会议助理 1: 本会议信息仅供参考，不代表任何投资建议。 王子杰 中泰证券机械分析师: 好的呀，各位投资者，大家好，我是中泰机械王子杰。那这里的话，我跟各位投资者汇报 一下这个锂电设备的观点。那我们会议的主题总结为周期拐点，固态元年。其实也可以说 是对 26 年对整个锂电设备板块的投资策略的一个缩影。那分成两个维度进行汇报。首先 是整个行业的复盘以及展望，然后再是这个固态电池的兴起对整个板块带来的影响。首先 是行业层面，为什么说是板块周期拐点？那从这个订单和业绩两个维度来看，在经历了这 个 23、24 年两年的沉沦之后。 其实我们从 25 年开始，逐步看到整个锂电设备板块，公司在这个订单以及体现的业绩的 层面的话，有一个逐步修复的一个过程。那从 20 到今年年的话，其实也算是经历了一个 相对来说比较完整的锂电设备周期。那复盘下来，其实每个阶段都有他们的特点。那我们 对在 20 年到 22 年的，对中，这个锂电设备的观点是全面开花。那 22 年的话，是贝塔上 行，阿尔法分化。那在扩产的早期，驱动股价上涨的因素更多的是订单，只要有这个新的 定点和订单，其实股价都有非常正向的反馈。 那在早周期的早期，其实更多整个板 ...

人物小传 2008年北京奥运会期间，北京组织了一次电动汽车示范运行。"纯电动汽车实现零排放，相比油电混合 动力汽车，表现更为突出。"欧阳明高说，"这就证明，纯电驱动这条路是能走通的！" 欧阳明高，1958年生于湖北天门，长期从事节能与新能源动力系统研究，2017年当选为中国科学院院 士，现任清华大学车辆与运载学院教授。授权发明专利100余项，两次获得国家技术发明奖二等奖，还 获得过何梁何利科学技术奖等多项荣誉。 68岁的欧阳明高，每天的日程排得满满当当：上课、出差、开会、讲座、接待前来咨询的客人。来访者 中，既有新能源汽车领域的创投人，也有不少寻求技术突破的研究者。 中国新能源汽车正日益成为中国制造的一张亮丽名片。但在本世纪初，欧阳明高刚进入这一领域时，主 流产品电池续航还不足100公里，整车研发团队寥寥，鲜少有人愿意在这个前途未卜的领域投资。那时 候，欧阳明高就认准方向，带领团队专注动力电池与电控技术研发，为新能源汽车行业的发展做出了有 益探索。 坚持看好另一条路 "纯电驱动这条路是能走通的" 汽车行业发展，离不开能源动力。改革开放之初，欧阳明高在中南大学能源动力工程专业就读，后来在 丹麦技术大学能源工程系 ...

