港股通 证券研究报告 瑞声科技 (2018 HK) 声学毛利率承压，光学毛利率改善 | | | 2025 年 8 月 25 日│中国香港 电子元件 瑞声科技公布 1H25 财报：实现收入 133 亿元（yoy：+18%），毛利率 20.7% （yoy：-0.8pp，主要受益于消费电子声学、PSS 汽车声学以及 MEMS 麦克 风业务毛利率下滑影响），归母净利 8.8 亿元（yoy：+63%）。考虑到 MEMS 麦克风业务的毛利率改善低于我们预期，我们将 2025/2026/2027 年归母净 利预测下调 1%/5%/4%至 22.8/26.5/29.2 亿元（前值：23.2/28.0/30.5 亿元）。 同时，考虑公司在汽车、XR 眼镜以及机器人等高景气新型智能终端的定点 陆续落地，我们给予公司 2026 年目标 PE 25.0x，目标价 60.30 港币，维持 "买入"评级。 1H25：声学毛利率短期承压，光学毛利率持续改善 公司 1H25 实现营收 133 元（yoy：+18%），其中：1）声学：实现收入 35.2 亿元（yoy:+2%），毛利率 27.2%（yoy：-2.7pp，主要受产品结构变化的 影 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that AAC Technologies' management provided a positive outlook for gross margins in the second half of the year, driven by increased production of new high-end products and ongoing improvements in the optical business [1] Revenue Outlook - The revenue outlook for the second half of the year exceeds market expectations, benefiting from significant growth in new businesses, including thermal management and automotive acoustics, as well as upgrades to existing product specifications [1] Long-term Opportunities - The company maintains a solid outlook and holds a positive view on long-term opportunities in artificial intelligence, robotics, and automotive sectors, leading to an increase in the target price from HKD 60 to HKD 65 while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

Group 1 - In Q2 2025, actively managed equity public funds continued to increase their holdings in Hong Kong stocks, with the proportion of Hong Kong stocks in their portfolios rising to 20% [1] - The concentration of holdings among actively managed public funds decreased, indicating a shift towards mid and small-cap stocks in Hong Kong [1] - The investment strategy involved increasing allocations to both growth assets like pharmaceuticals and consumer sectors, as well as dividend-paying assets such as non-bank financials and banks [1] Group 2 - Passive index funds also saw continued inflows into Hong Kong stocks, with approximately 280 billion yuan flowing in during Q2 2025, although at a slower rate compared to Q1 [2] - The total inflow through the Hong Kong Stock Connect for public funds in the first half of 2025 reached nearly 200 billion yuan, with a projected total for the year between 300 billion and 450 billion yuan [2] - The potential for further inflows remains significant, with an estimated theoretical allocation space of about 300 billion yuan for actively managed public funds [2] Group 3 - The momentum for southbound capital inflows is recovering, suggesting that Hong Kong stocks may outperform A-shares in the second half of the year [3] - The technology sector in Hong Kong is expected to become a key focus, driven by advancements in AI and easing of trade restrictions between China and the US [3] - Other sectors such as high-dividend stocks, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals are also highlighted as areas of interest for investment in the latter half of the year [3]

Performance Forecast - The company expects a loss of 10.8 million to 13.2 million yuan for the period from January 1, 2025, to June 30, 2025, compared to a loss of 10.2467 million yuan in the same period last year [1][2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to decline by 5.40% to 28.82% compared to the previous year, where the loss was between 6 million to 8.2 million yuan [1][2] - The basic earnings per share are estimated to be a loss of 0.0455 to 0.0556 yuan per share, compared to a loss of 0.0434 yuan per share in the previous year [2] Communication with Auditors - The performance forecast has not been reviewed by registered accountants, but the company has communicated with the auditing firm regarding the forecast, and there are no significant disagreements [2] Reasons for Performance Changes - The company is advancing its two main business areas: "New Energy + Automotive" and "Semiconductor Storage + Smart Terminals" [2] - In the automotive parts sector, the company is responding to the national "Belt and Road" initiative by collaborating with high-quality global clients to drive business growth [2] - In the semiconductor storage sector, the global market is in an upward cycle, and the company is seizing market opportunities to expand its client base and enhance market share [2] - The Chenzhou lithium battery project is in the construction investment phase, with management expenses and operating costs accounted for in the current period's profit and loss [2]

