Wednesday, but other major data releases may be delayed by at least a week [4][5] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that despite the data freeze, alternative data sources suggest that the macroeconomic picture has not changed significantly [6][7] - Powell noted that the labor market is gradually cooling, and inflation remains elevated, with the key inflation rate estimated at 2.8% for September, above the Fed's 2% target [7][8] Economic Growth Projections - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker estimates third-quarter growth at a 4% rate, while Goldman Sachs projects fourth-quarter growth at 1.3%, an upward revision from previous forecasts, indicating a full-year growth pace of 2% [9]

★倒计时最后2天｜见闻11.11活动，全场会员产品全年最低价！点击链接详情>> 数据真空状态直接影响政策清晰度。KPMG首席经济学家Diane Swonk表示，数据不确定性是美联储对调整货币政策"感到有些紧张"的众多原因之一。 对于市场高度关注的数据发布时间表，摩根士丹利的首席经济学家Michael Gapen预测，10月和11月的就业报告或能在12月8日发布，正好赶在美联储会前。 他同时提醒，本次停摆时长是2013年的两倍多，历史经验的参考价值有限。 这场自10月1日开始的史上最长政府停摆，已严重影响了多个月份的经济数据发布。 数据"迷雾"笼罩决策，联储或更趋谨慎 即便美国政府停摆僵局有望本周结束，但其造成的经济数据"黑洞"短期内难以填补，或将导致美联储在缺乏关键指引的情况下，步入12月的议息会议。 当前，市场普遍预期，一旦政府重新开门，积压的9月份经济报告将很快发布，但更关键的10月和11月数据正面临严重延误。 据经济学家预计，政府恢复运作后，被推迟的9月就业报告可能在三天内发布。EY-Parthenon的首席经济学家Gregory Daco指出，该报告在停摆前已"基本就 绪"。 然而，由于停摆阻碍了10 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term copper prices are likely to remain high, which may suppress consumption and pose a risk of adjustment and decline. In the medium - term, the strategy of buying on dips remains unchanged [5][62]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Report Summary - US employment data showed an unexpected decline, far lower than market expectations, which may lead the Federal Reserve to implement further monetary easing policies [5]. - China's manufacturing PMI rose by 0.4 percentage points, non - manufacturing PMI fell by 0.3 percentage points, and the comprehensive PMI output index rose by 0.1 percentage points, indicating a slight acceleration in overall economic output expansion [5]. - The US government "shutdown" increased overseas macro - uncertainty, and the release of economic data was delayed, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to make accurate monetary policies [5]. - Due to the mud accident at the Indonesian mine, copper supply was disrupted. Domestic smelters were in a high - maintenance period, and refined copper production was expected to decline, but inventory would increase [5]. - High copper prices may suppress consumption in the short - term, but in the medium - term, copper prices are likely to remain high and volatile [5]. 3.2 Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish Factors**: Refined copper production is expected to decline, and the copper concentrate processing fee remains low, indicating tight supply at the mine end [8]. - **Bearish Factors**: Social inventory is accumulating, high copper prices may suppress consumption, and overseas macro - uncertainty has increased [8]. - Overseas political fluctuations have increased, further strengthening the market's expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut [9]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Copper Ore Imports**: In August, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2.759 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to August were 20.054 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [20]. - **Copper Concentrate TC**: As of the week of September 26, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 40.68 US dollars per dry ton, up 0.66 US dollars per dry ton from the previous week. The mud accident at the Indonesian mine increased market concerns about copper supply [24]. - **Refined Copper Supply**: In August, China's refined copper output was 1.301 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. In October, domestic smelters will conduct large - scale maintenance, which may lead to a phased tightening of refined copper supply [28]. - **Scrap Copper Imports**: In August, China's scrap copper imports were 179,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.6% and a year - on - year increase of 5.8%. The decline was due to factors such as import losses, extreme weather, and reduced overseas exports [32]. - **Copper Products Output**: In August, China's copper products output was 2.222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.8% and a month - on - month increase of 2%, reaching a high level in the same period over the years [36]. - **Copper Consumption**: The price of refined copper spot has risen significantly, which is not conducive to refined copper consumption. As of October 9, the refined - scrap spread was around 390 yuan per ton [40]. - **Inventory**: LME copper inventory continued to decline last week, while SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3.79% in the week of September 30. Domestic social inventory increased, with the electrolytic copper spot inventory reaching 167,900 tons on October 9, an increase of 11,200 tons compared with September 29 [55]. - **Spot Premium**: On October 9, the spot premium of Shanghai Wumaotrade 1 copper changed from discount to premium, and the LME 0 - 3 spot discount narrowed [59]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - **Home Appliance Industry**: In August, the output of household refrigerators increased by 2.5% year - on - year, and the output of household air conditioners increased by 9.4% year - on - year. However, in the fourth quarter, the home appliance industry is expected to face pressure of slowing growth [44]. - **Real Estate Industry**: In August, real estate sales, investment, new construction, and completion all declined year - on - year. Although some first - tier cities have introduced policies to support the market, the real estate market is still under pressure, and copper demand in the real estate sector remains weak [48]. - **Automobile Industry**: In August, traditional automobile production and sales increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. New energy vehicle production and sales also showed strong growth, with a year - on - year increase of 27.4% and 26.8% respectively, and the market demand is strong [52]. 3.5 Market Outlook - Short - term copper prices are likely to remain high, which may suppress consumption and pose a risk of adjustment and decline. In the medium - term, the strategy of buying on dips remains unchanged [5][62].