近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -1.47 -0.55 31.63 绝对收益 0.01 0.35 54.32 数据来源：聚源 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 注：2026 年 1 月 23 日数据 证券研究报告·行业点评报告 2026 年 1 月 26 日 江海证券研究发展部 执业证书编号：S1410525090001 1. 江海证券-行业点评报告-电池行业：上 汽推出 10 万级半固态电池车型，固态电池 核心设备实现交付 – 2025.07.22 2. 江海证券-行业点评报告-电池行业： QuantumScape 固态电池获里程碑式进 展，关注氧化物电解质方向投资机会 – 2025.06.27 3. 江海证券-行业点评报告-电池行业：固 态电池设备端近期催化不断，建议关注产 业链投资机会 – 2025.06.19 4. 江海证券-行业点评报告-电池行业：阿 里资本开支大超预期，数据中心投资机会 电新汽车行业研究组 分析师：王金帅 受益传统电池扩产和固态电池技术迭 代，锂电设备公司业绩有望复苏 事件： 行业评级：增持（维持） 1 月 25 日，先导智能发布 2025 年度业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the confusion surrounding solid-state batteries, highlighting that while some companies claim to have implemented them, the technology is still not ready for mass production and faces significant challenges before it can replace liquid batteries. Group 1: Current State of Solid-State Batteries - BYD initially projected that solid-state batteries would not be in small-scale production until 2027, with widespread application not expected until 2030 [1] - Companies like Zhiji have announced solid-state battery implementations, but these are often misrepresented as "half-solid" batteries, which differ significantly from true solid-state technology [1][3] - The introduction of a national standard for solid-state batteries aims to clarify definitions and prevent misleading claims in the industry [6][10] Group 2: Technical Definitions and Standards - The national standard defines solid-state batteries as those with solid electrolytes, while those with both solid and liquid components are classified as hybrid or half-solid batteries [7] - A critical measure in the new standard is the weight loss rate during testing, which must not exceed 0.5% for a battery to be classified as solid-state [12] - Current half-solid batteries typically contain 5%-20% liquid, making it challenging for them to meet the new standard [12] Group 3: Challenges and Market Readiness - Solid-state batteries face significant hurdles, including high production costs (over ten times that of liquid batteries) and issues with yield and consistency [15] - Despite theoretical advantages in safety and energy density, practical implementations of solid-state batteries have not yet proven competitive in the market [15][16] - The article suggests that half-solid batteries may represent a more viable short-term solution, as they have shown rapid technological advancements and market readiness [18] Group 4: Market Perception and Future Outlook - There is skepticism about the market's willingness to adopt half-solid batteries, as many companies have failed to deliver on their promises, leading to consumer doubt [23][24] - The article notes that while solid-state batteries are often touted for their potential, the current advancements in liquid battery technology may overshadow them [26] - Experts express differing opinions on the future of solid-state batteries, with some believing they may find applications in military contexts rather than consumer vehicles [27]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the establishment of a national standard for solid-state batteries in China, which aims to clarify the definitions and classifications of solid-state and semi-solid batteries, thereby providing a unified framework for the industry [3][4][9]. Group 1: National Standard Development - On December 31, 2025, China's first national standard for solid-state batteries for electric vehicles entered the public consultation phase, marking a significant step in the standardization of this technology [3]. - The standard will provide a unified definition, classification methods, and quantitative indicators to determine whether a battery qualifies as a solid-state battery [4][8]. - The drafting committee includes over 30 organizations from the entire supply chain, including major battery manufacturers and automotive companies, indicating a broad consensus among key industry players [5][6]. Group 2: Classification and Testing Criteria - The standard introduces a three-part classification system for batteries: liquid, mixed solid-liquid, and solid-state, eliminating the independent categories of "semi-solid" and "fully solid" batteries [10][12]. - A weight loss rate test with a threshold of 0.5% is established to determine if a battery can be classified as solid-state, with specific testing procedures outlined [14][15]. - The classification will also consider the type of solid electrolyte, ion conduction type, and application scenarios, allowing for differentiated product development in various fields [13][17]. Group 3: Industry Implications - The introduction of this standard is expected to accelerate the industrialization of solid-state batteries, with major automotive companies planning to validate and produce these batteries by 2026 and 2027 [19]. - The solid-state battery concept index has seen a nearly 60% increase this year, reflecting strong market interest and investment in this technology [20]. - The standard aims to provide a common language for academic research and technology development, set baseline expectations for product marketing, and establish conditions for future performance and safety standards [22][24].