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以旧换新与国补资金使用进展:政策托底下的社零观察
Ge Long Hui· 2025-09-24 00:27
本文来自格隆汇专栏:中信证券研究 作者:明明 彭阳 孙毓铭 ▍政策实施情况: 上半年国补资金快速消耗,带动以旧换新政策火热推进,但部分地区出现额度紧张甚至阶段性暂停。进 入下半年后,地方普遍采取定时、限额、摇号等方式控制发放节奏。以上海为例,自9月起家电家居补 贴改为公证摇号,每两周一次,以平衡资金使用并扩大覆盖面。 ▍结构性成效与消费拉动: 2025年的以旧换新政策补贴范围和标准进一步扩围:家电类由8大类扩至12大类,新增手机、平板、智 能手表等数码产品,汽车报废更新范围扩大,家装、电动车等同样获支持。这些举措显著提振了耐用品 消费,推动消费结构向智能化、绿色化升级。1-5月社零增速保持在5.0%,明显高于去年同期,显示政 策刺激传导迅速而有效。 ▍边际效应与后续展望: 6月以来,受资金消耗过快与去年高基数影响,社零增速有所放缓。社零增速1-5月高达5.0%,6-8月当 月增速分别下滑至4.8%、3.7%和3.4%。补贴边际效应有所减弱,但整体仍可控,随着最后一批资金落 地叠加年末消费旺季,预计下半年社零仍有条件维持温和增长。需要关注的是居民可能形成"等补再 买"的心理和部分超前消费倾向,但在政策节奏管理和 ...
今年第三批国补资金7月下达,8月面板价格将止跌企稳
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-07-28 09:17
Group 1 - The price of liquid crystal television panels has stopped declining for the first time in two months, influenced by the release of new national subsidy funds, panel manufacturers controlling production based on demand, increased industry concentration, and a recovery in panel procurement [1][4] - The Ministry of Finance has allocated 69 billion yuan for the third batch of special national bonds to support the consumption of old goods in exchange for new ones [4] - After a rapid destocking by television brands in the second quarter, the demand for television panels is showing signs of weak recovery in the third quarter, with manufacturers adopting a production strategy based on demand [4] Group 2 - The concentration of the liquid crystal television panel industry is increasing, providing more possibilities for manufacturers to produce based on demand and stabilize prices [5] - Following TCL Huaxing's acquisition of LGD's Guangzhou 8.5-generation panel production line, BOE announced plans to acquire a 30% stake in Rainbow Optoelectronics, which may become an important part of BOE's television panel capacity layout [5] - Sigmaintell predicts that the market share of major liquid crystal panel manufacturers, including BOE, TCL Huaxing, and Huike, will expand to over 70% in the global liquid crystal television panel market [5]
国补继续!财政部已下达第三批超长期特别国债资金690亿元
第一财经· 2025-07-25 10:53
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the continuation of the national subsidy program for consumer goods replacement, highlighting the allocation of funds and the positive impact on consumer spending and business performance. Group 1: National Subsidy Program - The Ministry of Finance has arranged 300 billion yuan in special long-term bonds to support the consumer goods replacement program, with 162 billion yuan already allocated in two batches earlier this year [1][2] - A third batch of 69 billion yuan will be distributed in October to support local implementation of the consumer goods replacement initiative [3] Group 2: Impact on Consumer Spending - In the first half of the year, the consumer goods replacement program generated sales of 1.6 trillion yuan across various sectors, including automobiles, home appliances, and mobile phones, contributing to a 5% year-on-year increase in total retail sales of consumer goods [2] - Retail sales of major appliances and audio-visual equipment, cultural office supplies, communication equipment, and furniture saw year-on-year growth rates of 30.7%, 25.4%, 24.1%, and 22.9% respectively [2] Group 3: Future Plans and Regulatory Measures - The Ministry of Finance plans to accelerate the introduction of policies to boost consumer spending and enhance the consumption environment, particularly in major cities with significant population bases and development potential [2][4] - Measures will be taken to strengthen fund supervision and ensure the safety of subsidy funds, including regular monitoring and increased checks to prevent misuse [4]
国补继续!财政部已下达第三批超长期特别国债资金690亿元
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-07-25 10:14
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is actively promoting the "old-for-new" consumption policy, with significant funding allocated to stimulate consumer spending and support various industries, particularly in the automotive and home appliance sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Funding and Policy Implementation - The Ministry of Finance, in collaboration with the National Development and Reform Commission, has allocated a total of 3,000 billion yuan in special long-term bonds to support the "old-for-new" consumption policy [1]. - A third batch of 690 billion yuan in special long-term bonds has been distributed, with additional funds expected to be released in October [1][3]. - The government emphasizes a structured approach to fund allocation, ensuring that the "old-for-new" policy is implemented consistently throughout the year [1]. Group 2: Impact on Consumer Spending - The "old-for-new" initiative has resulted in a sales increase of 1.6 trillion yuan across various consumer goods, including automobiles, home appliances, and mobile phones [2]. - Retail sales in specific categories, such as home appliances and audio-visual equipment, have seen year-on-year growth rates of 30.7%, 25.4%, 24.1%, and 22.9% respectively, contributing to a 5% increase in total social retail sales [2]. - The Ministry of Finance plans to introduce additional policies to further stimulate consumer spending and enhance the consumption environment [2]. Group 3: Regulatory Measures - The government is implementing measures to enhance the effectiveness of the funding policy and strengthen oversight to ensure the proper use of funds [4]. - A regular monitoring mechanism has been established to track the implementation of the policy and ensure accountability in fund management [4]. - Increased scrutiny is being applied to prevent misuse of funds, including fraud and misallocation [4].