Core Insights - The article discusses the performance of China's top 10 internet companies in the first half of 2025, focusing on market capitalization and stock price changes compared to the end of the previous year [1][3]. Market Capitalization Rankings - Tencent remains the leader with a market cap of $588.5 billion, followed by Alibaba at $270.5 billion and Xiaomi at $198.7 billion [3]. - Xiaomi has moved up from 5th to 3rd place, while Tencent Music has entered the top 10, displacing Baidu [3]. Stock Price Performance - Xiaomi and Tencent Music saw significant stock price increases of 74%, while NetEase and Kuaishou had increases of 55% and 53%, respectively [4][10]. - Meituan, Ctrip, and JD.com experienced notable declines in stock prices, with decreases of 17%, 15%, and 6% [10]. Industry Dynamics - The current landscape of China's internet sector can be summarized as "ATM," with Alibaba, Tencent, and Xiaomi as the key players [5]. - The first tier of companies is characterized by significant market caps, while the second tier includes Pinduoduo, Meituan, and NetEase, all around $10 billion [6]. - The third tier consists of JD.com, Ctrip, Kuaishou, and Tencent Music, with market caps between $30 billion and $50 billion [7]. Growth Drivers - The growth of companies like Xiaomi is attributed to their ventures into the automotive sector, with the launch of their electric vehicles [11][14]. - AI has become a critical area of competition, with companies like Alibaba, Kuaishou, and Tencent making significant strides in this field [17][18]. - The entertainment sector, including gaming and music, continues to show growth potential, with Tencent and NetEase leading in gaming revenue [20]. Financial Performance - JD.com leads in revenue with $301.1 billion in the first quarter, followed by Alibaba, Tencent, and Xiaomi [23]. - Tencent remains the profit leader with a net profit of $61.3 billion, while companies like Kuaishou and Ctrip report profits below $10 billion [26]. Conclusion - The rankings and market dynamics of internet giants are subject to change, influenced by their current performance and future strategies [27][28]. - Companies must adapt to the evolving landscape, focusing on innovation and new opportunities in AI, automotive, and entertainment sectors to maintain or improve their market positions [29].

Group 1 - Yageo, the world's second-largest passive electronic component supplier, announced the acquisition of Shibaura Electronics, aiming for a "win-win" situation for both parties [1] - Yageo's chairman, Chen Taiming, stated that discussions regarding potential cooperation will take place in Tokyo on June 16, emphasizing that advanced technology will remain in Japan with stricter controls to prevent leakage [1] - Yageo's revenue last year was approximately $4 billion, and the company plans to expand its market presence, particularly in AI and automotive sectors through this acquisition [1] Group 2 - Yageo, established in 1977, is the largest manufacturer of chip resistors and tantalum capacitors, and the third-largest manufacturer of multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCC) and inductors, with over 40,000 employees and annual revenue exceeding $4 billion [2] - Shibaura Electronics, founded in 1953, has become a major player in the thermistor market, employing over 4,800 people and generating annual revenue exceeding 32 billion yen [2]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced narrow fluctuations in the first half of the week, followed by a brief rise and subsequent decline, with overall performance remaining stable and trading volume maintaining at over 1 trillion [1] - The three major indices saw a continuous recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rising by 1.13%, 1.42%, and 2.32% respectively [1] - The bond market showed a slight decline but remained at a relatively high level, reflecting a decrease in overall market risk appetite [1] ETF Performance - The average increase of all ETFs was 1.47%, with cross-border ETFs performing particularly well, averaging a rise of 2.23% [1] - AI and innovative pharmaceuticals were the main growth drivers, with top-performing ETFs in these sectors showing significant gains, such as the Huabao ChiNext AI ETF rising by 6.57% [2][3] - Conversely, consumer and automotive ETFs experienced notable declines, with the Greater Bay Area ETF dropping by 2.21% [4][5] Fund Flow Trends - The ETF market saw a net outflow of 24.88 billion, with a notable decrease in market activity [6] - Conservative investment preferences led to significant inflows into bond ETFs, with the Short-term Bond ETF attracting 14.69 billion, making it the top inflow [8] - The Shanghai Corporate Bond ETF recorded a weekly trading volume of 363.50 billion, indicating strong interest in bond funds [10] Upcoming ETF Listings - Four new ETFs are set to launch next week, including the Guotai ChiNext New Energy ETF, which tracks a representative index of the new energy industry [11] - The Invesco CSI 300 Enhanced Strategy ETF aims to provide returns exceeding the index through active management, focusing on high-quality core assets [12]