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese energy storage industry is at a critical juncture of transformation and upgrading, with explosive growth in overseas orders and advancements in solid-state battery technology, raising questions about the sustainability of China's leading position in the lithium battery industry and future growth drivers [1]. Group 1: Energy Transition and Storage Technology - The development of green low-carbon energy has become a hallmark of social progress, with clean energy sources like wind and solar facing challenges due to their instability, making energy storage technology increasingly important as a stabilizer for grid integration [2]. - From 2021 to the end of 2025, lithium-based energy storage systems are expected to achieve significant advancements, with energy density increasing by 8 times, leading to substantial improvements in storage capacity, rapid cost reductions, and decreased land usage [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Policy Changes - The domestic energy storage industry has faced "involution," where technological advancements have led to price reductions, resulting in a market focused on price wars rather than value differentiation, particularly before 2024 due to inadequate standards and mechanisms [3]. - The introduction of policy document 136 in 2025 is expected to shift the market from a price-driven model to a value-driven one, with investors increasingly focusing on the core qualities of energy storage stations, such as efficiency, lifespan, and reliability [3]. Group 3: Global Market Opportunities - The overseas demand for energy storage has surged, with China holding approximately 40% of the global installed capacity but accounting for 90% of the global market share in energy storage batteries and systems, indicating significant growth potential in international markets [6]. - The growth in the overseas energy storage market is driven by sustainable development trends, such as the rise of household energy storage systems in Europe due to energy price surges and the increasing energy demands from new industrial loads in Southeast Asia and the Middle East [6]. Group 4: Challenges in International Expansion - Chinese companies must navigate various challenges when expanding into overseas markets, including cultural differences and stringent local compliance requirements, which encompass labor laws, tax regulations, and supply chain compliance [7]. - Establishing a complete value chain from product development to local operations and power trading is essential for maximizing profitability beyond mere equipment exports [7]. Group 5: Technological Advancements - The evolution of energy storage technology is characterized by gradual improvements rather than sudden breakthroughs, with a focus on long-term accumulation leading to significant advancements [8]. - The introduction of artificial intelligence in the lifecycle management of energy storage systems has enhanced operational efficiency, from planning and design to manufacturing and maintenance [8]. Group 6: Future of Solid-State Batteries - The transition to solid-state batteries is underway, with semi-solid batteries already being applied in real-world scenarios, enhancing the safety of energy storage stations [8]. - China's lithium battery industry is expected to maintain its competitive edge in the solid-state battery era due to substantial investments in research and development and a rich array of application scenarios [8].

Core Viewpoint - The future growth of the battery industry will be driven by new scene demands and AI-enabled industrial upgrades, leading to profound changes across various sectors from consumer electronics to industrial backup power and smart manufacturing [2]. Group 1: New Scene Consensus - Three high-growth potential scenarios have emerged that exceed current electric vehicle demands: - AI wearable devices require high energy density and miniaturization, with a focus on AI glasses driving battery evolution from liquid to solid-state [3][4]. - Data center backup power is identified as a previously overlooked "blue ocean," with sodium-ion batteries seen as a leading solution due to their performance and cost advantages [4]. - Humanoid robots demand high power and safety, presenting new challenges for battery design and integration with drive systems [4]. Group 2: Technical Path Consensus - The technical routes are diverse but clearly defined: - Liquid batteries are still evolving, with innovations in high-voltage lithium cobalt oxide and ultra-high nickel materials expected to significantly enhance energy density [5]. - Solid-state batteries are anticipated to penetrate smaller applications first, with a focus on miniaturization [5][6]. - Sodium batteries are being positioned for specific scenarios such as data center backup and cost-sensitive applications [7]. Group 3: AI Empowerment in R&D and Manufacturing - AI is transforming the entire process from laboratory to production line: - AI is embedded in manufacturing equipment to enhance overall efficiency and predictive maintenance [11]. - AI is being utilized to optimize welding processes through multi-parameter collaborative models [11]. - AI simplifies visual inspection and knowledge management, although challenges remain in generating reliable training data [11]. Group 4: Call to Action Under Consensus - A clear evolution map for the industry has been drawn, with AI driving efficiency across the entire chain and new application scenarios continuously emerging [12][13].