家电行业周报:5月家电社零同比加速,第三、四批国补资金分别7、10月发放-20250622
HUAXI Securities· 2025-06-22 14:09
证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 22 日 [Table_Title] 周专题:5 月家电社零同比加速,第三、四批国补资金分别 7、10 月发放 [Table_Title2] 家电行业周报 [Table_Summary] ► 周专题: 5 月限额以上家电零售额同比高增,增速领先。根据 wind, 2025 年 1-5 月限额以上单位的家用电器和音像器材类累计商 品零售额同比+30.2%,累计零售额为 4641 亿元,其中单 5月 实现同比+53%(4 月为+39%),单 5 月零售额为 1166 亿元。 根据国家统计局,5 月家电和音响器材类零售额同比增速大 幅领先文化办公用品类(+31%)、家居类(+25.6%)、通讯 器材类(+33%)。 关税政策波动、下游需求不及预期、行业竞争加剧、上游原材 料成本波动等风险等。 评级及分析师信息 [Table_IndustryRank] 行业评级:推荐 [Table_Pic] 行业走势图 -11% -5% 2% 8% 15% 21% 2024/06 2024/09 2024/12 2025/03 2025/06 家用电器 沪 ...
1380亿元!“国补”继续
中国基金报· 2025-06-20 06:38
Core Viewpoint - The "old-for-new" subsidy policy will continue, with central government funds being distributed in batches to support the initiative, aiming to boost consumer spending and facilitate industrial transformation [2][3]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - The central government will allocate a total of 3 trillion yuan in special bonds to support the "old-for-new" consumption policy, with 1.62 trillion yuan already distributed in the first two quarters of the year [2]. - An additional 1.38 trillion yuan will be distributed in the third and fourth quarters, ensuring that the subsidy funds are utilized effectively [2][3]. - The overall usage of the subsidy funds is approximately 50% of the annual target, indicating that the implementation is on track [2]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The "old-for-new" policy has already driven sales exceeding the total sales of the previous year, demonstrating its effectiveness in stimulating consumer spending [3]. - The policy is expected to promote industrial transformation and upgrading, contributing to a more robust economic environment [3]. - Local governments are encouraged to optimize the distribution of subsidy funds and ensure compliance with regulations to prevent fraud [3].
2025国补余额还有1380亿!
第一财经· 2025-06-19 15:51
2025.06. 19 本文字数:1494,阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财 经 陈益刊 在刚刚发布的5月份经济数据中,消费超预期走高是最大亮点。 国家统计局数据显示,5月份,社会消费品零售总额41326亿元,同比增长6.4%,这比4月份加快1.3 个百分点,为2024年以来月度最高水平。 关于5月份消费走高,官方归纳为"五一""端午"假期、"6·18"平台促销提前、消费品以旧换新政策等因 素。 今年中国继续实施消费品以旧换新政策(下称"国补"),但国补品类扩围,手机等数码产品被纳入, 国补资金额度也比去年翻倍增至3000亿元,且简化补贴流程,消费者更快拿到国补资金。 自去年下半年国补推出后,家电、数码、汽车等产品销量明显大涨,今年也延续这一趋势,尤其是节 假日消费明显提升。 "我们门店'五一'假期仅第一天的销售额就接近1000万元,国补拉动销售作用非常明显。"山东济南一 家大型家电门店店长告诉第一财经。 今年一些电商平台"6·18"网购促销活动比去年提前一周,在5月13日就启动,商家降价优惠叠加国补 优惠引燃消费者购物热情,5月份消费品以旧换新明显提速。 商务部数据显示,截至5月31日,2025年消费品 ...