Group 1: Market Overview - Major power chip manufacturers have dropped out of the global top ten rankings in 2024, with Micron and MediaTek replacing Texas Instruments and STMicroelectronics, according to Gartner [1] - The decline in rankings is attributed to weak sales in the automotive and industrial markets, although signals indicate a potential recovery in these sectors in the second half of the year [1] Group 2: Financial Performance of Major Companies - Texas Instruments reported Q1 revenue of $4.07 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11%, with net profit of $1.18 billion. The analog chip business was a key driver, generating $3.21 billion in revenue, up 13% year-on-year [2] - STMicroelectronics experienced a significant decline in Q1 revenue, which fell to $2.517 billion, down 27.3% year-on-year and 24.2% quarter-on-quarter, exceeding the average decline of 15% among Philadelphia Semiconductor Index constituents [2][3] - NXP's Q1 revenue was $2.84 billion, down 9% year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, with the automotive market contributing $1.674 billion, a 7% decline year-on-year [5] - Renesas reported Q1 sales of 308.8 billion yen, a 12.2% year-on-year decrease, with the automotive market revenue at 155.3 billion yen, down 12.8% year-on-year [8] Group 3: Recovery Signals in Automotive and Industrial Markets - Despite the lackluster financial results, companies expressed optimism about the automotive and industrial markets in the second half of the year, with Texas Instruments noting signs of recovery in industrial markets [9] - STMicroelectronics indicated improvements in the automotive sector, with a book-to-bill ratio above 1 and significant order growth [9] - IDC forecasts a 15.9% annual growth in the global semiconductor market for 2025, with automotive and industrial semiconductors expected to hit bottom in the second half of the year [10] Group 4: Inventory and Supply Chain Dynamics - The automotive market is experiencing a dichotomy, with general-purpose chips facing inventory pressures due to oversupply and weak demand for traditional fuel vehicles [12] - The industrial chip market is showing moderate recovery, driven by investments in "new infrastructure" in China and the return of manufacturing to Europe and the U.S. [14] - Current market conditions indicate a lengthening delivery cycle for automotive-grade MCUs and radar chips due to surging demand from electric vehicles and smart driving [13] Group 5: Impact of Tariffs - Tariffs continue to significantly impact the global semiconductor market, with predictions of a 34% contraction by 2026 due to uncertainties stemming from U.S. tariffs [16][17] - Texas Instruments highlighted the importance of the Chinese market, which accounted for 20% of its revenue in Q1, and is working closely with customers to address their needs amid tariff concerns [16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 20.055 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.35%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 445 million yuan, up 15.20% year-on-year. However, the net profit excluding non-recurring items decreased by 2.46% [2][4]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 4.158 billion yuan, a decline of 1.11% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 26.30% to 152 million yuan. The net profit excluding non-recurring items fell by 16.82% [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company expects a stable revenue growth driven by wind energy (42% of revenue, up 23%), rail transportation (12%, up 26%), industrial engineering (10%, up 15%), and automotive (35%, up 4%). The total profit for the year is projected to be 521 million yuan, a 30.51% increase [9]. - The wind energy segment is anticipated to generate approximately 8.37 billion yuan in revenue, with a sales volume of about 21.2 GW, reflecting a 34% increase year-on-year. The average price per MW is expected to be around 386,000 yuan, down 8% [9]. - The automotive segment is projected to turn profitable, with a revenue of 7.1 billion yuan, improving from a loss of 217 million yuan to a profit of 11 million yuan [9]. Segment Analysis - The rail transportation segment is expected to achieve a revenue of 2.36 billion yuan in 2024, with a profit margin of 11.0%, while the industrial engineering segment is projected to generate 1.92 billion yuan, with a profit margin of 10.4% [9]. - In Q1 2025, the revenue from rail transportation and industrial engineering declined significantly due to temporary factory relocations, impacting overall profitability [9]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued growth across all segments in 2025, with wind energy expected to contribute the most to profit elasticity. The automotive segment is expected to solidify its turnaround, while rail transportation and industrial engineering may face short-term challenges due to factory relocations [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Luxshare Precision (002475.SZ) is "Recommended" (maintained) with a current stock price of 31.61 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 268.795 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-over-year growth of 15.91%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.366 billion CNY, reflecting a 22.03% increase year-over-year [3][6]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2 CNY per 10 shares to all shareholders [3]. - The overall gross margin and net margin for 2024 are projected to be 10.41% (down 1.17 percentage points year-over-year) and 5.42% (up 0.14 percentage points year-over-year), respectively [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is expected to generate revenues of 268.795 billion CNY, with a year-over-year growth of 15.91% [5]. - The net profit for 2024 is projected at 13.366 billion CNY, marking a 22.03% increase year-over-year [5]. - The first quarter of 2025 is anticipated to show revenues of 61.788 billion CNY (up 17.90% year-over-year) and a net profit of 3.044 billion CNY (up 23.17% year-over-year) [6]. Business Segments - Revenue from various business segments in 2024 is expected to be as follows: Consumer Electronics 224.094 billion CNY (up 13.65% YoY), Computers 9.002 billion CNY (up 20.15% YoY), Automotive 13.758 billion CNY (up 48.69% YoY), and Communications 18.360 billion CNY (up 26.29% YoY) [6]. - The company is actively expanding its product layout from consumer electronics to a diversified range of components, modules, and accessories, including connectors, acoustic products, antennas, and wireless charging systems [7]. Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 16.140 billion CNY, 19.204 billion CNY, and 22.637 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14, 12, and 10 times [8]. - The company is also pursuing strategic acquisitions, such as the planned acquisition of the German automotive wiring harness manufacturer Leoni Group, which is expected to enhance product development and market expansion [7].