高盛发布研报称，舜宇光学科技(02382)管理层在中期业绩会上表示对公司盈利能力改善持正面看法， 预期将受到智能手机镜头规格升级的趋势所推动。高盛目前预测，受产品升级至潜望式摄像头、超薄解 决方案、AI影像等支持，公司毛利率今年及明年将回升至19.7%及20.2%，对比过去两年为14.5%及 18.3%，但仍未能达到2020至2021年的22%至23%水平。高盛维持对舜宇的"中性"评级，因应中期业 绩，将2025至2027年盈利预测上调10%、2%及2%，大致维持收入预测不变，毛利率预测上调0.5、0.2及 0.1个百分点，目标价从89港元上调至91.1港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global camera module market is expected to grow from $36 billion in 2023 to $46 billion by 2029, driven by innovations in optics, the acceleration of automotive intelligence, and the increasing popularity of new consumer imaging devices [1] Group 1: Mobile Phones - The focus of competition in mobile phone configurations is shifting towards optical technology upgrades, with innovations such as periscope cameras and OIS optical stabilization penetrating mid-range models [2] - New technologies like variable apertures and hybrid lenses are expected to accelerate penetration into high-end models, driven by industry leaders [2] - Continuous attempts by mobile manufacturers to innovate in optical technology are likely to sustain steady growth in the mobile optical market [2] Group 2: Smart Imaging Devices - Optical systems are a crucial component of smart imaging devices, with professional drones typically equipped with around six cameras, and optical lenses accounting for nearly 60% of the BOM cost of handheld smart imaging devices [3] - Companies like DJI, Insta360, and GoPro are continuously innovating their products, and the demand for short video creation is driving the growth of drones and handheld smart imaging devices [3] - The increase in shipments of drones and handheld smart imaging devices is expected to accelerate the expansion of the related optical module market [3] Group 3: Automotive - The "intelligent driving equality" era is expected to begin in 2025, with companies like BYD leading the way, marking a turning point for high-level intelligent vehicles [4] - The number of cameras used in high-level intelligent vehicles is projected to increase from 3-8 to 8-12, with pixel requirements rising from 2M to 8M [4] - The growth in sales of high-level intelligent vehicles is anticipated to drive significant revenue growth for companies in the optical industry chain [4] Group 4: XR Devices and Robotics - Optical modules are essential for creating immersive experiences in XR devices, with major manufacturers pushing for technological upgrades and market maturity [5] - The global demand for VR/AR cameras is expected to rise from 60 million units in 2024 to 227 million units by 2029 [5] - Robotics companies like Tesla and UTree Technology are advancing humanoid robot technology, which is expected to open up consumer applications and growth potential in the optical industry chain [5]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the optical industry [5] Core Insights - The optical upgrade trend is clear, opening multiple growth opportunities across various sectors [12] - The smartphone market is experiencing a recovery, with camera hardware upgrades becoming a key innovation direction [12] - The automotive sector is entering an era of equal access to intelligent driving, with a significant increase in demand for cameras and Lidar [2] - AI smart glasses are becoming a focal point for AI interaction, with a projected significant increase in sales [3] - The robotics sector is expanding with the integration of multiple visual sensors, indicating new opportunities in the optical field [4] Summary by Sections Smartphones - The global smartphone shipment is expected to reach 1.22 billion units in 2024, a 7% year-on-year increase, marking a rebound after two years of decline [12][18] - The demand for periscope lenses in smartphones is projected to grow from 46 million units in 2024 to 80 million units by 2026 [12] - The high-end smartphone camera module market is showing strong growth, with a 16% increase in shipments for mid-to-high-end modules [12][13] Automotive - China's new energy vehicle sales are projected to reach approximately 13.8 million units in 2024, a 46% year-on-year increase [2][14] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 55% by 2025, surpassing traditional fuel vehicles for the first time [2] - The demand for automotive cameras is increasing, with an average of 7 cameras per vehicle expected by 2025 [15] Smart Glasses - Global sales of AI smart glasses are projected to reach 5.5 million units in 2025, a 135% increase from 2024 [3][16] - The integration of cameras in AI smart glasses is crucial for providing intelligent interaction experiences [3] Robotics - The Chinese machine vision market is expected to grow to 39.5 billion yuan by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 17.5% from 2024 to 2028 [4][17] - The integration of multiple visual sensors in robotics is becoming increasingly important, with various companies adopting advanced visual systems [4][17]