多地暂停以旧换新!或等待新一批资金额度
第一财经· 2025-06-19 03:48
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the suspension of various consumer goods replacement subsidy programs in several regions of China due to rapid depletion of allocated funds, highlighting the impact on consumer spending and local fiscal challenges [1][2][3]. Group 1: Suspension of Subsidy Programs - The Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region announced the suspension of multiple consumer goods replacement subsidy activities effective June 20, 2025, including automobile trade-ins and home appliance upgrades [1]. - Other regions, such as Xinjiang, Chongqing, Hubei, and Jiangsu, have also suspended similar subsidy programs, indicating a broader trend across the country [2]. Group 2: Funding Issues - The rapid consumption of subsidy funds has led to the suspension of these programs, with local officials citing the quick depletion of allocated budgets as a primary reason [3]. - The central government allocated a total of 300 billion yuan for local matching funds, with 1.62 trillion yuan already distributed in two batches, leaving 1.38 trillion yuan to be allocated in the third and fourth quarters [3][4]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The early launch of subsidy programs and increased consumer enthusiasm during holiday promotions have resulted in a significant uptick in sales for related goods, with retail sales in certain categories showing substantial year-on-year growth [5]. - In May, retail sales of home appliances and communication devices increased by 53% and 33% respectively, contributing to a 1.9 percentage point increase in total social retail sales [5].
时报观察丨提高“国补”资金时空匹配精准度
证券时报· 2025-06-14 00:14
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant impact of the "old for new" consumption policy on boosting sales during the e-commerce promotion period, with sales reaching 1.1 trillion yuan in the first five months, nearing last year's total of 1.3 trillion yuan [1] - The implementation of the "old for new" policy is supported by 300 billion yuan of long-term special government bonds, with 1,620 billion yuan allocated in two batches earlier this year, demonstrating the effectiveness of early policy deployment [1] - As of the end of May, the usage progress of the "national subsidy" funds for the "old for new" program is estimated to be between 1,439 billion and 1,632 billion yuan, close to the allocated fund scale [1] Group 2 - There is a regional disparity in the usage progress and effectiveness of the subsidy funds, with some areas pausing the "national subsidy" due to nearing the funding cap, while others adopt a daily "limited release" model to control fund consumption [2] - The distribution of funds is expected to favor regions that perform well in 2024, indicating that optimizing fund allocation based on policy implementation effectiveness will be crucial for enhancing subsidy efficiency [2] - Multiple important promotional events are still upcoming in the second half of the year, and the central government’s phased fund allocation will ensure a steady flow of "national subsidy" funds throughout the year [2]
时报观察 提高“国补”资金时空匹配精准度
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-06-13 18:14
Core Viewpoint - The suspension of the old-for-new subsidy for consumer goods during the "6.18" shopping festival has raised widespread attention, highlighting the importance of this policy in boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Impact - The old-for-new policy has shown significant effects, with sales in five major categories reaching 1.1 trillion yuan in the first five months, nearing the total sales of 1.3 trillion yuan for the entire previous year [1]. - The implementation of 300 billion yuan in long-term special treasury bonds has provided crucial support for the old-for-new policy, with 162 billion yuan allocated in two batches in January and April [1]. Group 2: Regional Variations - There are notable differences in the usage progress and effectiveness of the subsidy across regions, with some areas suspending the "national subsidy" due to nearing the funding cap, while others adopt a daily "limited issuance" model [2]. - Some regions maintain a "universal subsidy" model and expand coverage to enhance policy attractiveness and stimulate consumption [2]. Group 3: Future Considerations - The distribution of funds is expected to favor regions that perform well in 2024, and optimizing fund allocation based on policy effectiveness will be crucial for improving subsidy implementation [2]. - Upcoming promotional events in the second half of the year will require precise management of fund usage to maximize the impact of fiscal resources on consumer spending [2].