Core Insights - The expansion of lithium battery production scale is significantly reducing unit costs through advanced equipment [1] - The focus on efficient operation, zero carbon goals, and computational power is central to EK's industrial air conditioning services for the new energy sector [5] - Domestic laser technology has evolved from imitation to surpassing previous standards, marking a significant milestone in the industry [9][10] - Solid-state batteries require stricter production environment conditions compared to liquid batteries, leading to innovations in dehumidification systems to support large-scale production [11] - Graphene materials exhibit over 93% thermal-to-electric conversion efficiency, enhancing heating and drying processes in battery manufacturing [14] - The lithium battery manufacturing sector is entering a "vision-driven" era, emphasizing micron-level defect detection and efficiency improvements [15] Industry Challenges and Innovations - The industry is facing new supply chain challenges in the context of a new industrial cycle [17] - The application of new materials and battery iterations is crucial for future advancements [17] - Intelligent manufacturing in battery production is evolving, focusing on extreme efficiency and cost reduction [17]

Core Viewpoint - The commercialization timeline for solid-state batteries is uncertain, with experts predicting a range from 2027 to 2035 for various stages of market entry, while half-solid batteries are currently the focus of commercialization efforts [1][2][3] Group 1: Solid-State Battery Commercialization - Solid-state batteries are expected to face significant technical and cost challenges before achieving mass production, with industry consensus suggesting a timeline of 2032 to 2033 for commercial application [2][3] - Current predictions for solid-state battery commercialization vary, with some experts suggesting small-scale production could begin as early as 2027, while others believe large-scale commercialization may not occur until 2030 or later [2][3] Group 2: Half-Solid and Liquid Batteries - Half-solid batteries, referred to as "solid-liquid batteries," are seen as a transitional solution before solid-state batteries become mainstream, with a projected large-scale deployment window between 2025 and 2030 [3] - Liquid batteries are expected to maintain a significant market share, with projections indicating they will account for over 70% of the global power battery market at least until 2030, highlighting their ongoing relevance and potential for improvement [3][4] Group 3: Industry Dynamics and Consumer Perception - The industry warns against the over-hyping of solid-state batteries, which may lead to unhealthy market expectations and consumer misconceptions about the obsolescence of liquid batteries [1][3] - A multi-technology approach is deemed essential for the future of power batteries, with liquid, half-solid, and solid-state batteries expected to coexist and cater to different market segments [4]

Group 1 - The solid-state battery sector has seen significant stock price increases for companies like XianDao Intelligent and Yiwei Lithium Energy since August, indicating a revaluation of the sector [1] - The 2025 World Power Battery Conference held in Yibin highlighted the challenges of commercializing solid-state batteries, with major players like CATL focusing more on liquid batteries [1][2] - The resurgence of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries is attributed to their low cost and mature technology, which aligns with the industry's need for immediate profitability before long-term investments [1] Group 2 - CATL's chairman, Zeng Yuqun, criticized the recent surge in lithium prices, describing it as "speculation" and "explosive growth," indicating a tense atmosphere at the conference [2] - Zeng's speech emphasized the importance of technological breakthroughs in battery performance and quality, with a notable focus on LFP technology, which has been in development for about 20 years [3] - The current industry sentiment reflects a shift from solid-state battery optimism to a renewed focus on the established liquid battery technologies, particularly LFP [4][8] Group 3 - Industry experts predict that solid-state batteries may not achieve large-scale commercialization until 2030 or later, with significant technical challenges still to be addressed [6][7] - The transition to hybrid solid-liquid batteries is expected to accelerate, with a projected five-year window for commercialization [8] - Despite the challenges facing solid-state batteries, LFP technology remains dominant due to its high safety, low cost, and long cycle life, making it a preferred choice for many applications [10][11] Group 4 - The market for energy storage is projected to grow significantly, with LFP batteries currently accounting for over 80% of the "power + storage" application market [13] - By 2024, the cumulative installed capacity of new energy storage in China is expected to reach 78.3 GWh, representing 47% of the global total [13][14] - The demand for LFP batteries is anticipated to increase, with a forecasted output of 246 million tons by 2024, driven by the growing energy storage market [13]