Core Points - The U.S. Senate has repeatedly rejected both Democratic and Republican short-term funding proposals, leading to a government shutdown, the first in nearly seven years [1][3] - Vice President Vance warned that prolonged shutdowns could result in layoffs within the Trump administration [1][2] Group 1: Legislative Actions - The Senate voted against the Democratic proposal with a vote of 47 in favor and 53 against, and the Republican proposal was also rejected despite receiving support from three Democratic senators, resulting in a 55 to 45 vote [3] - The Republican proposal aimed to fund the government until November 21 and included an additional $88 million for security, but did not include healthcare provisions demanded by Democrats [3] - The Democratic alternative sought to extend funding until October 31 and included provisions for extending Obamacare subsidies and reversing cuts to Medicaid [3] Group 2: Political Dynamics - Republican leaders stated they would not modify the temporary funding bill passed by the House, with House Speaker Mike Johnson asserting there was nothing to negotiate [4] - Senate Republican leader John Thune blamed Democrats for the deadlock, while Democratic leader Chuck Schumer accused Republicans of attempting to coerce Democratic support for the temporary resolution [4] Group 3: Economic Impact - The government shutdown has led to hundreds of thousands of federal employees facing unpaid leave, with critical economic data releases potentially delayed, adding uncertainty to Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions [2][5] - Key reports, including employment and inflation data, may be postponed, complicating the Fed's ability to assess economic conditions [5] - Historical data suggests that a government shutdown can significantly impact GDP growth, with Goldman Sachs estimating a reduction of 15 basis points per week of shutdown [5] Group 4: Layoff Considerations - The White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has instructed federal agencies to prepare for large-scale layoffs beyond traditional temporary furloughs [6] - The Trump administration plans to freeze $18 billion in federal infrastructure project funding, directly affecting projects in Democratic leaders' districts [6] - Some Republican senators expressed concerns that aggressive layoff strategies could provoke voter backlash and complicate future legislative efforts [6]

Federal Programs and Social Security - Social Security checks and electronic payments will continue to be delivered during a government shutdown, ensuring retirees receive their monthly benefits [2] - Medicare and Medicaid programs are protected from funding shortfalls, meaning healthcare benefits will not be disrupted [2] SNAP and WIC Benefits - SNAP and WIC benefits can continue if the funding shutdown is not prolonged, although WIC may be more vulnerable due to its tight budget [3] Student Loans - A government shutdown could significantly impact student loan borrowers, as many Department of Education employees may be temporarily laid off, following a previous workforce reduction of about 50% [3] - While mandatory funding programs like Pell Grants and Federal Direct Student Loans can still make payments, this may only last as long as available funds [4] - Fewer federal employees could delay loan processing and forgiveness, complicating issue resolution for borrowers [5] Travel Services - Essential federal workers, including airport security and air traffic control, will continue working, but travelers should expect potential delays [5] - Passport and visa services will remain operational as long as fees are available, but delays in issuance may occur [6] Economic Impact - The economic impact of a government shutdown will depend on its duration, with delayed government payments potentially having a minor effect if resolved quickly [10] - A longer shutdown could delay the release of critical economic data, increasing the risk of missteps by the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates [12] Investments - Investor sentiment may be negatively affected in the short term, particularly if the shutdown disrupts the Fed's rate-lowering agenda, leading to temporary market volatility [13] - Gold prices are expected to remain strong as a safe-haven asset during economic uncertainty [14] Government Paychecks - Nonessential federal employees will not be paid until the government reopens, and contractors may implement temporary employment cutbacks [15] Other Federal Services - The IRS will likely reduce staff during a shutdown, affecting phone support, but tax payments will still be collected [16] - Mail delivery services will remain unaffected, and federal courts will continue to operate [18]