Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government shutdown is creating a "blind" situation for policymakers at a critical moment for the economy, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rates due to a lack of updated economic data [1] Impact on Economic Data Collection - The government shutdown is significantly affecting the collection of key economic data, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is crucial for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [2] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has lost approximately one-third of the October price data due to the shutdown, which could lead to a decline in data quality over time [2][3] - Other economic indicators, such as the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, will also be impacted, although some data sources like retail sales may be less affected [2] Historical Context - This shutdown marks the 15th federal government shutdown since 1981, with previous shutdowns causing delays in important economic reports [4] - Historical examples include the 1995-1996 shutdown, which delayed the employment report by two weeks, and the 2013 shutdown, which also caused significant delays in various economic data releases [5] Alternative Data Sources - In the absence of government data, private sector economic data is becoming increasingly important as a supplement [6] - Private institutions like ADP Research and Indeed provide alternative employment and job vacancy data, while financial institutions like Carlyle Group and Bank of America offer labor market updates [6][7] - Although these private indicators cannot fully replace the authority of official reports, they can help fill the data void and provide decision-making references for market participants [7] Federal Reserve's Decision-Making Challenges - The Federal Reserve is facing challenges in making interest rate decisions due to a slowdown in the labor market and inflationary pressures from tariffs [8] - The upcoming CPI report is critical for policy decisions, but the risk of further delays due to the shutdown complicates the situation [8] - The Fed is also considering alternative indicators from the private sector and local governments to inform their decisions, but the overall decrease in data availability is expected to increase the difficulty of their work [8]

Core Points - The impending U.S. government shutdown may hinder policymakers, business leaders, and investors from accessing critical economic data needed to assess the U.S. economy [1] - If Congress fails to reach an agreement by the end of the fiscal year, many federal agencies will cease operations, and the Labor Statistics Bureau will stop releasing key economic data [1][2] - The delay in the release of employment, inflation, and consumer data could disrupt key policy decisions, such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [1][4] Economic Data Impact - Key economic indicators scheduled for release, such as the monthly jobs report and consumer price index (CPI), are at risk of being delayed due to the shutdown [2][3] - The Labor Department has indicated that all operations and data collection will pause during the budget funding interruption, affecting the timely release of economic data [2] - Historical context shows that during previous shutdowns, the Labor Statistics Bureau was forced to delay the release of important reports, impacting economic assessments [3] Federal Reserve Considerations - The Federal Reserve's next meeting is scheduled for October 28-29, and the lack of updated government data will complicate the justification for further interest rate cuts [4] - Some Federal Reserve officials are cautious about rate cuts and prefer to wait for more data before making decisions [4] - The uncertainty caused by the government shutdown is expected to increase economic costs and hinder growth, according to business leaders [4]

Key Points - The financial market is set to experience a series of critical data releases and events this week, with a focus on the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision and the U.S. July Consumer Price Index (CPI) [1] - The Australian Reserve Bank unexpectedly maintained the official cash rate (OCR) at 3.85% in July, but market expectations lean towards a potential cut to 3.60% due to easing inflation and a declining employment report [3] - The U.S. July CPI data is anticipated to provide insights into inflation trends, especially after the unexpected underperformance of the non-farm payroll data, which has heightened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [5] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release their monthly energy outlook reports, which will offer guidance on oil demand, supply, and price forecasts [8] - The U.K. is expected to release GDP data for Q2 and June, with previous data indicating economic contraction, increasing pressure on the Bank of England to consider further rate cuts [9] - The Eurozone will also publish a revised GDP figure for Q2, with expectations of a modest growth rate of 0.1% [11] - Japan's GDP data for Q2 will be released, following a 0.7% year-on-year decline in Q1, raising concerns about the economic outlook and potential implications for the Bank of Japan's interest rate policy [12]